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How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?  
User currently offlineNwab787techops From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 219 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 7158 times:

I was on a CO flight from EWR-TPA this weekend and there was only 60 or 70 on the B737-800. And I'v see CO has put more flights on jetblue routs. How long do you think jetblue can fight, till they get the boot form EWR?

47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJeff G From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 431 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 7133 times:

Well if it was a CO aircraft with only 70 to 80 on board, what makes you think it's JetBlue who should cut capacity on those routes?

User currently offlineAlitalia744 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 4731 posts, RR: 45
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 7118 times:

Quoting Jeff G (Reply 1):
Well if it was a CO aircraft with only 70 to 80 on board, what makes you think it's JetBlue who should cut capacity on those routes?

Exactly. I'm no fan of jetBlue, but CO has to watch it.

CO has more issues coming and obviously their CEO already has placed blame:

""We continue to face significant challenges," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner. "The price of oil still hovers at record high prices, JetBlue has invaded our Newark hub, Delta is using its bankruptcy advantage to expand into our profitable international markets and United Airlines, flush with $3 billion in exit financing and greatly reduced costs, is coming out of bankruptcy."

Looks like CO's stuck between a rock and a hard place Wink



Some see lines, others see between the lines.
User currently offlineNwab787techops From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 219 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 7095 times:

Quoting Jeff G (Reply 1):
Well if it was a CO aircraft with only 70 to 80 on board, what makes you think it's JetBlue who should cut capacity on those routes?

CO has a hub in EWR if you didn't know. CO has PAX coming form NRT or LGW to lets say FL, that help pay for what they loose with pont to pont PAX.


User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4199 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 7011 times:

Quoting Nwab787techops (Reply 3):
with pont to pont PAX

Bridge to bridge passengers?



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5638 posts, RR: 11
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6919 times:

I don't think he was necessarily suggesting that it should be JetBlue that cuts capacity- reread his statement.

I think he was making the supposition that Continental has a stronger arm and more to lose, and also deeper pockets. (that last part may or may not be true, but JetBlue DID just post a loss, so now they're in line with everybody else in one sense).
Anyhoo, he points out that Conti has not rolled over and played dead to JetWho... they've decided to fight. The consequence of that for the consumer is a glut of market capacity, low fares, and more flight choices. The consequence of that to the airlines is lower yields and bigger losses. Which is what Continental is placing their bets on- that they can out lose JetBlue. Or, at least, Jet Blue will give up first.

Will they? Time will tell. Continental has a LOT to lose at EWR, so I suspect they'll fight pretty long, hard, and dirty. It's a tough battle- B6 has leather and free TVs. Continental has first class, some perks, and meal service on transcons.

Continental battles Southwest in Houston, so THEORETICALLY, the B6 and CO could peacefully coexist in the New York.

I just don't understand why JetB wanted EWR- they've got Delta dead in the water at JFK, so what's the idea trying to strangle Newark???
I'm sure they've got it figured out somehow.

Hope this broadens the subject and adds detail to the discussion.
R


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21416 posts, RR: 60
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6909 times:

One flight with 60-70 does not a problem make. I've been on florida routes on CO that B6 also runs that are completely full. Depends on the flight and day.

But to answer the question, B6 and CO both posted losses for the quarter. B6's loss was larger, despite being a smaller airline.

if it is a war of attrition, EWR seems to be pulling ahead, even if B6 is doing well at EWR.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineARGinLON From Vatican City, joined Jun 2005, 614 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6872 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
don't think he was necessarily suggesting that it should be JetBlue that cuts capacity- reread his statement.

I think he was making the supposition that Continental has a stronger arm and more to lose, and also deeper pockets. (that last part may or may not be true, but JetBlue DID just post a loss, so now they're in line with everybody else in one sense).
Anyhoo, he points out that Conti has not rolled over and played dead to JetWho... they've decided to fight. The consequence of that for the consumer is a glut of market capacity, low fares, and more flight choices. The consequence of that to the airlines is lower yields and bigger losses. Which is what Continental is placing their bets on- that they can out lose JetBlue. Or, at least, Jet Blue will give up first.

