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A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia  
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 15051 times:

Aboulafia also said Airbus needs to win several blue chip orders for its planned A350. Even though Airbus received 87 firm orders for that plane in 2005, only one customer, International Lease Finance Corp., would be considered a top-tier customer. It ordered 12 planes.

Aboulafia recalled how Boeing, in the early days of 787 sales two years ago, announced an order from Primaris. The planned Las Vegas airline still does not exist.

Airbus has too many A350 orders from airlines such as TAM Linhas Aereas, which has ordered 10, Aboulafia said.

"It's all fluff," Aboulafia said. "They need a Singapore or an Emirates."


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/256050_air18.html

[Edited 2006-01-19 01:46:50]

240 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineGkirk From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24964 posts, RR: 56
Reply 1, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14998 times:

A customer is a customer, surely?
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?

In summary?
Aboulafia is an idiot



When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
User currently offlineNorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14973 times:

Severe flaming in 3, 2, 1.......

User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14951 times:

I agree with his reasoning. His poor choice of words was too blunt for a newspaper interview though.

If Boeing counted the Chinese 737 order using the Airbus method, it seems they would have won the unit count as well as the dollar count. I am not sure why Boeing did not raise the point but I am glad they did not. It would be petty.

But I say let Airbus enjoy its moment. If they want to count that claim a win over Boeing, then so be it.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 4, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14951 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
"It's all fluff," Aboulafia said. "They need a Singapore or an Emirates."

will be interesting to see what happens if SQ, EK go Boeing...but there are others, lots of others actually....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineETStar From Canada, joined Jan 2004, 2103 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14945 times:

A report/story that is quite expected to come from the Seattle PI, Boeing's manufacturing homegrown paper, which is very pro Boeing and has a large readership of Boeing employees... At any rate, an order is an order, does not matter where it came from, as at the end of the day, both manufacturers look at the gross numbers...

User currently offlineNirvarma From New Zealand, joined May 2005, 110 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14929 times:

Interesting article. I guess those who feel Aboulafia has a bias towards airbus will have more ammunition.
I did find the following interesting though..
The Chinese government in 2005 also announced that it would buy 150 jets from Boeing. Baseler said Boeing counted 50 of those as orders in 2005 from six airlines. The remaining 100 should be booked this year once the airlines have signed contracts, he said.


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14928 times:

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?

This is not about how Boeing or Airbus treats their customers. It's about whether the A350 is a viable competitor to the 787. Sure, the A350 had a good first year, but that was the "low hanging fruit." Can they get the stuff on tree tops?


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14912 times:

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
A customer is a customer, surely?
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?



Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
In summary?
Aboulafia is an idiot

No he is not. He is ultimately right. Some customers are more valued than others because by choosing your product, they raise the profile of your product. Companies such as QF and SQ are premier airlines and Airbus is (rightly) bragging that it will supply their flagship airplane.


User currently offlineCalags From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 47 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 14902 times:

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
Aboulafia is an idiot

Far from it actually. In his line of business being so quotable and frank is a plus rather than a minus. I daresay he deliberately makes such provocative statements to ensure that he gets printed. Furthermore, sticking his neck out like that is perceived as supreme confidence in his assertions helping to ensure that his clients will be willing to put up the moolah for the Teal Group's products. Nice job if you can get it, really.

Of course, if he is proven wrong more often than correct will eventually make such clients unwilling to pay up. The fact that he's been around for a while and the press seeks out his comments suggests he's batting better than the average a.nutter.

Leonard


User currently offlineCruiser From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1001 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14866 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 4):

will be interesting to see what happens if SQ, EK go Boeing...but there are others, lots of others actually....

SQ will likely go Boeing whereas EK is still in the 'could go either way' category. There are a few more blue chip customers, but many of them won't be ordering for a few more years which will allow Airbus to really get their act together.

James



Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14856 times:

Firmed, booked orders are anything but fluff. The A350 is anything but fluff.

What is true is Airbus could use a strong, blue-chip customer that firmly validates the A350 is a legitimite 787 competitor.

Boeing has these major customers on-board with the 787:

- Air India
- Air Canada
- Northwest
- Continental
- Qantas
- Japan Airlines
- All Nippon Airlines
- Korean Airlines

Airbus has these major customers on-board the A350:

- Qatar
- US Airways

Signing Aeroflot, Aer Lingus, LH, and other strong candidates and winning either/or the EK and SQ order may be what Airbus needs to accomplish this. Losing both EK and SQ would be a horrible mark of (lack of) confidence in the A350 program. It would years for Airbust to recover momentum if Boeing won both those orders.

EK and SQ are crucial strategic orders in the coming months.


User currently offlineTrvlr From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 21
Reply 12, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14828 times:

I wouldn't go so far as to call orders from TAM, TAP, and Finnair "fluff". While not huge airlines, they have proven business models. Nevertheless, the A350 certainly needs "an Emirates" to inspire more confidence, not to mention make the it profitable in the first place.

As with the Primaris 787 order, I would be most worried about orders from the likes of ALAFCO, Bangkok Airways or Kingfisher. Ditto USAirways (but not for the same reasons). Banking on too many airlines/organizations which have yet to prove their worth in the A350 market is risky.

