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ANA And The A380  
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 9132 times:

Interesting read here. ANA is sying that it will phase out it's 747s and replace them with the 777-300ER. ANA is also saying that they have no plans to aquire the A380 in the near term, but if it feels they can't compete with those who do operate them, they will aquire them. No mention of the 747-800 at all here.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...oor+open+for+A380+despite+777.html


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52 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMidnightMike From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 2892 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 9069 times:

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
Interesting read here. ANA is sying that it will phase out it's 747s and replace them with the 777-300ER. ANA is also saying that they have no plans to aquire the A380 in the near term, but if it feels they can't compete with those who do operate them, they will aquire them. No mention of the 747-800 at all here.


You read the story too quickly, though, in your defense, it was confusing.



Quote:
“If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says.

In other words, ANA is playing it smart, if the ANA flys as published, they'll consider ordering it, but, as this point, there is no plan, as you noticed, ANA never said that can not compete against an A380 carrier.....



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User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12872 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 9050 times:
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Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 1):
You read the story too quickly, though, in your defense, it was confusing.

No he didn't - he said exactly the same thing as you "they have no plans to aquire the A380 in the near term, but if it feels they can't compete with those who do operate them, they will aquire them."  wink 



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User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9003 times:

I guess in the long run the Japanese carriers can't go around buying the A380 to handle increasing demand on routes with slot-restricted airports.

User currently offlineMidnightMike From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 2892 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8992 times:

Scbrimi

You added the word near, in fact, if you search the word near, it never appears..... Smile

[quote]ANA president and chief executive Mineo Yamamoto told Flight International at a Star Alliance chief executives’ gathering in Montreal last month that its medium-term fleet plan calls for the phase-out of the 747s and replacement by the 777-300ER due to the latter’s superior efficiency. Although it has no plans to acquire the A380 in the medium term, Yamamoto does not rule out an order for the aircraft in the longer term. “If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says.[quote]



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User currently offlineFrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3842 posts, RR: 11
Reply 5, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8978 times:

I still think many potential buyers are waiting for the A380 to enter commercial service to see how it 'behaves', especially regarding economics and dispatch reliability compared to what Airbus claims.
Especially since no aircraft has ever stirred so much controversy, rumors and hearsay as this one...

Airbus has not been building a good reputation regarding that during their last aircraft launch (A340-600/500)...



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User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8951 times:

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 5):
I still think many potential buyers are waiting for the A380 to enter commercial service to see how it 'behaves', especially regarding economics and dispatch reliability compared to what Airbus claims.
Especially since no aircraft has ever stirred so much controversy, rumors and hearsay as this one...

Airbus has not been building a good reputation regarding that during their last aircraft launch (A340-600/500)...

I agree. And the delay of the A380 has not improved the reputation too much.


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8896 times:

I do not think this represents a positive development for the A380...but not a negative one either. ANA is doing the same thing as Cathay Pacific, BA, and a number of airlines which is to wait and see if the A380 operators are able to skim the premium, high yield traffic from non-operators.

User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12872 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8891 times:
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Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 4):
You added the word near, in fact, if you search the word near, it never appears.....

We seem to be talking slightly at cross purposes - I cut and paste directly from Manni's opening post, not the link.



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User currently offlineMidnightMike From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 2892 posts, RR: 14
Reply 9, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8877 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8):
We seem to be talking slightly at cross purposes - I cut and paste directly from Manni's opening post, not the link.

Scbrimi

Oh, yeah, if cut & paste from Manni's quote, which was wrong in the first place, I understand how you made the mistake.... Best to go to the link, as what Manni said was wrong.....

No worries.....



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User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 10, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8828 times:

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 9):
Best to go to the link, as what Manni said was wrong.....

So the article says medium term, and I wrote near term. Big deal, and yes it was unintentionally. Near and medium are open to interpretation, and not limited to a certain amount of time.

We could however assume that 'medium' here is something in the vicinity of 3 years. In 3 years time the A380 will have flown 2 years in commercial service, I'd guess that's a reasonable amount of time for ANA to make up their balance, wether they can stay competitive or not without the A380. So 'medium' here could be as little as 3 years away.... Hmmm, that's pretty near, not?  Wink



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User currently offlineHalibut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8768 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 10):
We could however assume that 'medium' here is something in the vicinity of 3 years. In 3 years time the A380 will have flown 2 years in commercial service, I'd guess that's a reasonable amount of time for ANA to make up their balance, wether they can stay competitive or not without the A380. So 'medium' here could be as little as 3 years away.... Hmmm, that's pretty near, not?

Long term could also mean they will not consider the A380 ?! Since Boeing should annouce there next aircraft Y3 sometime next decade . In the Medium term ANA may consider the WhaleJet since there will not be another aircraft availible . ANA , being a Japanese airline will have a headsups on Boeing's next move !

Just my 2 cents .

Halibut


User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8686 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 3):
I guess in the long run the Japanese carriers can't go around buying the A380 to handle increasing demand on routes with slot-restricted airports.