Will they? Time will tell. Continental has a LOT to lose at EWR, so I suspect they'll fight pretty long, hard, and dirty. It's a tough battle- B6 has leather and free TVs. Continental has first class, some perks, and meal service on transcons.

Continental battles Southwest in Houston, so THEORETICALLY, the B6 and CO could peacefully coexist in the New York.

I just don't understand why JetB wanted EWR- they've got Delta dead in the water at JFK, so what's the idea trying to strangle Newark???
I'm sure they've got it figured out somehow.

Hope this broadens the subject and adds detail to the discussion.
R

You forgot to mention that CO has way more destinations ex EWR than B6 (including international)l that helps enormously to keep its onepass members onboard as long as the fares are competitive with B6

You will see CO going out of business before giving anything away at EWR to B6.


User currently offlineIAHFLYR From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 4790 posts, RR: 23
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6793 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
Continental battles Southwest in Houston

They don't compete out of the same airport.....SWA doesn't fly to IAH anymore.



Any views shared are strictly my own and do not a represent those of any former employer.
User currently offlineD950 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 493 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6705 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
just don't understand why JetB wanted EWR- they've got Delta dead in the water at JFK, so what's the idea trying to strangle Newark???
I'm sure they've got it figured out somehow.

They have adeptly left no (I can't get there) excuse not to fly them,with LGA covered also. Love or hate, the little minds are ticking.



Resting on your laurels is a synonym for flirting with disaster
User currently offlineTommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 6665 times:

JBlu is doing well at EWR. That is for certain. But seriously...how much bigger is CO at EWR than JB? If you ask me, CO has to watch it's ass on certain routes (florida) but they have such a loyal fan base in the NYC area that they have little to worry about on most other routes.

When people think EWR they think CO and not JB.

Tommy in EWR/LAX.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 6631 times:

Maybe they need different planes for time of day........an E195 with 60-70 pax probably would be more profitable (certainly lose less money).........

its not as if CO doesn't have a big fleet with Embraers anyway....

take a page out of the B6 playbook



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineJetBluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2937 posts, RR: 14
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 6625 times:

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
How long do you think jetblue can fight, till they get the boot form EWR?

Why do you think they'll get the boot from EWR? It's been doing very well since launch and I'd expect them to co-exist with CO with no problems.

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineCO767FA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 532 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 6594 times:

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 12):
Why do you think they'll get the boot from EWR? It's been doing very well since launch and I'd expect them to co-exist with CO with no problems.

So do you work for them? Do you see the daily loads in/out of EWR? How much more service will the carrier add? I believe they recently announced no additional service. CO will defend the territory and not be caught off guard like DL in ATL.


User currently offlineIcebird757 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 656 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 6589 times:

Quoting ARGinLON (Reply 7):
ou forgot to mention that CO has way more destinations ex EWR than B6 (including international)l that helps enormously to keep its onepass members onboard as long as the fares are competitive with B6

Obviously....that is Continentals home base and not ours.



LGB....where you can watch the grass grow because the traffic is so slow.
User currently offlineJetBluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2937 posts, RR: 14
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6449 times:

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 13):
So do you work for them? Do you see the daily loads in/out of EWR? How much more service will the carrier add? I believe they recently announced no additional service. CO will defend the territory and not be caught off guard like DL in ATL.

I don't work for them, but I am an investor and usually make very accurate guesses based on my observations of the company. Easy-to-obtain DOT data will tell you the loads, but those really don't tell me much about the actual success of the route. Here are some things I've observed about EWR flights:

1.) The yields are higher than JFK. Same sale fare, but because there is no connecting traffic (whereas JFK has Upstate), the average fare is higher. Right now, the lowest fare that you can find from BOS/JFK/EWR/LGA to any Florida city on B6 is $79. EWR was $10 cheaper then $10 more expensive than JFK for certain weekly sales back in October/November, but that really doesn't say much other than the fact that B6 tested different ways to increase its revenue.