Aaron G.


User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5948 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14826 times:

Hmmmm.

I think he's right- for the A350 to be considered a valid aircraft, some blue-chip airline will have to order it.

BY THE SAME TOKEN, I seem to remember Boeing booking several no-name airlines (okay, maybe LOW-name would be better) early on. Granted, ANA launched, and they're big. A lot bigger than... Air Europa. But Blue Panorama? First Choice? Yeah, they're viable, but they're not big names like Air France or British... neither of which have placed orders for the 787 to this day.

So, yes I agree, but I think it also applied to the 787 at one point, before the big guys (CO, NW, etc) came in.

Who's ever heard of Air Europa anyways? Come to think of it, Finnair, Qatar, and US are the only respectable airlines on the A350 list. And my putting US on the list of 'respectable' is... kind of me.

Hmm...


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 14, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14781 times:

Quoting Cruiser (Reply 10):
SQ will likely go Boeing whereas EK is still in the 'could go either way' category. There are a few more blue chip customers, but many of them won't be ordering for a few more years which will allow Airbus to really get their act together.

well..if Boeing does go they way of the 787-10 (which seems highly likely), I would think that EK will go with Boeing..they have been badgering Boeing since 2004 and they have been rather consistent in 2005 about Boeing building the it, and I think thats part of the reason as to why they didn't order the A350......

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 11):

Boeing has these major customers on-board with the 787:

you can include NZ, ILFC to those majour customers.....not to mention, LO and AI have ordered it also...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlinePITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3256 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14770 times:

The thing from the article that grabbed my attention is that Boeing sold more than twice as many widebodies as Airbus.

Another great year for the A-320. But I'd take the domination in the widebody category any day.

[Edited 2006-01-19 02:19:11]


FLYi
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14761 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 13):
I seem to remember Boeing booking several no-name airlines

But the point is they got some BIG name airlines too: NH, AI, AC, QF, NW, KE, JL...


User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4468 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14743 times:

Actually, this gentleman works for the TEAL group which basically looks over the aircraft manufacturing world and reports on it. Mr. Aboulafia has been around for several years and his opinion is highly respected.

[Edited 2006-01-19 02:37:25]


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5799 posts, RR: 28
Reply 18, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14730 times:

Quoting ETStar (Reply 5):
A report/story that is quite expected to come from the Seattle PI, Boeing's manufacturing homegrown paper, which is very pro Boeing and has a large readership of Boeing employees...

I'll take your word for it that you've read the PI on a regular basis, but I'll just say this: Both the PI and the Times have been very willing to trash the local companies, be it Boeing, Microsoft, Alaska Airlines, etc. in the name of being "above bias". In the end, some would say that they are actually tougher on these companies than some other more distant publications.

Suffice it to say, if you think the local papers are giving Boeing a pass on anything, your IMHO mistaken. They will post the good news, but they will also post the bad.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2413 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14689 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 18):
Suffice it to say, if you think the local papers are giving Boeing a pass on anything, your IMHO mistaken. They will post the good news, but they will also post the bad.

Yes, I remembering them reporting the orders at the Paris airshow and how Airbus got more. It is really not a bias newspaper.


User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14642 times:

Sorry but there's no way you can compare TAM with Primaris.

One has a large fleet which includes A330's. One does not exist.

I'd certainly consider QR pretty high profile too.

He sounds like a bit of an idiot. Not saying he is one, he has some valid points, he just sounds like one.


User currently offlineSonic67 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 292 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14595 times:

I had thought Airbus had won the Aeroflot order but according to Flight international seems that they are leaning towards the 787.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...+towards+Boeing+787+selection.html


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14593 times:

USAirways is a good name but the terms of the deal are not real sweet for Airbus. Basically Airbus lent HP/US $250 million last year with one of the conditions being a 20 aircraft order 6 years down the road. That's not quite money in the bank.

TAM, TAP, Finnair are not bad airlines...that is not what he is saying. He is not judging airlines. Rather he is assessing the quality of A350's market position relative 787 based on the size of the customers and orders. Clearly no one would dispute that Lufthansa is a far more important customer to Airbus than Finnair or Druk Air or whatever. When they buy, they buy lots and the planes are seen in most corners of the planet.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 23, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14585 times:

what I found interesting was Leahy saying that Boeing had only sold 45-50 (whatever the number was) when the 787 was launched (thus no big deal with weak A350 sales)....but there are two BIG differences..

1)right now, air carriers do have the choice between two next-generation aircraft, where as when Boeing launched the 787, a carrier didnt' really have a choice of a competing product.....the A330 is a great plane, but its not a so-called "next generation" plane which touts the efficiency of better engines and composites to the extent the 787 and A450 do...

2) the BIGGEST factor here is oil....back when the 787 was introduced, oil was in the $30's/barrel, now its in the $60's/barrel...and yet sales of the A350 haven't ramped up to reflect this....

thus, I think yet once again, Leahy is off the mark with his statements........



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 14540 times:

Quoting CX747 (Reply 17):
Mr. Aboulafia has been around for several years and his opinion is highly respected.

