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In The End Is Delta Air Screwed?  
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5732 posts, RR: 48
Posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6340 times:

I read to day that if Delta get court approval to reduce pilot pay then pilots say they will go on strike. If this happens Delta can certainly go the way of Pan Am, TWA, and Eastern. Cold the same thing happen if the court sides with the pilots and keep intact the contract between the pilots and the union? If that is the case how will Delta find other ways of cutting costs and emerging from Ch. 11? I think they're screwed either way.


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
30 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlydl2atl From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 119 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6332 times:

Fuel is starting to come down....Delta could make up the difference in fuel costs and/or increased revenue.

User currently offlineSjc>sfo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6287 times:

As many recent posts have noted, Delta is having a bit of a cash problem. This has a great deal of potential to force them into Chaper 7.

User currently offlinePtcflyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 101 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6177 times:

Among my concerns over Delta's survival is that their fleet is old. Their International 767s are getting long in the tooth. The interiors of most of the planes are dated and worn. The Business Elite cabin is in desperate need of a "renewal". The cleanliness and food service levels across Delta's mainline fleet are subpar. Delta's mainline fleet inflight entertainment is relatively pathetic and/or non-existent. The place where Delta has spent most of its new capital is covered in Lime Green / Orange. And now, DL has to spend money to change that back into a more suitable Delta consistency.

Also, Delta's fleet is very mix-matched. You have Song -- all coach configured planes, Delta Shuttle 787-800 configured planes with no first class, but premium coach, Delta mainline domestic configured planes, Delta 767-300 international configured planes with Business Elite, Delta 767-300 international planes with domestic first -- sold only as coach. And of course, you have a huge fleet of a mix-bag of CRJs / ERJs in the fleet. As well, DL has a very small fleet of 777s, which may be too expensive to operate with such small numbers. This is in addition to paying to shed the 737-200s, MD-90s, and 767-200s.

One thing that frequent travelers do like is consistency. With Delta, a traveler will not want to bite into the lollipop and have no idea what flavor to expect.

The capital requirements for Delta just to remain competitive are not trivial.

To-Date, Delta is offering up new seat covers, new seat numbers, and wood floors in the toilet on select aircraft. These are cosmetic touches that will not really make Delta's fleet competitive with the LCCs, and most of the majors.

When US Air, and UAL went in to bankruptcy, they had fleets of relatively new Airbus's to continue flying. UAL has a truly global network. Delta is pushing hard across the Atlantic with a relatively non-competitive product. Delta was not nearly as far along with its fleet renewal process at the time of bankruptcy.

So, the question will be, can Delta cut costs enough to fund operations in a challenging revenue environment, continue to attract premium revenue & trans-Atlantic growth with a sub-competitive product, while at the same time attracting enough new capital to fund fleet renewal, true interior retrofits with reasonable inflight entertainment/amenities, and a new Business Elite development/marketing launch.

They have a lot of legacy problems and history to overcome in order to be successful. And I am concerned that the "Spirit of Delta" may have gone away to Mojave.... (the plane and employee dedication).


User currently offlineRwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3077 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 6075 times:

Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
Among my concerns over Delta's survival is that their fleet is old. Their International 767s are getting long in the tooth. The interiors of most of the planes are dated and worn. The Business Elite cabin is in desperate need of a "renewal". The cleanliness and food service levels across Delta's mainline fleet are subpar. Delta's mainline fleet inflight entertainment is relatively pathetic and/or non-existent. The place where Delta has spent most of its new capital is covered in Lime Green / Orange. And now, DL has to spend money to change that back into a more suitable Delta consistency.

I think DL would be a good candidate for exit financing by either Airbus or Boeing, but on a much larger scale than that of HP/US.

DL needs new narrowbodies to replace the 732/733/M88/M90 and to reduce reliance on CRJ. This need could be filled by the 736/73G/738/739 or A318/319/320/321. I would give the edge here to Boeing, because of the large number of 738's that DL already has.

