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How Will Aer Lingus Expand Long-haul Fleet?  
User currently offlineEIN145 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 4591 times:

With short-haul services expanded almost as much as they can be with almost all new A320s delivered and good utilization being achieved, I wonder with all the chatter about expanding long-haul how they intend to get more equipment?

I remember reading in Airliner world several times that announcements regarding a long-haul aircraft order were imminent, but we have yet to see one. Whether they opt for Boeing or, probably more likely in the EI situation, Airbus equipment they will be waiting a while for deliveries.

Even at present their long-haul ops are easily disrupted and we frequently see Air Plus Comet, North American and Corsair among others filling in when an A330 calls in sick.

Used A330s would be the obvious way to go but the market isn't exactly flush with them. There was a thread on here before that they looked at some Air Transat A330's and EI's QA people were not happy with them. Also, I imagine they would probably want engine commonality with the existing birds, would they not?

I see that the service to Dubai is considered an expansion but it is only at the expense of capacity on the Atlantic routes. What are the likely options open to Aer Lingus to get more aircraft pending an order and delivery of new ones. I think it is safe to assume that any interim measure is going to have to be A330/A340...but maybe not...

Let's not turn this into another A-v-B they both make great aircraft!

33 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEirjet From Ireland, joined Jul 2005, 330 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 4576 times:

I think an annoucement on EI's long haul fleet is due in the coming months (for real this time)

It has being mentioned that the A350 will be the a/c of choice, and that deal could see EI fly A340's to cover EI's services until the A350's arrive.

Someone may confirm this?

Eirjet



Aviation has a 100% record, we've never left one up there......
User currently offlineSmokeyrosco From Ireland, joined Dec 2005, 2112 posts, RR: 13
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 4508 times:

Quoting EIN145 (Thread starter):
Even at present their long-haul ops are easily disrupted and we frequently see Air Plus Comet, North American and Corsair among others filling in when an A330 calls in sick.

Air Plus Comet is regularly seen in Dublin for many airlines, they seem to be able to drop a 747 into Dublin at the drop of a hat if needed, I handled one of these (742 I think it was) during the summer, they had the aircraft on the ground in Dublin in less then 12 hours notice. Although I'm almost sure EI got an Air Plus comet when the 330's met this time last year and I have seen one on the ground a couple of months ago which was to substitute a tech aircraft.

North American is often seen in Dublin also as American Troops are carried through Dublin from time to time. I don't remember EI ever using them but that's not to say it hasn't happened

Quoting Eirjet (Reply 1):
I think an annoucement on EI's long haul fleet is due in the coming months (for real this time)

It has being mentioned that the A350 will be the a/c of choice, and that deal could see EI fly A340's to cover EI's services until the A350's arrive.

I tend to agree, as I've already said in other threads I reckon this deal is done it's just a matter of financing, as for what aircraft they will get in the interim that's a little tougher to gauge but I do know that DM wants 3 aircraft by the end of the year to cover while he waits for the 350 (or 787 but probably not) to come on line.



John Hancock
User currently offlineGearup From Canada, joined Dec 2000, 578 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4373 times:

Quoting Eirjet (Reply 1):
It has being mentioned that the A350 will be the a/c of choice, and that deal could see EI fly A340's to cover EI's services until the A350's arrive.

A question: Would an A340 (300 presumably) be able to operate out of Dublin at Max gross weight?

GU



I have no memory of this place.
User currently offlinePilot21 From Ireland, joined Oct 1999, 1384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4363 times:

An annoucement is suppose to come sometime this yr on the long-haul fleet replacement, but nothing can happen until EI has financing in place to pay for the expansion, hence the public listing due to happen sometime this yr.
In relation to what happens to the fleet in the meantime, it is known DM wants more aircraft, and with the new EU-US open skies agreement in place from next yr (assuming no issues arise) EI will want to serve their 3 new routes to the US ahead of that becoming fully operational. A330's can't be found for love nor money at the moment, so the possible ideas would be: A340's (there was mention of EI taking some of AC's aircraft once they start to receive their B777's) but if they can't find A330/A340's is there any chance they'd look at B767's again for a short term lease? (I'd say a short term B744 lease would be impractical, and are there any B777's readily available to lease?)



Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12408 posts, RR: 37
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 4318 times:

DM said in November that the order would be placed within two months, so I'm actually expecting it before the end of this month.

As you rightly say, the competition is for aircraft to be delivered from 2010 onwards, so it's a 787 -V- A350 competition and frankly, one has to say that the A350 must be the front runner. EI also has a requirement for 13 more 32Xs (DM has said the total requirement is 42; they now have 27, with 2 more on order), so presumably Airbus can put a plan together for them.

