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Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?  
User currently offlineHalibut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9346 times:

Boeing had a great couple of days in Dubai , no doubt about that . But no one bought the passenger version of there recently launched 747-8 . What's up will that ?

Are airlines interested in Boeing's pax 747-8 ?

http://www.forbes.com/2005/11/22/boe...umbo-cx_cn_1122autofacescan03.html

Boeing's 747-8 family does include the 747-8 Intercontinental passenger airplane alongside the 747-8 Freighter airplane. Yet last week's orders from Cargolux, based in Luxembourg, and Japan-based Nippon Cargo Airlines, were for ten and eight 747-8 Freighters respectively, and Boeing has yet to ink any passenger jet deals.

Halibut

53 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEI747SYDNEY From Ireland, joined Oct 2005, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9297 times:

There will be customers.

Dont you worry...

There's BA and Eva Air to consider...

Rob  wave 



''Live life on the edge, Live each and every day like it's your last, Hell you only live once''
User currently offlineDeltaWings From Switzerland, joined Aug 2004, 1294 posts, RR: 17
Reply 2, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9247 times:

Quoting Halibut (Thread starter):
Are airlines interested in Boeing's pax 747-8 ?

Boeing even reported that pax orders for the 748 this year are highly unlikely.
Next year though, there will most likely be some orders by various Asian based airlines, like CX, JL, or even CA maybe.
The 748 is not that big of a risk for airlines that want to enter the VLA (very large aircraft) market, so that may generate orders by some unexpected airlines.

Lets hope it will be as successful, as the 744 has been.

DeltaWings



Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 3, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9148 times:

I really think the 748 is build and designed for BA. BA has made it clear over and over that they are unconfortable with the A380 until it proves itself, and until the market proves that it can sustain a plane the size of the A380. In addition with the new US/EU openskies agreement BA probably will try to increase their transatlantic flights to more cities across the United States for which it needs smaller planes ala the 787 rather then 747/777/380.

User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1307 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9122 times:

JL, ANA. Less certain KL and BA and probably in better times UA. Just my  twocents 


There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 9014 times:
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Yes there will be buyers. NH is probably unlikely (they seem to have hitched their wagon to the 773 and 773ER) and I imagine JL might do the same, as well (since they also operate the 773).

But the B747-8I program will be around as long as the 747-8F program is, and that should be a decade or more. Who knows how air travel loads will shake out. If it increases as much as Airbus believes it will, an A380-sized plane can't land everywhere, so by default airlines facing capacity issues will need to look at the B747-8I for those airports that cannot be served with an A388.


User currently offlineHalibut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8837 times:

The question I have is , can Boeing's 747-8 in any way hurt A380's sales . I am beginning to think not !

Would it be in Boeing's best interest to offer the 747-8 very low or even at a lost just to reduce a380 sales ?

Halibut


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 7, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8812 times:
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Quoting Halibut (Reply 6):
The question I have is, can Boeing's 747-8 in any way hurt A380's sales. I am beginning to think not!

In any way? Yes they will. Some airlines will buy B747-8Is to replace their 744s just because they now have a choice, where as before they had to downgauge to 773ERs/A346HGWs or upgauge to the A388.

In any "meaningful" way? As in hurting A380 sales so much that Airbus will be in trouble with the program? No, I do not believe they will. Airlines who have ordered the A388 didn't want 747s larger then the B747-8I, so I don't see them wanting the B747-8I over their existing or planned A380 orders.

Quote:
Would it be in Boeing's best interest to offer the 747-8 very low or even at a lost just to reduce A380 sales?

No, because if Boeing really has spent $4 billion (directly or indirectly) on the program, they cannot afford to give it away in an attempt to try and de-rail the A380 program. Even if they only spend $2 billion or less, it would only open them up to shareholder lawsuits to be so fiscally reckless.


User currently offlineAeroPiggot From United States of America, joined May 2005, 284 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8627 times:

Quote:
Stitch: Even if they only spend $2 billion or less, it would only open them up to shareholder lawsuits to be so fiscally reckless.