DL also needs new widebodies to replace all those 767s. A widebody replacement would also be a good time to re-evaluate the 777, since DL only has a few of them, and they are still in high demand. DL could very easily consolidate the 752/763/764/777 into a single type by buying the 787. They could also just as easily replace them with the A321/A330/A350. I could theoretically see them going either way here.

That said, If one of the manufacturers offered a large financial incentive and an investment stake perhaps, I could see DL going along. And I think all fleet decisions up until now could go out the window. If Airbus provided hundreds of millions in exit financing and deferred payments on plans, DL management would be foolish to not go along, despite their preference for Boeing.

I agree that DL's fleet is in need of a major overhaul and this will continue to be a pressing challenge. If either A or B wanted to help them out of bankruptcy, that would be a very viable option for both parties, in my opinion.


User currently offlinePtcflyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 101 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 6038 times:

My concern is their viability until all the new aircraft can be purchased. They need a lot of cash to revamp their current fleet while they wait for these new aircraft we all agree they desperately need. Delta has to show these investors that it has the means to make it to a new, renewed fleet... and justify the incremental investments needed to get there.

The risk associated is will their be a viable plan to have enough revenue with an inferior product in the short-term to gather up all of this financing, make improvements to their existing fleet, and attract enough capital from aircraft manufacturers to fund their long-term fleet needs.

UAL and US Air have fairly competitive fleets and were not as desparate for fleet renewal as Delta currently is. Continental is in great shape with their fleet and the condition of their services. American is in much better shape than Delta as far as fleet quality goes. That leaves NWA and DAL in a bit of a bind that may be challenging at best!


User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4875 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 5926 times:
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Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
Among my concerns over Delta's survival is that their fleet is old. Their International 767s are getting long in the tooth.

No, DL's fleet age is not significantly worse than most of the legacies. The older 732s and 733s will be gone sometime next year; the oldest 767s (the 762s) are pretty much all retired or sold. The 763ERs for international are no worse than AA's or UA's in terms of age. Their 777s are newer than many of UA's. Their 738s are relatively new...maybe you can consider their MD88s "old" but they're not that bad relatively. NW still has DC9s which they have not indicated they would retire, for example.

Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
The interiors of most of the planes are dated and worn

THey are being refurbished with the new leather seats, better lighting, etc.

Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
Delta's mainline fleet inflight entertainment is relatively pathetic and/or non-existent.

Compared to who? Yes, compared to B6, everyone's IFE is pathetic maybe except for Song. In fact, DL with its heavy use of 757s and 767s domestically offers IFE on flights normally one would not expect; even the 738s offer IFE - that's a lot more than say NW's "new" A320/A319s. After all the fleet retirements, only the MD88/90s will not offer any sort of IFE.

Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
The Business Elite cabin is in desperate need of a "renewal".

A "renewal" is planned for Summer 2006; it won't be a flat-out redesign but there will be changes to the entertainment system, lighting, seat cushion (last I heard), etc.

Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
Delta 767-300 international planes with domestic first -- sold only as coach.

THat's the 767-400; and the all-coach version is only planned for next summer as reconfiguration cannot be done in time. It's deliberately being used on markets which have a much higher proportion of tourist traffic (DUB/SNN/MAN) - no different than what AA has been doing - deploying 757s on BOS-SNN, JFK-NCL (starting 2006), etc.


User currently offlineRwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3077 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5853 times:

Quoting Panamair (Reply 6):
A "renewal" is planned for Summer 2006; it won't be a flat-out redesign but there will be changes to the entertainment system, lighting, seat cushion (last I heard), etc.

And therein lies DL's problem. Rather than investing to do things right, they do these half-a$$ed window dressing approaches that will need to be re-vamped in a few years.

Let's say DL revamps BizE as you propose. They will still be anti-competitive compared with the European carriers, and at best equal with other US carriers. To gain new business, you need to give people a reason to choose you. People won't choose DL over the likes of BA/LH/AF/KL, etc. if they just keep bringing out the paintbrush and new seat covers every few years.