True, but at the same time, you also have to consider that more and more people are using the Shinkansen bullet trains, giving Japanese Railways a constantly growing percentage vs airlines. There are more trains, and they even get faster still. And with all the hassle of driving to the airport, going through security and other stuff, there is a chance that neither JAL nor ANA will need the A380s capacity, as bullet trains have caught such a large percentage of traffic that a 773, or perhaps even a 772 would be more than enough. And international-wise, there are not that many routes that require an A380's capacity, and with ANA going towards three fleet members (737NG/787/777), IMHO it is doubtful they would then add a 4th subfleet again.


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 13, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8644 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):
True, but at the same time, you also have to consider that more and more people are using the Shinkansen bullet trains, giving Japanese Railways a constantly growing percentage vs airlines

Seeing how ANA talks about 'other carriers introduce the A380', I think they are talking about purchasing the A380 for their international network, should the need arise.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):
And international-wise, there are not that many routes that require an A380's capacity,

Many of these not so many routes will link with Tokyo.



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User currently offlineMohamed From Egypt, joined Jan 2006, 65 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8603 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):
And international-wise, there are not that many routes that require an A380's capacity, and with ANA going towards three fleet members (737NG/787/777), IMHO it is doubtful they would then add a 4th subfleet again.

You have to remember that Japan's Airport are quite slot restricted. Remember that Airlines like LH are trying to get Slots at Narita for years now, to make the Muenchen flight daily. The A380 is maybe about 60 or 70% bigger then the B773ER!

The article didn't colmpletley rule out the B747-8. Also it hasn't mentioned it, it maybe telling Boeing "propose it to us".

Quoting Halibut (Reply 11):
Since Boeing should annouce there next aircraft Y3 sometime next decade

Isn't Y3 a B773ER-B747-8 size aircraft? Also i don't think it will come soon, it would compketley kill off the B748



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User currently offlineBmacleod From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 2377 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8571 times:

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
ANA is sying that it will phase out it's 747s and replace them with the 777-300ER.

No surprise being a STAR member, they would follow AC. Come to think of it with ANA also ordering the 787, they will have very similar fleets...



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User currently offlineMidnightMike From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 2892 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8567 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 10):
So the article says medium term, and I wrote near term. Big deal, and yes it was unintentionally. Near and medium are open to interpretation, and not limited to a certain amount of time.

We could however assume that 'medium' here is something in the vicinity of 3 years. In 3 years time the A380 will have flown 2 years in commercial service, I'd guess that's a reasonable amount of time for ANA to make up their balance, wether they can stay competitive or not without the A380. So 'medium' here could be as little as 3 years away.... Hmmm, that's pretty near, not?

You are making your own news, medium term is a big difference from short term, and no we can not assume that medium means "3" years, as you said, it is open to interpretation.

All ANA said is that they are going to take the look & see approach with the A380, which is a good business decision.

[quote]ANA president and chief executive Mineo Yamamoto told Flight International at a Star Alliance chief executives’ gathering in Montreal last month that its medium-term fleet plan calls for the phase-out of the 747s and replacement by the 777-300ER due to the latter’s superior efficiency. Although it has no plans to acquire the A380 in the medium term, Yamamoto [b]does not rule out an order for the aircraft in the longer term.[/b] “If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says.[quote]



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User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 17, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8533 times:

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 16):
medium term is a big difference from short term

Did I say short term? I think I wrote near term. That's also different, short term seems a lot nearer than near term... but near term sems a lot nearer to medium term than short term seems to be to medium term.  crazy 



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User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8479 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):

Interesting points. The Shinkansen really have an interesting network. But I was rather talking about international flights. Like those to FRA, LHR, and North America.


User currently offlineHalibut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8470 times:

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 14):
Isn't Y3 a B773ER-B747-8 size aircraft? Also i don't think it will come soon, it would compketley kill off the B748

You'll really have to ask the Z-man that " Zvezda" . I'm not sure . However , I do recall him saying it could be around 450 pax .. So you are in fact correct !

Boeing's Y-3 aircraft " 450 pax " could hit the A380 hard , due to its far superior ecomomics and flexablity .

Halibut


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8436 times:

Quoting Halibut (Reply 19):
Boeing's Y-3 aircraft " 450 pax " could hit the A380 hard , due to its far superior ecomomics and flexablity .

Not enough pax and no superior economics.


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 21, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8435 times:

Quoting Halibut (Reply 19):
Boeing's Y-3 aircraft " 450 pax " could hit the A380 hard , due to its far superior ecomomics and flexablity .

No offense intended but... perhaps it should be a good idea to wait until more, or even anything is known about the so called 'Y3', before talking about his superior performance and flexability, not?



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User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8415 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 21):
No offense intended but... perhaps it should be a good idea to wait until more, or even anything is known about the so called 'Y3', before talking about his superior performance and flexability, not?

I agree with Manni on this one. The Y3 is a concept rather than the design for an airplane.

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 16):
You are making your own news, medium term is a big difference from short term, and no we can not assume that medium means "3" years, as you said, it is open to interpretation.

