Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
My Predictions For 2006  
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 9906 times:

Any predictions for this year?

Here are my guesses.

SQ - lots of 787s and some 772LRs. Dump A345.
EK - 787 in vast numbers.
QF - lots of 777-300ERs, and more 737NGs.
NZ - some 773ERs.
NH - 748s.
Mexicana - 772ERs and LRs.
LAN - more A319/20 and some A332.
AV - some 73NGs and 787s.
Garuda - firm up those 787s.
BA - a load of 773ERs, and a load more A319/20s.
EZY - 40+ more A319s. Maybe some A320s.
Philippines - 773ERs.
Saudi - a ton of 787s and probably 773ERs too.
Yemenia - A350.
Aeroflot - A350 or 787? - i think 787 despite reports to the contrary.
TK - some 772ERs and possibly some 787s as well.
KLM - some 773ERs, and a load more 73NGs.
SNB/VEX - 73NGs. No widebody order yet.
Royal Brunei - six 772ERs.
El-Al - some more 777s, and more 73NGs.
RAM - more 73NGs, firm their 787 if they havent already.
Tunisair - 787s.
Vietnam - more 787s, more 777s (probably not new leased).
Austrian - more 777s, and some A319s.

Airbus gets their asses handed to them basically.


What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
55 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineViv From Ireland, joined May 2005, 3142 posts, RR: 28
Reply 1, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 9885 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year

My prediction: Most of your predictions will be wrong.



Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 9842 times:

Im an airline analyst - its my job to get these things wrong.

If anyone could predict these things then they would be millionnaires. I personally, at this point in time, dont think i'm that far wide of the mark with too many of these.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineViv From Ireland, joined May 2005, 3142 posts, RR: 28
Reply 3, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 9823 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
personally, at this point in time, dont think i'm that far wide of the mark with too many of these.

I'll let you know in a year's time.



Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 4, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 9807 times:

Quoting Viv (Reply 3):

Looking forward to it already. I'll just assume you know best for now.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineViv From Ireland, joined May 2005, 3142 posts, RR: 28
Reply 5, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9794 times:

Who me? I'm an economic analyst, my predictions are ALWAYS wrong!


Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
User currently offlineSabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 46
Reply 6, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9794 times:

Quoting Viv (Reply 1):
Most of your predictions will be wrong.

Well going by this one:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
SNBA/VEX - 73NGs. No widebody order yet.

I'd have to say Viv is right.

SN will NOT order ANYTHING in 2006.
This has been confirmed TODAY by both Sir RB as well as by the President of the board of shareholders of SN Mr. Davignon on a meeting with SN/VEX staff in Brussels. (if you hurry you can still ask him; the meeting is still going on here in the building I am sitting in)


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9099 posts, RR: 75
Reply 7, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9794 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
SQ - lots of 787s and some 772LRs. Dump A345.

Know someone who just received a 5 yr captain contract on the 345 with SQ.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineViv From Ireland, joined May 2005, 3142 posts, RR: 28
Reply 8, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9770 times:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 6):
in the building I am sitting in

Justus Lipsius?



Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7150 posts, RR: 57
Reply 9, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9740 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Saudi - a ton of 787s

Is that a metric ton, or an imperial ton?



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlineMalaysia From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 3352 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9663 times:

Martial Aviation, this time instead of fare wars, Airlines will use deadly force, oh wait the Mad Max time isnt in the near future


There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9607 times:

LOL BestWestern - you should know that in Saudi - a tonne is anything that you say is.

How do i know?

Port agency work in The Kingdom. "by the Word of Allah, this vessel is XXXX dwt tonnes"

It clearly isnt - but just try arguing that.

Allah says so.

Therefore it is true.

Nuff said.

Anyway - back to the topic.

Wonder if SV will fancy some nice shiny new 737NGs to replace those MD90s to go with their new shiny new 787s?



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineKrisYYZ From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9607 times:

My crystal ball says:
AC - To firm up on 3-6 B777s and 15-20 B787 orders. Also will make a big push to take away business from the US airlines on N.America to Asia and South American routes.

NW and CO - to merge, KLM partnership gone. NW will retire B742, DC-10 and DC-9s, more A330s and B787s CO to order more 787 and 777s.

MA - To acquire B763 and retire the B762s and CRJs, more F-70 or even F-100s.

BA - will look at the B747-8 and B773ER more seriously than the A380, possible order?

Airbus- A380 performance will be less then thought, big push on the A350 and A346E

Boeing- Drop in Orders compared to '05, but will grab the headlines by winning orders from major carriers.


Krisyyz


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9607 times:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 6):
I'd have to say Viv is right.

