VH-BZF From Australia, joined Oct 1999, 781 posts, RR: 0 Posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1947 times:
I know, I know! Before you go off, just read what I have written, then express your view, okay!
I myself think this is bunkum, but anyway, a report today in todays Australian Newspaper (a Murdoch-News ltd publication), stated that the H O T rumour flying around European media & financial circles is....that when/if BA & KLM merge, then BA may opt out of QF, paving the way for another carrier to take its spot! The rumours have Lufthansa as leading the pack, likely to pay around $4billion for the Aussie flag carrier - the Big white rat!
Now to be fair the article also points out that foreign institutions/airlines are limited to approx. 39% ownership with the raminder in local hands. Also QF is firmly (currently) in the Oneworld camp where as LH is firmly in the STAR camp.
My thoughts on the matter are.......there has been a lot of media speculation recently about BA possibly wanting out of QF, because IT (BA) has been performing so badly at home and also so it can merge with KLM? Now any Europen approval on the so-called marriage between BA & KL would apparently require an open skies agreement between the US & UK to be in place? BA are doing quite nicely from QF and its profits & they share a fairly close relationship from code & aircraft sharing to BA having representation on QF's board.
I feel QF are angry that they didn't get a better shot at NZ, prior to SQ getting in there! QF are more and more isolated down under, with the AN/NZ/SQ tie up, also TG is lined up with that group through STAR. MH is still deciding which way it will go (probably Oneworld, although the new DL/AF alliance could be a contender?). QF needs a close partner (geographically speaking), it codeshares with JL and only CX is a fellow partner in Oneworld in this part of the world, but they seem fairly independant and don't strongly advertise their links with QF.
So will BA sell down or out? Time will tell, but maybe the writing is on the wall - BA want dominance in Europe and across the Atlantic - and their move out of parts of Asia and all cities in Australia (ex Sydney), indicate that! I think QF would want a relatively strong regional partner or even someone like AA perhaps, although they are busy trying to finad a partner in Nth America to combat UA-US. Maybe QF will go it alone, but history shows that strong alliances are vitally important!
what do you think?
Cheers - BZF
Ansett Australia - (was) One of the worlds great airlines!
Trvlr From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 24 Reply 2, posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1797 times:
first of all, why in the hell would BA want out of a QF alliance and not someone else for buying KLM? I don't quite see any relationship between Qantas and the merger here.
I honestly think that Thai has a good chance of being bought out by the SKYTEAM airlines and that Malaysia will go to Oneworld. And even if Qantas leaves the BA alliance, then it would not be bought out by LH because then it would join Star and the entire Australia/NZ market (except for some of the smaller carriers) would be controlled by one group of airlines. I don't think that would fly with anyone anywhere.
Trvlr From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 24 Reply 5, posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 1724 times:
All of the major three alliances are interested in placing a bid for Thai when it is (10%?) privatised, and I think the money will come from the airlines you said, VH-BZF, plus for SKYTEAM from AF mostly, I think.
XQF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 6, posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 1691 times:
Hold your horses!!! I would be amazed, shocked, devastated if BA sells its 25% share in QF. For a start it would cost BA a fortune to split with Qantas. For instance BA here in Australia has a very small team of BA staff, every function outside sales/marketing etc are done by Qantas. Also around the world in SIN, BKK, HKG, MNL, TPE, LAX etc BA/QF operate cost effective joint operations including management/sales teams and airport lounges etc. Also BA's investment in Qantas has paid off very handsomely, with Qantas currently a more profitable entity than it's shareholder. BA is not stupid and can see the long term benefits of its partnership with Qantas........so dont hold your breath on a QF/BA split.
Al From Australia, joined Jun 1999, 593 posts, RR: 2 Reply 8, posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1638 times:
You raised some interesting points regarding ownership laws of Australian carriers. Currently, the law stands as:
Domestic Carriers - can be up to 100% foreign owned, even by other carriers.
International Carriers - can not be more than 49% foreign owned with only 25% of that 49% allowed to be held by a foreign carrier. I am under the impression that some form of exemption was made for NZ with AN International even though they were still not permitted to own more than 49% of them.
QF also has recently been lobbying the government to allow QF to increase either the foreign owned limitation or the foreign carrier owned limitation. Unlike AN that technically has two divisions, QF is one whole airline and as such is regarded as an International carrier and is limited under that category in ownership matters.
I can't really see BA throwing away an investment in QF, nor LH going for QF given their very close ties to SQ. Still - it's the aviation biz. Weirder things have happened!
AFa340-300E From France, joined May 1999, 2084 posts, RR: 28 Reply 9, posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1610 times:
AFAIK this was only reported in the Australian media.
I'm quite sceptical about that. BA and QF have been building a strong cooperation, and were apparently ready to secure even more the important Kangaroo Routes with an alliance in SE Asia.
London is a very important market for QF and I assume it would have hard times if BA would leave them, and same goes for BA in Australia where they now much rely on QF's operations and staffs.
At first sight, I assume both partners wouldn't be that willing to leave one another.
Lufthansa taking over Qantas would be a probability (if the BA's stake is to be sold), as Singapore Airlines, a Star Alliance partner, would take benefit from that and eventually get the "home market" he has been dreaming of for a long time.
But would Air France, American, Delta, Continental, Northwest, ... Lufthansa take Qantas so easily?
All these carriers are more or less likely to have Australian operations anytime soon.
VH-BZF From Australia, joined Oct 1999, 781 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1574 times:
Air France, American, Continental & NorthWest have all operated services to Australia in their own right over the past decade or so & all have pulled their aircraft & services from Australia & at this stage have no plans to return. The US market is well served by UA/NZ & QF, with services to France/Europe also well covered with many other Asian & Europen carriers.
My personal view is that QF will remain a firm partner of BA for many years to come & that will not change in the short term. And as stated above foreign ownership laws governing QF, also don't allow more than 25% by a foreign carrier - and they sure as heck would not value a 25% share at $4b! In fact I think QF would just be worth that much total!
Anyway, thanks for your contribution to this discussion, & I guess time will tell?
Cheers - BZF
Ansett Australia - (was) One of the worlds great airlines!
AFa340-300E From France, joined May 1999, 2084 posts, RR: 28 Reply 12, posted (12 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1553 times:
"at this stage have no plans to return"
VH-BZF, did you get the confirmation these airlines are not considering Australia for sure, from "reliable" sources?
"The [...] market is well served"
So is the North Atlantic. And new flights are added each year, with new carriers from time to time.
Just that the "other airlines" don't wanna give up the market to their competitors, as long as they think they can enter it profitably.