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How Will Boeing Respond To Likely Launch Of A320NG?  
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 11388 times:

Boeing & Airbus indicated new materials & technologies aren't usefull enough to justify all new 737A320 successors as long as there isn't a significantly better engine.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2605673

During the last 15 years improvements to the A320 have been introduced gradually. Now signals become stronger Airbus will market / launch a Mid-Life Upgrade of the A320 series, incorporating new technology developed during recent years.

Airbus to flight-test wing tip devices for A320 family 15/02
Details emerge of a proposal to equip the narrowbody with large winglets. The winglet concept is being tested on the manufacturer's A340-300 development aircraft.
http://www.flightinternational.com/A...s+studies+large+A320+winglets.html

CFMI tests advance CFM56 techology 14/02
Flight tests on the Airbus A320 and 737 are scheduled for late this year ahead of service entry in 2007.


Pratt will start testing its new NB engine in 2007.
“We are evaluating what we might do for a flight test following a ground “test demo”, says Austin. “There are several options we are considering relative to one of the airframe makers, but we see going to flight tests after the ground demo as an important step in terms of risk reduction.”
http://www.flightinternational.com/A...tion+airliner+geared+turbofan.html

If these GTF engines prove more efficient / quieter then the V2500 and customers want to order it, a solution with IAE/ RR becomes inevitable IMO.

20% Improvement in fuel consumption are unlikely, but combining new technology (structural composites (tail), Al Li, Leap56, Awiator and SILENCER noise reduction projects) and stretching the A320 up a few rows could lead to significant improvements at limited costs and retaining commonality with the current fleets.



A E2 Billion investment and a 1000-2000 airframes forecast for such a A320 NG until something new arrives doesn't seem unreasonable.

Question: how will Boeing respond in the "No New Engine Yet" 2007-2013 timeframe?

A Boeing 737FG (Final)?

35 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKrisYYZ From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11231 times:

Well I think that the key to a planes performance are its engines. I could see Boeing come out with new B737s based on the B787. The GEnx or GP7200 technology could be used to develop a 20-30K thrust engine.

So basically same story has the B777 vs A340, B777 could only come to be when the 80-100K engines were developed. If newer engines with better performance aren't developed then the improvements are very limited. I can't see Boeing or Airbus touch their narrow-body designs without new propulsion technology.

krisyyz


User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2754 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11143 times:

If Airbus pursues this idea I hope they will offer the A320NG with two different wingsets put on the plane. One more efficient for short range (A318 and A319) and one with a larger wingspan for the A320/A321 to increase the range and thereby offering allot of new routes.


Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11111 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
20% Improvement in fuel consumption are unlikely, but combining new technology (structural composites (tail), Al Li, Leap56, Awiator and SILENCER noise reduction projects) and stretching the A320 up a few rows could lead to significant improvements at limited costs and retaining commonality with the current fleets.

I'm not so sure a 20% improvement is required for either company. 10-15% should be enough and BBD believed they could net that with the C-Series. 10-15% is huge on a high cycle medium/short haul aircraft. The 787/350 needed the 20% to make an 8,000 mile trip economically feasible with so few pax. Neither of the 737/320 replacements will seat fewer people. 10% improvement nets a fuel saving of 200,000 to 280,000 gallons a year per, add to that more reliable systems and and esay to maintain aircraft and you can save overall about 15%.

That's huge.

In answer to your thread title. Build a lighter bird and use the same engines.

[Edited 2006-02-15 16:39:51]

User currently offlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4575 posts, RR: 41
Reply 4, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Given that, according to the first thread referenced, both Boeing and Airbus have only been able to predict operating cost savings of 3% using all the new technology currenly available, it would seem that any A320NG could be easily countered by a 737NNG (or vice verse, if Boeing is the first to blink and offer a plane to the market). It all comes back to the engines - the brand new narrowbodies won't appear until newer technology engines are available. Perhaps a second generation A320 and fourth generation 737 would be the ideal solution to the concerns about a new generation powerplant not being available - it would provide aircraft with incremental improvements on their predecessors, while giving the engine builders more time to perfect the new engine technology that will power the 21st century narrowbodies.

Given the apparently conflicting reports about whether the next generation of narrowbodies has been delayed (the impression a lot of the threads based on FI articles recently have given), or sped up (the impression given int he FI article linked above), perhaps this intermediate step is being seriously considered in Seattle and Toulouse?

V/F

[Edited 2006-02-15 16:42:46]


"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
User currently offlineJRadier From Netherlands, joined Sep 2004, 4714 posts, RR: 50
Reply 5, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Basically, Boeing will have to do something. Not because I am in favor of Airbus (trying to shoot down the AvsB remarks about this), but because Airbus will be in the lead if they launch the A320NG (better economics).