EI's long haul requirement will ultimately be around 16 aircraft, but building up gradually from the current 7; the current 333s also need to be replaced, as they cannot - for weight reasons - be retrofitted with modern IFE. Basically, the manufacturer that can provide the best interim arrangement will have a head start. If Boeing can provide 777s, that may do the trick. It doesn't matter what's available right now, as they don't need new aircraft until Sept/Oct and then, they could get away with two and then add more for Summer 2007.

A340s would be easier to integrate into the fleet, as they will have pilot commonality (subject to a short cross crew training course) and although they can't use DUB at MTOW, they can be used on routes currently operated by the 333 - as far as ORD and possibly MIA/MCO. Only one of the three new US routes will be to the west coast (SFO); the others will be to MIA or MCO and another - BWI would be my prediction.

The DXB route might be increased in frequency, but they'd have a better chance of being able to do that if they got their scheduling right! The return from DXB leaves at about 00.10 and gets into DUB at 5.20am. If they kept the aircraft at DXB and left (along with EK departures - since they are interlining with them) at about 7am, they could get back to DUB at around 11.30-12.00 and provide a far more effective feed to t/a flights.

Anyway, here's hoping to see white smoke from EI HQ by the end of the month!


User currently offlineShamrock350 From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 6321 posts, RR: 14
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 4292 times:

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 4):
Anyway, here's hoping to see white smoke from EI HQ by the end of the month!

 crossfingers 
The waiting is getting me more than anything else, I dont care what EI get just so they announce it soon. Well really I would like A340s or 777s and more A330s.

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 4):
(there was mention of EI taking some of AC's aircraft once they start to receive their B777's)

I would have thought that too, but not much have been said in the past few weeks.


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12408 posts, RR: 37
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4267 times:

That's still a possibility, although with the problems over AC's 777 order, the delivery of its first 777 has been pushed into '07. That said, I understand that AC has leases ending on two of its aircraft later this year; if that were the case, then that would be fine.

Don't forget that we're barely out of the first fortnight of the year, so a lot can happen between now and September/October and if new opportunities present themselves, they can be seized upon. That said, of course, EI needs to plan asap for the coming Winter season.


User currently offlineAeroTycoon From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 101 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4264 times:

EI won't buy Boeing, plain and simple.

User currently offlinePilot21 From Ireland, joined Oct 1999, 1384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4231 times:

There is another post talking about TAP taking 3 ex-Bluewings A332's which are in storage. The deal hasn't been finalised, and new rumours (again mentioned on the post) say that 3 airlines are in the race to lease the aircraft, with SWISS and ??? (maybe EI) rumoured to be the other candidates.


Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
User currently offlineSmokeyrosco From Ireland, joined Dec 2005, 2112 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4219 times:

Quoting AeroTycoon (Reply 8):
EI won't buy Boeing, plain and simple.

Can someone tell me about the whole 767 thing? because as far as I know there was a deal that went sour which is why there is pics of EI 767's on A.net.



John Hancock
User currently offlineEIN145 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4211 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 5):
as they cannot - for weight reasons - be retrofitted with modern IFE

That is so interesting, I was wondering why they never installed new IFE on those a/c.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 5):
If they kept the aircraft at DXB and left (along with EK departures - since they are interlining with them) at about 7am, they could get back to DUB at around 11.30-12.00 and provide a far more effective feed to t/a flights.

I wondered about this myelf, I imagine that the problem is not slots in Dubai more brains in EIHQ. I know they have a clear preference for O&D traffic but they should at least leave their options open on getting a slice of the USA-DXB traffic.

So, it seems as though we might see some A340s as a temporary measure. I'm guessing EI don't have a more lasting interest in the A340.


User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2171 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4201 times:
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How about using some max-weight A321-200s for DUB-BOS or DUB-NY? Airbus claim the A321-200 can fly Paris-Boston nonstop with 185 pax...


Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlineEIN145 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4190 times:

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 12):
How about using some max-weight A321-200s for DUB-BOS or DUB-NY? Airbus claim the A321-200 can fly Paris-Boston nonstop with 185 pax...

Really, the A321 can do that? Either way the lack of cargo capacity would be too much for EI.


User currently offlineBtriple7 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 1160 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4178 times:

Quoting Gearup (Reply 3):
A question: Would an A340 (300 presumably) be able to operate out of Dublin at Max gross weight?

No. At max gross weight an A343 would not be able to use DUB's runways. Maybe if the plane wasn't fully loaded (JFK or BOS routes?) it could operate out of DUB, but otherwise no.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 5):

Another great post by Kaitak.  bigthumbsup 

Quoting AeroTycoon (Reply 8):
EI won't buy Boeing, plain and simple.

