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Is F9 Doomed?  
User currently offlineAzstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 623 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7975 times:

With the addition of WN and additional UA flights throught DEN as part of DEN Airport agreement, plus the inability to acquire new gates without investing millions and millions of dollars, is this the beginning of the end for F9?

76 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12118 posts, RR: 49
Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7961 times:
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Please I think you are counting them out in advance. First of all lets see if UA actually does what they are saying, and WN and F9 each have there own clients.


You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineFlyGuyClt From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 537 posts, RR: 8
Reply 2, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7913 times:

Dude, you had better duck. There is going to be a fire ball comming from New Zealand anytime now.

F9 has a great product. Lets just see how much marketing they have. People like them and they have a loyal customer base.

Safe Flying  Smile



Florida Express, Braniff II and ......
User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7884 times:

I have found F9 to be very competative from SEA to many places beyond DIA like DC and Orlando. WN is great for flights around the west but they seem to cater to the shorter flights with non and 1 stops.

I suspect they will be able to coexist with WN and still beat up UA pretty well. Yes, it can be said that WN entering Denver makes that market more competative, but they will do just fine.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13250 posts, RR: 100
Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7781 times:
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Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 2):
Dude, you had better duck. There is going to be a fire ball comming from New Zealand anytime now.

 rotfl 

I plan to come back and see how Mariner fires with both barrels.

F9 will do fine. WN will have a tough time in '06 with their slightly higher cost hedges. (Ok, I'm floored by how brilliant/lucky a bet that turned out to be.)

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineAzstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7731 times:

They have been struggling with profitability for several years, their stock has tanked, they have high airport costs, and they've borrowed heavily to increase their available cash. In this competetive world, the leisure customers that F9 depends upon are only loyal to the extent that no one else has a lower fare. I wish them well, but I'm not overly optimistic about their success.

User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12118 posts, RR: 49
Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7707 times:
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Quoting Azstar (Reply 5):
They have been struggling with profitability for several years, their stock has tanked, they have high airport costs, and they've borrowed heavily to increase their available cash. In this competetive world, the leisure customers that F9 depends upon are only loyal to the extent that no one else has a lower fare. I wish them well, but I'm not overly optimistic about their success.

I think you should recheck your facts.



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineAzstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7685 times:

Last month stock was 13.65. Now it's around 8.27. They just sold $92M worth of debentures to raise operating cash. Summer quarter profitable this year. Annual loss past two years.

User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12118 posts, RR: 49
Reply 8, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7646 times:
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Quoting Azstar (Reply 7):
Last month stock was 13.65. Now it's around 8.27.

Show me an airline stock that is actually up in price.

I'll let mariner finish this up. It will be fun to sit back and watch the fireworks.



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7553 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7612 times:

I think the airline that is going to have the most trouble is Southwest. I think UA, F9 will take care of them pretty well, im predicting a WN fallout in DEN.


"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineSLCPilot From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 589 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7577 times:

Luv2fly,

OO. 52 week low, ~$16.50, now $29.50.

Case closed.

SLCPilot



I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
User currently offlineAzstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7560 times:

I fly F9 a lot because I live in a city that doesn't have many nonstop flights to my destinations, and I think DEN airport is the best airport, along with CVG, for connecting passengers. I've seen the good and the bad about this airline and I think my observations are generally accurate.

User currently offlineNosedive From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7513 times:

Quoting Azstar (Reply 11):
I've seen the good and the bad about this airline and I think my observations are generally accurate.

Based on what? WN's 2 gates at DEN and TED?!


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13640 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7508 times:
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Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 8):
Show me an airline stock that is actually up in price.

ALK : Alaska Air Group



1yr chart - 52 week low: 25.55
52 week high: 37.86

Last trade: 37.26



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25737 posts, RR: 50
Reply 14, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7416 times:

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 8):
Show me an airline stock that is actually up in price.

Actually airline stocks are doing great at the moment, with many at their 52 weeks highs currently.

American - 52week range 7.83-19.54 currently 19.63
Continental - 8.50-17.88, current 17.61
Airtran - 7.40-16.70, current 16.57
Southwest - 13.05 - 16.75 , current 16.57
Mesa - 4.99-12.06, current 10.19
Fedex - 76.81-101.87, current 98.60
British - 42.68-58.58, current 59.00

I can list even more, but you get the point.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12118 posts, RR: 49
Reply 15, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7347 times:
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Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 10):
Luv2fly,

OO. 52 week low, ~$16.50, now $29.50.

Case closed.