Wasn't Aboulafia a severe critic of Boeing during the Condit Administration? His comments, like those any other "analyst," should be taken with a grain of salt, but I don't think he brings any bias towards a particular OEM to the table.

From Seattle PI article:

"...Countered Boeing's Baseler:

"Even if the A350 goes toe to toe with the 787, what are they (Airbus) going to do for 300 seats and above ...

"The headline today is that Airbus beat Boeing again in orders. But at the end of the day, a month or two from now, everyone will have forgotten the headline and will be writing about what Airbus has to do to shore up their poor performance in widebodies."

Seems like Baseler wants to match some of Leahy's trash-talk at yesterday's Airbus press conference.

IIRC, when questioned about missing his "200 orders, ummm...I mean 200 orders and commitments [that little gaff was quite amusing]," by the end of 2005 forecast for the A350, didn't Leahy say something akin to:

We've got 172 "orders and committments" at a point when our competitor had only 64, they've got P.R., we've got backlog?


25 BigB : Air Europa is a solid airline in Europe. Based in Spain. They codeshare with CO on some transatlantic routes.
26 Leelaw : Having been a regular reader of the Seattle PI for almost twenty years, I agree with PlanesNTrains assessment. Airbus partisans who accuse the Seattl
27 Anxebla : Abouidiot could call himself. Oh My God!! if even Randy Baseler, Boeing's vice president of marketing is less fanatic than this guy called Aboulafia.
28 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Or they will get the deal of a lifetime on the A350, which would not surprise me at all. As the number of big candidates for the 787/A350 dwindles in
29 HZ747300 : Biggest misconception in business. You treat big customers like gold, because they have leverage and resources to be picky. You treat small customers
30 Glacote : I missed this. Could you please elaborate on this? How many orders and commitments did Boeing dispose for 2006?
31 N79969 : I do not think anyone including Aboulafia would argue that Air Europa is a bad airline. I am sure it is great. So it Midwest Express apparently. That
32 PlanesNTrains : That's some expensive fluff! -Dave
33 Abba : He absolutely is. Some of what he writes is so bad that you have to read a.net to get anything worse. He seems a hero or guardian saint for the usual
34 Post contains images Anxebla : Then you are agree with me, aren't you?
35 Post contains links Jacobin777 : I still don't think they will do it, EK's Clark has mentioned before that the b787-10 would be a better plane than the A350, and after a few years of
36 Phxfly : The Seattle Times ran an 8 part series on the 737 rudder problems sometime after the US 427 crash. The series rather critical of Boeing and openly qu
37 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Aboulafia wasn't 'writing' anything - he was asked for a comment by a journalist. Anyone who has been in consultancy will know that 'being quoted' is
38 Anxebla : UX will be that important in a medium-term like IB is nowadays. They are doing thing pretty well, unlike the ultra-conservative IB
39 YYZ4RADD : I have never seen this idiot say anything positive...he should stop offering his opinion and shut up. I really want to email him personally to take a
40 Post contains links and images Jetjack74 : Maybe i'm missing something here, but this is Primaris, is it not? http://www.primarisairlines.com/index.aspx View Large View MediumPhoto © Jet
41 Post contains links and images DfwRevolution : Primaris isn't a Boeing order unless you consult.... Wikipedia There's one reason: Timing. Airbus was not in a position, nor could they have, been pr
42 Rktsci : Bingo! All orders are NOT created equal. While it would be too complicated in practice, I would say that you could multiple each order by a "fluff fa
43 Post contains images DfwRevolution : Well... so says the extremly politically correct statement they gave. Some sources outside the press and closer to the decision say the margin of vic
44 Mariner : Okay, so he's right, all the orders are fluff. And Southwest's passengers are all trailer trash. And Tiffany's is better than Walmart. But - as my Jew
45 Antiuser : ... which is only the market leader in one of Latin America's busiest and wealthiest markets, has a solid Airbus fleet, receives great praise for its
46 MidnightMike : " target=_blank>http://www.primarisairlines.com/inde....aspx Primaris exist only as a chart on-demand airline, the plans for scheduled service have no
47 Shenzhen : Removing 2005 from the equation (which was a wierd year for orders), and generally speaking, the top 20 airlines order over 80 percent of the new air
48 PlanesNTrains : One man's positive is another man's negative, I guess. It all depends on who's on the wrong side of the "fluff" comment. -Dave
49 N79969 : Sure money is money. But his point is a little larger than that. The (clear) implication of his remarks is that by picking up a slew of orders from t
50 AC787 : He's not saying airlines like TAM are weak and bad airlines. Its just the fact that there network and thus there fleet is fairly small when compared
51 Mariner : How can I possibly respond? Every time I respond to you, you end up ripping me a new one. I would simply point out that I did not disagree with Mr. A
52 Anxebla : I agree with you, but taking into account A-350 is the newest airliner and still even it doesn't exist the number of orders for the Airbus' newest pr
53 Abba : I have read Aboulafia writing about the aviation market as if the entire world is just like the USA! Timing is very important. But not the only one.
54 N79969 : If pointing inconsistencies in your arguments counts as "ripping you a new one" or is a "personal attack" as you call it, I do not know what to say e