That is exactly right, people would be lining up to file lawsuits against Boeing management.



A scientist discovers that which exists, an engineer creates that which never was.
User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4769 posts, RR: 14
Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8599 times:
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Quoting EI747SYDNEY (Reply 1):
Eva Air

BR have already gone the 773ER way, CI would be a good bet though for passenger 747-8.


User currently offlineFlyingHippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 684 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 8495 times:

Quoting EI747SYDNEY (Reply 1):
There's BA and Eva Air to consider

BR is NOT going to order 747-8I!!! After their fleet replacement is done, 773ER will be their long range, largest capacity aircraft.


User currently offlineHalibut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8423 times:

Quoting AeroPiggot (Reply 8):

Quote:
Stitch: Even if they only spend $2 billion or less, it would only open them up to shareholder lawsuits to be so fiscally reckless.

That is exactly right, people would be lining up to file lawsuits against Boeing management.

Then I guess it wouldn't be in there best interest .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
But the B747-8I program will be around as long as the 747-8F program is, and that should be a decade or more.

Agreed ,
747-8F will be around for some time . From what I've read the 747-8F is a very impressive a/c .

Can the 747-8 pax verision be assembled in the line as the freighter ?

Halibut


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10038 posts, RR: 96
Reply 12, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8361 times:
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Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 2):
The 748 is not that big of a risk for airlines that want to enter the VLA (very large aircraft) market, so that may generate orders by some unexpected airlines.

I think this reason will cause some airlines to prefer the 748 over the A380 in the early years, until the technical risks associated with the A380 have worked their way out of the system.
As Stitch said, this might deflect some sales, but it's unlikely to harm the A380 programme in any major way.

Quoting Halibut (Reply 6):
Would it be in Boeing's best interest to offer the 747-8 very low or even at a lost just to reduce a380 sales ?

Definitely not! Because of a) the lower risk of the 748, and b) the fact that the 2 products don't compete DIRECTLY, Boeing should make the most of its margins, and forget about the A380.


User currently offlineOz777 From Australia, joined Jun 2000, 521 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8313 times:

Little bird tells me that a South Pacific based airline (who just happened to order the first B747-400) are keen to be first in the queue for the pax version.

Thinking is to look at 3 airframes plus three further options.

Watch this space!!

OZ777


User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9823 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8168 times:

I will join the ones who already mentioned the potential airlines for the 747-8. I also agree the 747-8 almost immediately reminded me of BA but also JL. These airlines are the most likely airlines to be the first to order the passenger version of the 747-8. I would also add CX to this list. Like others have already mentioned I think BA and CX still need to be convinced about the A380. But looking at LHR's situation I think BA will eventually order the A380 or a stretch version of the 747-8 if Boeing will offer this in the future. Other airlines I see as likely candidates are: KL/AF, CI, QF, UA and/or NW (in the very far future though).

A388


User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1596 posts, RR: 17
Reply 15, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8120 times:

Can I just say that if an airline that has A380 on order and decides to go for the 748 early next year... DOES NOT mean they will no longer need the A380. As for many "super-sized" airlines the 748 will compliment, let me say it again - compliment the A380... like brother and sister... a one big happy family... hard to imagine for some on here...

So who will buy the 748? I think most if not all current 744 owners are going to look at this bird. My guess would be a 40% retention rate. All others will opt for the A380 or downsize to the 773ER...

Just my 2 cents...

Cheers,

Ric



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9823 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8093 times:

Talking about the A380, does anyone know the status of the rumoured interest of SA for the A380? I haven't read anything about this in a long time.

A388


User currently offlineMarshalN From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2005, 1521 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8070 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 15):
Can I just say that if an airline that has A380 on order and decides to go for the 748 early next year... DOES NOT mean they will no longer need the A380. As for many "super-sized" airlines the 748 will compliment, let me say it again - compliment the A380... like brother and sister... a one big happy family... hard to imagine for some on here...