SLCPilot

I was talking about major carriers and not a commuter carrier.



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13640 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7276 times:
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Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 15):
I was talking about major carriers and not a commuter carrier.

And I gave you one. Laxintl gave you several.

You need to learn to quit while you're behind.  Wink



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 7223 times:
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Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 8):
I'll let mariner finish this up. It will be fun to sit back and watch the fireworks.

Sorry, Luv2fly, I'm afraid you going to disappoint. When I saw the thread, my reaction was to laugh. This is his second doomsday for F9 in as many weeks:

RE: F9 Screwed By DEN Airport, Again. (by AirFrnt Dec 6 2005 in Civil Aviation)#ID2474205

Do you feel that perhaps he has an agenda?   

A few facts he has wrong:

Quoting Azstar (Thread starter):
plus the inability to acquire new gates without investing millions and millions of dollars,

Frontier doesn't have to invest a dime. All they have to do is sign a long term lease, which they were not prepared to do until the United A gate issue was resolved.

Quoting Azstar (Reply 5):
They have been struggling with profitability for several years,

Which airline - apart from LUV - has not? Why - even JetBlue may be about to record a loss.

Quoting Azstar (Reply 7):
Last month stock was 13.65. Now it's around 8.27.

Wrong. FRNT's 52 week high is $13.01 (last summer), so how can it have been $13.65 last month?

Quoting Azstar (Reply 7):
They just sold $92M worth of debentures to raise operating cash.

Wrong. They just raised $92 million (10% oversubscribed) for capital expenditure, not just for operating cash.

http://www.frontierairlines.com/news...le=/general/2005/pr_12072005a.news

[i]to fund working capital and capital expenditures, including capital expenditures related to the purchase and financing of aircraft and expansion of its operations.[/]

And, just for laughs, here are the Wall Street analysts opinions on Frontier (scroll down).

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=FRNT

Can I go back to bed now?

cheers

mariner

[Edited 2005-12-08 19:55:46]

[Edited 2005-12-08 19:56:44]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineTzadik From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 114 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 7139 times:

Azstar, you held your own... I'm proud. WN will not disappoint.

User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Reply 19, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 7099 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 17):
This is his second doomsday for F9 in as many weeks:

RE: F9 Screwed By DEN Airport, Again. (by AirFrnt Dec 6 2005 in Civil Aviation)#ID2474205

Do you feel that perhaps he has an agenda?

LOL I was just going to post the same question except its only been 2 days between posts not 2 weeks.

And I remember that Azstar also has previously said he feels that Frontier is not well managed. So why the recent interest?



"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
User currently offlineRwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3107 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 7062 times:

Quoting Azstar (Thread starter):
With the addition of WN and additional UA flights throught AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN as part of AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN Airport agreement, plus the inability to acquire new gates without investing millions and millions of dollars, is this the beginning of the end for F9?

I think WN should be kept in perspective: they're adding LAS and PHX and MDW. LAS and PHX are already served by 3 airliners each: HP, UA, AND F9. MDW/ORD is already a key trunk route for UA given their large hub at ORD. To think WN will come in and shut down F9 on three routes where they already face significant competition is completely ludicrous.

F9 has built a solid reputation in AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN as a great airline, with great service and amenities for a great price. I don't think they need to start worrying just yet.


User currently offlineAzstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7040 times:

Quoting Azstar (Reply 11):
I fly F9 a lot because I live in a city that doesn't have many nonstop flights to my destinations, and I think DEN airport is the best airport, along with CVG, for connecting passengers. I've seen the good and the bad about this airline and I think my observations are generally accurate.

The post about Denver screwing F9 was not negative about F9. If anything, it was negative towards DEN airport.

My comment that F9 is not well managed is because I've flown frequently enough to realize that when operations are normal most airlines are pretty good.. However, the test of an airline's management is how things are handled when operations are not normal, e.g. delays and cancellations. In my experience, some other airlines generally do a better job. Not always.

Talking about agenda, why the overreaction against any negative comments concerning Frontier? Every airline gets bashed occasionally, and F9 is not a perfect company.


User currently offline2travel2know From Panama, joined Apr 2005, 3580 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6988 times:

Maybe if F9 would move their hub from DEN to another city in that part of the USA, they could be doing better.
For what I read here and in another topic, is seems DEN airport doesn't want F9 that much..



I don't work for COPA Airlines!
User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12118 posts, RR: 49
Reply 23, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6972 times:
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Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 16):
And I gave you one. Laxintl gave you several.