55 Mariner : I did not say there was any flaw in his argument. That was exactly my point. mariner
56 N79969 : Not an attack but a genuine question: You say you disagree with a "flawless" argument?
57 Mariner : I don't understand. I do not disagree with with Mr. Aboulafia's statement about "fluff". I might have used a different word, and I might suggest - on
58 N79969 : Mariner, Ok I understand your point now. I just was not clear about the nature of whatever disagreement you did have.
59 11Bravo : Maybe he thought your comment was facetious. Assuming that isn’t the case, I agree with you that the “fluff” remark was a bit harsh, but that A
60 N79969 : I guess we all have different ways of expressing ourselves... Anyway I would be curious to know if there is a professional market analyst or financia
61 PlaneDane : If you knew the often strained relationship Boeing has had with the media local to Seattle over the years, you would never have made such a ridiculou
62 Singaporegirl : is that like saying it's ok for the crew to treat an economy pax like crap, because they sit on the economy cabin? i mean let's face it for an airline
63 Mariner : I'm sorry, I cannot imagine what I said that could be construed as facetious. I may have expressed myself with some humor - or at least, light hearte
64 N754PR : Anti Airbus topic posted by an American once again and not deleted...... yay for freedom.
65 PlaneDane : When large carriers commit to a particular model and brand of aircraft, a smart smaller carrier will wisely follow suit. The reason is that those sma
66 GBan : We do this in our (totally different) business as well. But only to estimate future revenues we have not booked yet. When a customer has signed a con
67 BoomBoom : What about this?
68 Vfw614 : What a joke. I had a look at my JP and stopped counting TAM's aircraft when I had reached 70+ and no end was in sight (Air Europa has 40+ aircraft). O
69 Manni : The sour responses of the so called 'neutral' industry experts, the doubt over Airbus 2006 results, the many posts that have been deleted in the last
70 Columba : I want you to keep in mind that the start of the 787 was not that great either. First of all the Launch Customers were airlines like First Choice and
71 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Well, you are "free" to post an opposing viewpoint. Are you saying that there is an Aboulafia equivalent on Airbus' side who you've posted on and had
72 BigB : Yeah, you called a lot of my military buds and I trailer trash with that statement, you think ya might want to take that back?
73 Nudelhirsch : It'll all be down to deliveries. Down the road we will see whether A or B deliver more metal... That is where the money comes in. Then we will se whet
74 Mariner : That is the common stereotype of Southwest's passengers, used frequently on this board. It was ironic, not facetious. mariner
75 BigB : Or in B's case, composites Its just a matter time for QF to ink its deal for the 787s. A340/777 orders are still up for grabs.
76 Mariner : See reply #74. mariner
77 BigB : My bad, didn't see #74 earlier. But I"m gonna drop that issue because thats a whole different thread.
78 ScottB : There are no 787 orders booked for Primaris -- just as there are no A350 orders booked for Qatar just yet. No, the initial launch customer for the 78
79 Mariner : He says facetious, you say sarcastic, my, what a varied day. And what a suspicious group. I'll make it very clear, once again. I do not disagree with
80 Art : While Singapore or Emirates orders would be highly desirable, I question the "need" expressed, bearing in mind that fluffy customers have placed orde
81 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : What are you saying? I don't get your point. Okay, just kidding. you've been more than clear - no need to explain yourself again. You'd think you wer
82 PlaneDane : Nobody here is sad, Manni. After all, Boeing grabbed the mindshare of the media, airlines and the traveling public last year with its vision and cutt
83 Post contains images Singaporegirl : clearly you haven't been on any of my flights... i've been flying for 10 years now and i def know the difference between the diff classes. all im say
84 CV990 : Hi! I still don't get the point on this topic, what are we trying to discuss here? It's again the same issue that Boeing have big clients in his 787 b
85 Post contains links Scbriml : I think this is wrong. Boeing's order from China was for 70 737s. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/20/content_496293.htm By some acco
86 GARPD : I think what Aboulafia was getting at is, although Airbus have "sold" $15bil of A350s.... how many will actually get delivered? Its a fair comment to
87 Anxebla : Absolutely ...every plane which is ordered is a satisfaction for an aircraft manufacturer. That is why I think Aboulafia is a bit idiot. Of course an
88 Trex8 : dunno about anyone at Airbus but the previous Boeing CFO is in a Federal jail already for that one!!
89 PlanesNTrains : Let me throw a little honesty out there. I was happy that Boeing was looking to be tops for the year. I live in Seattle (lifelong) and it is hard to
90 Abba : Read what I write and not what you THINK that I write based on your very own speculative interpretations of what you for whatever reason have made yo
91 GARPD : I think this is a true case of the Pot calling the kettle black.[Edited 2006-01-19 10:19:38]
92 Post contains images ZKEOJ : and yet, you mention EI....... Sorry, I couldn't resist
93 Manni : Fair enough, unfortunately not everyone takes it as you seem to do. I think I summed it up very well in my post, but let me quote myself... Not all i
94 BestWestern : No - completely biased comments like we see today damage his firm - in a business like his, you have to be seen as neutral. Would you buy a report fr