Although Airbus has the upper hand, don't rule out Boeing altogether. If Boeing can put forward a good enough deal, EI will take it. EI is more concerned about good aircraft for a good price rather than loyalty to a particular manufacturer.

That said; I do, however, think Airbus has won this one. The A350 meets and exceeds the demands that EI has put forth. The only problem is that the A350 is not due to be available till at least 2010. Until then EI is going to have to look for an alternative, and this is where Boeing could step in and take the prize.


Personally, I don't care which plane EI orders. As long as they bring their product up to standards (modern IFE, revamped biz class, etc.), I'm happy.

Regards,
Btriple7



Just...fly.
User currently offlineBtriple7 From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 1160 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4124 times:

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 10):
Can someone tell me about the whole 767 thing? because as far as I know there was a deal that went sour which is why there is pics of EI 767's on A.net.

I remeber EI321 posted this post about the 767's breif history with EI. Maybe someone else can go into more detail.

Regards,
Btriple7



Just...fly.
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 16, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 4005 times:

Quoting EIN145 (Reply 11):

That is so interesting, I was wondering why they never installed new IFE on those a/c.

Yes, remember the EI A333s are very build aircraft that were built to the specs of Air Inter, the French domestic carrier.....they are very light versions and range can be a bit of an issue with these aircraft....after all, the Air Inter had planned to fly the A333s on very short domestic French segments. The A333s have just enough range to operate the DUB/SNN-East Coast routes without issues, but adding equipment and weight to the A333s would compromise range or payload. Thus, no IFE upgrades.

Quoting AeroTycoon (Reply 8):
EI won't buy Boeing, plain and simple.

Why? EI was a long time 737 operator (and also flew the 720s before that)....there is no reason that EI would not order Boeing aircraft.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 12):
How about using some max-weight A321-200s for DUB-BOS or DUB-NY? Airbus claim the A321-200 can fly Paris-Boston nonstop with 185 pax...

Maybe on paper, its would be possibile to fly the A321 from Ireland to Boston.....but in real life it would be very problematic, especially on the westbound journey where winds are an issue. The A321 is not the right airplane for this mission.

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 10):

Can someone tell me about the whole 767 thing? because as far as I know there was a deal that went sour which is why there is pics of EI 767's on A.net.

I also dont remember the exact details, but EI bought two 763ERs for longrange operations (I think that the aircraft were intended for the DUB-LAX route).......but EI determined not to launch the route back then (at the last minute) because of issues with the SNN stopover rule (which EI had thought they had worked out but the govt saw the issue differently at the last minute). The aircraft were then leased out and subsequently sold as EI simply did not need the type at the time. I dont think that EI had any specific problem with Boeing or the 763, the aircraft came and went due to other factors.

-------------

My opinion is that Aer Lingus could go many different ways with its longhaul fleet replacement.......and there is a good chance that Boeing could get the order with the 787. EI operating a large A32X narrow body fleet does not guaranty that the A350 will be selected.....time will tell.


User currently offlineAeroTycoon From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 101 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 3955 times:

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 16):
Why? EI was a long time 737 operator (and also flew the 720s before that)....there is no reason that EI would not order Boeing aircraft.

Don't forget the 747 too! Those were the days.

Why do I think that Boeing has little chance? Ireland will go with the EU company. Aer Lingus is government subsidized, so I'm thinking the government will send the money over to their neighbors at Airbus.

And they've been buying only Airbus for the last few years.

If politics weren't an issue, I'd say that Aer Lingus would be a contender for the 787.



AeroTycoon dollarsign  dollarsign 


User currently offlineSmokeyrosco From Ireland, joined Dec 2005, 2112 posts, RR: 13
Reply 18, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3934 times:

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 16):
Aer Lingus could go many different ways with its longhaul fleet replacement.......and there is a good chance that Boeing

I don't normally make statments without back up but EI won't go boeing, as much as i'd love to see a 777 and more so a 787 in EI colours it's not going to happen..... there is something about EI and it's transatlantic route(s) have always been a big deal for boeing and airbus.... well thats the rumor..... either way i firmly belive this is going to be 35x all the way.



John Hancock
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12408 posts, RR: 37
Reply 19, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3825 times:

Politics is NOT going to be an issue; EI will buy what it's fleet specialists negotiate; I expect this to be Airbus - but not because it's told or forced to; it will be because EI has A320s and needs more and also because the interim fleet, whether A330s or A340s - will be easily integrate. If Airbus can't do that and Boeing comes up with a better deal (assuming they don't regard EI as too fluffy for them!!! - see recent thread!), then it has a chance.

However, Airbus has a need for non-fluffy customers (I just can't keep a straight face typing that!. I can just picture Finns walking around the AY HQ saying "do I look fluffy to you?".) Joking apart, Airbus needs EI much more than Boeing does and if it can't reel in Aer Lingus for the 350, it will have a poor chance elsewhere.