Several of his are wrong though for the most part yes they are up. Big whoop! Also Alaska and Horizon even though separate really should be counted as one, in the big scheme of things. Also ironic that Horizon runs flights for Frontier and if not for flights for Alaska they would not be flying on there own. Also considering Alaska code share whores for almost everyone airline it is easy to fill your seats that way. And last let us not forget just how Alaska screwed the ramp employees at SEA shall we.

Maybe you should take your advise and quit why you are behind!



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 24, posted (8 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6951 times:
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Quoting Azstar (Reply 21):
why the overreaction against any negative comments concerning Frontier? Every airline gets bashed occasionally, and F9 is not a perfect company.

Oh, I admit to my agenda, I've done so many times.

For the record (and once again): I follow Frontier as an airline enthuisiast, as a shareholder - and as a historian.

The historian (I have three published historical books) is fascinated as to whether a tiny airline like Frontier can survive the tumultuous times we have been going through. But for an accident of booking in 1999, I could as easily have followed Midwest.

It some ways, it would be better for me if Frontier does not survive - it makes for a more dramatic ending - but the fun is that Frontier keeps proving otherwise.

Quoting Azstar (Reply 21):
why the overreaction against any negative comments concerning Frontier?

If correcting statements that are false is "over-reacting", then fine, guilty as charged. But when you state:

Quoting Azstar (Reply 7):
Last month stock was 13.65. Now it's around 8.27.

Should I allow that to go unchallenged when it is easily, provably untrue?

