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UAL - 787 Or A350?  
User currently online1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6422 posts, RR: 2
Posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 6602 times:

This is a hard one. If United exits bankruptcy, are they more likely to order the 787 or A350? Note that I do not intend to create this as a poll, this is just to discuss the possibilities.

I think that UAL would be more likely to go with the 787, as they don't operate Airbus widebodies.


The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBOS2LAF From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 373 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 6521 times:

IMHO it depends on whether or not Airbus helps UA with its exit financing as was rumored. I don't know whether thats been decided or not, I'm not up to date on that.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30393 posts, RR: 84
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 6501 times:
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If I had to put money down, I'd put it down on the 787.

  • UA has a strong relationship with Boeing.
  • They have been interested in the 772LR and 773ER, as well as the 777F. The 787 will offer them closer cockpit commonality with these widebodies (as well as the 748 if they go for it) then the A358/A359.
  • The A358 is too big to replace their 763s
  • The A359 offers them no additional capacity above their 772s
  • Neither the A358 or A359 will probably be as efficient for their hub-to-Hawaii ops compared to a 787-3 since they are designed for longer ranges with higher MTOWs.

That being said, I will not state that the A350 has no chance.

UA could keep their two-class 772s and 763ERs around to service Hawaii. However, a 763ER is a bit of overkill for Hawaii in terms of range, so an A358 might very well offer similar or superior economics thanks to greater capacity. It would do a decent enough job to replace the two-class 772s.

A358s would allow them to increase capacity on the routes served by three-class 763ERs and A359s would allow them to maintain capacity on routes served by their three-class 772ERs. And the largest routes could be served with 748Is replacing the 744s.


User currently offlineUnitedtristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 6436 times:

Quoting BOS2LAF (Reply 1):
IMHO it depends on whether or not Airbus helps UA with its exit financing as was rumored.

This never happened. UA did not choose any Equity financing (i.e. the airline would be owned by the financiers), they took debt financing from names like J.P.Morgan and Citi. They just need to pay off the debts with a PO or earnings. Noone has controlling interest until the new PO.

-m

 airplane 


User currently offlineSFORunner From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 324 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 6394 times:

Quoting BOS2LAF (Reply 1):
IMHO it depends on whether or not Airbus helps UA with its exit financing as was rumored. I don't know whether thats been decided or not, I'm not up to date on that.

Also dependent on who is brave enough to provide post-BK financing for the purchase of new planes. UA could seek a new line of credit.

Would it be as attractive as funds/planes packaged as exit financing?


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4104 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 6392 times:

The 787 fits too well at UA not to happen. A350 is simply too big considering UA's large 777 fleet, which is only 10 years old for the oldest example. I expect a 787 order by the end of next year.

User currently offlinePrebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6374 posts, RR: 54
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 6347 times:

Being out of bankruptcy and being ordering new, expensive planes are two different things.

Just out of Chapter 11, still with a heavy debt burdon, the UAL credit rating will be very low. That means very high interest rates on loans. It also means that leasing companies will be reluctant to deliver new planes at competitive leasing rates since they risk to have the planes back to desert storage long time before the leasing contracts expire.

Any additional UAL capacity during the next several years, expect that to be pretty well worn, used planes from the Boeing stable.

UAL may be on the right track, and may be on the way to earn money. But with the heavy debts they are financially weaker than the competitors. In case of a "storm" (like for instance 9/11) the storm will down the weakest trees first. The money lenders know that and put a price on it.

Money lenders are not in the market for saving struggled airlines. They are in the market for earning money. That means:
- low risk = competitive interest rates and ordinary leasing rates
- high risk = high interest rates and high leasing rates, especially on planes which are expensive to park in the desert.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineAeroPiggot From United States of America, joined May 2005, 283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 6223 times:

Quote:
This is a hard one. If United exits bankruptcy, are they more likely to order the 787 or A350? Note that I do not intend to create this as a poll, this is just to discuss the possibilities.

I think that UAL would be more likely to go with the 787, as they don't operate Airbus widebodies.

UAL will be very price sensitive for a while after exiting bankruptcy. So Airbus can compete on price and delivery slots against Boeing. But UAl is very happy with the 777, and so Boeing has a lot of good will going into any competition with Airbus.



A scientist discovers that which exists, an engineer creates that which never was.
User currently offlinePlaneDane From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6186 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
This is a hard one. If United exits bankruptcy, are they more likely to order the 787 or A350?

I'll go against the grain here and speculate that the A350 has a future at United. After all, with the recent string of sales campaign losses, I imagine Airbus will really start making some amazing deals...

