Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
"Air Travel = More Dangerous Than Driving"  
User currently offlineRichM From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2004, 798 posts, RR: 7
Posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8336 times:

You guys may be interested in watching Richard & Judy on Channel 4. Soon (within next 20 mins), An "expert" is about to come on and is going to tell people why flying in a commercial airliner "is more dangerous than driving" even though many believe the opposite.

Just thought I'd let you know.

[Edited 2006-02-08 18:25:36]

42 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21528 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8336 times:

Well the expert would be fighting against all statistics known to the free world.

Air travel is most safe, driving is one of the least safe (motorcycles/scooters even less so, as are bicycles).



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineCruzinaltitude From United States of America, joined May 2004, 415 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8336 times:

Id be interested in hearing what the "expert" takes into account in this gem of information, but Im going to have to say . . . nope.

User currently offlineGlom From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2818 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8307 times:

Channel 4 have got it in for air travel. Meanies.

User currently offlineLegacy135 From Switzerland, joined May 2005, 1052 posts, RR: 26
Reply 4, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8275 times:

Well, statistics can proof about any b..........it. Let's proof that going to bed is a deadly risk, as about one third of all human beings are going to die in bed! And this is for sure.......... So?

Cheers
Legacy135 Wink


User currently offlineGlom From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2818 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8264 times:

Quoting Legacy135 (Reply 4):
Well, statistics can proof about any b..........it. Let's proof that going to bed is a deadly risk, as about one third of all human beings are going to die in bed! And this is for sure.......... So?

Come on. You know that 78% of statistics are made up.


User currently offlineLsgg From Switzerland, joined Mar 2005, 577 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8251 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Well the expert would be fighting against all statistics known to the free world.

In 1985, the worst year in the aviation story, about 2400 people died because of airdisasters... Twice less than the number of people killed on the French road last year (2005).
Yes, the statistics are more than clear  sarcastic 



Swissair forever !
User currently offlineLsgg From Switzerland, joined Mar 2005, 577 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8233 times:

Quoting Legacy135 (Reply 4):
about one third of all human beings are going to die in bed!

If only !
I hope that statistic is correct : I would love to die in that way  Smile



Swissair forever !
User currently offlineLegacy135 From Switzerland, joined May 2005, 1052 posts, RR: 26
Reply 8, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8233 times:

Quoting Glom (Reply 5):
Come on. You know that 78% of statistics are made up.

Sorry, I didn't make so clear what I wanted to say: I wanted to say, that this journalist may proof by his statistic that aviation is unsafe as you say for sure........ 78% od statistics are made up. We both mean the same.

Cheers
Legacy135 Wink


User currently offlineHS748 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8214 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Air travel is most safe, driving is one of the least safe (motorcycles/scooters even less so, as are bicycles).

Not true - on the basis that most people take thousands more journeys in cars than they do in aeroplanes (and live to tell the tale) then statistics do indeed prove that driving is safer. However, we have to remember that statistics can prove anything you want them to - I know, for example, that 100% of respondents who expressed a preference agreed with me, so there, it must be true  Big grin


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21528 posts, RR: 59
Reply 10, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 8184 times:

Quoting Glom (Reply 5):
Come on. You know that 78% of statistics are made up.

Yes, 62% of all people know that.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently onlineCoronado990 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1598 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 8077 times:

Come on! Driving is not executed in a professional environment. Defensive driving is not professional. Having to drive for ten other people on the road and compensating for their mistakes is not professional. This is far from a safe environment. We can fill every seat in a football stadium yearly with dead people off the road. No one is ever going to convince me driving is safer. Period!


Uncle SAN at your service!
User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 8039 times:

Well, thats BS.

Must be a slow news day...did the little problem with Iran go away?


User currently offlineDemoose From Canada, joined Mar 2001, 1952 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 8028 times:

I happened to catch this little feature just now. The guy did not once imply that flying was more dangerous than driving, he merely said its not as safe as it is made out to be due to the way the statistics are generated, ie using miles travelled vs fatalities.

He made the interesting point that, as 75% of air crashes take place during take off and landing, the cruise element which contributes to the largest mileage of a flight, is therefore irrelevant and infact the more accurate way of judging air safety would be to have fatalities vs uplifts of aircraft instead of distance travelled.

When fatalities compared to uplifts is used as a way of assessing safety the difference between air safety and rail/road safety are reduced. However, that is not to say air travel is by any means unsafe, or that ground transportation is safer, but its an intersting point.

Mark



Take a ride...fly across the sky
User currently offlineRichM From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2004, 798 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8000 times:

Quoting Demoose (Reply 13):
The guy did not once imply that flying was more dangerous than driving

He didn't in the end, but shortly before he went on the show, Richard & Judy did state exactly that in my threads subject line and implied that it was the views of the expert in question.