95 PlanesNTrains : This is what I read: Right or wrong, my interpretation of your comments was that a) the offers from Airbus and Boeing were very close; and b) QF were
96 Post contains images Astuteman : Correct! Both of these posts pick up the point that hard-contested blue-chip orders will be secured on the slimmest of margins. (QF a prime example)
97 Jacobin777 : Once again, while Boeing does have a few carriers which aren't "top-tiered".....they have mostly carriers who will be around for many years, who need
98 Post contains links Keesje : Aboulafia just last week said he thinks it is very well possible Boeing could outdo Airbus 2:1 at the end of this decade. That is highly unlikely IMO
99 NAV20 : BestWestern, I'd hire him (or any other consultant) to form an honest opinion, based on the facts, and give me a recommendation. If I was in the airl
100 BestWestern : Problem is that he has a perception of being pro airbus... If I was an airline, I'd toss boeings analysis by Teal into the bin. Problem is, That I wo
101 Jacobin777 : but then there are the maintenance contracts, etc..future orders (which might be more expensive).. and though it might have been supposedly a "close
102 GARPD : Is it me, or is there a growing shift to discredit anything that is evel slightly critical of Airbus on these fora lately? It seems to be that as soon
103 Glideslope : They chose not to due to the fundamental difference in they way the two companies operate. A very clear separation of corporate behavior.
104 Kangar : It's good to see that Emirates is now regarded as a Blue Chip airline. There was a time not so long ago when their order for 43 A380s was regarded as
105 Scbriml : Can you please clarify what you mean by this? Thanks!
106 EI321 : I have a few questions regarding the A350 and 787 from which I want to do an analisis. Hopefully somebody can help: 1. What EXACT dates were the 787 &
107 Leelaw : I'd add the Seattle PI, Seattle Times, Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, and at times even Reuters to that list of perceived transgressors.
108 Post contains images Joni : I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's mostly just you. Of course, everythiing even slightly critical of Boeing has been routinely discredited here for
109 Post contains links BestWestern : I for one have ceased my subscription to FI, not because they are anti or pro anything, but I dont credit their level of analysis as worth paying for.
110 EI321 : A few posters (ive seen 3 so far) including myself simply stated in a recent thread that FI have slipped in thier standard of reporting recently, it
111 Dynkrisolo : This kind of information can be readily found in their respective press releases which are available online. I don't have the time to search, but IIR
112 Abba : Most likely. But as they didn't buy Airbus they didn't get them cheap (even if the most likely could have)! Sure - and I have never said otherwise! M
113 Post contains links and images Keesje : I only critized FI once, for their Airbus Infuriates Boeing Composites article. Completely rightfully. Apparently one of their journalists forgot to
114 Amy : In my opinion Airbus should stop chasing the A350 market so intensely and work on something else that Boeing doesnt offer. There is a market gap in th
115 N79969 : What? Look...I think you are missing the point. In 2005, Boeing and Airbus got the China Aviation Supply Corporation (or something to that effect) to
116 Vfw614 : Funny. In the end it all comes down on how many planes you sell with what profit margin for each single plane. So wouldn't those airlines ordering ju
117 N79969 : Keesje, That is clearly not a correction. Do not lie or misrepresent information. They are simply carrying Airbus response. Apparently they had the s
118 Post contains links Leelaw : I'm glad to hear you don't think FI is part of the "vast anti-Airbus media conspiracy," I misinterpreted your earlier remarks because they contained
119 BestWestern : FI got the A350 x 200 order wrong also (much to my original amusement). Another case of forgetting to check and clarify the facts (hearing what he wan
120 Sabenapilot : I am not going to get involved in yet another pointless discussion on the latest hallucination of Richard Aboulafia (Yep, one just can't call his view
121 UALMMFlyer : I am a little confused.... Primaris is not even included in the Boeing's order book, so why we keep pointing to Primaris? On that same subject, accord
122 Post contains images Leelaw : Won't be included until 2006....Boeing should ask Airbus where they get their electric pens.
123 N79969 : Whatever. Get over yourself. I repeat this and actually challenge someone to find published remarks by an analyst affiliated with an consultancy or f
124 Mham001 : Oh absolutley. As I've been told in other threads, Airbus does not have to abide by financial disclosure laws because they are a subsidiary. Which is
125 BestWestern : Some examples of where Merril Lynch have said the A350 orders are fluff please?
126 N328KF : No, the order isn't confirmed (and the Wikipedia article mentions that), but BCA still includes it in their LOI count.
127 GARPD : Why not? Its been done before (not by Airbus). Not that I'm saying they have/do/will. Its not unthinkable and certainly not impossible. Its been know
128 N79969 : I think we both know that ML did not call anything "fluff." But let me clarify, Merrill Lynch seems to take the view that Boeing has correctly gauged
129 PlaneDane : I can attempt to clarify for you, Scbriml. As a publicly traded corporation, Boeing must answer to its shareholders on the soundness of its business
130 Glareskin : So what makes you think that QF has a better growing strategy than JJ ? TAM has proven some points and is one of the best and most respected airlines
