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Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement  
User currently offlineFlying Belgian From Belgium, joined Jun 2001, 2391 posts, RR: 9
Posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8224 times:
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Hello all,

I was wondering now that the QF A vs. B saga is over, is the DL-US-AA 767s replacement market THE market of the decade ?

I guess soon, they'll have to replace all those older 767s. And we could witness an epic battle (revenge ?) A350 vs. B787.

Any hints about the intentions of those U.S carriers ?  Cool


FB.


Life is great at 41.000 feet...
71 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9819 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8198 times:

You definately right about that. The next BIG orders will come from the U.S. Looking at the all-Boeing fleets of most of today's major U.S. based airlines my guess will be the 787 for CO, DL and AA. When looking at the combined 767 AND 757 fleets these airlines have, we can expect very large orders from these airlines. I don't think Airbus will have much chance in winning orders from these airlines as much as I would like to, but it won't happen.

In any way good luck to both A and B in this new and very interesting battle...

A388


User currently offlineA340Spotter From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1981 posts, RR: 23
Reply 2, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8191 times:

CO already has ordered the 787...as has NW...

Airbus has already won an A350 order from US...

DL and AA may not need to order anything for a few years with the equipment they already have in place.

My two cents
JSD



"Irregardless, it's a Cat III airplane, we don't need an alternate!"
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8177 times:

Quoting Flying Belgian (Thread starter):
I guess soon, they'll have to replace all those older 767s.


I guess in order to place orders for new aircraft, they need to survive first. If they could afford new jets, they would already have ordered some. DL recently sold 10 737NG's, that weren't even delivered yet. Possibly some of the big international US airlines will never see the A350 or 787 in their livery.  Wink



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User currently offlinePavlin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8158 times:

It won't be the market of the future considering their current status

Quoting Flying Belgian (Thread starter):

I was wondering now that the QF A vs. B saga is ove

You got that right. I would't give leahy much chances here


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13596 posts, RR: 61
Reply 5, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8103 times:
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If anything, look for AA to order the 783 to replace the AB6 fleet at some point. They'll EVENTUALLY look to the 787 family for 762 and 763 replacements, but the AB6 fleet will be the first overall fleet type changed out.

US has already ordered the A350 thanks to their quid pro quo agreement with Airbus, so that's a done deal to replace the 762 fleet.

DL and UA - assuming the former survives and the latter eventually begins making money again - will be the largest potential orders, since they'll need to replace their 762 and 763 fleets. Look for the 783 and 788 to clean up here.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineDeltaWings From Switzerland, joined Aug 2004, 1294 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8072 times:

Once things get better, it will probably be like this

CO already ordered the 787, but they will get a lot more
DL is an obvious customer of the 787, so no A350s there
NW may have a mix fleet of both 787 and A350
AA will get the 787, as it will suit them best and they will probably not order Airbus
US will just have the A350
UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.



Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 7927 times:

Quoting A388 (Reply 1):
he next BIG orders will come from the U.S.

What about LH, AF, and BA?

Quoting Manni (Reply 3):
I guess in order to place orders for new aircraft, they need to survive first. If they could afford new jets, they would already have ordered some.

AA will be there for sure; DL and NW will most likely stay in bk for awhile like UA did / is doing. But I agree with you that none of these airlines are likely to place new orders for 767 replacements soon. I would love to see it, but they have other funding priorities right now, such as fuel and payroll....



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineFlying Belgian From Belgium, joined Jun 2001, 2391 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 7905 times:
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Indeed I forgot to mention United's 767 replacement in my topic.

Any idea of the age of the oldest 767 flying for UA, AA or DL ?

Continental's are the youngest ones I assume with their 767-200ER.


FB.



Life is great at 41.000 feet...
User currently offlineA342 From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 4682 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 7860 times:

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):
UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.

A ridiculous reason. Operating an Airbus widebody was a first for many airlines. Same for the A32S. UA didn´t fly any Airbusses before, was that a reason for not ordering it ?



Exceptions confirm the rule.
User currently onlineJRadier From Netherlands, joined Sep 2004, 4695 posts, RR: 50
Reply 10, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 7769 times:

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):
UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.

neither did NW before they ordered the A330.....



For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and ther
User currently offlineStuckInCA From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 1961 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 7737 times:

Quoting A388 (Reply 1):
Looking at the all-Boeing fleets of most of today's major U.S. based airlines

Not sure what you mean here. Maybe in terms of widebodies, but plenty of U.S. based airlines are flying large numbers of airbus aircraft.