[Edited 2006-02-08 19:58:08]

User currently offlinePhollingsworth From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 825 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8000 times:

Just to lend some things to the safety question. There are multiple ways that you can compare air-travel to other types of travel in terms of safety. Some of these include

1. Fatalities per pax-trip
2. Fatalities per pax-mile (pax-km)
3. Fatalities per pax-hour

They can all use the same basic input data but the answer as to which one is safer will come out very differently.

Also, one needs to consider what you are comparing. Are you comparing all aviation travel to all automobile/bus travel. Are you comparing professionally driven vehicles only, or some mixture. If you compare all air to all auto, the auto numbers almost always come out better, even on a per pax-mile basis. This is because the fatality rates for general aviation aircraft are awful. The comparison of professionally piloted vehicles only is a little different. This stems from the fact that aviation is so much more highly regulated than things like bus travel.

The typical comparison you here is commercially scheduled flights compared to all or personally driven automobiles. This is not a direct comparison, but is pretty apt as people tend to drive themselves to a destination, but pay a professional to fly them there. In this instance air-travel wins hands down on a fatality per pax-mile basis, as airplane trips are generally much farther. It also wins (in the West) on a fatality per pax-trip basis. So if your argument is that air-travel is safer these two statistics support you. The interesting thing is the third statistic. When comparing Fatalities on a per pax-hour basis, it is almost impossible to tell them apart, as people spend a lot more time in there car than they do on an airplane. If you compare commercial flights to commercial bus travel on a per pax-hour basis the busses win hands down.

All of the comparisons above are accurate. It just shows that there is an inherent bias in the question, based upon the assumptions that are used you can really skew an answer.


User currently offlineKatekebo From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 704 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7995 times:

Travelling by airplane is (much) safer than driving based on distance travelled (fatalities per million kilometers travelled).

But on per-trip basis, flying and driving are about the same - you have approximately the same probability of dying in an accident every time you fly and every time you ride in a car (even if the car trip may be only 5 minutes long) - approx. 1.5 per million on global basis. The probabilities change widely depending on the place you travel in - it's approx. 1 in a million in USA, about two times higher in Europe, and as many as 5 to 20 times higher in Africa or some Asian countries. But the probability of suffering a fatal accident on a given trip by airplane or by car remains roughly similar regardless of the location.


User currently offlineKaiGywer From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 12250 posts, RR: 35
Reply 17, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7995 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

One statistic that is proven correct is that 100% of people will die.


911, where is your emergency?
User currently offlinePhollingsworth From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 825 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 7840 times:

Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 17):
One statistic that is proven correct is that 100% of people will die.

Watch out because you are extrapolating a time series. There actually is an increasing error band as you project forward in time. This means from a purely statistical point of view there is a finite probability that someone alive today will not die, and the younger an individual is the higher the probability is that they would be this individual. A hypothesis test that will stand a better chance of holding is that everyone who was born in the significant past died.


User currently offlineLH459 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 886 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 7811 times:

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 18):
Watch out because you are extrapolating a time series. There actually is an increasing error band as you project forward in time. This means from a purely statistical point of view there is a finite probability that someone alive today will not die, and the younger an individual is the higher the probability is that they would be this individual. A hypothesis test that will stand a better chance of holding is that everyone who was born in the significant past died.

 wideeyed 

No wonder I nearly flunked statistics...



"I object to violence because when it appears to do good, the good is temporary; the evil it does is permanent" - Ghandi
User currently offlineHS748 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 7754 times:

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 18):
Watch out because you are extrapolating a time series. There actually is an increasing error band as you project forward in time. This means from a purely statistical point of view there is a finite probability that someone alive today will not die, and the younger an individual is the higher the probability is that they would be this individual. A hypothesis test that will stand a better chance of holding is that everyone who was born in the significant past died.

Sounds like a politicians answer to me! There is no doubt that the original quote was 100% accurate - every one of us will die at some stage and to suggest that statistically that isn't true is just a bag full of old nonsense.


User currently offlinePanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 7693 times:

"...Air travel is MUCH more dangerous than driving...and if you've been injured in an airplane accident, you need the law offices of Dewey, Cheatem, and Howe...call us at 1-800-NO-CASE for a free  wink  quote".

"The problem with the world is that there are too many stupid people out there...and no one to eat them!" - Carlos Mencia. I completely agree.



Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
User currently offlineKaiGywer From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 12250 posts, RR: 35
Reply 22, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7575 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 18):
Watch out because you are extrapolating a time series. There actually is an increasing error band as you project forward in time. This means from a purely statistical point of view there is a finite probability that someone alive today will not die, and the younger an individual is the higher the probability is that they would be this individual. A hypothesis test that will stand a better chance of holding is that everyone who was born in the significant past died.

I'm glad I took College Algebra instead of Statistics now  crazy   faint   fever 



911, where is your emergency?
User currently offlineBond007 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 5417 posts, RR: 8
Reply 23, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7549 times:

The quote kind if implies, and I may be wrong, that it's more dangerous to fly from say Tampa to Atlanta, than to drive the 7 hours.

