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High Density A380's Would They Suit Hawaiian?  
User currently offlineRichardJF From New Zealand, joined Mar 2001, 792 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3922 times:

It had struck me that the A380 could be put to good use by Hawaiian and while I realize that they may not yet be in a financial position to buy any.
I felt the following points were worth thinking about.

1. Give HA a dominant position on HNL-US routes vs other competitors that almost certainly would never consider such a plane.
2. Would enable them to enter Japan-Hawaii market out of NGO.
3. Give them an excellent plane for HNL-SYD improving the hub potential of HA.

22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3878 times:

If that were a good idea, then we would currently see a lot of JumboJets flying to Hawaii. UA tried that for several years in the 1990s, having configured 3 B747-100s with 26 domestic F seats and 400+ Y seats. UA were disappointed with the results because the aircraft was too large for the market. I think the A350/B787 will become the dominant widebody flying to Hawaii.

Notice that UA have been downgauging Hawaii services from B777 to B767.

The WhaleJet is far too large for the Hawaii market.


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25391 posts, RR: 49
Reply 2, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3876 times:

You've gotta to be kidding right?

What Hawaii-Mainland markets do you think could support a 600+ seat A380?

Even the carriers biggest route LAX-HNL is only served 2-3 times per day depending on the time of year. A huge A380 would require consolidation of services as the flood of seats would create strong downward pressure on yields, and near impossible to fill during the lower demand seasons.

The Hawaii market at one time when primarily solely served via Honolulu could support B747s is unable to even do that today. Honolulu demand continues to fall as the Hawaiian market has become significantly more fragmented with direct services to the various island destinations directly. Hence types like the 757 & 767 are the main types to service Hawaii from the US mainland. Consumers want the direct service along with the added frequency the smaller types can perform. If anything there is likely to be a further increase in the use of smaller types such as the 737NGs that Aloha and ATA use.

Lastly, in regards to Sydney, Hawaiian Air only currently serves the market 4x weekly. A upgauge to the monsterous A380 would like the mainland require a reduction of frequencies as the market would be flooded with seats.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineRichardJF From New Zealand, joined Mar 2001, 792 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3847 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
Even the carriers biggest route LAX-HNL is only served 2-3 times per day depending on the time of year. A huge A380 would require consolidation of services as the flood of seats would create strong downward pressure on yields, and near impossible to fill during the lower demand seasons.

Wouldn't it just tend to get rid of some competition off the West Coast routes by largely bankrupt competitors.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
Lastly, in regards to Sydney, Hawaiian Air only currently serves the market 4x weekly. A upgauge to the monsterous A380 would like the mainland require a reduction of frequencies as the market would be flooded with seats

By going to daily with a 2 class A380 would mean they could compete very effectively with Qantas on Australia - West Coast routes taking full advantage of their existing network and moving Hawaiian away from seasonal troughs.


User currently offlineBoeingfanyyz From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 991 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3822 times:

Are there even enough people living in Hawaii to fill a few 380's? I don't think there is enough demand for a fleet update for HA.
Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz  airplane 



"If it aint boeing, it aint going!", "Friends are like condoms...they protect you when things get hard!"
User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25391 posts, RR: 49
Reply 5, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3810 times:

Quoting RichardJF (Reply 3):
Wouldn't it just tend to get rid of some competition off the West Coast routes by largely bankrupt competitors.

Yes it would serve to get rid of Hawaiian Air fresh out of Ch11 itself if anything!
While competitors might adjust Honolulu capacity and continue to channel more flying directly to the islands, Hawaiian Air would still be stuck flying this huge plane to Honolulu, a markets who's demand is flat at best year over year. HA would have a huge burden trying to fill such a plane at the expense of its own route frequency and yields.

Quoting RichardJF (Reply 3):
By going to daily with a 2 class A380 would mean they could compete very effectively with Qantas on Australia - West Coast routes taking full advantage of their existing network and moving Hawaiian away from seasonal troughs.

How much demand is there truly between Hawaii and Australia?
As far as mainland feed, even with Hawaiian currently offering free Hawaii stopovers and free interisland flights, they are not driving masses of people away from direct Qantas and United services between the mainland and Australia. The A380 would be even a more difficult burden to fill then the current 4x weekly 767s.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineRichardJF From New Zealand, joined Mar 2001, 792 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3802 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 5):
How much demand is there truly between Hawaii and Australia?

How much demand is there between Australia and Singapore or Australia and Dubai?


User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2954 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3753 times:

Only problem is JL (perhaps QF) is the only carrier(s) operating as large as the 747 into Hawaii. Unfortunately, JL is not going acquire the A380. With the launch of the 748, they would be a good candidate to see continued service with the 747s for decades to come.