It is hard to say if Boeing will start from scratch, or will upgrade the 737 once again, allthough the second makes more sense. Same as a A320 upgrade, if you keep the basic design (wich has proven to be good, for both) and only upgrade the needed parts you keep a pretty good comonality between the older generations and the new ones, wich is important because of the sheer numbers of 737NG's/A320's out there.

Basically, I can see Boeing upgrading the 737 once again (might not be called 737) because a complete redesign is very expensive and not really needed (major difirences are engines) and keeps comonality.

Jurgen



For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and ther
User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting VirginFlyer (Reply 4):
Given the apparently conflicting reports about whether the next generation of narrowbodies has been delayed (the impression a lot of the threads based on FI articles recently have given), or sped up (the impression given int he FI article linked above), perhaps this intermediate step is being seriously considered in Seattle and Toulouse?

My hunch is we'll know more in a year. A lot more.


User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2754 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

The Boeing 737NG was outsold last year by twice as many A320 series. If this trend continue, then Boeing should look at ways to make the current 737 more attractive. Even lighter, new wider interior at lower prices?

Both Boeing and Airbus will hesitate to make a completely new replacement until they have the new engines ready.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineColumbia107 From Gibraltar, joined Aug 2004, 358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

I think Boeing's marketing team recognize that the single-aisle plane was a comparative weak spot in what otherwise was a strong competitive year for Boeing in 2005 against rival Airbus.

We all know that Boeing replace its 737NG in the not-too-distant future. In fact Boeing executives have indicated that a 737 replacement could be in service between 2012 and 2015.

My suspicion is that Boeing is looking to replace its single-aisle aircraft with one using low-cost composite airframes, such as those being built into the 787 together with more efficient engines.

As the 787 is earmarked to take its maiden flight circa 2008, one suspects that Boeing will embark on a 737NG replacement circa 2009. It is then that engine makers envisage having more powerful engines.

It is therefore quite clear that Boeing is not looking at introducing a new single-aisle today but it will look at it as soon as they understand the 787 technology and how it can be best leveraged in a single-aisle. This I suspect will be around 2009.

Boeing is absolutely right. In the aerospace industry it's better to be right than first.

But as everyone knows, competition makes Boeing's manufacturing plans very fluid.



In God we trust
User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31702 posts, RR: 56
Reply 9, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Currently both the B737NG & A320 Family are selling well.However When One opts for the Upgrade,The other will def follow suit.Its the timing that is the Mystery.
Presently there def will be Plans floating around in the respective organisations.

regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Question: how will Boeing respond in the "No New Engine Yet" 2007-2013 timeframe?

I think Boeing must try to avoid the 767-787 situation happening to them at this moment.

The 767 stopped selling in 2001, less then 1 a month were build last year, the 787 will not get up to speed before 2009.

In this 2001-2009 period Airbus is having a party with the A330. 6-7 rolling out every month without price competition.

IMO Boeing will somehow have to prevent the narrowbody line to get into the same situation. The older one quickly loosing marketshare, the great new one sold well, but on paper only.

IMO Boeing will be the one to put high pressure on the Engine OEMS to come up with something not to long from now..

[Edited 2006-02-15 17:29:43]

User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4120 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Question: how will Boeing respond in the "No New Engine Yet" 2007-2013 timeframe?

That's a good question...I'd like to hear Airbus' answer to that as well.

Boeing has already indicated that they are in preliminary design stages for the 737 replacement, that the 787 technology will be utilized, and that it won't enter service until the 787 is proven and customers can see that Boeings predictions were accurate (and if history proves itself again, fairly conservative). Airbus isn't going to kill the A320 off right as sales start picking up, so I don't think Boeing has anything to worry about at this stage.

Also remember, the technology Airbus will need to compete with Boeing's 787 technology has not been developed in Toulouse yet. That will add significant time to the A320NG development (Boeing was working on composite technology for the 787 for several years before the 7E7 concept was even drawn up).

To answer your question...I don't think Boeing will deviate from the plans they already set in action, and if they do, it won't be by much.


User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1597 posts, RR: 17
Reply 12, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 7):
The Boeing 737NG was outsold last year by twice as many A320 series. If this trend continue, then Boeing should look at ways to make the current 737 more attractive. Even lighter, new wider interior at lower prices?

I prefer the A320 over the 737. But when you look at sales you also have to look at the customers, and how each company books orders. Airbus may have sold more but I don't think many of these orders will ever get delivered to the customer. It's called inflating the order books for PR purposes.