131 Post contains links UALMMFlyer : Here is another analysis on the subject: http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2006/mf...e=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y[Edited 2006-01-19 17:24:41]
132 Scbriml : I don't believe this is right, even if they were a wholly owned subsidiary (which of course they're not). See below as well. Even though Airbus is no
133 Post contains links BestWestern : This 'analysis' comes from someone with a yahoo email address. Its full of if seems maybes Why not look at what the investment banks are stating: Wha
134 BestWestern : Of course they can make things up... sure, arent european companies corrupt, especially french ones.
135 PlaneDane : Must you so often react with sarcasm? Besides, we all know that Airbus is based in the Netherlands, not France.
136 N79969 : First of all, exaggerating sales predictions is far different from "falsifying business records." Anyway, the EADS co-CEO is creating confusion in th
137 Post contains images BoomBoom : Please NAV, this is a family thread.
138 Schipholjfk : And I suppose you are a genius? Give me a break! We all the right to disagree with any views, but calling someone an idiot who is part of the aviatio
139 Aerlinguscargo : Aer Lingus is not necessarily an in the bag for the 350. Although past management has went the way of the European Consortium, the new management tea
140 A319XFW : That's EADS N.V. which is registered on the Amsterdam stock exchange. Airbus S.A.S. is some kind of French special business form that wouldn't exist
141 BestWestern : The 787 is perfect for EI, but they will probably go Airbus, due fleet commonality and the ability to offer an immediate fleet growth aircraft withou
142 Post contains links Leelaw : Airbus S.A.S. was incorporated in 2001 under French law as a simplified joint stock company or "S.A.S." (Société par Actions Simplifiée - Society
143 PlaneDane : You're absolutely right, A319XFW. My apologies. It can be a bit confusing at times.
144 Aither : For those keen to bury Airbus products i've just come from an interesting meeting with our group of people evaluating aircraft. They were really impre
145 N79969 : You almost sound reasonable for a while but then fell apart. How are the sales figures "meaningless"? The B777 sold 154 airplanes in 2005 while the A
146 Scbriml : But that's the whole point! They're not "exaggerating sales predictions" they're reporting actual business completed. This is completely different an
147 GARPD : Convenient that the meeting praises the very product you like and have shown blind support in and dicredits the one you have openly been negative abo
148 11Bravo : Judging from the 10 to 1 sales ratio in favor of the B773ER last year I think it’s fairly obvious that airlines don’t share your view. Several of
149 BoomBoom : Just who is this group comprised of?
150 Aither : "Meaningless" figures as they say nothing about the present aircraft interest. Many products in many industries did not sell well for a while and late
151 Post contains images Leelaw : We'll look for you among the other pilgrims at Lourdes. P.S. A one billion dollar offering might be helpful as well.
152 Aither : And yes, i'm pro Airbus, not because it is European, but because they are the challenger, were more creative, more dynamic, than Boeing which for me w
153 N79969 : The bottom line, the line that matters, is that the A340-600 is not a competitive product as it exists. I am not sure what anyone is missing about th
154 Aither : Many factors could explain this. First they probably had some bad experiences with the A340... in the past, and maybe were not to keen to deal with A
155 GARPD : You should learn not to listen to the PR drivvel Airbus ooze. Especially when it concerns Boeing. Same goes for Boeing PR. Fact is you or no one at y
156 Post contains links DL021 : ok...go here to see for yourself whether the man is an idiot or whether you simply disagree with him because you are more qualified than he is to sta
157 N79969 : Because Airbus said so it is true? Boeing chopped the number of suppliers to cut costs this year and they are passing on the savings. The 777 lost or
158 Aither : "The company CEO also said that Airbus is happy with a market share of 40-60% each year, as market share is not as important as profit percentage and
159 Milan320 : So does Aboulafia think that the so-called Blue Chip airlines like AC, QF, etc. will carry the 787 whilst smaller orders from airlines like LOT, Prime
160 Shenzhen : This is done every day... Bring forward sales to make one quarter look better then another..... Companies can skew numbers over several quarters and
161 Shenzhen : You seem to have this completely backwards. First off, if a manufacturer is able to place their product with most if not all the blue chip airlines,
162 Post contains images Jacobin777 : err...Glaeskin, I can't really disagree with you (because we don't know), but QF would still be considered a "Blue Chip" company over JJ...and I woul
163 Aerokiwi : Manni: I think your entire post (69) sums up why there is such hostitlity towards such ardent Airbus supporters as yourself on this site. The ommissio
164 474218 : According to their web sites TAM has a fleet of 53 aircraft in their fleet and Air Europa has 34. Do I believe you and your JP or the airline?
165 PlanesNTrains : I believe that it was you that called him an idiot based, I thought, on his comments regarding the A350. I interpreted that as meaning you disagree.
166 NAV20 : It does seem that current criticism of Aboulafia centres not on what he said - which pretty well anyone would agree with in this case - but on the way
167 N79969 : Like I said...made up out of thin air. ANA and JAL came down the same way as Korean, NWA, Air Canada, Qantas, and others. Yet the Europeans and their
168 Abba : Not? Well then his choice of words is absolutely inappropriate which only serves to strongly undermine his credibility! Even your so much beloved Lea
