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787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?  
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3342 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 3534 times:

Bit of idle speculation here: the 787 has near as dammit 300 orders at the moment. Any guesses as to how many there will be by the time of its maiden flight? 400-500? 500-600? 600+?

And one more thing: how much will they be worth in total?

As an aside, anyone know the highest number of frames ever ordered for a 100+ seat civil airliner before its first flight?

[Edited 2006-01-25 13:00:51]

9 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinePavlin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 3530 times:

It sure will be a record. But surely more than 600

User currently offlinePavlin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3530 times:

It can also reach exactly 787!

User currently offlineShenzhen From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 1706 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3509 times:

First flight is just over a year and a half away... so one would think that it would probably be less then 500.

User currently offlineTifoso From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 440 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3477 times:

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 3):

I agree. Boeing right now has 379 orders + commitments. If one were to discount Primaris (20) and Garuda Indonesia (10), then it is down to 349.

I doubt Boeing will be able to get more than 150 orders in the next year and a half. Somewhere between 450 and 500 is a reasonable number IMO.

[Edited 2006-01-25 13:10:48]

User currently offlineMatt72033 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1617 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3431 times:

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 4):
I agree. Boeing right now has 379 orders + commitments. If one were to discount Primaris (20) and Garuda Indonesia (10), then it is down to 349.

why would you discount them?


User currently offlineTifoso From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 440 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3296 times:

Quoting Matt72033 (Reply 5):
why would you discount them?

Primarius seems to be going nowhere. Also, Garuda placed their "order" on September 16th, and have yet to decide on a model, or make their orders firm.

Go here for more information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3281 times:

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 4):
I doubt Boeing will be able to get more than 150 orders in the next year and a half. Somewhere between 450 and 500 is a reasonable number IMO.

If Boeing launches the 787-10, they are very likely to win the EK order.

And there are several large RFPs due this year, like SQ and CX.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21416 posts, RR: 60
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3172 times:

In recent history, Garuda has paced orders that don't ever get filled at Boeing:

1999 18 73G, no deliveries
1996 6 772ER, no deliveries

I'll believe the 10 Garuda when number 1 is delivered.

But between EK, BA, SQ and AA, there should be some more 787 firm orders, and QF should firm up 45+20 by first flight as well. Not sure if it'll be 500 firm, but who can really know?



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offline767-332ER From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2030 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3061 times:

DL emerging from BK next year will also be an indicator for a good dozen to 20 order. Fuel prices and other factors will tell and DL is interested and knows the great potential this aircraft will have in the fleet as a future 767 replacement.


Twinjets...if one fails, work the other one twice as hard!!!
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