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737 Replacement - Can It Replace 717 And 752  
User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2780 posts, RR: 2
Posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5316 times:

Assuming that Boeing's next big project after the 787 and 747-8 will be a replacement of the 737, is it possible to create a single-aisle family of aircraft that could compete competitively, economically, and efficiently in a size range from the 717 or E190 size all the way to the 757-200?

I know the A320 family tries to do that but it seems that the A318 (and 737-600) from what I have learned on A-Net, can't compete economically with the E-190 and the A321 (and 737-900) don't stand up to the 757-200.

Is this asking too much for one family of aircraft?

36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5308 times:

The B737 replacement will almost certainly replace the B757-200 and perhaps even the B757-300. It is not likely to replace the B717, as Boeing are likely to cede this market to Bombardier and Embraer.

User currently offlineMauriceB From Netherlands, joined Aug 2004, 2491 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5294 times:

well first of all airbus doesnt do that any more than boeing... A318/737-600 A321/737-900


second , i dont think its possible to do that without significant loss of capability loss when you strecht the plane , or just downsize it.

you see that the 737-600 and A318 perform bad in theire segment because planes like EMB190/717(actually also a bit to heavy)/CRJ-900 are made for those tasks... but theire bigger brothers like A319/A320 737-700/800 perform excellent in those segments because they were made for it.. also you see some loss of performans on the 737-900 A321 , were the 757 is doing well (note that the 757 was introduced way earlier) because the frame is made for the performanses it gives....


also one aircraft family for a segment between the 100 and 220 seats is really a lot of difference . (note that the biggest version would be 120% bigger than the smallest version)


User currently offlineBoeing Nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5275 times:

There is already speculation that the 737 replacement will have several versions. A "light" version that would replace the -600 and -700 with compomperable range. A medium version to replace the -800 and -900 series.
And finally a heavy version to replace the 752 and 753.

All models would have the same fuselage cross section but different wings.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 4, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5253 times:

Quoting Boeing Nut (Reply 3):
There is already speculation that the 737 replacement will have several versions. A "light" version that would replace the -600 and -700 with compomperable range. A medium version to replace the -800 and -900 series.
And finally a heavy version to replace the 752 and 753.

All models would have the same fuselage cross section but different wings.

Wings are expensive to develop. I expect there will be two different wings, not three.


User currently offlineBoeing Nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5229 times:

I agree. I heard there will be different wings, but not one dedicated for each one. I suspect the "light" will have it's own while the medium and heavy will share.

User currently offline1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6651 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 5165 times:

Isn't the 787-3 marketed to replace the 757-300?


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User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9835 posts, RR: 52
Reply 7, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 5150 times:

Quoting United787 (Thread starter):
Is this asking too much for one family of aircraft?

It is asking too much from one wing which is why the A321 and A318 as well as the 736 and 739 struggle to attract big sales. A 737 replacement will need two different wings to fully replace the Boeing narrowbody line up. Boeing did this when they developed the 757 and 767 and are doing again by offering two wings for the 787. I would expect a smaller wing to replace the 736/73G/738 and another one to replace the 739/752.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 5111 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The B737 replacement will almost certainly replace the B757-200 and perhaps even the B757-300. It is not likely to replace the B717, as Boeing are likely to cede this market to Bombardier and Embraer.

IMO, I wouldn't be that sure. When Boeing last spoke a few words of a Y1-type aircraft in 2004, Mullay indicated everything from 90-220 seats could be possible. All has been silent on the 737NG replacement front, but Boeing has since patented a 90-seat aircraft configuration.

I don't think Boeing has ruled out anything yet...

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 6):
Isn't the 787-3 marketed to replace the 757-300?

The 787-3 is bigger than the 753.


User currently offlineDeltaWings From Switzerland, joined Aug 2004, 1294 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5087 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The B737 replacement will almost certainly replace the B757-200 and perhaps even the B757-300. It is not likely to replace the B717, as Boeing are likely to cede this market to Bombardier and Embraer.