I'll leave it to the people with the figures, but I'm guessing that the 7hr drive you're MUCH more likely to be killed in a road accident than on the 1 hour flight....in fact I almost was killed and totalled my car on that drive, but that's another story!

Jimbo



I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
User currently offlineRigo From Australia, joined Sep 2005, 91 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7531 times:

Quoting Demoose (Reply 13):
He made the interesting point that, as 75% of air crashes take place during take off and landing, the cruise element which contributes to the largest mileage of a flight, is therefore irrelevant and infact the more accurate way of judging air safety would be to have fatalities vs uplifts of aircraft instead of distance travelled.

When fatalities compared to uplifts is used as a way of assessing safety the difference between air safety and rail/road safety are reduced. However, that is not to say air travel is by any means unsafe, or that ground transportation is safer, but its an intersting point.

That's an interesting point, but you can also turn it the other way around: it means that air travel puts you at risk almost only during takeoff and landing; but the WHOLE trip is dangerous when driving. Therefore for long-distance travel, flying should be much safer than driving (sure, there's little doubt about this...)

Regards


25 Planespotting : Nah, his response was not a politicians response. It was a measured statistical formality from which he was able to logically deduce an hypothesis ba
26 OPNLguy : It's a "sweeps" rating period now, when they bring they trot out all the "exposes" of stuff that really doesn't warrant an "expose"...
27 Supa7E7 : _Per journey_, one person could be more likely to die in a plane than a car. But an average plane journey is like 800 miles, and car journey about 8 m
28 Bond007 : Right, but it's not a good comparison. What about the same trip by plane and car? Isn't that fair? That's how you might compare a bus trip vs a car t
29 Post contains images Piercey : flying is not pratical when you're going to the store just around the corner I'd like, just for once, someone to show me stats on car vs. plane stats
30 BG777300ER : I am going to have to say that in my opinion, Air Travel is much less safe than driving a car. Many people only look at numbers of how many people hav
31 Piercey : *cough* miracle in YYZ, UPS @ PHL today, midair collision over Millwaukee that one plane made it on the ground, B6 @ LAX, AS decompression, etc. *cou
32 Bond007 : That's why we are talking about fatalities not accidents. There is no logic in saying that just because if a plane crashes you are more likely to die
33 AirlineAV8tr : It's unbelievable with so much evidence to the contrary, that even a short hop would be dangerous. And by the way, the most dangerous form of mass tra
34 M404 : In Memphis, if you survive the Interstate to the airport, you've got a pretty good chance of getting to Grandma's
35 Ilovenz : Here's the big question I have: Can I truly trust the integrity of the vast amounts of coordinated effort to keep me safe in the air when airlines are
36 Wjcandee : This is the kind of irresponsible journalism that gets people killed. One great benefit of the "Southwest Effect" is that the lower fares divert peopl
37 Post contains images YOWza : All of this depends on whether you're flying America West and how close it is to happy hour no? YOWza
38 Str8fromthe808 : Well, in general your opinion makes sense given a 1 to 1 crash ratio but remember you are immensely more likely to get into a car accident than be in
39 Post contains links Varig767 : This site is regarding methods of computing air safety. http://www.airsafe.com/events/method.htm regards, Martijn
40 Don0245 : They obviously haven't been on roads in Massachusetts!
41 Mytravel330 : I would rather spend my working day flying round the skies than travel round the M25 my chances of surviving the day would be greater and I don,t need
42 Starlionblue : Going a bit OT here but what Phollingsworth said is in fact statistically true. Your error is that you are assuming (treating as a "fact") that every
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
1947 Air Travel - Really For The "well-off" Only? posted Mon Sep 6 2004 01:25:50 by L410Turbolet
Air Travel's "Golden Age"--Could It Be Repeated? posted Sun Nov 13 2005 16:57:11 by IcemanT37
"It Is 8 Times More Dangerous To Fly Over Africa" posted Sat May 14 2005 15:25:24 by Juventus
WN Flies More Pax Than Any "Major" posted Thu Aug 28 2003 15:02:45 by ThirtyEcho
J. Senfield Talks About "air Travel" posted Wed Jan 2 2002 00:20:24 by KLM672
Allegiant Air, "Flying Where Big Airlines Aren’t " posted Thu Sep 21 2006 15:46:31 by STT757
Nok Air Brings New Meaning To "Check-In Girls" posted Fri Sep 15 2006 16:58:12 by Leelaw
SIA: More A380 Delays "Frustrating" But Necessary posted Thu Sep 14 2006 09:30:26 by Singapore_Air
Why Does Air Travel Do So Much Than Rail? posted Sun Aug 13 2006 23:45:56 by Glom
Air Fares In Europe To "Double" - Article posted Wed Jul 5 2006 20:18:38 by N62NA