So who will buy the 748? I think most if not all current 744 owners are going to look at this bird. My guess would be a 40% retention rate. All others will opt for the A380 or downsize to the 773ER...

One of the few sensible posts about the A380 vs 747-8 I've seen on a.net

Well said  Smile. I wish most people wouldn't just blabber on and on about how the 747-8 will kill A380 sales, blah blah (and funny, the debate never seems to go the other way).


User currently offlineBG777300ER From Bulgaria, joined Mar 2005, 260 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7939 times:

Theres gotta be at least one right, come on, we have to see an actual 748 in real airline livery...SOMEONE ORDER ONE PEASE!!!


Koi mi sra v gashtite?
User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2956 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7901 times:

Quoting BG777300ER (Reply 18):
real airline livery

CV & KZ have more color than say AF. I have no problem with either airline livery. And except for you, nobody is worrying about if a pax airline ordering until next year (Boeing included). So long as the freighter orders come trickling in, pax order could be zero for a couple more years. After that Boeing has to worry.


Speaking of AF, I wonder if they will order a few down the road. They have a handful of 744/74Es that could see replacement early next decade. It's powered by GE not RR so there's a chance.


User currently offlineShenzhen From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 1710 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7871 times:

Well, one would think that it has a pretty good potential at Singapore, Qantas, BA, China Airlines, Cathay, United, and all the other small nich 747-400 operators.

I heard that Qantas aren't too pleased with how the A380 is going, as they have had to significantly reduce to seat count due the airframe weight issues and Airbus' stance that it could be recovered via a reduction in interior weight.
Qantas' problem is the seats they purchased aren't light, therefore they had to reduce the number.

If this is industry wide, then the 747-8 could garner a healthy share of the market.

I didn't notice any A380 orders are Dubai either????


User currently offlineSq212 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 272 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7835 times:

All operators that would need a capacity between 350 to 500 pax in one go are potential users of 748. Would like to see KE, JL, MH, PR, and a couple of Chinese operators going for this type aside from already mentioned candidates.

Like the chances of orders to show up next year.

Cheers


User currently offlineScotron11 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2004, 1178 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7811 times:

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 15):

So who will buy the 748? I think most if not all current 744 owners are going to look at this bird. My guess would be a 40% retention rate. All others will opt for the A380 or downsize to the 773ER..

Can't argue with that. There sure are tons of 744 operators out there, and with an 748 EIS of 2008/2009, plenty of them will need replacing.

I am still kinda "gobsmacked" at the low-key go-ahead announcement for the 748. After years, months and days of speculation, will they, won't they, they finally announced it. I really couldn't imagine the demise of the 747.


User currently offlineHalophila From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 646 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7745 times:

I'm hoping NZ and QF will buy at least a few frames. I agree with everyone here saying that any operator of the 744 might find it in their fleets at some stage of the game.

I can't wait until Dec 7th... My prediction: a mix of 787s to replace 767's, 773ERs to replace 743s, 777LR as a new a/c type to do US east coast (but maybe not europe on the nonstop/1-stop routing), and maybe if we're lucky, 748s to compliment their 388s on the high capacity long-haul routes.



Flown on 707, 717, 727, 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 741 742 743 744 74SP 757 753 762 763 772 773 77W D10 DC9 M11 M80 M87
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 24, posted (8 years 10 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7675 times:

Quoting Halophila (Reply 23):
and maybe if we're lucky, 748s to compliment their 388s on the high capacity long-haul routes.

If the decision is due december 7th, you can rule out an order for the 748 from QF in the near future, if Allan Mulally's comment in this article is correct.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...s+-+special+report+on+the+new.html

The passenger version, stretched by only 3.6m and dubbed the “Intercontinental”, will follow but has yet to attract a launch operator, a situation that Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and chief executive Alan Mulally expects to be rectified “next year”. It will accommodate around 34 more passengers in a typical three-class layout and fly around 1,570km (850nm) further than today’s -400.