SN will NOT order ANYTHING in 2006.
This has been confirmed TODAY by both Sir RB as well as by the President of the board of shareholders of SN Mr. Davignon on a meeting with SN/VEX staff in Brussels. (if you hurry you can still ask him; the meeting is still going on here in the building I am sitting in)

Perhaps not in 2006 then - but got to be soon.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineCornish From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 8187 posts, RR: 54
Reply 14, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9541 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year?

Here are my guesses.

You may be an airline analyst (so am I) but you really should know by now that you don't tell people these are your "guesses".

You say: "From my extensive research using a fail-safe confidential model, my findings clearly show...." Big grin



Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8565 posts, RR: 13
Reply 15, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9541 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

you're a brave man Chris , I will wait to Jan 2007 before making my predictions for 2006 .... all the ones I made for 2005 were completely wrong ... I am hoping that hindsight will improve my accuracy Big grin


Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9453 times:

Quoting Cornish (Reply 14):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year?

Here are my guesses.

You may be an airline analyst (so am I) but you really should know by now that you don't tell people these are your "guesses".

You say: "From my extensive research using a fail-safe confidential model, my findings clearly show...."

LOL best not to mention being an analyst at all I would think.

Seriously though - we dont really get chance to make bold predictions like these anyway - and theres only so much you can accurately predict in this industry.

You cant predict the industry, but you can always predict that the industry will be The Industry.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineHiJazzey From Saudi Arabia, joined Sep 2005, 869 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9394 times:

Chris,

Things aren't that bad!
I believe Jeddah port has become very professional since privatisation.

Anyway, I agree that SV will most likely order 787s this year, but I don't think it will be in huge EK/QR-esque numbers. They'll be quite conservative, particularly since the government will not help them stump the cash. They'll probably order about a dozen.

AS for the 773ER, I don't think they're in a hurry to buy them. They'll keep the 744s for a little longer.


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 9363 times:

Quoting HiJazzey (Reply 17):

LOL i worked for Kanoo out there and loved every minute of it fella.

KFC in this country just isnt as nice!



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4434 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 9321 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
TK - some 772ERs and possibly some 787s as well.

I am no analyst, this is just a huge wish.
6x772ERs
24x787s
and even some 332s till they arrive.


User currently offlineCuprita From Spain, joined Aug 2005, 129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 9231 times:

IB- 6/8 A380 and 18 A350


PANASONIC DMZ-FZ5
User currently offlineBR076 From Netherlands, joined May 2005, 1086 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 9169 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year?

Ryanair- 10x A380 single class 800 seater



ú
User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 22, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9126 times:

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 12):
NW and CO - to merge, KLM partnership gone. NW will retire B742, DC-10 and DC-9s, more A330s and B787s CO to order more 787 and 777s.

The DC-10s are being phased out and replaced with A330s. A merger with continental? It could work, I mean their codeshare is very effective, but do you think financially functional continental wants seriously messed up Northwest. That would be the ugliest merger ever. Also, a fleet of A330s and 787s? I guess it's no worse than the fact you'd have 737s side by side with A320s. Certainly doesn't lend itself well to low maintnance costs, but hey.

Honestly, I'm not seeing NW merging with anyone. Also, what are they replacing that huge fleet of DC-9s with?

At this point, i think Northwest has a better chance of having their pilots strike, the airline going under, and their assets being bought out by someone else, who could just be continental, than being part of a merger. NW is the most messed up legacy carrier flying, no one else wants to touch their ugly labor disputes, poor management, declining customer sentiment, and ancient mainline fleet. American has the money to do it, but no incentive. DL and UA are not in financial position to try such a thing.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineZkojh From China, joined Sep 2004, 1701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9065 times:

Any predictions for this year?

NZ - some 773ERs - not yet, 772ERs and 787's order comming around may/june time,



NZ 787-9 flying between PVG - AKL ! CAN'T WAIT!!
User currently offlineKrisYYZ From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 years 7 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9025 times:

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):

You have a good point, I agree that I would be next to impossible financially.
But out of all the major US carriers, I would still say CO and NW are somewhat compatible.

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):
I guess it's no worse than the fact you'd have 737s side by side with A320s

A lot of airlines run A320 and B737, LH UA

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):
DC-9s with

CRJ-705s... ( largely saying that cause Im Canadian)