2.) JetBlue originally thought EWR loads a little bit weaker than JFK, but has since stepped up its game. Last month, B6 raised it's lowest 3-day advanced purchase fare from $119, to $139, to $159, to $199 out of JFK to Florida. BOS had gone from $119, to $159, to $199. EWR-Florida hadn't budged, especially FLL which saw $119 fares for even 1-day advanced purchases at times. However, a few weeks ago EWR was included in the $199 fare raise. It's important to note, however, that this is only on 3-day advanced purchases. You can still get the $79 fare if the flight is relatively empty and you're booking more than 3 days out.

3.) EWR-SJU has extremely low yields on days such as Mon.-Wed. However, the flights are usually very full on weekends (both ways). The 1-day advanced purchase was as low as $59 for awhile (usually indicating empty flights on SJU-EWR, not as often on EWR-SJU, which more often saw fares in the $139 range), but have since been raised to $134 as an absolute minimum (on both segments). This new fare was put into place on Feb. 1, the day B6 announced its earnings and its need to increase its fares.

Do I see B6 adding more EWR service? I think next year Florida frequencies will be about the same - maybe another flight to PBI and TPA. Transcons? Perhaps, but I think B6 will be very cautious in this case. I could perhaps see them using the 3 LGB slots for EWR-LGB (which, IMO, isn't the absolute best use of their assets, but it could work). I bet we'll see another SJU freqeuncy sooner or later as B6 gains loyalty on the route. Considering that they have 4 gates there, I think some expansion will occur, but nothing too drastic that CO has to worry about.

These are just my observations and guesses. Take them for what they are.

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineAlias1024 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 2715 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6395 times:

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 2):
Exactly. I'm no fan of jetBlue, but CO has to watch it.

CO has more issues coming and obviously their CEO already has placed blame:

""We continue to face significant challenges," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner. "The price of oil still hovers at record high prices, JetBlue has invaded our Newark hub, Delta is using its bankruptcy advantage to expand into our profitable international markets and United Airlines, flush with $3 billion in exit financing and greatly reduced costs, is coming out of bankruptcy."

Looks like CO's stuck between a rock and a hard place

Or their CEO is trying to avoid being sued by investors. Executives must acknowledge the risks and challenges in their business, or they risk a lawsuit for painting too rosy a picture. Kellner probably learned this very well by watching what happened next door (literally across the street) at Enron. Ken Lay is now in court for misleading investors and not acknowledging the risks in their business.

Oh, if you think that CO is in trouble, listen to the B6 conference call. Much more doom and gloom than the CO conference call.



It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21416 posts, RR: 60
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6365 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
take a page out of the B6 playbook

While I think CO could use some E175s, taking a page out of the B6 playbook on 190s would make little sense for CO because:

CO has a large fleet of 735s and 733/73Gs.

B6 is having teething pains on the E190 and the CASM is higher than they are used to.

B6 is now posting losses and warning of the future. Why take a page out of a playbook that seems to be losing steam as the game goes on?

But the E170 or 175 would make sense for CO, because the CASM on that jet is lower than for the 145s they are using, and there are plenty of CO routes where the E145 is too small and the 735 is too large, and some of those cities are in florida, either as entire stations, or only certain frequencies. What is a negative impact for an airline like B6 with the E190 is a positive impact for an airline like CO with the E170. It all depends on your frame of reference.

I think CO would love to have E17Xs flying to PBI/JAX/SRQ from IAH and CLE, and also to EWR from these locations at certain times of day or times during the year. E17Xs would also open up a few more destinations from CLE, and increase capacity on LAX-Mexico routes.

Right now, their contracts make it difficult to get such a plane, but those hurdles will be overcome soon, one would guess.

