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Frontier Airlines Long-Term Outlook  
User currently offlineMalaysia From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 3352 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5590 times:

Aside from the cash crunch, the Southwest invasion of DEN, and possibly high fuel prices, and the Independence Air bid rumors,

I was wondering what the real outlook looks for F9 in 2006?

would they go into more debt, but what is the real performance and is F9 a successful business model in some sense?


There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
55 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineATLFlyer323 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 615 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5577 times:

Quoting Malaysia (Thread starter):
would they go into more debt

Are they currently in debt? I thought that they made a slight profit this year and have a nice sum in the bank? Have I been misled?

Thanks,
~Brandon



Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25260 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5571 times:
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Quoting Malaysia (Thread starter):
Aside from the cash crunch

What cash crunch? They have over $200 million in the bank.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineATLFlyer323 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 615 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5559 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 2):
What cash crunch? They have over $200 million in the bank.

Ya I didnt think they were in any financial trouble.

~Brandon



Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5544 times:

Bigger airplanes I see, A321 it will be, learn from past mistakes they will (LAX), expand beyond DEN they must or else darkness I fear...

User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25260 posts, RR: 85
Reply 5, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5537 times:
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Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 4):
Bigger airplanes I see, A321 it will be, learn from past mistakes they will (LAX)

That's funny. Yoda Dlkapa? Or is it Obi Wan Durango?  Smile

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineMalaysia From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 3352 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5533 times:

My friend at work made suggestion that the $5 and the $8 for the DirectTV should be included in fare, he was like "would anyone notice"??


There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
User currently offlineMalaysia From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 3352 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5514 times:

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 4):
Bigger airplanes I see, A321 it will be, learn from past mistakes they will (LAX), expand beyond DEN they must or else darkness I fear...

Bring balance to Frontier, who will?  crossfingers 



There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25260 posts, RR: 85
Reply 8, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5505 times:
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Quoting Malaysia (Reply 6):
My friend at work made suggestion that the $5 and the $8 for the DirectTV should be included in fare, he was like "would anyone notice"??

If they wouldn't notice, what would be the point of doing it?

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineLambertMan From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2076 posts, RR: 35
Reply 9, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5498 times:

At least this thread is a question, no matter how broad it may be.

Instead, it could be titled something as tactful as:

Frontier: Bleak Outlook

Just having a little fun.......

Merry Xmas everyone


User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5483 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 5):
That's funny. Yoda Dlkapa? Or is it Obi Wan Durango?

The force luke mariner, use the force!


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25260 posts, RR: 85
Reply 11, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5478 times:
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Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 10):
luke mariner

Luke Mariner? I am truly flattered.

But does that make Lord Tilton my father - or Darth Brace?

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5466 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 11):
But does that make Lord Tilton my father - or Darth Brace?

Darth Bankruptcy Protection Judge?


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25260 posts, RR: 85
Reply 13, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5460 times:
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Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 12):
Darth Bankruptcy Protection Judge?

You're on fire today.  Smile

Actually, I was thinking about LAX - and you know, it wouldn't surprise me to see another little foray there.

They have applied for LAX/SJD - they may not get it, but if they do it is the sort of route that might - stress "might" - make LAX work for them.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5449 times:

How many mexican cities do they serve from LAX? I'd think if they really want to make LAX work for them again they're gonna need to have alot of Mexico before they start thinking about Intra- US flying from there.

User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4566 posts, RR: 18
Reply 15, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5438 times:

A news story I had seen stated F9 would look at a market smaller than that of LAX. My guess would be one of the cities where they have applied for CUN service. BNA possibly? Smack in the middle of the eastern half of the country much like Denver is in the western half. Decent market that isn't heavily overserved. F9 could set up a focus city there.


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25260 posts, RR: 85
Reply 16, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5374 times:
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Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 14):
How many mexican cities do they serve from LAX?

None from LAX - SJD would be the first. But United has applied for LAX/SJD and someone else - Delta?

Quoting Indy (Reply 15):
BNA possibly? Smack in the middle of the eastern half of the country much like Denver is in the western half.

There's been a strong rumor on the Yahoo stock board about BNA.

It will be interesting. They have half a dozen planes coming this year, starting in March, and gates at DIA Terminal A are at a premium.