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
25 EA CO AS : Just admit you were wrong and move on instead of talking in circles.
26 ScottB : I strongly doubt that this is the "beginning of the end" for Frontier, but I think it's clear that the airlines in the DEN markets impacted by Southwe
27 Azstar : The point is that the stock has been going down, while most other airline stocks are up. Whether it was 13.01, 13.65, 99.92 or 10.00 is irrelevant.
28 Luv2fly : I would if I was, though since I am not I won't!
29 Mariner : Facts are irrelevant? Wow, that's an interesting concept. Jetblue (JBLU) is well down from its 52 week high. Just today - arbitrarily - JBLU is down
30 Stlgph : On the 'flip side', if growth out of Denver is hampered a bit, this could be to Frontier's advantage. Let them operate into the markets they have now
31 Post contains links and images SLCPilot : Luv2fly, I think you'll find the income, number of pax carried, and number of destinations on this regional carrier a suprise....In fact, I think they
32 Luv2fly : The fact that they get paid for there flying and fly under other airlines name is a whole nother animal! You have to agree with me there.
33 EA CO AS : Luv2fly, why do you answer everything with, "Yeah but.... yeah but... yeah but..." when you've been shot down? Christ, you even made a slam on AS' sit
34 SJC>SFO : ... I don't see why that's so novel. A fact can be irrelevant to a given question (to say nothing of the relevancy of those particular facts to this
35 Etops1 : i will tell who is doomed . DELTA
36 Jwb20 : I think that WN will have the most trouble to. WN has gone to DEN before and pulled out. I don't think that they can compete with F9 or UA. GOOD LUCK
37 Laxintl : Actually my numbers were 100% correct as of 1:45pm Eastern time.
38 Simpilicity : they just have to think smarter. What about operating out of COS as well?
39 Luv2fly : Not sure who died and left you Boss, Yeah but I am not wrong and I do not have to take orders from you...... Suggestion if you do not like reading wh
40 Post contains images Flyguy595 : I seem to remember a certain Western Pacific low fare airline that couldn't make it in COS. I don't think there is enough customer base? Plus there i
41 Post contains images Nosedive : Don't you mean LHR001? I gotta ask, if you're using this as the basis as to why you "know" F9 is doomed, why did you even ask the question, "Is F9 do
42 BMIFlyer : Ouch!! Looking at that routemap I see thay skywest fly ORD to YEG. That's an awful long trip on an RJ right? 3 hrs or so? Lee
43 Flashmeister : Each time we go through the same procedure... "they're not well-run" ... "they don't have a future plan" ... "they're not consistently profitable" ...
44 Rdwelch : All things considered, F9's executive management has a firm hold on the VERY fluid nature of DIA. UA was able to force out a legacy carrier in CO from
45 BMIFlyer : Slightly off topic, but does anyone know what gates WN will have at DEN?? Thanks Lee
46 Rampart : Recall that Western Pacific failed AFTER they moved their hub to Denver. F9 had the opportunity to buy them, but chose not to, so that hasn't seemed
47 Dallas74 : When someone uses a "fact" to make their point and then it's refuted it's not irrelevant because it strikes at the overall accuracy of the underlying
48 Dallas74 : I left NYC on 9/10/2001 on Frontier Airlines bound for Los Angeles. We all know what happened on 9/11. My return trip was on Friday 9/14/2001. While
49 Azstar : Date Research Firm Action From To 9-Dec-05 Goldman Sachs Downgrade Outperform In-Line Most airline stocks opened slightly lower this morning, except J
50 Alphascan : F9 is smoking UA on DEN based O&D traffic. In the summer and other high traffic periods, F9 fares aren't even competitive on most connecting routes t
51 LTBEWR : F9 may have it's problems from time to time as well documented here, but somehow they have survived an expensive airport to operate at, able to co-exi
52 AirFrnt : Treat thoose reports with about as much creditability as they deserve (frankly none). DEN and F9 are actually negotiating over a new hanger here in D
53 AkjetBlue : I think that F9 will again look at another focus city, similar to the LAX one however they'll put better effort into this. My guess is DC but ya neve
54 Alphascan : LTBEWR; You'll get no arguement from me that F9 Marketing- outside of the DEN market- is weak. Their use of the internet (extremly inexpensive CPMs) i
55 Cloudy : Those looking for the mother of all battles here will be dissapointed. They will match fares and that will be it. I doubt any of the three parties he
56 Post contains images Mariner : Sorry, I never actually lived in Denver, just visited there a lot - after I found Frontier. Then my Australian godson went to college there, and I vi
57 RichardJF : What about going to COS but not flying domestic US from there but just focus on something like Western Canada (Winnipeg,Calgary,Edmonton, Vancouver) t
58 Simpilicity : DEN always seems to take a long time from downtown Denver. Never been to COS but surely total driving time couldn't be much more ??? Are there parts o
59 DLKAPA : Anybody here remember the newscast of Mayor Webb ripping up that letter sent to him by UA and calling it "absolutely unnacceptable bullying tactics?"
60 Rampart : Denver and Colorado Springs are about 70 miles apart center to center, but parts of south Denver metro are 15-25 miles closer. Throw in Douglas Count
61 Flyguy595 : What would happen if DEN were to build new Gates say add on to A and C what happens to the Gates particularly the ones at the west end of A frontier h
62 AirFrnt : For pretty good reason, imho. Remember that Frontier was considerably smaller back at the time WestPac was in operation. Remember also that the Fleet
63 Post contains images DLKAPA : Death Knell in terms of expansion or in terms of existance? Hehe... Where the heck is I-36? Colorado Springs has also taken steps to make COS more ac
64 Post contains links and images Mariner : Not insane at all. The puzzle is why they haven't. If the United A gates had become available, Frontier would have signed for those gates in a heartb
65 EA CO AS : Sorry, but QX is only part of Air Group, and AS by itself is profitable - while they codeshare with others, they don't fly on a cost-plus basis the w
66 Post contains images Gigneil : What does that mean, exactly? COS continues to demand amongst the highest fares in the industry, and among the highest yields. I used to find it baff
67 Post contains links and images FlyGuyClt : F9 Stock Downgraded. Link: http://aolpf5.marketwatch.com/news/n...353DA-378D-4586-B9F5-9EE0D9DD4A85} Safe Flying Now, Mariner, I just put a link in wi
68 Post contains links and images Mariner : As a wrap up to this, the RMN has an overview of the situation - it's mostly stuff that has been covered in this and other threads (like - might they
69 DLKAPA : Slight correction, the "New COS" as you refer to it was just the new terminal facilities (much better location), same airport. Anybody here remember
70 Gigneil : DLKAPA- I do remember the old terminal. 3 gates, not very comfortable. At the same time the new terminal building opened, a new runway with attendant
71 DLKAPA : They did have a nice restaurant, had breakfast there once, and you could go down to ramp level inside with windows, that was pretty cool. I believe t
72 Hillbilliescot : unfortunately the old terminal has been torn down this past summer. I was sad to see it go.I spent a lot of time there as a child.
73 Rampart : Mariner, what is the "Yahoo board" link you speak of? Is it free to read (like A.net)? -Rampart
74 Post contains links and images Mariner : Not only free to read, but free to post - you have to register a user name and password (to post), but it is all free. Yahoo has a whole series of mes
75 RichardJF : Why does Frontier have A318's?
76 Yyz717 : F9 is not doomed but is extremely vulnerable as a one-hub airline with virtually ALL flights hubbing thru DEN. F9 needs one or more smaller focus citi
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