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AC's Future At YUL  
User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 4952 posts, RR: 51
Posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 2490 times:

One thing is for sure, that AC will control whatever the future holds for yul. Over the past 3 years, do not forget that almost every new transborder route seems to fly to a United hub.

I.e (yul-iad, yul-sfo, yul-den)..with the sole exception being yul-phl....However we are now out of UA hubs....However the New DL / AC agreement may see a yul-dfw or a yul-atl sooner or later...

Internationally, Montreal should see Copenhagen, Milan and Rome. As Air Canada has listen international destinations they want to (or so) intend to fly. Brussels, Beyrut and Lisbon should be nothing out of the ordinary to a yul market. (DOES ANYBODY REMEMBER YMX-BRU in 1996?? Air Canada 956 I think!) However given that there are 0 empty Air Canada domestic / international gates at 5p until 8p, it is unlikely to see much activity until we see major expansion....ADM has to get off their asses!

Now, what do you think?...What does AC have in stores for us after messing with our heads for the longest time. Is Milton blabbing his big mouth or does he solely want a sollliidddd YYZ??

12 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineMikeYEG From Canada, joined May 2000, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 2365 times:

Unless ADM does something, and soon, AC is going to operate those flights from YYZ.

And with the fantastic new mega-terminal coming up at Pearson (T-New), replacing both Terminals 1 and 2, does anyone else see the future of the Dorval hub in jeopardy? Not only are they geographically too close together for maximizing connecting opportunities, ADM is doing nothing while conditions at YUL get worse and worse, while GTAA is building the largest passenger terminal in Canada, and they're practically giving it all to AC. Not to mention that YYZ is better situated for connections to the US, has connections to Atlantic Canada, and, if the YUL hub shuts down, Montreal and all of Quebec. Not to mention that YYZ is Canada's largest business center with the highest metro population in the country.

Thoughts on this?


User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 4952 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 2362 times:

Well lets not forget that ADM is building an expansion that would make YMQ proud. Ok maybe we cant compare to YYZ, but you cannot operate all your flights from there. Montreal will continue to grow in proportion to YYZ....(i.e if AC in toronto grows 15%, yul will probably also do likewise)!!

Montreal has a market of 3.3million people, the 2nd businesscentre of Canada, the 1st in tourism and the only International City in Canada...I would say Montreal has a lot of potential. And IF THE YYZmega termianl is fineand dandy, the number of gates offered to all airlines is not that much bigger than now with the 3 terminals. AC must also give up slots to other airlines...

ADM has to get off their asses now!! (MIKEYEG, do you think that yyz can support a yyz-beyrut flight with little or no lebanese origin in YYZ while much at YUL)!





User currently offlineMikeYEG From Canada, joined May 2000, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 2361 times:

I wasn't undermining Montreal's position as an O/D market, but as a connection center it's not much compared to YYZ. (Hey all the people filling the planes from YYZ to YUL have to be going for a reason, right?   ) Montreal is a great place, with a lot of O/D growth. However, in this industry nowadays, hub-and-spoke rules. Why fill a YUL-YYC flight 65% full and have a YYZ-YYC flight go out 65% full, when you can upguage the equipment and fly a full plane with pax connecting in from YUL?

Just a thought.

No offense intended.

MikeYEG


User currently offlineAC183 From Canada, joined Jul 1999, 1532 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2345 times:

The 2nd businesscentre of Canada? Actually Calgary has more corporate head offices than Montreal.

I do believe Milton is serious at making YUL a secondary hub, I don't think there's much choice for them, there's so many people in the Montreal area that if he doesn't serve it, somebody else gladly will, and he'll lose a large amount of the potential traffic. Trouble is there aren't aircraft to do it all right now, and facilities need work.

I think YUL has to reinforce some connecting feed before it looks to hub to long haul international flights. Places like Edmonton need more flights to make it reasonable to connect at YUL, and YUL needs feed from any of various mid sized cities in the US. These are what drove YYZ's success, and YUL needs a lot more of those RJ feeders from the US. Also, YUL needs Air Canada routes to cities a little further away like New Orleans, Pheonix, Mexico City, and so on. Focusing on them will drive up connecting traffic enough to make Copenhagen or Zurich come, which will then make it possible to add several more European cities.