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 10):
In this 2001-2009 period Airbus is having a party with the A330. 6-7 rolling out every month without price competition.

I thought the A332 competed with the 767 and the A333 competed with the 772? Airbus delivered 56 A330s in 2005 (47 in 2004), isn't that less than 5 per month in 2005 (4 per month in 2004)? Airbus sold 64 A330s in 2005 which resulted in an order backlog of 186 units at year-end.

http://flightinternational.com/Artic...+race%2c+despite+A350+setback.html

[Edited 2006-02-15 18:26:37]

User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6808 posts, RR: 32
Reply 14, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 10):
I think Boeing must try to avoid the 767-787 situation happening to them at this moment.

Is this like the A330-A350 situation?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 10):
The 767 stopped selling in 2001, less then 1 a month were build last year

How's that A340 backlog and build rate going?

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus to flight-test wing tip devices for A320 family 15/02
Details emerge of a proposal to equip the narrowbody with large winglets. The winglet concept is being tested on the manufacturer's A340-300 development aircraft.

They're only what, five years behind Aviation Partners Boeing on that?


User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 15, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

First off, A330 isn't that cheap to opperate to begin with. It's not bad, it is economical, but not worth replacing your paid off 767s cheap to opperate. Airlines are less interested with 787/A350 on the horizon.

Neither A320 nor 737 is going to make a big deal with any updates. A320 will probably update to catch up to the more recent 73G in a few newer technologies. I'm really hoping Boeing gets a bleedless engine for their 797. A 737/757 sized dreamliner inspired airplane would be very attractive. A320 being newer, I'm not sure aerodynamically what they'd change. They'll likely do what they did with A350 over A330, save some weight, get new engines, update the interior, refine the aerodynamics, call it a new plane.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineWhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 15):
Neither A320 nor 737 is going to make a big deal with any updates.

I wonder...

one thing everyone seems to be missing here are the thee magic letters FBW.

The 737 is conventionally set up, and Boeing has plenty of experience with the 777 FBW systems. Maybe they could surprise us all and start thinking about a hybrid 737 update which leads into Y1, but offering the FBW systems in the existing package.

The beauty of FBW is obviously that there is both a maintenance and cost payoff, as rigging an aircraft for cables is labour and time intensive. Fitting FBW systems helps keep the A320 assembly simpler. Boeing has existing technology out there to provide a 737-type of flying experience without the sidestick.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21562 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Boeing will "respond" with an all new plane.

In the same way the 345/346 were first to market but inferior, if Airbus goes with the 320NG route, and Boeing goes clean sheet, the 797 would be superior even if a year later.

That said, that wouldn't make the A320 a bad choice. It's a great plane now, and in NG form, it'll be a great plane for years, and the importance of superior in this class in terms if a miniscule fuel burn differences is not nearly as important as long range quad vs. twin economics.

The A320NG would be a great plane that fits in well with current A320 operators and new entrants alike. The 797 already needs to be better just to try to win some customers back it lost to the A320 in the first place.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineAreopagus From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1372 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
If these GTF engines prove more efficient / quieter then the V2500 and customers want to order it, a solution with IAE/ RR becomes inevitable IMO.

If Pratt's GTF is as big a win as Lightsaber suggests, and a reengined A320 with other updates starts to dominate the 737NG, then I think Boeing will be forced to develop a clean-sheet 797, because:

  • The 737 is contractually bound to use CFM engines.
  • The new, more efficient engines will have larger fans, which are incompatible with the 737's short landing gear.
  • The bigger, longer range 737s must be pushing it regarding the weight on 2-wheel main gear. At some point, pushing their narrow-body planes into the 757 replacement market should require 4-wheel bogies, shouldn't it?


  • User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 19, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

    I think everybody is assuming (maybe correctly) that the engines are key for the next gen narrowbodies. But the way I see it there may be other technologies that may make a replacement much more viable in other ways.

    Perhaps a composite fuselage may allow more time before overhauls. A larger fuselage may as well provide for faster loading and unloading. You may do the same with baggage, with a system that takes the bags in one door and out the other. Reconfugure the galley to perhaps allow more seating with a smaller fuselage size, etc.

    I think there are other ways to make whatever NGs come around more efficient to operate in other ways rather than fuel alone. Maybe the maintenance can be made easier by providing easier access to the more common maint. items. There just needs to be better thinking.


    User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 20, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

    While I am sure both Airbus and Boeing have new single aisle designs under development, I don't see Airbus killing off its very successful A320 family, which is still outselling the 737NG. And given the number of 737NG Boeing is selling, I don't see them killing off the 737NG. Why should either do anything?