Quoting A388 (Reply 1):
I don't think Airbus will have much chance in winning orders from these airlines as much as I would like to, but it won't happen

You may just end up pleasantly surprised. As someone else pointed out, US already ordered A350's.  Smile


User currently offlineIslandboy From Bahamas, joined Dec 2003, 165 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 7673 times:

CO - Already Orderered.
NW - Already Orderered.
AA - I believe will go the B787 way..simply because of the A300 crash where them and Airbus threw blame around at each other.
DL - More than likely B787
US - A350.
UA - Could go any which way.

I believe UA might be Airbus best chance to introduce the A350 with another US carrier.



Looks like the fresh wind has gone stale
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 13, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 7655 times:

The 787 family will dominate the 767 replacement market in the US - thats more or less a given, lets take a look:

CO - already ordered the 787 to supplement their 767 fleet and over time replace it.

NW- already ordered the 787 to supplement their A330 fleet and NW has every intention of flying the 787 and A330 side by side for many years to come (Note that NW never operated the 767).

DL - a very loyal Boeing customer - DL will look to the 787 to supplement and in the long term replace its extremely large 763/763ER/764 fleet when finances permit. Although its now ancient history, DL and Airbus had some issues when DL quickly phased out its A310 fleet years ago.

AA - another very loyal Boeing customer that will eventually place an order for the 787 - first as a A300/762 replacement and, over time, to replace its large 763ER fleet. The relationship between AA and Airbus was damaged by the A300 crash at JFK.

US - US/HP already committed to the A350; the A350 order was a controversial provision included in the financing agreement between Airbus and the newly combined US/HP (both large Airbus operators).

UA - UA could go either way when selecting between the 787 and A350, although UA is a big Boeing customer, it suprised many when, years ago, it selected the A319/A320 as a 72S replacement. UA could be an opportunity for Airbus, time will tell. Note that compared to DL and AA, UA's 763ER fleet is rather small.....UA being more focused on the 777/744 for its transpacific routes.

AS - a longshot and not a 767 operator, but AS is growing with a route system that now streches from coast to coast and down the Pacific Coast from Alaska to Mexico - at some point AS may outgrow the 737NG family since longerhaul routes could develop (for example, would AS launch a SEA-LHR service in the future if the bilaterals are modified and it was possible.......who knows?) I could certainly see a small number of 787s in the AS fleet for new longhaul routes and high demand routes, such as SEA-ANC or select service to Mexico.

JetBlue - dont laugh but JetBlue at some point in time may look overseas for even further expansion......not in the short term future but say within the next ten years?! The cutting-edge 787 is just the type of aircraft that JetBlue would purchase......I know that they are a large A320 operator, but they have already suprised a lot of people by ordering the E190 over the A318, and I think that they would do it again if they required longhaul aircraft for expansion.

Hawaiian - Hawaiian has become a rather significant 763 operator in recent years, with a mix of new build and second hand aircraft.....if Hawaiian decided in the medium-term future to move along to the next generation of airliners, they could go either way as I would guess that they would look to replace their entire 763 fleet with either the A350 or 787.


User currently offlineEHHO From Bulgaria, joined Dec 2005, 815 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7581 times:

According to Airfleets.net, UA has 36 active 767s and a whopping 97 active 757s. Especially the replacement of the latter can be interesting.. the oldest one was delivered in 1989. I wonder what they'll do.. opt for a small wide-body like the 787-10, or go for the A32XNG or 737NNG..


"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
User currently offlineSPREE34 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 2248 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7557 times:

Quoting A342 (Reply 9):
Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.
A ridiculous reason. Operating an Airbus widebody was a first for many airlines. Same for the A32S. UA didn´t fly any Airbusses before, was that a reason for not ordering it ?

UA having 320 series now may find savings with "commonality" in going with Airbus for widebody replacement.



I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
User currently offlineUALMMFlyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 135 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7550 times:

I have been hoping for UA to take a look at A330 for a long time, but based on the timing of potential delivery, it appears 787/350 are more logical choices.

Based on the competitors' choices so far, GE being the creditor providing exist financing, technology and advancement of the 787, and Star partners choices (NH, NZ, Polish Air, and potentially SQ), I consider 787 to be the right choice for UA.

I also believe AA and DL will also choose 787 when it's time to replace their A300 and 767.



Treat others like you'd like to be treated!
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7515 times:

Quoting EHHO (Reply 14):
According to Airfleets.net, UA has 36 active 767s and a whopping 97 active 757s. Especially the replacement of the latter can be interesting.. the oldest one was delivered in 1989. I wonder what they'll do.. opt for a small wide-body like the 787-10, or go for the A32XNG or 737NNG..

EHHO, it seems that the 787 might still be too big as a 757 replacement..u're right about the A32X 737NNG's though....I think UA will with those as 757 replacements.....