There's a whole stack of other rumors, but I don't expect anything much of an announcement from Frontier until the new head of operations starts work in January.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5366 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 16):
There's a whole stack of other rumors, but I don't expect anything much of an announcement from Frontier until the new head of operations starts work in January.

"So uhh guys you know all those shiny new A319's we just got? Yeah, they're on their way out, we found it'd be cheaper to get some used DC-9's. We're just waiting for another operator to get rid of them but I gotta be honest, it'll be awile.

In the meantime, keep flying the 'busses, but they'll be just a stopgap..."

BNA is actually in prime position, little less than DIA from the west coast is to the east coast. Lotta WN though.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25260 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 5356 times:
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Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 17):
we found it'd be cheaper to get some used DC-9's.

He's not coming from Northwest - he's coming from JetBlue....  Smile

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 5345 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
He's not coming from Northwest - he's coming from JetBlue....

So... Who wants some Embraer?


User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5288 times:
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So... Who wants some Embraer?

Doubt it. The 190 hasn't been the easy deal that B6 had hoped for... people are calling it the 180, since that's what it does when it leaves the gate -- comes right back.

That said, the more that F9 becomes like B6 (with their new head of ops)... one has to wonder if/when F9 and B6 get more cozy.


User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5283 times:

Quoting Flashmeister (Reply 20):
Doubt it. The 190 hasn't been the easy deal that B6 had hoped for...

Actually I was just being facetious  Wink


User currently offlineNosedive From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5265 times:

From faremeasure.com
Top destinations from BNA-PAX per city pair(per day), airlines serving route nonstop:
Chicago, IL- 1,240- AA, UA, WN
Baltimore, MD- 785- WN
New York, NY- 711 AA, CO (didn't distinguish b/w NYC and EWR...)
Detroit, MI- 685 NW, WN
Philadelphia, PA- 465- US
Orlando/Kissimmee, FL- 547- WN
Los Angeles, CA- 544-AA, WN
Houston, TX- 513- CO, WN
Tampa/St. Petersburg/Lakeland, FL- 497-WN
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX- 444- AA
Raleigh/Durham, NC- 440-WN
Cleveland, OH- 432-WN
Las Vegas, NV- 425- WN
New Orleans, LA- 400- WN
Kansas City, MO- 396- WN
Ft. Lauderdale, FL- 380- WN
Seattle, WA- 347- WN
Denver, CO- 336- F9, UA
Phoenix, AZ- 301- WN

My picks for a small BNA focus city are in bold. And since F9 loves their animal commercials, it wouldn't be too hard to advertise with "Smokey"  Wink
...Uni of Tenn's mascot; yes I know UT is in Knoxville, but who advertises with Vanderbilt?


User currently offlineDL787932ER From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 597 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 5237 times:

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 22):
...Uni of Tenn's mascot; yes I know UT is in Knoxville, but who advertises with Vanderbilt?

Sounds like someone missed the UT-Vandy game this year  yes 

I've never looked at faremeasure.com, but I don't see how those numbers could be accurate. For example, the last city on the list is Phoenix, with just 301 average daily passengers, but ATL isn't on the list. DL operates 5X daily MD-88s, configured for 146 seats, on BNA-ATL, not counting 2x CR7s by EV. With 730 mainline seats/day, those flights would have to have less than 41% load factor to move <300 people/day, but every time I flew that route the planes were full (and they were using 752s). I'd guess there are other legacy hubs (maybe MSP or IAD?) that must get more than 300 pax/day from BNA.



F L Y D E L T A J E T S
User currently offlineAntoniemey From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1572 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (8 years 8 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 5231 times:

Hi all,

I've been lurking for awhile, just registered, this will be my first post.

Much as I would love to see a Frontier Focus City in BNA (Where I currently reside) the problem is space at the airport.

There is counter space available, but to expand by more than 1 gate (And they only have 1 right now) Frontier would have to move to the C concourse, opposite end of the airport from the available counter space. There are also no empty baggage claim offices, and Frontier and Independence both currently run baggage claim at their ticket counters.



Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
25 Nosedive : It's looking at O/D, orgin-destination, traffic numbers. Just because DL has 5 MD-88s on the BNA-ATL route does not mean all those passengers are onl
26 SunValley : Faremeasure is an inaccurate source for actual revenue boardings and is not used in analysis of actual city traffic. Sources available from the DOT ar
27 Post contains images Graham697 : Why be scared of them? If they come into your home then you are obviously allowed to enter and trash theirs
28 Georgiabill : Still think Frontier should add service from DEN to MHT and PVD. Take advantage of lower fees at MHT and PVD while taking advantage of the people who
29 Mcdu : Vandy has to win at least one in 100 games right? Are they still giving Vandy tickets to those that are caught speeding in BNA?
30 Post contains images Antoniemey : Maybe to the WN and UA Ex pilots that never slow down when they get groundside. (Never seen an RJ move as fast as the UA Express ones in BNA.) Of cou
31 Laxintl : For Frontier to thrive in my opinion it must shift away from a Denver centric operation. Not only are there physical limits on how much its future Den
32 Mariner : LAX/SJD would be that, if they get it. IND/CUN, which starts in March, would also be that. LAX/PHL and LAX/STL would have stayed but for the rocketin
33 Post contains images GentFromAlaska : I saw two part time CS positions advertised for BNA recently on the F9 website. Maybe something, maybe nothing.
34 Alphascan : Misexecuted is a strong word to use for F9's foray at a LAX focus city. Blindsided might be more accurate. The expansion into LAX was planned and ann
35 Post contains images Antoniemey : The BNA station has a fairly high turnover rate from what I've observed. All the people there are either brand new or been with the company since nea
36 Seatback : Please NO BNA! Why go into Southwest territory? For that matter, AA still has a large FF base there too. I don't think the market is large enough to o
37 Gigneil : Talk about not going into WN territory.... AUS is a major WN station. N
38 Airbrasil : I think F9 would be perfect if it creates and agreement with B6, routes, planes and ops would match very well! Airbrasil
39 Seatback : I know AUS is a major WN station, but they're currently not offering service to the markets noted. I'm not saying run from Southwest. BNA, I don't bel
40 MSYtristar : I would bet my life savings that the high turnover rate is due to the management at BNA. Let's just say that some of the mgmt there left/leaves a lot
41 Laxintl : I believe the failure of the LAX focus city had more to do with the inability to predict the very strong response of competing airlines in the city pa
42 Mariner : It is true that NWA went nuclear over LAX/MSP - they beefed up MSP/DEN and added, as you say, DEN/LAX. However, I could be wrong, but I don't remembe
43 Jetmek319 : Notice people would not. Illlegal it would be. Disguising fees dishonorable it be. JetYoda319!
44 Gigneil : Its not illegal to include the price of a service you provide in your fares... arguably, that's the place to do it. N
45 Jetmek319 : Tis' illegal not to mention it though, and simply add it in. The customer must have right of refusal.
46 Gigneil : I'm not actually sure that's true. Arguably, full service carriers factor in the costs of food into their fares, and I am sure that jetBlue factors th
47 Antoniemey : Were you by any chance in a training class in DEN around late June this summer? Curious since I was and washed out for being late too many times and
48 N200WN : You wouldn't see any leakage at all from SAT using AUS. It's too far with too much traffic. SAT is well served to most of the cities you listed. I wo
49 Alphascan : Ultimately, PHL didn't work. BNA has the tour operator contract to help fill the BNA/CUN seats. CAK and DAY are not point to point and thus have the
50 Flashmeister : You wouldn't see any leakage at all from SAT using AUS. It's too far with too much traffic. That may be true now that United Express is setting up sho
51 Mariner : Frontier still flies to PHL, so I think it is more truthful to say that LAX didn't work. Which we know. And with DEN/BNA? Which, I remember, went ver
52 Stl1326 : I would think the STL route is doing well. They are adding a fourth flight in March. Anyone else see any route increases/decreases from Frontier in o
53 Alphascan : M; I'm referring to F9's marketing in the out stations for non-DEN point to point flying. The marketing in DEN has been so well done that the DEN/XXX
54 MEMbase : No, not really. It's just so hard NOT to notice people wearing that obnoxious orange.
55 MSYtristar : You know, I think I was attending a recurrent GSC class in DEN in June, but so much stuff has happened since then, I can barely remember. We did have
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