User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 4952 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2328 times:

Now that Montreal is in a economic recovery stage, its payed dividends to the airport community proving last year that we were the FASTEST GROWING CANADIAN AIRPORT!!!!

Now with proper creative growth, Air Canada can make miracles out of yul. It already has considering that each FRA and TLV flight is constantly full. This couldnt of happened at Mirabel. And when they tried, they failed miserably.



User currently offlineYBG From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2328 times:

Calgary 2nd business city in Canada?? Corporations that have their head office in Montréal have a bigger net worth than the ones in Toronto. So Calgary...Why do you think NASDAQ is establishing itself in Montréal? This CDNX thing is already a living death, going back to what it used to be and what it should be: solely a small regional stock market dedicated to local oil & mining companies.

However AC183, I agree 100% with the remaining of your post. The YUL North American network has to be reinforce before really expanding internationaly. Does Milton really want it? That is THE question. Milton is showing some positive signs but we'll really know with next year schedule I guess. Then we'll see if this +17% cap. increase this year is really a trend or just a momentary burst.

But like you said flyyul, ADM has to get their act together. They're not exactly a living example of dynamism and initiative at the moment. The YUL expansion plan is progressing at the speed of a snail.


User currently offlineAC183 From Canada, joined Jul 1999, 1532 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2322 times:

I would question whether new growth is driving YUL, or is it growth that should have happened years ago? Also, I feel that if Quebecers want to see continued growth, they will need more political stability. I place a LOT of the blame for Quebec's stagnant economy in the past years as being due to the 1995 referendum, and if the PQ tries something like that again all sorts of investment will be scared away again  

To argue the point on the business centre, I (like many others) question whether the Quebec government won, or did they buy the NASDAQ at Montreal? Anyways, everything I've heard in the last few years has been that Montreal lost its dominance in business many years ago, and Vancouver and Calgary have been duelling for second place in recent years. The fact remains that companies like CPRail moved away from Montreal to Calgary...

I honestly think Milton wants the growth, but if the PQ stirs up another mess, he'll think twice about expansion. Also, fleet capacity limitations are there, it will be at least 1 or 2 years before aircraft will be available for a large expansion. If these rumours of AirSprint starting up and operating as an AC feeder are true, that would be ideal for the first stage of growing Montreal traffic.


User currently offlineSamurai 777 From Canada, joined Jan 2000, 2458 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2321 times:

Milton does have plans to make YUL a secondary hub. That's so long as the PQ doesn't make a fool of itself, scaring investors away from Quebec, as others have said in earlier threads. YUL would have to get its expansion going faster and inmprove the rest of itself if it wants to become a secondary hub.

Since Montreal is Canada's second largest metro area, it should've had the third or even second largest airport in Canada by now, somewhere between 15-18 million passengers per year. But Montreal ended up losing its status as the largest econmic center to Toronto, and also there was the fact that Quebec had threatened to secede in the past during the '60s, '70s and most recently with the 1995 referendum. Another referendum is unlikely now in the near future, because PQ knows that it'd damage Quebec's economic reputation further and also for a lot of other political reasons.

And then there's the curse of Mirabel(YMX). This was a result of bad planning in a sense, as YMX is about 45 km away from downtown Montreal. This meant that a lot of airlines found it silly to fly into an airport that far from Montreal, where Dorval had a lot of good facilities and was closer to Montreal. Passengers voiced the same concerns, too. At first, YMX looked promising, but airlines gradually pulled out of YMX, opting for either YUL - and YYZ. So now Mirabel today handles only 1.3 million passengers a year instead of the 15 million it was supposed to be designed for. These days, only charters like Air Transat and general aviation a/c, and small scheduled airlines usually fly into Mirabel. Talk about a huge white elephant!

These are the figures as of 1999 in passengers per year, rounded off to the nearest 100,000.