Yours fluffily,

Kaitak


User currently offlineShamrock350 From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 6321 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3715 times:

Is the 787 too small for EI and the 787-900 to far away? What about the size of the A350 it is bigger than the A330-300 but is the A350-900 possible?

User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12408 posts, RR: 37
Reply 21, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3690 times:

The 788 is probably too smalll; the 789, I think, would be just right. The 787-10 would be even better. The 78-10 and 359 seat around the same number of pax. However, the 787-10 isn't going to be available until about 2012-13, whereas the 359 will be available in around 2012. Not much difference there.

The above configuration is, however, based on 8 abreast on both types; if EI were to go long haul low cost, they could offer 9 abreast on the 787, but not on the 350, which would give EI a very considerable advantage. Although many might object to 10 abreast on a 777 (which is around the same seat width as 9 abreast on a 787), I've experienced it on EK and it's not that bad at all - particularly when you have a decent IFE. Also, long haul low cost is the wave of the future, so it may well be best to get an aircraft that can cope with that. I'm not saying that the 350 couldn't - just that the 787 could do it better.

Remember that over the next few years, EI is going to come under increasing pressure from FR at DUB and indeed, that FR may one day develop a long haul low cost, so it's all the more important that EI gets into the market and does it right first time. No screw ups (like, for example, the DXB scheduling) - get the right airplane - applying the same principle as applies to short haul: the most fuel efficient aircraft with the greatest seating capacity - and one which can operate from DUB without restrictions.

The opening date for the new runway at DUB is now moving outwards from 2011/2 to 2013 and there's no sign of any intention to extend the current runway, so EI needs an aircraft which can operate at its full potential "out of the box".


User currently offlineShamrock350 From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 6321 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3655 times:

I can see Aer Lingus doing well on the low cost long haul thing. I just hope they get it right! It's working well, now with very low fares and people are now saying things like "for the price it was a great flight even with bad IFE" so it sounds like passengers are already accepting Aer Fungus as a low fare long haul airline.

User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12408 posts, RR: 37
Reply 23, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3641 times:

Some time ago, one of our members - Widebodyphotog. - posted a superb comparison between the 772, 787-10 and A350-900, which gives a very interesting comparison between the three types and of course, the latter three in particular.

The 787-10 has a bigger, longer and wider cabin; the 787-10 has a cabin length of 179', 17' longer than the 772 and 9' longer than the A359.

The 787's fuselage is 216" wide, vs. 231" for the 777 and 208" for the A350.

The 787-10 also a maximum payload of 58,600kgs, vs. 49,000kgs for the 359.

If you're trying to set up a long haul low cost operation, these kind of differences make a big, big difference and given that QF is planning long haul low cost for Jetstar Intl, that is particularly significant.

To take the configuration given for the 350 (12+42+246) and the 787 (12+54+240), the Y class configuration is roughly 30 rows; however, if you add 30 more rows to the 787 configuration, that's a hell of a lot of extra revenue (not to mention the extra Business Class seats) there and that adds up to a lot of extra revenue over the plane's lifetime.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 7987 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (8 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3636 times:

I think EI will probably make its A350-900 order official within the next few months. With its 7,500 nautical mile still-air range, the A350-900 can fly to most of EI's desired long-range international destinations non-stop year-round. This means EI could increase its services to the USA, probably with more flights to places like ORD, LAX, SFO, etc.

25 MD90fan : Like Finnair? About time somebody gets these birds
26 Aerlinguscargo : Ive been hearing SFO, ATL and FLL.
27 Pilot21 : I'd be very surprised if ATL was on the list given Delta have about 15yrs lead time on this route, plus it is very popular for connections to Souther
28 Btriple7 : I'm not doubting you or anything, but ATL or FLL?! Those don't seem like destinations that EI would be after, especially ATL. They would be directly
29 BoeingBus : Hmmm.... I see it as Airbus will be threatened by Boeing on a competitive bid. Airbus can't afford to lose another wide body customer. Therefore, Airb
30 Post contains images HZ747300 : EI will go for the Boeing 787 with its advanced avionics and vastly superb efficiency to update its long haul fleet. The reason I believe this is that
31 Aerlinguscargo : Well i said that was what I was hearin because thats exactly it. Talk among some of the Aer Lingus guys brought out those three destinations. Like it
32 Toulouse : Xecellent and totally unfluffy post Kaitax! Totally agree with you. Sounds familiar. A bit like Boeing and the ANA order? And I really don't think po
33 EI321 : In reality the situation is very different though. Has it crossed your mind that EI (and TAP for that matter) just might actually want to buy the A35
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