Besides, ever since United went with Airbus for narrowbodies years ago, it seems like the relationship between the airline and its parent (Boeing), has been much different and maybe strained.

I could very likely be wrong, though, and maybe there are some United employees out there who could set me straight on this...


User currently offlineWdleiser From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 961 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6111 times:

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 10):
Besides, ever since United went with Airbus for narrowbodies years ago, it seems like the relationship between the airline and its parent (Boeing), has been much different and maybe strained.

United may be getting rid of the Boeing narrow bodies but United still flies only Boeing Long Haul aircraft. United may be pissed off about the 757 though. I feel many airlines are pissed about that.

But I doubt United favors Airbus over Boeing and vice versa. United will do its research (more likely Lufthansa will do the research and show United which aircraft truely is the better one) and will purchase the aircraft(s) needed to successfully compete and make a profit and the one with the lowest cost per passenger and highest revenue potential.


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4104 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6086 times:

Quoting Wdleiser (Reply 11):
...will purchase the aircraft(s) needed to successfully compete and make a profit and the one with the lowest cost per passenger and highest revenue potential.

Which will be the 787.  Wink

(I'm going to get chewed out for that...)

As far as UA's relationship with Boeing, they have NEVER been an all-Boeing airline. Even in the early days, they flew mostly Douglas propliners, they flew DC-8s and DC-10s in the 60s-80s, hell they even flew the Caravelle. But, just as they have been very happy with the A32S, they have been exceptionally pleased with their Boeing products, especially the 777.


User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9460 posts, RR: 52
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 6051 times:

Quoting AeroPiggot (Reply 9):
UAL will be very price sensitive for a while after exiting bankruptcy. So Airbus can compete on price and delivery slots against Boeing. But UAl is very happy with the 777, and so Boeing has a lot of good will going into any competition with Airbus.

Actually Airbus isn't in a position to compete as well on price as Boeing. The strong Euro is hurting Airbus because about 50% of their costs have to be paid out in Euros while all airplanes are sold in Dollar terms. This means that with the current exchange rate, Boeing has up to a 15% discount on certain manufacturing costs. Airbus has to hedge against the exchange rate fluctuation. So in reality Boeing has a price advantage assuming other costs are the same.

But all things equal, this will be a good battle. Either plane could fit into UA's future fleet plans. It does depend on price, and if one company can give some exit financing to secure a deal then obviously there is an advantage.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5954 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
If United exits bankruptcy

I think that applies more to DL these days...  Yeah sure

My bet is on the 787 as well, however another a-netter who listened to Tilton speak not too long ago reported that UA will not be ordering aircraft until 2010.

We'll see.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30393 posts, RR: 84
Reply 13, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5948 times:
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Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 13):
The strong Euro is hurting Airbus because about 50% of their costs have to be paid out in Euros while all airplanes are sold in Dollar terms. This means that with the current exchange rate, Boeing has up to a 15% discount on certain manufacturing costs. Airbus has to hedge against the exchange rate fluctuation.

And they are hedging magnificently, which has allowed them to eat essentially all of the currency differences at least through 2007. After that, a strong Euro/weak dollar could start to hurt them.


User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 5789 times:

Because of the success of the 777, I am sure when push comes to shove, UA will go with 787, but like most carriers they will show a keen interest in both, drive the price down and then do a deal...........that said, I think any deal is a long way off, but nothing would suprise me, if they did a major order after exiting CH11.........If they do not get slots until 2010, maybe they feel they need to get there foot on the door!!!  Confused

User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9460 posts, RR: 52
Reply 15, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5626 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
And they are hedging magnificently, which has allowed them to eat essentially all of the currency differences at least through 2007. After that, a strong Euro/weak dollar could start to hurt them.

I wrote a paper on this once. From my research then I remember that Airbus buys options when an order is placed so that when it comes time to produce an airplane, Airbus actually has the costs that it expected to when the contract was signed. Since it is often about two years between a contract getting signed and a plane being built, Airbus needs to protect itself from currency fluctuation so that a sudden rise in the value of the Euro won't hurt them. If they didn't buy options then they might have to face some serious losses because the prices of the planes are already locked in.

Overall Airbus has options set for the contracts that it signed in the past years which is why it can afford to still sell its planes very cheaply to jetBlue, etc. However this will affect the current market and how far down in costs Airbus can go compared to Boeing.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 16, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5596 times:

The B787 has the advantages of smaller size, lower production costs, and convertability between B787-3 and B787-8. All of these will make it easier for Boeing to secure a UA deal.