The 737 replacement will not replace the 753. You couldn't stretch the fuselage, so it could replace the 736 to the 753.
The 753 will be replaced by a shorter 787. This shorter 787 (787-7) will therefore also directly replace the 762, and therefore also the 753. (762 and 753 is exactly the same size)



Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
User currently offlineLemurs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1439 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5070 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 8):
The 787-3 is bigger than the 753.

The 787-800 isn't though. If I am not mistaken a typical 2-class layout would be roughly the same capacity as the 753, with maybe some more F class seats. It would also have shorter turn time due to the extra aisles. Makes you wonder if Boeing would consider a heavy duty, high cycle version of the 788 before the Y1 project would make it's debut at the high end of the seating charts. (The longest stretches have typically taken Boeing 5-10 years or longer to debut.) They've done this for the 747 after all, and I'm sure the domestic carriers who use 762's and like the low operating costs of the 753's would be very excited by this idea.



There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21590 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5050 times:

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 2):
second , i dont think its possible to do that without significant loss of capability loss when you strecht the plane , or just downsize it.

boeing is not interested in making a plane as big as the 753 directly because customers are not interested in buying it in large numbers. It's turned out that it is best used by charter and LCC type airlines, but the length makes it a bear to board quickly, even from door 2.

Boeing is also not rushing to offer a 735/6 sized aircraft, as sales for the 736 have been horrible.

This still leaves 4 sizes.

733/G, 738, 739/752-, 752+. I say that because they could introduce a plane between the 752 and 739ER and one slightly larger than the 752 and hit a much sweeter spot in the market. Seat ranges (1-class) 149, 179, 199, 239. And offering the top 3 with door2 entry ability and with ER wings, and the botton 3 with short haul wings, you end up with 6 models that cover the planes in the heart of the 737NG/757 sales.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
Wings are expensive to develop. I expect there will be two different wings, not three.

Similar to the 757/767 program, but with only one fuselage. 2 wings, two ranges (+ER)



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineBWIA 772 From Barbados, joined May 2002, 2200 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5033 times:

When do you think that this new 737 will be announced and when will it enter service between 10 and 15 years seem ok or not.


Eagles Soar!
User currently offline1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6651 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5019 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 11):
Similar to the 757/767 program, but with only one fuselage. 2 wings, two ranges (+ER)

I think that the fuselage should be a widebody. Blended winglets should be standard on all models.



The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5004 times:

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 10):
The 787-800 isn't though.

The 787-3 and -8 have an identical fuselage. The -8 is simply a 3-class international configuration while the -3 is a 2-class domestic configuration.

Remember that both the 787-3/8 are noticably larger than the 767-300.

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 10):
If I am not mistaken a typical 2-class layout would be roughly the same capacity as the 753, with maybe some more F class seats.

No, the 787-3 would have around 50 additional economy seats, even using 2+4+2 seats that are way bigger than 757 seats. Using 757 seats (3+3+3), you could pack an extra 100 economy seats from the 753:

787-3 = 20/276 (36" F/32" Y)
757-300 = 12/231 (F/Y)
757-300 = 276 (All Y)

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 10):
Makes you wonder if Boeing would consider a heavy duty, high cycle version of the 788 before the Y1 project would make it's debut at the high end of the seating charts.

I don't understand. If you are using an aircraft on high-cycle routes, the routes are inherently short, thus the 787-3 is adequet. I'm sure the 787-8 is fully capable of being "misused" on shorter routes as many airlines do with todays long-haul aircraft.

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 10):
They've done this for the 747 after all, and I'm sure the domestic carriers who use 762's and like the low operating costs of the 753's would be very excited by this idea.

There are very few 762 in the U.S. domestic market any more. UA and AA have both retired theirs. CO only uses their 762ER internationally, leaving DL.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 15, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 4965 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 6):
Isn't the 787-3 marketed to replace the 757-300?

The B787-3, and B787-8 which is the same size, are much larger than the B757-300.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7):
Boeing did this when they developed the 757 and 767 and are doing again by offering two wings for the 787.

The B787s all have the same wing. Only the wingtips are different.

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 9):
The 753 will be replaced by a shorter 787.

