The recovery which both Airbus and Boeing have experienced in 2005 is in my view built on fragile foundations.

Airline shares are at the nearest to their lows as continued excess capacity has prevented them from improving profitability. On the other hand Boeing and Airbus shares are at record highs. Surely this is illogical.

According to the financial press, low interest rates and private rquity have allowed certain carriers to buy new planes but beware, interest rates are rising.

All of this begs the question as to whether this will lead to the deferral of many of this year's over-optimistic orders.

Does anyone know which airline orders have the highest probability of being deferred?

Which manufacturer will suffer the most?