User currently offlineUALMMFlyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 135 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5479 times:

IMHO, UA is more likely to order Boeing widebodies (including the 787) for the following reasons:

1. When Boeing moved its HQ to Chicago, I remembered reading a newspaper article that discussed how Boeing was stunned when UA picked A319/A320. For years, Boeing had taken UA for granted. One of the reasons (accordingly to the news article) Chicago was picked to be the Boeing HQ, was to be close to UA.

2. I have been told that UA is seriously considering a direct flight into BKK from North America. Apparently, based on UA's internal data, there is enough traffic to justify such a service, and also freeing up one additional NRT slot for future route expansion. I concur with the earlier post on potential 772LR order that would allow UA to fly US-BKK directly. In addition, ORD-DEL is still on the table that may also use 772LR.

3. GE Capital is providing a portion of exit financing for UA, and I expect this will also play into the fleet decision such as 772LR, 773ER and 747-8I, although this reason is not as significant as others in the decision making process.

4. UA may place a 787 order with delivery dates past 2011 to secure slots and favorable pricing and financing from Boeing and GE, although it may not have the financial resources in the immediate 2 years after exiting Ch. 11.

5. UA is pushing hard to gain additional flights into PRC through the US-China aviation pact which allows each country to further increase frequencies gradually over the next several years. In addition to CAN, another destination further inland is also being considered. Although overall frequencies will be increased into PRC, it does not mean UA will be able to fly Multiple 777s into PVG or PEK. Based on the anticipated passenger demands into PRC, 747-8I is definitely being considered for routes to China and HKG.

6. Similar to the views expressed by others earlier, 787 is a right size as replacement.

7. Star Alliance evaluation of 787/350 is still in process, although I think it is more of a PR typed project due to the fact that NH, NZ, LOT and AC have ordered 787 while TAP and US have ordered A350. SQ and LH are the next two in the queue to place orders, and I am not sure if these orders will have any influence on UA's decision.

[Edited 2005-12-20 15:14:43]

[Edited 2005-12-20 15:16:39]


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User currently offlineHiflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2165 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 5371 times:

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 20):
7. Star Alliance evaluation of 787/350 is still in process, although I think it is more of a PR typed project due to the fact that NH, NZ, LOT and AC have ordered 787 while TAP and US have ordered A350. SQ and LH are the next two in the queue to place orders, and I am not sure if these orders will have any influence on UA's decision.

UA's longterm goal, along with LH, is Star commonality....the recent announcement of a transition to a common computer structure is just another step. I would not be suprised to see a similar aircraft buy between the two largest members of Star. Whichever it will be it will be a move away from Pratt on the widebodies.... Smile


User currently offlineUnitedtristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 5124 times:

Quoting StevenUhl777 (Reply 14):
Tilton speak not too long ago reported that UA will not be ordering aircraft until 2010.

No, what Glen said is that he didn't see UA taking on any new aircraft types until at least 2010. This did not mean that he didn't think UA would expand any current fleets. Also he didn't say that they would not order the aircraft before then...just that they wouldn't be here till then.

-m

 airplane 


User currently offlineMidnightMike From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 2892 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 5003 times:

This could be interesting, just my opinion, but, if United can get the Union to have same pilots fly both the 777 & the 787, you will see United ordering the 787.

Boeing has been marketing the 777 & the 787 as a family, the training has been arranged so that it will take 5 days to go from the 777 to the 787. If the same pilots can fly the 777 & the 787, instant order for Boeing, also, it takes 8 days to go from the 757/767 to the 787.....



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User currently offlineUnitedtristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4974 times:

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 23):
This could be interesting, just my opinion, but, if United can get the Union to have same pilots fly both the 777 & the 787, you will see United ordering the 787.

I am sure UA would love the 777 pilots to fly for the price of the current 767 pilots pay but there are basically 3 pay scales at UA. One for 744/777 fleets, one for the 767/757 and one for the narrowbody fleets. For this reason I don't see those lines being mixed at all.

It would definitely be a great to lower some pays but I don't see it happening.

Now for transitions the reduced training costs will be great!

-m



[Edited 2005-12-26 02:11:36]

User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4590 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4914 times:
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Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 20):
One of the reasons (accordingly to the news article) Chicago was picked to be the Boeing HQ, was to be close to UA.

oh pleeez!!. Boeing wanted to be in the midwest or somewhere more central IIRC it was ultimately a choice between Chicago and Dallas, I guess that means Boeing wrote off American!
They went to Chicago because Mayor Daly gave them millions in tax write offs. If they really wanted to be "close " to UAL, they would have picked their HQ building in Schaumburg, its a heck of a lot quicker down I90 to UAs HQ from the site Boeing looked at in Schaumburg than from the Loop!