As for the 767 replacements, while its true that they could go with Airbus' A350, the various 787's lines will provide UA with the flexibility it needs......

from what I've read, UA got the A319/A320 series because when UA needed to order single isle seat planes, Boeing didn't take them too seriously (which they did to many other operators also).......I think they will take UA very seriously now, especially if UA comes out of BK lean and running smoothly for a few years...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6471 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7484 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17):
from what I've read, UA got the A319/A320 series because when UA needed to order single isle seat planes, Boeing didn't take them too seriously

How could Boeing not take the largest carrier in the world ( at the time) seriously. Never read that.


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 84
Reply 19, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7466 times:

Well, Boeing didn't believe them when they said they'd take their business elsewhere was really what it was.

N


User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26492 posts, RR: 75
Reply 20, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7438 times:

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):
NW may have a mix fleet of both 787 and A350

That wont happen. A mix of 787 and A330, yes, because their A330s are nearly brand new.

Quoting Flying Belgian (Reply 8):
Any idea of the age of the oldest 767 flying for UA, AA or DL ?

Well, DL and UA recently rid themselves of their oldest 762As which were near 23 years old. United's oldest 763ER is from 1991, Delta's oldest 763A is from 1986 and American's oldest is a 1985 vintage 762ER.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
it suprised many when, years ago, it selected the A319/A320 as a 72S replacement.

It wasn't much of a surprise to anyone but Boeing. United was very clear about the aircraft they wanted and Boeing didn't build it until it was too late.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
AS

AS will never operate the 787 or A350



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 21, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7428 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 20):

AS will never operate the 787 or A350

Never say never when it comes to the airline industry......


User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26492 posts, RR: 75
Reply 22, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7409 times:

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 21):
Never say never when it comes to the airline industry......

Never is a good word when describing the ultra-careful Alaska Airlines. They once had a 741 on order and never took it and looked at the 757 several times and considered it too large for their network. The 737 will give them all the growth they need and they certainly don't need to suddenly jump up 100 seats in capacity.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 23, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7391 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 22):

Never is a good word when describing the ultra-careful Alaska Airlines. They once had a 741 on order and never took it and looked at the 757 several times and considered it too large for their network. The 737 will give them all the growth they need and they certainly don't need to suddenly jump up 100 seats in capacity.

I agree that Alaska is ultra-conservative, and I am well aware of their 741 order and flirtations with the 757 series.....but times change - years ago, who would have thought that AS would offer transcons services? Years ago, who thought that the 737 would be a transcontinental airliner for that matter.

In my original post I said that AS operating a 787 or A350 would be a longshot - under the right circumstances, even ultra-conservative Alaska could consider longrange flights and need larger aircraft.


User currently offlineIRelayer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 1073 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (8 years 9 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7122 times:

Quoting EHHO (Reply 14):
According to Airfleets.net, UA has 36 active 767s and a whopping 97 active 757s. Especially the replacement of the latter can be interesting.. the oldest one was delivered in 1989. I wonder what they'll do.. opt for a small wide-body like the 787-10, or go for the A32XNG or 737NNG..

Probably a bit of both. The 757 is a unique aircraft that fills a niche that no other aircraft currently does. I bet UA does a mix of slightly lower capacity narrowbodies and higher capacity widebodies to replace their 757 fleet...