169 N79969 : You should read replies more carefully. Aboulafia does not work for an Airbus competitor. He works for the Teal Group. On the other hand, Leahy speak
170 Glacote : What performances issues is he/are you referring to? I thought the only problem with the A380 was the 6 months delay - never heard anything about per
171 GARPD : This proves nothing. Where is the quote from Boeing stating clearly that "the long range market must be a Boeing market"?
172 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ....the comment was regarding part of Boeing's 100 Chinese orders..I don't know how Leahy got into the mix here.... the "misses" of targets and deliv
173 Abba : With your so very high moral stance on Leahy and his lack of credibility I just wonder why Aboulafia is not more of an issue? In order words - if you
174 Joni : Well, being quoted by newspapers doesn't mean you're credible, or even that the newspapers consider you to be credible. Newspapers quote material tha
175 Post contains images Astuteman : The OEM gets the benefit of the spares business whichever way it happens (unless of course, you're suggesting that small airlines put Boeing spares o
176 Post contains images Shenzhen : What you basically said was that Airbus could expect 15 percent margins by selling (1500) A350 Airplanes to smaller airlines vs Boeng getting 7.5 per
177 Vfw614 : I would suggest you believe the JP as it is a recognised and reliable industry source. I have seen websites of airlines that have not been updated fo
178 Shenzhen : So both Tam and Air Europa have 10 widebody each???
179 Vfw614 : The Air Europa A330-200 have not been delivered yet. Air Europa has operated a small fleet of Boeing 767-300 for a couple of years (they also had some
180 N79969 : Get over yourself. It is pretty simple, Aboulafia and Leahy occupy different roles and different standards apply to their conduct. An analyst is paid
181 BoomBoom : I have been searching for this quote in the WSJ but can't find it. Can you provide a link?
182 LipeGIG : In fact only 3, they have received one back last year. And another one will be returned till april in order that Tam could increase their GRU-JFK to
183 Post contains links Glacote : From Seatle PI: Some more fuel on the discussion I imagine... There are facts, figures, arguments - and there is the way to spin wild claim based on d
184 MarshalN : Wait, wait, let me get this right -- you are saying that small airlines base their fleet strategy decisions on larger "blue chip" airlines' decision?
185 PlaneDane : Yes, MarshalN, small airlines wisely follow the choices made by the larger blue chip airlines in their purchasing decisions in order to lower costs.
186 N79969 : The ability to avoid paying R&D repayable loans boost margins in my view... In any case, I have to say that your posts are invariably articulate and
187 Astuteman : There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that Airbus have avoided ANY government loan repayments. In fact to the contrary, the royalties being paid
188 Abba : A salesman can be expected to be subjective. If he/she ever pretends to be objective it is usually only a cover for some subjective view. I respect L
189 BoomBoom : Although Airbus says it is making good on these loans, it is difficult, if not impossible, to confirm because of the many parties and accounting syst
190 Post contains links RichardPrice : To quote a speaker in the British House of Commons: Source Some more figures that you can peruse at your leasure: Trade and Industry Written Evidence
191 Egmcman : With several countries you will never get your answer unless an Airbus employee with access to such information divulges it which could be against th
192 Post contains links RichardPrice : Oh, and these figures detail interest rates: Source: Select Committee on Trade and Industry - Fifteenth Report
193 BoomBoom : Thanks, but you didn't answer any of the questions: How much "launch aid" did Airbus get for the A320? What was the interest rate? When did the intere
194 BoomBoom : Your source is for "The 1992 EC/US Agreement on Trade in Large Civil Aircraft." The A320 program was launched in March 1982 so I assume this agreemen
195 RichardPrice : Sorry, below figures probably dont apply to the A320 program, but I have left them in for future referral. [quote=BoomBoom,reply=196] How much "launch
196 RichardPrice : Ahh you do have a fair point, however with figures being given for the A320 repayments in parliament, I fail to see what your problem is.
197 BoomBoom : But they only apply after 1992? If so, then the A300, 320, 330 and 340 were not subject to these terms. Correct?
198 RichardPrice : Yes, but since the British government has stated in minuted meetings that it has received, in the case of the A320, 1. the loan amount back, 2. a tot
199 BoomBoom : That is not evidence of anything. There are all kinds of ways to "cook the books" and make it appear that Airbus has paid back the "launch aid". For
200 RichardPrice : Boeing better be prepared to be laid bare as well then, they arent exactly pure white themselves.
201 MarshalN : I understand that, but at the same time, it would mean that everyone who's ordered the A350 is out of their mind because, as you say, they should've
202 AvObserver : "The sour responses of the so called 'neutral' industry experts, the doubt over Airbus 2006 results, the many posts that have been deleted in the las
203 Mariner : Just a guess - but I would hazard that some very clever people at Airbus are examining their product line on a day to day basis. Indeed, I think Airb
204 N79969 : I concede the A320 program is a big, all-around success. But the rest of the programs are a black box. It is not whether they actually deliver econom
205 Glacote : Agreed on the A345 mis-performance. Agreed on the A388 delay (and lack of communication about it). However your phrasing is dangerously spinning. I f