And I also think the 763's should get priority over other aircraft. DL's international product has become downright embarassing. Why are they investing all the money on MD88's that fly people from BNA-ATL when they should be focusing on the people flying to FCO, CDG, SVO, etc. These are the people paying DL's bills.


User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6785 posts, RR: 34
Reply 8, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5830 times:

If they strike, they die. It's that simple.

User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4875 posts, RR: 25
Reply 9, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5800 times:
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Quoting RwSEA (Reply 7):
Let's say DL revamps BizE as you propose. They will still be anti-competitive compared with the European carriers, and at best equal with other US carriers. To gain new business, you need to give people a reason to choose you. People won't choose DL over the likes of BA/LH/AF/KL, etc. if they just keep bringing out the paintbrush and new seat covers every few years.

I fly DL international BusinessElite every few weeks and frankly, I still prefer it to some of these fancy-schmancy "lie-flat-at-an-angle" seats which are all talk and no substance..often, I end up as a ball at the foot of the seat (this goes for the new seats on AF and LH). On LH, depending on which aircraft you get on, you may end up with an old J seat which is far inferior to the DL BE seat. Not to mention that LH 744s and AF 744s/777s as well as KL 777s have a 2-3-2 configuration whereas you would never have the opportunity to be stuck in the middle seat in DL BusinessElite. BA and VS J seats are definitely superior (by virtue of being true flat beds) but they are hardly of direct consequence to DL until the day DL gets the rights to LHR.

I think people confuse the "worn down" look of the DL seats with the merit of the actual product itself. Yes, I agree that many BE seats are looking old and tired but those can be easily fixed; the product itself (60 inches pitch and a 160 degree recline) is NOT a lousy product by any means, even today.


User currently offlineTWA902fly From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 3122 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5782 times:

Quoting Panamair (Reply 6):
only the MD88/90s will not offer any sort of IFE.

Actually their MD-90s have flip-down TVs a la 737-NG and A320...


'902



life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5757 times:

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 4):
I think DL would be a good candidate for exit financing by either Airbus or Boeing, but on a much larger scale than that of HP/US.

I don't think Boeing would want one of their largest customers to go under. Boeing could help save DL.

Quoting Panamair (Reply 6):
No, DL's fleet age is not significantly worse than most of the legacies. The older 732s and 733s will be gone sometime next year; the oldest 767s (the 762s) are pretty much all retired or sold. The 763ERs for international are no worse than AA's or UA's in terms of age. Their 777s are newer than many of UA's. Their 738s are relatively new...maybe you can consider their MD88s "old" but they're not that bad relatively. NW still has DC9s which they have not indicated they would retire, for example.

That is correct.

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 7):
And I also think the 763's should get priority over other aircraft. DL's international product has become downright embarassing. Why are they investing all the money on MD88's that fly people from BNA-ATL when they should be focusing on the people flying to FCO, CDG, SVO, etc.

DL is just starting to push their international service, to try to do better here. The domestic flights is where they need a big boost in passengers. So, it makes sense to try to make their MD-88s better than, say AAs MD-82s.

Quoting Slider (Reply 8):
If they strike, they die. It's that simple.

That is true for DL, NW, UA, TZ, or any other airline in bankruptcy. I don't think the new US is to far out of the woods, trying to merge a union airline (US) with a mostly non-union airline (HP).


User currently onlineBoysteve From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2004, 932 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5700 times:

Quoting Flydl2atl (Reply 1):
Fuel is starting to come down....Delta could make up the difference in fuel costs and/or increased revenue

Yes, but if other airlines cut prices as fuel falls then Delta still has a problem.

Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
Also, Delta's fleet is very mix-matched. You have Song -- all coach configured planes, Delta Shuttle 787-800 configured planes with no first class, but premium coach, Delta mainline domestic configured planes, Delta 767-300 international configured planes with Business Elite, Delta 767-300 international planes with domestic first -- sold only as coach

Wow, how do you simplify the fleet and increase flexibility with all these restrictions? What do McDonald's do? They keep things simple. So the lesson is not just keep aircraft types minimal but also configurations. Maximize flexibility and keep variation to a minimum. You cannot keep all of the people happy all of the time, but fix it for a majority and reduce costs at the same time and you stand a chance. Any airline in chapter 11 not doing this should be killed off, its the only way the rest will survive!