-IR


25 1337Delta764 : Delta could order the 787-3 after bankruptcy to replace the 767-200s and eventually the 767-300As. The 787-8 would also be a good addition due to inte
26 Post contains images Jacobin777 :
27 WunalaYann : From what I have read on Boeing's website, the 788 should offer significantly lower capacity than both the 764 and 772. If I remember correctly, the
28 Atmx2000 : The 788 is long haul plane, and he was talking about international expansion when he said supplement, not replacement (supplant).
29 WhiteHatter : The hard part is going to be financing any purchase. NW did theirs before Chapter 11, which locks in better rates before the S&P rating goes into the
30 Dutchjet : I agree with everything you say - the US carriers coming out of bankruptcy are going to have problems financing aircraft acquisitions, this will be t
31 Post contains images USADreamliner : Agree with this comment. They try the 727-200, did it work..? Mmmmh... USADreamliner
32 Post contains images Stitch : UA has consistently been interested in larger and more capabale 777s. They were involved in the 777-200X (now 777-200LR), the 777-300X (now 777-300ER)
33 Worldliner : After securing air canadas orders eventually maybe other airlines will folow such as AA and Dl. also with Dl taking up so many new routes teyll need a
34 1337Delta764 : I said SUPPLEMENTING the 767-300ERs, 767-400ERs, and 777-200ERs, not replacing them. The 767-400ERs and 777-200ERs are still very young, and do not n
35 WunalaYann : My bad. Sorry, I did not understand. So you think the 788 will come in and help on lower-density routes than the 764ERs, is that right? Cheers, Y.
36 1337Delta764 : Yes, that is what I mean.
37 WhiteHatter : Much depends on the numbers in the few years following their exit, and whether any debtor conditions are attached to the emergence. New fleets can be
38 Post contains images ER757 : To say the least....but as you stated "never say never." If they eventually expand to international routes they'll need more than 738's. Most of thei
39 BoomBoom : How big a market is there for the 787-300 in the US? This seems to belong to Boeing as there is no Airbus product like it.
40 Post contains images Stitch : I tend to think UA would not want the A359 because it covers their current 772(ER) fleet, but those planes will be getting along in the mid 2010s. Ho
41 Cslusarc : Well, in the future I expect US legacies will shift their attention from chasing "higher RASM" to chasing "lower CASM". If this occurs I would expect
42 MrMcCoy : I think it all boils down to the fact that Airbus decided to take the original Boeing strategy and make a super-capacity bird in the 380, and had to p
43 BoomBoom : And won't most of those airlines who buy the 783 also go with the 788 and/or 789 if they need long haulers? It's quite amazing how this plane turned
44 D L X : What's so controversial about the US/A350 deal? I don't know if that can accurately be described as "controversial." Also, how can an A350 replace a
45 CTHEWORLD : ....but are one of the largest operators of Airbus narrow bodies, so why would they rule out the A350 if the price were right?
46 Post contains images Glideslope : ...since they have never operated Airbus' before.
47 Dutchjet : Please re-read what I said......I said that the US/HP + Airbus financing deal included a controversial PROVISION.....that provision being that US/HP
48 D L X : Right, I'm familiar with the provision. My question is still, why is this so controversial? It appears to me to just be a good business deal. It defi
49 1337Delta764 : Delta would be an excellent customer for the 787-3. It would make an ideal replacement for the 767-200s and 767-300As. It can fit into many domestic g
50 A330323X : Well, no. The 762 fleet is being replaced by the A330-200s. The A350s are for expansion and probably replacing a few of the A330-300s. One shouldn't
51 Dutchjet : Re the controvery, again, dont you find it odd that an airline just emerging from bankruptcy places an order for 20 brand new and expensive widebody
52 RedFlyer : Not taking them seriously was only part of the reason. They didn't take them seriously because UA was originally created by Boeing back in the 1920's
53 RwSEA : I wouldn't necessarily rule out AA or DL replacing their 757/767 with the A350 just yet. Conventional wisdom would state that they will order the 787,
54 1337Delta764 : The A350 isn't sized right for Delta's operations. The smallest variant is the A350-800, which is in the size category of the 767-400ER. It would be
55 A330323X : Everyone seems to recognize that UA will be placing a large widebody order immediately after exiting bankruptcy, yet that's not a problem. NW placed
56 RedFlyer : So why don't they order more 330's, which would be delivered a lot sooner than the 350s? Perhaps, but then they would've ordered one of them when the
57 A330323X : They're way too busy dealing with the merger integration to be adding widebodies right now, or even narrowbodies. That's why after HP takes a few mor
58 Ckfred : People forget that AA signed a 20-year agreement with Boeing back in 1997 or so to replace the then-existing fleet over 20 years. There is stil 12 to
59 Post contains images Stitch : Stands to reason. As A330323X noted in their reply to this question, how do we know US doesn't need the planes? International is the one area LCCs ar
60 D L X : Not really. All airlines are huge financial commitments, and as far as I can see, what better time to make a large financial commitment than when you
61 Stitch : I imagine because, even though they don't have the capabilities of the 752, the A321 and B739ER get you into the ballpark. Also, the 757 while old, i
62 Dutchjet : Where did I say that? US will certainly not be flying the A320 transatlantic, they will have an awful lot of A332/A333/A350 aircraft for that role. H
63 Post contains images A330323X : I wasn't sure what you were saying, which is why I asked you to clarify it. Yes, about 15 of them will be for expansion. But I believe about 4-5 will
64 ER757 : Boeing should have expected differently after UA order all those DC-10's in the 70's and early 80's.
65 EA CO AS : Agreed on AS never operating the 787 or A350. Just too big for their needs. And WTF was that 72S comment about? AS loved 'em.
66 NYC777 : Doubt that they'll order the A350. They have a large number of 787 options as well as the 18 on firm.
67 Stitch : So they may be a 748I operator, unless they want to downgauge their current 744 and 742 runs rather harshly by using 787-9s and A333s.
68 AirFrnt : Doubtful. NW is one of the best fleet planning carriers out there, and they have never shown a willingness to chase after the newest metal if a more
69 Flying Belgian : BTW, what are the earliest production slots for a potential 787 customer right now ? FB.
70 Post contains images Stitch : Probably depends on how close to list one wants to pay. In theory, the first three years production for 787-3s and 787-8s is spoken for (or soon to b
71 RedFlyer : Problem was that Boeing didn't have a comparable product in their line-up so UA's choice was to order either the DC10 or the L1011 for their domestic
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