Then, in the FUTURE, when the Boeing/Airbus 737/320 replacement war is in full swing, CO will know if there will be a 100 seater available. If not, they could then decide on the E190, now that the family is entrenched in their fleet via the E170 or 175.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineAirzim From Zimbabwe, joined Jun 2001, 1187 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6365 times:

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 15):
I don't work for them, but I am an investor and usually make very accurate guesses based on my observations of the company. Easy-to-obtain DOT data will tell you the loads, but those really don't tell me much about the actual success of the route. Here are some things I've observed about EWR flights:

1.) The yields are higher than JFK. Same sale fare, but because there is no connecting traffic (whereas JFK has Upstate), the average fare is higher.

You really haven't proved anything. Looking at published fares give you absolutlely no indication of yield. You don't know anything about special deals, group fares, purchase distribution among available fare products.

Average fare is about the worst indicator of performance. Two passengers that pay high fares but no other passengers show great average fare, but crap RASM. Yield is also problematic because it takes into account only sold revene seats. It can be very misleading.

The only true indicator of performance is RASM which accounts for both sold and empty seats. Some airlines will even include non revs in the calculation.

Most airlines give that information publically on an aggregate basis, not market or flight based.

So all the back of the envelop analysis based airport stats, and even published financials does not give a true picture of the situation.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6336 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
But the E170 or 175 would make sense for CO, because the CASM on that jet is lower than for the 145s they are using, and there are plenty of CO routes where the E145 is too small and the 735 is too large, and some of those cities are in florida, either as entire stations, or only certain frequencies. What is a negative impact for an airline like B6 with the E190 is a positive impact for an airline like CO with the E170. It all depends on your frame of reference

hmmmm..now that I've thought about it more...the E170-175 might be an interesting addition.....it does fit nicely on some of the routes you mentioned..

as you stated...the E190 closes in too much on the some of their 737's..

good call.. checkmark 



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineJetBluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2937 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6326 times:

Quoting Airzim (Reply 18):
You really haven't proved anything.

I agree that it doesn't really "prove" anything. However, David Neeleman himself has said publicly that both LGA and EWR have higher yields than JFK, which is a fact...

I can only speculate that this is because of the lack of connecting traffic. For example, B6's base fare from ROC to MCO is $79, but requires the routing to be ROC-JFK-MCO, thereby splitting that $79 fare between the two flights. However, a fare out of EWR doesn't have to be split into two segments, thereby giving it a higher yield and most likely higher RASM (of course, only if there were X passengers on both the EWR and JFK flights).

In any case, I think B6 has a ways to go before finding a level at which they can make money and still stimulate demand. They have started to crack that shell and the minds behind the airline shouldn't have much of a problem doing this.

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21416 posts, RR: 60
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6313 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 19):
as you stated...the E190 closes in too much on the some of their 737's..

yes, for now. but as I said, come 2012, when CO is making plans for replacing the 733/735s in their fleet, then the E190 comes back into play. Do they look for a 100 seater option from Boeing in the 797, or just take 733 and 738 and 757 sized aircraft in that class, and then take an E190ER for the 100 seat market? Does Boeing even offer a 100 seat 797? Who knows, yet.

But I would expect, especially with the ExpressJet contract losing exclusivity, that you will see COex 170s in the fleet soon, hopefully with a 6 seat F section, but if not, with 31-32" pitch in back and a 36" pitch Y section in front that is designated "blue" on their seating chart for Elite members. Maybe 2-3 rows?



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6285 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 21):
yes, for now. but as I said, come 2012, when CO is making plans for replacing the 733/735s in their fleet, then the E190 comes back into play. Do they look for a 100 seater option from Boeing in the 797, or just take 733 and 738 and 757 sized aircraft in that class, and then take an E190ER for the 100 seat market? Does Boeing even offer a 100 seat 797? Who knows, yet.

I agree...as I think that is a market not being addressed by Boeing......a 65-100 seat market plane is a growing market........Embraer has done well under the radar with its E190/195...


B6 have their E190s with rows 13-35 with the 34" seat pitch...having noting that, and with B6 basically being a "one-class" air carrier, I could see CO adding some extra pitch for an "expanded Y-section"......

but this is a market which CO must pay attention too....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineRwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3068 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6273 times:

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 2):
""We continue to face significant challenges," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner. "The price of oil still hovers at record high prices, JetBlue has invaded our Newark hub, Delta is using its bankruptcy advantage to expand into our profitable international markets and United Airlines, flush with $3 billion in exit financing and greatly reduced costs, is coming out of bankruptcy."