    Right now both have their hands full with the A380/A350 and the 747-8 and 787.

    However, when one or the other trots out a new plane, the other will too.


    User currently offlineJRadier From Netherlands, joined Sep 2004, 4714 posts, RR: 50
    Reply 21, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 11029 times:

    Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
    Boeing will "respond" with an all new plane.

    Could you back that up, maybe shooting down some reasons I gave against this in reply 5.

    Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
    In the same way the 345/346 were first to market but inferior, if Airbus goes with the 320NG route, and Boeing goes clean sheet, the 797 would be superior even if a year later.

    Hardly comparable, we are talking about aircraft that are not even designed yet. Changing this comparisation a bit, we'll talk A320 and 737NG (yes, the current line). A320 was new, 737NG a redesign, still the 737NG came along very well (maybe not the last year, but it has done it for years). According to your 'new plane=better' theory, the A320 should have won hands down.

    Could you please elaborate on these points?

    Jurgen



    For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and ther
    User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2472 posts, RR: 9
    Reply 22, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 10934 times:

    http://www.flightinternational.com/A...7+and+Airbus+A320+replacement.html

    Per this FI feature, it's unlikely either B or A will introduce replacements for their narrow-bodies for about another ten years. Why should they when both are selling so well? I tend to think that Boeing will have to go with a mostly or all-new design, next time, incorporating FBW and greater use of composites while Airbus can get away with a major makeover of the basically newer A320 airframe, also incorporating more composites. BCA needs to build cockpit commonality with the 787 into a 737 successor; the 737NG's lack of such with other Boeing's is likely a factor in its losing sales ground to the A320 family in recent years. Though performance-competitive with the A320, it's essentially older basic design will need more of an update than required for the A320 line. But, although replacement studies are ongoing, neither airframer is in any rush to replace their best-selling products. It seems any talk of an imminent launch of new-gen single aisles is just that - talk.


    User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 23, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 10872 times:

    Quoting AvObserver (Reply 22):
    BCA needs to build cockpit commonality with the 787 into a 737 successor

    I keep hearing this mantra about cockpit commonality for years, but as far as I understand no airline has ever interchanged on a day to day basis their pilots from a narrowbody to a widebody.

    Clarify if you may, please.


    User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2472 posts, RR: 9
    Reply 24, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 10824 times:

    Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 23):
    keep hearing this mantra about cockpit commonality for years, but as far as I understand no airline has ever interchanged on a day to day basis their pilots from a narrowbody to a widebody.

    You're probably right that it's not common practice, especially on a day-to-day basis but A320 family cockpit commonality with Airbus widebodies is an advantage Boeing doesn't have with the 737NG. LCCs planning to acquire widebodies for future route expansion just might appreciate this, as undoubtedly do mainline carriers already operating both Airbus single and twin aisles. Since this reduces time needed for pilot cross-qualification, it would help facilitate pilots being promoted from single to twin-aisle operations. While that doesn't happen daily, it does happen and this Airbus feature makes the process easier.


    25 AndesSMF : Ok, I see. So it might be easier for the pilots transitioning to a bigger airplane because everything would be in the same place. Probably a good thi
    26 Keesje : Agree. My point is what if A does this in the next few years, while it is not worthwhile for Boeing to come up with a new aircraft unitil 2013? Boein
    27 Shenzhen : Unless Airbus does something with the way they bring new products to market, Boeing can probably wait two years after a A320NG launch and still beat t
    28 Ikramerica : Why should I correct your logic flaws. Oh, and BTW, even thought the 737NG is more efficient and lighter, the A320 is beating the 737NG quite handily
    29 Columbia107 : Could it be unrealistic pricing which apparently Boeing is not prepared to match?
    30 JRadier : So I (and maybe others) can learn from it? Plus that's called a discussion, backing up statements and 'shooting down' wrong ones) I am aware of that,
    31 Wukka : Just an observation, but based on conversations that I've had with those that have transitioned across the lines, the "commonality" thing from a cock
    32 OyKIE : I was under the impression that many pilots go from the 757 (narrowbody) to the 767(widebody) on a daily bases and that a crew can land in on a 767 a
    33 Post contains images Gr8Circle : Or largest, longest, etc...... Airbus always seems to be desperate to be one up on Boeing, often ending up with a loser.....
    34 DfwRevolution : It's likely that Y1 will have one fuselage but several wings. This could be as simple as a high-MTOW wing and a low-MTOW wing, or a scaled-up wing fo
    35 Post contains links and images OyKIE : According to Mulally Boeing can do three different fuselages. I read this as three airplanes Does he mean we consider one out of three, or that they
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