YYZ - 27.8 million
YVR - 16.0 million
YUL - 8.3 million
YYC - 7.8 million

You can see how far down YUL is. YYC isn't very far behind! Not bad for Calgary - a city with the 2nd largest number of head offices after Toronto, and a population of 870,000. YVR is a major destination in the Pacific Rimand has a large Asian population and strong business links to Asia, and thus serves a lot of Asian flights. Calgary's economy is growing rapidly. Vancouver, with 2 million people also had a booming economy until the Asian crisis hit in '97, but it's recovering now.


User currently offlineYMQ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2312 times:

Sorry if this is unrelated to aviation but it is the National Post -hardly PQ supporters- that published a study that showed that Montreal has more head offices of corporations than Toronto. Toronto has, however, a large advantage in the finance sector. The latest issue of Wired mag. also places Montreal in the leading cities of the new economy which explains why NASDAQ chose Montreal. Again about NASDAQ, why is it that when Toronto was trying to attract them it was a good thing, but it is now a separatist conspiracy when they decide to go to Montreal?
You should really continue talking about aviation and not venture in the muddy waters of any other topics when all you knowledge stems from what you read in the Calgary Sun.
Sorry again for this non-aviation post.
Hugs and kisses
YMQ


User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 4952 posts, RR: 51
Reply 10, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 2312 times:

Now that we have found ourselves back into discussing the future of AC at yul   .... what do you believe are the routes we will see!

Without fantasizing and believing in the recent trends of aviation, we may see AC attempt Copenhagen. I believe we will see double paris, copenhagen, increased FRankfurt and maybe a flight to milan.......Again there is no space at AIR CANADA GATES!!

To transborder sections, we may see AC attempt to crack a flight or two the Carolinas. Since YYZ and YOW have flights to RDU(raleigh-durham), this may look like its our turn. But remember that thiswil feature nothing but a nice F28  
A daily flight to Fort Lauderdale maybe, but what else can you think of.

There is no way that you will Air Canada fly to a non-star alliance hub with an aircraft larger than A319. Meaning Seattle, Houston and etc are out of the picture. Maybe with the new DL / AC code-share agreement, we might see AC fly to CVG,DFW or YUL.

How about seeing a DC9 or type to BOSTON, SHeesh!

After that, we need to see major capacity increases to YVR,YYC, and YEG. Its funny butyou cannot find one discounted seat to these destinations for the entire summer without connecting in YYZ   4flighs to YVR, 3 to YYC and 1 to YEG is not enough.

WHAT ARE YOUR OPINIONS?
Have a good week,
YUL


User currently offlineAC183 From Canada, joined Jul 1999, 1532 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (13 years 10 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 2308 times:

Calgary Sun- yikes! Never touch that crap... the Globe&Mail or CBC are much better sources. And while there are many reasons NASDAQ may have chosen Montreal, I have a hard time believing the government didn't have some substantial "incentives." BTW, I read editorials on that from the Montreal Gazette. But that's still drifting from flight related topics...

Of interest in this discussion perhaps we could also note that CP was going to add a third YWG-YUL flight, and it was in the reservation systems, but then they had to cut it due to aircraft shortages when they put more capacity back on other domestic routes. Perhaps additional YEG and YWG flights to YUL are feasible in the near future, as well as YYC and YVR.

Actually, I want to also mention that London and Windsor flights would be good candidates to switch to CRJ's, which would increase the attractiveness of YUL for connections to those Ontario communities as well. On a little less likely idea, how about Thunder Bay on RJ's to both Ottawa and Montreal? One daily flight would be a start for each route.

I challenge the assumption that AC would only go to alliance hubs. As long as a city provides enough origin & destination traffic it would be feasible to see a YUL flight. New Orleans is one within my imagination for the next 5 years. Actually, the way AC has been guarding its YYZ hub, I would suggest that perhaps routes like YUL-MSP or YUL-DTW might happen as AC looks to protect its YUL turf.


User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 4952 posts, RR: 51
Reply 12, posted (13 years 10 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2296 times:

What routes do you think will be implemented to YUL??

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