206 Post contains links NAV20 : People keep saying things like that, Glacote; but I can't find any evidence of it. EADS net profit in 2004 was E1,030M., which represented 3.25% on t
207 NAV20 : RichardPrice, I know that it's the British DTI that is boasting about this, not you; but at compound market rates, ANY loan where little or no princi
208 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I've never said the A388 was missing its performance targets.... and by the way, there was no spinning on my part..
209 Post contains images Glacote : . Unsure. My take is different: 1) Yes, there definetely is an effect on the rate you get from private bankers once several major European government
210 BoomBoom : That's the best argument I've ever heard for why the WTO should declare all future "launch aid" illegal.
211 NAV20 : Apart from anything else, I think 'launch aid' is inadvisable in business terms:- 1. It makes it easier to start projects than to stop them. Imagine i
212 Art : I too would like to know these things - with data supporting hard results. In the matter of the A320 launch aid package, it is clear from UK parliame
213 Ikramerica : As a citizen who has been asked to contribute to this loans, one would expect you have the right to know how they are structured, no? That's a major
214 Post contains images RichardPrice : You can go and hunt down the exact figures, they exist. If noone has asked this particular question in Parliament and thus received an answer, your b
215 Post contains images Kaitak : Dear Mr. Aboulaifa, My national airline is just about to order A330s and I am worried that they might be fluffy. Can you please tell me how I can diag
216 BestWestern : That is the boeing arrogance of old. I do hope that they really have learnt from the past, and that they know that every order counts. In the late 90
217 Abba : Neither! What counts here is neither the number of planes sold (Airbus) nor the value of the planes sold (Boeing) but the margins made on invested ca
218 Sebolino : I really don't get it. A and B are on the same markets, or did I miss something ? Airbus has loans (not for the A350 as it seems they didn't want to
219 Kangar : We've come a long way in a few years, We now have a Boeing advocate saying that Airbus did at one time in it's history repay a little launch aid. ; )
220 RichardPrice : I still dont understand where the 'conditionally repayable loans' rubbish is coming from? The loans are repayable by Airbus within 17 years, there is
221 A319XFW : I think what irks me about the "fluff" bit is the disrespect it shows for all the people working at such 'fluff' airlines. He does have a point regard
222 Astuteman : Why is it that when the obvious statement that Airbus is (currently, but maybe not necessarily in future) more profitable than Boeing Commercial Airc
223 Trex8 : any chance these were the same ones who thought Boeing getting all those orders in the mid 90s was great just before they managed to do the most botc
224 N79969 : That you do not like the conclusions do not make them wrong or 'undiluted nonsense.' You and many others have no substantive rebuttal of what he says
225 BoomBoom : They did? So tell us the answers to these questions based on what you read above. And please don't quote the 1992 Agreement since the A320 project st
226 Post contains links RichardPrice : Im not wasting my time to find some worthless figures that only you care about. The figures are out there, Ive told you where they are likely to be a
227 Cruiser : With all due respect, I do not see how it is 'obvious' that Airbus is more profitable than Boeing CA. Could you please point me to this information?
228 Kangar : N79969, I think in your eyes, you are mistaking quality of order for prestige, and it could be argued that Airbus' orders do not have the prestige th
229 Post contains links and images BestWestern : Lets put this profitability question to bed for once and for all. I've pulled the financial stats for Airbus SAS - last data I have is to year end 200
230 Post contains links BestWestern : Actually, I'll do this myself. I can compare these to the Boeing Commercial results for 2003 (ensuring like for like comparison) available here. http:
231 BestWestern : Can someone please ensure I have pulled the data for proper companies (airbus), and that I am comparing like for like...
232 N79969 : I am able to distinguish between quality and prestige. And I would not assume that Airbus is commanding top dollar from Aer Lingus, Alafco, TAM, or T
233 Kangar : Given that the airlines are a customer and Airbus is a supplier, you're probably right that the supplier needs a customer more than the other way rou
234 Cruiser : Even if Airbus did command top dollar from the smaller airlines, then it doesn't mean that they will be produced for the same price as the larger ord
235 N79969 : I agree with the general idea. No of course not. But I think Boeing secured significant long term revenue streams in Qantas, Air Canada, Korean Air,
236 Kangar : I would agree that a large order from someone like LH or EK would certainly boost the A350's profile, no argument there. I personally think SQ is a d
237 BestWestern : In most cases, I would agree - one case against this premis is the Ryanair 2001/2 737-800 order.
238 Glacote : This only apply in the end 90s when both A and B evaluate their entering the super-jumbo market (and Boeing possibly having faked cooperating with A
239 PlaneDane : I've heard this allegation before, Glacote. It, however, does not seem plausible to me. Would not Boeing have its own VLA available by now, if the co
240 Astuteman : I didn't intend any form of correction, Glacote. The words "at present" are the significant ones in the sentence. Whether this changes due to a major
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