Most unlikely. Both Airbus and Boeing have learned that shrinks are not economical.


User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 56
Reply 16, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 4952 times:

The 737NG replacement will cover the market 125-225 seat market (typical 2 class configuration).......meaning everything from the 737-700 to the 757-200. Four fuselage lengths are expected with two different wings. The maximum range is likely to be in the 4000 mile range, but certain variants will be more optimized for shorter haul services (like the 787-3 variant).

As pointed out above, the 753 will be indirectly replaced by the 787-3 - while its true that the 787-3 is larger than the 753, it will cover the same types of missions for which the 753 was intended. The 753 was not a big seller (it came to the market too late, just at the wrong time) since it could not find a market, although its one hell of an aircraft and its economics are superb.

Its unlikely that Boeing will offer a 100-110 seat version of the 737NG replacement......the 736 is a variant that has had trouble finding its marketplace since airlines are not very interested in flying the long thins routes for which it is omptimized (A318 sales have also been less than stellar) and many of the routes once flown by 732/735 sized aircraft are now handled by regional jets and the new generation of smaller airliners (such as the E170 family) with far better operating economics.

This will be a hugely important program for Boeing - this new family will cover Boeing's entire single aisle product lineup and will hopefully result in a huge number of sales. Look for the new airliner to incorporate all of the lessons learned and technology developed for the 787 aircraft and then some, with a huge emphasis on superior economics, commonality and the enviornment.


User currently offlineMidnightMike From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 2892 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 4941 times:

Quoting United787 (Thread starter):
Assuming that Boeing's next big project after the 787 and 747-8 will be a replacement of the 737, is it possible to create a single-aisle family of aircraft that could compete competitively, economically, and efficiently in a size range from the 717 or E190 size all the way to the 757-200?

Boeing mentioned that a future 737 design will come in several different sizes, if the 787 preview is a preview to what a future 737 could look like, then yes.

If the 737 comes in several different sizes, with the smaller 737 replacing the 717 and if they can improve economics maybe even start invading the RJ aircraft.

Just my guess that the smaller 737 would have a different wing and would be a true small jet, rather than a shrunk design.

Looking at the future, both Airbus & Boeing are going to try get the market back that the RJ type aircraft took from them.....



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User currently offlineSiromega From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 735 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 4882 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 14):
There are very few 762 in the U.S. domestic market any more. UA and AA have both retired theirs. CO only uses their 762ER internationally, leaving DL.

And in a week (starting Dec 1) DL wont have their 762 in service at all anymore.

I still think the new A/Cs will be in a 2+2+2 config or a 3+3 with a 1.5 or 1.75x isle width so deplaning/enplaning is quicker (especially on the larger 150+ seat a/c). NW and other LCCs want quicker turns - the planes dont make money just sitting on the ground.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 19, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 4856 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 14):
The 787-3 and -8 have an identical fuselage. The -8 is simply a 3-class international configuration while the -3 is a 2-class domestic configuration.

Well the fuselage is bit stronger for the -8, isn't it?

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The B737 replacement will almost certainly replace the B757-200 and perhaps even the B757-300. It is not likely to replace the B717, as Boeing are likely to cede this market to Bombardier and Embraer.



Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 16):
Its unlikely that Boeing will offer a 100-110 seat version of the 737NG replacement......the 736 is a variant that has had trouble finding its marketplace since airlines are not very interested in flying the long thins routes for which it is omptimized (A318 sales have also been less than stellar) and many of the routes once flown by 732/735 sized aircraft are now handled by regional jets and the new generation of smaller airliners (such as the E170 family) with far better operating economics.

I believe there was off the record but official speculation of the successor narrowbody being offered in 2 to 3 fuselage widths. I took this to mean that different configurations were being considered (some combination of 2+3, 3+3, 3+wideaisle+3 or even 2+2+2).

I don't know how much sense it makes to cede the market to B&E. That doesn't mean that Boeing would manufacture in the US, but Boeing getting the profits for selling these 100 seaters into US market is better than someone else getting the profits and using that to jump start a drive into ever larger jets.