User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25391 posts, RR: 49
Reply 8, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3751 times:

Quoting RichardJF (Reply 6):
How much demand is there between Australia and Singapore or Australia and Dubai?

To Singapore a good deal.

But anyways, I think what you are trying to determine is how airlines will be able to serve cities like Australia-Dubai and Singapore with A380s?? Its simply due to the very strong demand between Europe and Australia. While Australia-USA demand is also quite strong, the market's are quite different.

There simply is no aircraft that can operate Australia-Europe nonstop hence why Emirates and SIA can very succesfully capture the transfer traffic via their hubs as the passenger must stop some place. Whether it be SIN, DXB, BKK, HKG, KUL, etc the stop is a must.
The Australia/New Zealand-US market is not like that. Direct nonstop services are both available and growing making a onestop service offered by a carrier Hawaiian much less attractive then the direct nonstop options.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineDarthRandall From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 302 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3678 times:

Yeah, I have a hard time imagining something like that working. Perhaps it could work if they used it on a route to Europe, say to Paris? I know that not many Europeans travel to Hawaii, but if the ticket cost could be kept reasonably low and it could be arranged such that it could be fed by several connecting flight from other places in Europe it may entice more Europeans into giving it a try. It is a fascinating destination, after all.


Ninjas can kill anyone they want! Ninjas cut off heads all the time and don't even think twice about it.
User currently offlineSimpilicity From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3657 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 5):
How much demand is there truly between Hawaii and Australia?

Huge, price sensitive, built up demand since SEP11 & huge fare increases, BUT better suited to seasonal charters, than year round service.

You should have seen them come out of the woodwork when we were selling CANADA 3000 AUD$999(~USD$740) gross (AUD$740(~USD$547) nett) return SYD-BNE/HNL/YVR or BNE-SYD/AKL/RAR/HNL/YVR in late 2000. We sold thousands of seats & could have old a lot more.


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3644 times:

Quoting DarthRandall (Reply 9):
I know that not many Europeans travel to Hawaii, but if the ticket cost could be kept reasonably low and it could be arranged such that it could be fed by several connecting flight from other places in Europe it may entice more Europeans into giving it a try. It is a fascinating destination, after all.

SE Asia is probably the same travel time but is far, far cheaper than Hawaii and you get most of the same things.


User currently offlineDarthRandall From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 302 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3589 times:

Quoting N79969 (Reply 11):
SE Asia is probably the same travel time but is far, far cheaper than Hawaii and you get most of the same things.

Yeah, that's true. Hawaii does have some unique offerings, though. Surfing is better in Hawaii than anywhere else in the world. It has a unique culture, and the big island in particular has some fascinating ancient Polynesian sites. Then there is the topography. For someone interested in more than just beaches, it's a great destination.



Ninjas can kill anyone they want! Ninjas cut off heads all the time and don't even think twice about it.
User currently offlineRichardJF From New Zealand, joined Mar 2001, 792 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 3561 times:

Quoting N79969 (Reply 11):
SE Asia is probably the same travel time but is far, far cheaper than Hawaii and you get most of the same things

This is right Hawaii is probably a hard sell in Europe.

HA should take a very confident approach with flights downunder as they complement their existing route network well.


User currently offlineT prop From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1029 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3495 times:

Even if HA could fill every seat on every A380 flight, what use would it be when the aircraft physically can't fit at HNL. The gates are to close and the so is taxiway spacing.

Upgrade HNL for the A380? The way things work in this state it will never happen. It took over 25 years, and $1,300,000,000.00 to build the 16 mile long H3 freeway.

T prop.


User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26496 posts, RR: 75
Reply 15, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3473 times:

Quoting RichardJF (Thread starter):
1. Give HA a dominant position on HNL-US routes vs other competitors that almost certainly would never consider such a plane.

There is a reason they wouldn't order such a plane, it is too large. If a large plane was suitable, the 744 would regularly ply Hawai'ian routes to the mainland

Quoting RichardJF (Thread starter):
2. Would enable them to enter Japan-Hawaii market out of NGO.

Um, Hawai'ian could run to NGO right now if they wanted with their 763ERs. The market is already saturated

Quoting RichardJF (Thread starter):
3. Give them an excellent plane for HNL-SYD improving the hub potential of HA.

They already have the optimal plane for their SYD services. Hawai'ian is an unaligned airline with limited name recognition outside the Islands and the west coast. They are not going to magically fill an airplane like the A380

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
If anything there is likely to be a further increase in the use of smaller types such as the 737NGs that Aloha and ATA use.