This is my opinion, slate me if you will but please back it up with an alternative plan should you choose to.


User currently offlineN160lh From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 280 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5693 times:

Quoting Slider (Reply 8):
Quoting Slider (Reply 8):
If they strike, they die. It's that simple.

The Railroad act would send the pilots right back to work if they did try to strike.... DL is in a strong position if the judge makes the pilot take the pay cuts. The pilots know that they will not be able to find new employment with the amount of money they would be making after the pay cuts at DL. Also the pilots union tried to hold a rally in ATL for pilots, where 3500 pilots could have attended, yet only about 800 showed up.... This leads me to believe that a lot of pilots would cross the lines and work anyways. However, that would only happen until DL could file for the Railroad Act, which A) does not take that long anymore and B) would be a presidential order forcing the pilots back to work.... So no... Not screwed...!



"I do alright up in the air, its down on the ground that I tend to mess up..."
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12897 posts, RR: 100
Reply 14, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5670 times:
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Quoting Sjc>sfo (Reply 2):
As many recent posts have noted, Delta is having a bit of a cash problem. This has a great deal of potential to force them into Chaper 7.

Very true. The $5million/day loss rate (even if 1/2 is paper losses) has got to be cut. While I don't think the pilots pay will break DL quickly, it will unless oil keeps dropping. As I see the contract price for January oil creeping back up... I wonder. (But it could just be fluctuations as are normal in the oil markets.)

Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
This is in addition to paying to shed the 737-200s, MD-90s, and 767-200s.

Paying? Ok, a loss. I hadn't heard anything about the MD-90's, speculation or do you have a link?

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 4):

I agree that DL's fleet is in need of a major overhaul and this will continue to be a pressing challenge. If either A or B wanted to help them out of bankruptcy, that would be a very viable option for both parties, in my opinion.

That is an option, but first DL needs to pull itself up by its own bootstraps.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBucky707 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1028 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5663 times:

Quoting N160lh (Reply 13):
The Railroad act would send the pilots right back to work if they did try to strike.

wrong. The Railway labor act does not apply in Bankruptcy. Even the judge agrees. Check out the transripts from the second or third day of the court precedings.


User currently offlineN160LH From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 280 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5630 times:

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 15):

I just did a study on the RLA and it "CAN" apply in BK. But it does not matter because it would be up to the President to decide that... Not the Judge!!!

N160LH



"I do alright up in the air, its down on the ground that I tend to mess up..."
User currently offlineSimpilicity From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5594 times:

When is US govt going to learn?

Get out of aviation policy & let the market decide !!! 2 majors need to collapse in the U.S. OR 4 majors need to shrink to the size of 2 & co-operate.

Even then still have the attitude problem. Airline employees who have been paid too much, are not very happy about getting their pay & perks slashed & this attitude gets passed onto customers.

Case in point ... AC check in staff at YLW. We each needed to pay $100 change fee ( x 6 ). Persn at check in said don't worry about it, as I'm be laid off tomorrow. Result AC lost $600 they rightly should have got for no effort.


User currently offlineVegasplanes From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 778 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5587 times:

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 12):
Quoting Ptcflyer (Reply 3):
Also, Delta's fleet is very mix-matched. You have Song -- all coach configured planes, Delta Shuttle 787-800 configured planes with no first class, but premium coach, Delta mainline domestic configured planes, Delta 767-300 international configured planes with Business Elite, Delta 767-300 international planes with domestic first -- sold only as coach

This situation DL is in is reminiscent of CO at entrance to BK # 2, flying the fleets of: EA, PE, CO, Frontier, and New York Air, flying 727, 737, 747, DC-9, DC-10, A-300, all with different seat configurations on the same type of plane.

IF DL is going to survive and thrive, fleet simplification should be one of the first things they address, make sure each fleet type is the same (seat wise). That should allow DL to increase fleet utilization, which will lower costs and could possibly increase revenues if the fleet size is not reduced.