All ANA said is that they are going to take the look & see approach with the A380, which is a good business decision.

Agree with Mike. I do not see a difference between what they are saying and what British Airways and Cathay Pacific have stated about the A380. For ANA their chief concern must be the actions of JAL.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8412 times:

I've yet to see any airline ruling out the A380 in the longer term.

ANA & JAL don't seem unlikely customers.

At some point those 100 747s have to go.

Fuel is expensive, slots restricted

Traffic will more then double during this period.

Hard to avoid IMO.


User currently offlineHalibut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8360 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 20):
Not enough pax and no superior economics.



Quoting Manni (Reply 21):
No offense intended but... perhaps it should be a good idea to wait until more, or even anything is known about the so called 'Y3', before talking about his superior performance and flexability, not?



Quoting N79969 (Reply 22):
I agree with Manni on this one. The Y3 is a concept rather than the design for an airplane.

I picked a bad day to quit alcohol !  drunk 

I do not disagree with the your replys . I just feel that if Boeing goes forward with a 450 pax aircraft, say 10 years from now, it will be a threat to the current A380-800 .

Just my 2 cents .

Halibut


25 Thorben : Ten years will allow a lot of new technology, but 450 pax will still not be 550 pax by then.
26 WhiteHatter : if anything they would want to see what happens with the A389 when it finally appears. High capacity versions for their routes which could justify it
27 N79969 : Some of the reasons you cite seem like reasons to actually not buy the A380. If the price of fuel is going up, you don't want to buy a fleet of the l
28 LTU932 : Yes, but you do have to remember that JL and NH use their 747-400Ds and 747SR in a high density configuration. I believe on the 744D, those figures c
29 Post contains images Aerosol : N79969: You have not heard about the theory of econmies of scale, have you? The lets talk about nice operating systems from Seattle, or nice mobiles f
30 Halibut : What will take place in the coming years will most certainly be interesting to see what materializes in commercial aviation . The a380 , 777-200LR &
31 Stitch : How efficient would an A380 be for a short-haul run like HND-FUK? NH and JL went with the 777-300 because it carries 501 folks (per Boeing) in a singl
32 N79969 : If you read my post carefully you will see that I implicitly say that the economies of scale argument starts coming apart in some circumstances... Mu
33 Astuteman : FWIW Halibut, I don't think the current A380 will even be on offer 10 years from now. The A380's being offered in 10 years time will be a much differ
34 Halibut : True, However , its sounds like an exspensive endeavour for a small market . Maybe not ! The A380 being offered currently will be delivered into earl
35 Mohamed : I diasagree Partly. It was mentioned earlier that trains are gaining market share in Japan. Add to that the B773 seems just perfect as a VLA for dome
36 FCKC : The strategic year for the A380 will be 2007 , after one year of full scheduled services.We all will see how it performs. Do not expect too many order
37 DAYflyer : It doesn't happen very often, but here I have to agree with you.
38 Astuteman : Even though the A380 is my personal favourite, I have to say I agree with you, hence my comment. I don't think Airbus can afford not to apply some of
39 Dougloid : Are you speaking about White Star Lines and the RMS Titanic?
40 Post contains images ConcordeBoy : ...for a Frenchman, you seem to have a rather short memory:
41 LTU932 : You've got a point. BTW, I was always under the impression that VLAs are only aircraft like the 747 or A380. I'm still new to that term, so I'd appre
42 Ikramerica : most major cruise lines have ships larger than this these days. it was poor design and poor navigation that caused the wreck, not a bad concept.
43 Post contains images MBJ2000 : Has anyone considered the fact that it was a japanese(!) CEO who made that comment. Japanese would never say a direct 'no' but definitely mean it. Act
44 DfwRevolution : IMO, this is no change in ANA's stance, and thus, not "news" at all. There position has long been, they will continue evaluating the A380 during and
45 Manni : With the 748 recently launched an eventual succesor could be atleast 10 years away. I doubt ANA will wait for that. Boeings current answer to the A38
46 N79969 : Let's think this through. Why would ANA buy the A380? Are the lower seat mile costs the big draw? I think the answer is clearly "no." If that were re
47 DfwRevolution : Did you feel the need to insert the last word, because you basically repeated verbatum what I said:
48 N79969 : A thought just to occured to me. As I said above, ANA's chief competitive challenge is JAL. If JAL goes for A380s so they can offer provide some uniq
49 DistantHorizon : Really?! When ANA is admitting it may buy the plane, then anything is possible!... Maybe Israel is next! I believe Boeing already did, long ago. ANA
50 Kangar : There is one key here: if the A380 ends up delivering what Airbus promised. If it does, I genuinely see a glut of orders for it. It may create an over
51 N79969 : Nice way to selectively quote to distort my point. Go look at their long-term plan, the 747s are on the way out. If the price of crude oil were to fa
52 Tifoso : You are inherently making the assumption here that airlines are not ordering the aircraft only because of performance concerns. There is also the pos
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