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25 Post contains images Astuteman : I heard.........from NAV20 Ah, bulk buying power! No wonder EK bought 43 - they get the lightweight A388's that they can put 650 seats in....
26 Post contains images Shenzhen : So, whats your point? I haven't heard anything about Emirates, just Qantas. Take if for what its worth, someone in the industry sharing what they hav
27 Post contains links and images Halibut : From Manni's link : http://www.flightinternational.com/A...s+-+special+report+on+the+new.html He claims that the –8 will offer 8% lower seat-kilomet
28 Piercey : You guys are surprise at no orders? I'm not! How many potential customers have we listed have either: a: financial problems b: have ordered an A380 an
29 Post contains images Astuteman : You're probably right Shenzen. Those of us who aren't "in the industry" don't have anything worthwhile to contribute to aviation forums, do we? Maybe
30 DistantHorizon : That is called "dumping", and is illegal - in the States and in the EU. DH
31 Tockeyhockey : i think it's pretty clear that the 748 will become a mainstay of several US carriers, most notably UA and NW (if they can survive bankruptcy). there i
32 Bobnwa : In your opinion which US passenger carriers other than UA and NW will get the 748?
33 Piercey : US and DL won't touch them with a mile long stick. AA only if they can run a lot of frequencies and can compliment 777, but I doubt it CO I can actua
34 Baw716 : Greetings all, While it is correct that there have not been any orders for the passenger version of the aircraft, there will be some orders, eventuall
35 Post contains images Morvious : Is there a combo availible for the 747-800? If there will be, KL will be a future customer. Same amount of pax, but a little more cargo seems to do it
36 Astuteman : You're absolutely right, but who's questioning the A380's ability to exceed 7000 miles?
37 Post contains images Kiwiandrew : somebody posted last week in one of the other threads on the 747-8 that there are new regulations coming in for combis and that KL might not be able
38 CHI787ORD : AI will have to replace their large but aging 747 fleet soon. Unless they are using the T7s to replace them (doesnt seem like it), there could be anot
39 Shenzhen : Why are you miss quoting? I guess you couldn't search your answer. Cheers
40 Prebennorholm : There is in reality only one 748. But the pax version has the long upper deck hump of the -300/400 while the F version has the short hump of the -100
41 Post contains images Aloha717200 : Northwest will order them to replace their DC-9s. But seriously, I expect there will be a few orders. I wouldn't be surprised if a few A380 operators
42 Post contains images Manni : Sorry for being curious, but could you share with us what you believe will happen to the A380?
43 Shenzhen : Flight International now has a list of potential 747-800 customers. Cheers
44 Oz777 : One of the design issues with the B747-8 is the ability of the aircraft (in pax version) to fit at existing gates. When you consider that the freight
45 Zvezda : Are you predicting 40% of operators or 40% of airframes?
46 Cloudy : If I remember correctly, there will not be that much "new composite" construction in the 747-8. The main improvement will come from the engines. Boie
47 Co7772wuh : CO's asia stategy certainly looks impressive & even better if they get Shanghai in 06' ? However , I just do not see them going for the 747-8 . Boein
48 Post contains images LifelinerOne : I think KLM won't be one of the airlines who will order the B747-800. KLM only flies like 5 full pax B747-400's and those aren't even full for most o
49 Art : If the a.net Aircraft Data figures are right, the range is 8000 miles. No way would it have gone down 1000 miles. If anything, the "performance bette
50 AJRfromSYR : I would assume he meant operators.
51 Piercey : Think about it though. 748s take Europe/ high density Asia, 787 lower density areas (TLV) and super long range routes (DXB?) and 777s fill in the bla
52 Astuteman : Don't forget, Art both SQ and QF are "concerned" (apparrently) about its ability to carry the specified payload over that range. Of course, concern i
53 Ken777 : There is no need to rush an order for the 747-8. Look at the 787 and 380 orders where there was a rush to order to ensure launch customer discounts AN
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