I just love how CO executives and CO fans on this board continue to make noise about DL's supposed bankruptcy advantages, yet CO continues to reap rewards from their double bankruptcies in years past.


User currently offlineCO767FA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 532 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6189 times:

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 23):
.....CO continues to reap rewards from their double bankruptcies in years past.

Really, list those "rewards"?


25 Ikramerica : If a personal bankruptcy goes off the books in 7 years, why is 11 years not enough for you for CO's emergence? Do you honestly think, in this very dif
26 Flyboeingjets : First of all, no one will be operating anything above 50 seats for Continental except for Continental mainline pilots due to the scope clause. Second,
27 Isitsafenow : That's not correct. JetBlue was stated in a newspaper late last fall saying the EWR flights were so far a disappointment but they(JB)was staying the
28 Ikramerica : This has been discussed elsewhere. You could see a modified scope clause limiting numbers until the next contract negotiation, or you could see CO ma
29 FlyingRev : I had the opposite experience. Just a few weeks ago I was on a CO 737-900 from EWR-TPA and it was completely full. The service was great. We got a lig
30 AirlineAV8tr : While I would love to see our airline get the new E-Jets, contractual limitations will probably prevent it. It was a surprise that COntinental PAnama
31 Ikramerica : yeah, as i said, one experience does not a trend make. i routinely find it very difficult to find seats on the florida flights on CO once the flight d
32 JetBluefan1 : I'm pretty sure you have your facts wrong. If not, then the newspaper was most certainly one that wasn't reputable. According to Neeleman, the EWR fl
33 727LOVER : On Saturday, I looked at CO's website to check on fares EWR-TPA. 6 months ago, I coudn't find anything under $200 (one-way) Too my shock, they have $7
34 Airzim : Which again means nothing. Yield by definition means calculating only the price yielded per mile on revenue seats sold. Much like average fare, you c
35 Antoniemey : You mean the two bankruptcies that Lorenzo forced them into with bad management, with the pending third one that Gordon Bethune and the people he bro
36 Bigdrewfl : This is all a miss understanding..... I can't recall Jetblue ever publicly saying anything bad about its operations in EWR. But I can tell you that t
37 Rdwootty : I think the main reason for CO being "full" etc is the large amount of connecting traffic from Europe to Florida.. I find it quite difficult to get my
38 Post contains images JetBluefan1 : Once again, the fares were lower out of JFK because of connecting traffic. Every airline has connecting traffic that they rely on to fill up their pl
39 Cory6188 : Well what did they expect? It's EWR, and the airport has banks of flights that are way beyond what the runway capacity can handle. Did B6 really thin
40 FlyingRev : Rdwootty You would think that it was weekend travel dates that was filled when I mentioned the full flts to TPA on CO. But, these were both mid-week f
41 Airzim : That may be true, but JFK may still have higher RASM than EWR despite having lower fares. Which may mean JFK is performing better than Newark. The pr
42 WDBRR : Read somewhere that CO blatantly counts B6 passengers boarding since they are in the same concourse in terminal A, can anyone confirm this? read they
43 JetBluefan1 : I highly doubt that...DOT figures are easy to come by. JetBluefan1
44 Cory6188 : Believe it or not, it's actually true. I arrived into Terminal A in November on a flight from PBI. As I walked through the small concourse area, I no
45 CODC10 : Continental absolutely counts B6 pax as they board flights. It is entirely legal, maybe slightly less ethical, but still within acceptable bounds. Thi
46 WDBRR : Maybe I am suspicious....do airlines "send" an employee to apply for a job at a major competitor to gain inside information and get access to computer
47 Post contains images JetBlueAtJFK : Yea I heard about that also like someone else said above, and I believe it too, lol. Well Dave Barger is an ex-CO workers and he was high up their. S
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