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User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4744 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 11):
Boeing is also not rushing to offer a 735/6 sized aircraft, as sales for the 736 have been horrible.

Hasn't sales been horrible because the economics are bad, not because there isn't a market for that size aircraft?


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 21, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4735 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 19):
Well the fuselage is bit stronger for the -8, isn't it?

They have different layers of tape (the -3 having fewer), but the fuselage size and floor area are identical.


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 22, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4726 times:

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 9):
You couldn't stretch the fuselage, so it could replace the 736 to the 753.

Schuur you could... the benefits of composites include the ability to provide fuselage configurations previously impossible due to structural strain.

I hear tell that if the wing could support it, they could easily stretch the 787 to A340-600 proportions. Clearly, the A340 already stretches a greater percentage from A340-200 to A340-600 than the 737 would from -600 to 757-300.

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 10):
The 787-800 isn't though.

Don't be confused... they're precisely the same length and same cabin area.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 19):
Well the fuselage is bit stronger for the -8, isn't it?

Indeed you're quite correct.

N


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21590 posts, RR: 59
Reply 23, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4698 times:

Quoting United787 (Reply 20):
Hasn't sales been horrible because the economics are bad, not because there isn't a market for that size aircraft?

Yes, but that's the point. To make a plane that could compete all the way from 130-280 1-class seats would mean that the smallest would also likely be the least economical.

While the original 737-100 then the 737-500 were based on a wing optimized for it, and the 732/3/4 were stretches of it, the new wing of the 737NG was optimized for the 73G/738, and the 736 and 739 were bonus models, one that was too high in cost and the other that was short it range and 1-class capacity.

One can expect that even with 2 wings, the smaller wing would be optimized for the 73G/738 sized aircraft and the second wing for the 739/752 aircraft, though a longhaul 738 would also be an option based on the changing secondary non-stop markets being pioneered today.

Imagine US-EU routes where a 752 size aircraft can run during the summer but a 738 sized aircraft runs it in the winter when capacity is less important, yet still be profitable.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 24, posted (9 years 1 month 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4676 times:

Quoting United787 (Reply 20):
Hasn't sales been horrible because the economics are bad, not because there isn't a market for that size aircraft?

In regards to Reply 23, one prospect of composite is that it broadens this "sweet spot" of performance, perhaps allowing peripheral variants to be more economical. The 787-3/8/9 is likely just the tip of the iceberg in terms of flexible production.


25 AbirdA : Not to get off topic, but everyone seems to be spouting inaccuracies regarding various 787 specifications. Get your facts straight, folks! I believe t
26 Zvezda : Certainly true, though the landing gear limits the B787's MTOW before the wing does. Sorry, no. The B787-8 has more layers than the B787-3 to accommo
27 SthPacific787 : Now you're talking. Boeing of course have patented the concept/basic design of a 'narrow wide-body' surely for this reason. Quicker turnarounds, no m
28 Zvezda : One of the nice features of the composite fuselage is that it doesn't need to be exactly circular to be structurally efficient. I expect the B737/B75
29 SthPacific787 : You are probably right Zvezda. But I guess I'm rooting for something different just for it to be different. 3-3 is the same old. Never let practicali
30 Post contains images Zvezda : That's why A.net pays me the big money!
31 Post contains images SthPacific787 : PROBABLY right. Hope you're not though. If so, does A.net get their monopoly money back?
32 Ckfred : I would hate to see Boeing cede the 100-seat plane market to the CRJs and the E190s, especially since the 737 was initially designed as a 100-seat air
33 Grantcv : I can't imagine how the overhead bins can be made to work on a 2+2+2 aisle aircraft. It seems the need is to go to bigger bins as carry-ons have grow
34 Zvezda : Grantcv, I didn't write that. SthPacific787 did in reply 27. You clicked the wrong "Quote Selected Text" button.
35 Post contains images SthPacific787 : Zvezda, you didn't write it but you agree with it, right
36 EnviroTO : Patents are out of control. When is it going to stop? Soon a group of 20 boyscouts won't be able to sit around the campfire because someone patents a
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