They need a standardized product that is better across the board than what they currently offer, ex. Switching all Domestic flights to a Song style operation with a first class section. This might help them win passengers over who might not otherwise fly DL. What DL should try is expanding the Song-like product where Jetblue is not heavy, ex. Intra-West Coast flying, they have the space in LAX and SLC to add more flights, B6 has minimal west coast connecting options, why not try to give the others a run with that product on the 733's, 738's and MD-90's.

OR

Quoting Slider (Reply 8):



Quoting Slider (Reply 8):
If they strike, they die. It's that simple.

My two cents on DL


User currently offlineBucky707 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1028 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5580 times:

Quoting N160LH (Reply 16):
But it does not matter because it would be up to the President to decide that... Not the Judge!!!

RLA or not, I think the President could step in and stop a strike. However, I think the union is smarter than that. I don't know that you would see an out and out strike. There are other options.

At the end of the day though, the president won't step in unless there is an actual strike. If the pilots say they will strike on such and such a date, what do you think would happen to Delta's bookings? I dont think the pilots have to actually follow through with a strike. The threat may be enough if it drives away enough bookings. Even the president can't stop the union from threatening a strike.


User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4875 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 5398 times:
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Regarding the President stepping in, I think it all depends on the timing of the strike (i.e., if it materializes, and that's a big IF). If it were to occur around the Christmas to New Year's period, you can bet that Bush would step in as there would be absolute travel chaos around the country; however, if it were to occur after the rush in the very very slow mid-to-late January timeframe, then he may not.

As to advance bookings, the strike threat is probably doing damage to DL's January bookings but holiday bookings are pretty much done and sealed - at this point, even if people are nervous and try to switch carriers especially around the peak holiday travel days, they will be out of luck; almost everyone (including DL) is quite solidly booked.


User currently offlineB777-700 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 5380 times:

Quoting Simpilicity (Reply 17):
When is US govt going to learn?

Maybe when a major US carrier going out of business wouldn't be disasterous to an already weak American economy?

ie: Not any time soon.


User currently onlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5368 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 5372 times:

There have been lots of strike threats at various airlines since the give-backs began. Threats, but no strikes. The union leaders aren't complete idiots; with thousands of airline workers on furlough or gone for good, they know they can't strike. They just have to live with today's circumstances and wait for better times.


I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineWdleiser From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 961 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 4619 times:

Delta, it would seem, would be a great canidate for Airbus. Get the A32x family for narrow bodies and replace the 76's with A332's and A333's.

I hope I don't get scrutinized for this. I understand training would be expensive. But you wouldn't do it all at once. You would train X number of pilots to fly each new aircraft delivered.

IE: 5 A319's delivered. Train 25 pilots to fly them. I don't know the exact number of pilots needed to keep 5 A319's flying all the time. 25 was just a thrown out number.

Would the A330 not be a good viable choice for Delta's aging widebody fleet?


User currently offlineDokken10 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4330 times:

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 22):
There have been lots of strike threats at various airlines since the give-backs began. Threats, but no strikes

NWA mechanic have been on strike for almost 4 months now.


25 Dokken10 : The judge can impose a contract on an union under the RLA in BK. Here is the problem that has been debated severly times in the media, so-called expe
26 LongbowPilot : Got anything that isn't bashing on them. Bravo! Your concern is not even worth taking a note for someone whose concern is DLs viability. You are a sa
27 DAYflyer : I agree with what you are saying here, but I do not think that they can rescue DL due to ownership issues. Boeing had to sell United many years ago b
28 FlyPNS1 : Why is it that when anyone posts anything negative about DL, you automatically accuse them of bashing? PtcFlyer gave a reasonably well-thought out an
29 Bucky707 : First of all, its not the RLA that allows a contract to be imposed in BK, it is the BK laws. Second, the judge does not impose a contract. All the ju
30 Av8rDAL : Simplify and standardize the quality of the product offered. Whoever said they don't want to know the flavor of the candy when they eat it is right. I
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