User currently offlineWhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4897 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
This is a hard one. If United exits bankruptcy, are they more likely to order the 787 or A350? Note that I do not intend to create this as a poll, this is just to discuss the possibilities.

Neither for a few years.

UA needs to get on a stable footing and make profits before they can buy or lease anything. Same as credit card companies charging extra for bad credit customers, UA would find it hard to finance a purchase.

We keep coming back to this, but it's not changed since last week. A company which went under through its losses and debts cannot afford to spend money it does not yet have. Remember TW and the ruinous rates they had to pay for the 717?


User currently offlineHalls120 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 4847 times:

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 26):
Same as credit card companies charging extra for bad credit customers, UA would find it hard to finance a purchase.

While people with bad credit pay higher interest rates, people that have emerged from bankruptcy often are inundated with extensions of credit from banks and other lenders.

My guess is that once UA emerges from bankruptcy, both A and B will be knocking at their door offering aircraft for post 2010 delivery, as UA needs both a 733 and 762 replacement.


25 Stitch : The A319 and A320 do a nice job of replacing the 733/735 and UA has already found a replacement for the 762 - their specialized p.s. 752s.
26 AirCanada014 : There's already a post somewhere about what airlines will order 787 or 350. We all believe it would be 787 since they have 767s.
27 MidnightMike : I never said anything about pay, but, I see what you are saying about the different pay scales for the different equipment. My line of thinking is th
28 FCKC : Perhaps all will depend how they will restructure after exit C11. Are we sure they will be the same kind of airline ? Somebody wrote above that the A3
29 MidnightMike : Where did that comment come from? It was not in this thread?
30 Tu154 : I vote for the 787........ boeing widebody, airbus narrow body fleet post UA b/k. and oh, by the way........Tilton won't be ordering any new a/c.....I
31 Post contains images Stitch : That would be me, and I'm just going with the published figures Boeing and Airbus provide for the 787-3 and the 787-8. And do note that I did say in
32 Zvezda : UA will not order either the A350 or the B787 until ALPA agree that they can be flown on the B757/B767 pay scale. Therefore, UA must position any A35
33 Birdbrainz : Where is this coming from? Everything I know about UA and the 757 is that they love them. I'm confused. They're certianly not getting rid of them.
34 DAYflyer : Considering the fact they can't afford to order anything for a while I say Airbus since they won't need new airplanes before 2012.
35 Stitch : One big advantage for UA is they will have plenty of data from operators of both aircraft to determine which one offers the best performance, so whic
36 Gigneil : Sure, the 787-3 is the smallest next-gen mid-size widebody. However, the 787-3 continues to anger me, despite people trying to convince me otherwise.
37 Post contains images Stitch : The 787-3 holds 30 more folks then the 763ER and the same as a 764ER in two-class configuration. So it is unlikely a 787-3 will fly 5% empty compared
38 Gigneil : She can't carry 10,000 gallons more fuel with any payload. The plane is limited to 3500 nm. Sure, it may have most of the tanks from the -8 onboard,
39 Tom12 : I think they will almost definetly go for the Boeing's. Boeing does have the price advantage and in terms of a/c i think Boeing has the better one. Ai
40 Gigneil : US was already welllll on their way to being an all Airbus customer. N
41 Zvezda : That's a good argument, but will ALPA agree to fly them at B757/B767 rates? It's not crazy. But I can't see UA buying any A350/B787 unless ALPA agree
42 Gigneil : The nice thing about having all the tanks is that Boeing could, on a whim, offer 4500 and 5500 nm 787-3s, including larger rudder and probably still e
43 Zvezda : There are other structural differences between the B787-3 and the B787-8. The keel is lighter and the wing skins are thinner. It might not be quite s
44 Gigneil : I bet they can get 4000 nm out of it. At least then it will feature the range performance of an AB6. N
45 Zvezda : That seems likely given Boeing's tendency to underpromise and overdeliver. DEN-HNL would be easy even at 3500nm. ORD-HNL is 3688nm, so westbound migh
46 Gigneil : I dunno if DEN-HNL would be "easy" with 3500nm... winter you get the awful winds, and summer you get the horrible density altitude problem. We'd have
47 Stitch : Good to know. I was going off WidebodyPhotog's 787 Family chart, and admit that all three aircraft had the same maximum fuel load listed confused the
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