ATA doesn't use their 738s to the Islands last I checked. It is all 757s. Aloha made a mistake, in my mind, with the 73G's to the mainland. The CASM is not good enough to make it work

Quoting RichardJF (Reply 3):


Wouldn't it just tend to get rid of some competition off the West Coast routes by largely bankrupt competitors.

Not a chance. Besides, Hawai'ian is fresh from Ch. 11 themselves and has no possible way of buying even 1 $250 million airplane.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 16, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3443 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
You've gotta to be kidding right?

What Hawaii-Mainland markets do you think could support a 600+ seat A380?

Oh calm down, its an unopinionated question, he didn't make up his mind.

Quoting RichardJF (Reply 3):
Wouldn't it just tend to get rid of some competition off the West Coast routes by largely bankrupt competitors.

That would be if pax did not decide to go with those competitors for more/better choices. That said, those that may are not loyal, they just want a cheaper ticket at the time they want. Then there is the situation of, "if you build it they will come" -- that is, one could conceivably create more market (i.e. draw pax into the game) by offering cheaper fares if enough come to play, so to speak Big grin I sppose that is was EK is trying to do.

Like others have said, however, begin large has the risk of consolidation and thus reducing frequency, unless there is, or will be, a whole lot of people to move around. Personally, one area I thnk A380 is good for is freeing up space consumed by having too much frequency, present or future.

But with the current demand on frequency and that not as many people go on long haul, a less capacity airceft with equal or greater range may be the future unless places like HNL are the destination. Stop-overs might be rare in the future. Especially if an SST comes into the picture down the road, then all the flights ULH/LH will be non-stop or p2p. Even LHR-SYD would be a 15 hour flight.



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
User currently offlineT prop From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1029 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3434 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
ATA doesn't use their 738s to the Islands last I checked. It is all 757s. Aloha made a mistake, in my mind, with the 73G's to the mainland. The CASM is not good enough to make it work

That's strange, I see a TZ 738 taking off out of HNL late afternoons almost daily now.


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25391 posts, RR: 49
Reply 18, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 3405 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
ATA doesn't use their 738s to the Islands last I checked.

ATA's been using 737-800s to Hawaii for a bit now. Currently both SFO-HNL flights are flown with 738s.
Come January, SFO-OGG along with LAX-OGG & HNL also go to 738s.

Dont also forget Air Pacific runs 737NGs to Hawaii and Canada, while Westjet just began 737-700 service to both HNL and OGG from Vancouver.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineHa763 From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 3660 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 3383 times:
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Quoting T prop (Reply 14):
Even if HA could fill every seat on every A380 flight, what use would it be when the aircraft physically can't fit at HNL. The gates are to close and the so is taxiway spacing.

True, there are no gates capable of handling the A380. The current gates have only about 15 ft of seperation. The A380 would require that 2 surrounding gates be blocked off.

Quoting T prop (Reply 14):
Upgrade HNL for the A380? The way things work in this state it will never happen. It took over 25 years, and $1,300,000,000.00 to build the 16 mile long H3 freeway.

Well, if not for the 1990's economic downturn and Sept. 11, we would have had the Diamond Head Concourse expansion done. Also, I know of plans to expand the Ewa Concourse in a couple of years.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
ATA doesn't use their 738s to the Islands last I checked.

ATA uses the 738 on the SFO-HNL route, which then goes to MDW.


User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3331 times:

Perhaps in 10 years time and 2nd hand A380ies, depends on the fuel price as well.

User currently offlinePDXFlyBoy From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 48 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 3189 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
Hawai'ian is an unaligned airline with limited name recognition outside the Islands and the west coast

I beg to differ, Hawaiian's recognition worldwide by customers and business' is renown! Hawaiian is one of the oldest airlines in the world. Only a few currently operating airlines can claim they are older in "years of service" than Hawaiian.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
Aloha made a mistake, in my mind, with the 73G's to the mainland. The CASM is not good enough to make it work

I have to agree, even in a previous thread, their current CEO stated the 737-700 was not a wise choice for even secondary airports of the West Coast. However, let's see what will happen after their exiting bankruptcy...what will their new owners come up with???


User currently offlineKahala777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 9 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 3137 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
What Hawaii-Mainland markets do you think could support a 600+ seat A380?

LAX, SFO, LAS

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
Um, Hawai'ian could run to NGO right now if they wanted with their 763ERs. The market is already saturated

Saturated? No... For saturation try HNL-NRT, HNL-SFO, HNL-LAX

KAHALA777


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