Krisyyz


25 Post contains images USADreamliner : My predictions: air france will increase flights from Charles De Gaulle British Airways will fly mainly to/from LHR and LGW Some Airlines will join Al
26 Post contains images IAHFLYR : CO worked very hard to get their fleet as it is now, NW would toss that into a huge ball skettie let alone the labor issues at NW, just don't see tha
27 COERJ145 : NW should merge with HP/US if anything. The US west/east coast hubs would complement the large midwest presence NW has. If so, NW will probably drop
28 Lumberton : Can't buy this; I've got to ask why CO would want to buy labor problems? HP and US still haven't resolved pilot seniority issues. On a side note, wil
29 Post contains images SAIL52115 : Yep, I do believe once the pilots strike (that's a WHEN!, not an IF), NW will be but an unpleasant labor memory. As such, FL will buy up whatever ass
30 MYRIJET : You surely mean AeroMéxico I Guess
31 Post contains images Alaska737 : AS will hopefully be on time and more reliable, and they get more 737-800's
32 Pmurr : Will be a bumper year for the crew in Seattle if you're close.
33 Aeroman62 : NW or DL goes chapter 7 and liquidates, probably NW, sells their pacific routes to either AA or CO, WN moves into MEM, expands at DTW, moves into MSP.
34 Misbeehavin : ROFL! The CRJs aren't always bad. On shorter flights (under approx 1.5 hours or so), I prefer the CRJs. They don't have First class, but I love that
35 Boeing727flyer : BA will not add this year - not enough spare cash. I predict US AIRWAYS back into Chapter 11 again.
36 FCYTravis : US definitely won't go bankrupt again this year - if nothing else they have enough cash to burn to cushion for awhile. I don't think they're out of th
37 Columba : Lufthans will decide if they will order the 747-8I or not, also the decision will be made wether they will buy the A350 or the 787.
38 Carpethead : That's not happening but more 773ERs wouldn't hurt plus maybe even more 787s in addition because the 787 slots are filling up quickly and domestic 76
39 RootsAir : Forget it they'll go for airbus 332 in LAN livery would look amazing !
40 HighFlyer9790 : Even though Im a boeing fan, im afraid it won't be too lopsided. plus, no one can predict how the airline industry will turn out this year. if we had
41 Post contains images Piercey : I see MA trying to get their hands on 777s You're not, I am NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The starving spotter has been punished enough, don't leav
42 Post contains images GoCOgo : Why would CO have to dump a Midwest hub because of new west coast hubs? My (probably inaccurate) predix: DL goes belly up after their pilots strike.
43 NWDC10 : Oil prices will rise and cause weak carriers into CH7. NW and DL will file CH7. The US economy will continue to weaken and those airlines still flying
44 NWDC10 : Also with Detroit auto workers being layed off, this will especially hurt NW. Robert NWDC10
45 Bmacleod : Like it or not, one US major will bite the dust either this year or next year and my crystal ball is telling me NW or DL. Regarding an earlier discuss
46 Post contains links Gemuser : The 773 wont happen in 06/07 because: 1) They dont need it 2) They already have about $A12 BILLION worth of aircraft on order. (Thats about double th
47 Post contains images 7LBAC111 : I love it when people say NO but choose not to offer an elaboration to support this knowledge. 7L
48 SunriseValley : I don't see the -300ER in NZ's future unless the 2X daily AKL-LHR dilutes traffic to the extent that the 747-8 is no longer the logical replacement f
49 FCYTravis : Ummm... how about, NO? They're *ADDING* trans-atlantic routes, if you haven't been paying attention. ARN, MXP and LIS are getting new service for 200
50 Jacobin777 : which is a shame considering they were instrumental in the design of the 777, and now the only carrier to be instrumental in the design process and n
51 SunriseValley : and a SYD/MEL to JFK and maybe DFW service.
52 Gemuser : They will not happen unless SYD/MEL-LHR happens. If LHR happens, I think DFW non stop is more likely than JFK non stop. JFK via DFW is also possible.
53 RAFVC10 : When I listen this notice, about 773, I believe it. My guesses for BA this year and next: - Completely retirement of all 737 classic aircrafts and su
54 Danimarroquin : I agree with the AV predictions . the 737 and 787 are the ones that fit more to AV plans .
55 Srbmod : AirTran. Some of the institutional shareholders in AS/QX will tire of the crap going on due to Menzies and put forth the idea of a merger of the two
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
My Idea For Delta's Success At JFK posted Mon Oct 2 2006 02:45:59 by Kaitak744
Scasd Awards For 2006 posted Thu Aug 10 2006 05:45:53 by Ouboy79
My Vote For Worst: MCO posted Sat Apr 29 2006 17:58:57 by JFKLGANYC
SQ Fleet Changes For 2006 posted Sat Feb 4 2006 04:26:24 by Zvezda
Aerorepublica Plans For 2006-2007 posted Fri Feb 3 2006 17:43:55 by RICARIZA
JetBlue Posts 4Q Loss, Warns For 2006 posted Wed Feb 1 2006 15:48:58 by TOLtommy
Japan Asia 747 Questions For 2006 posted Fri Jan 13 2006 04:15:07 by AirAmericaC46
777 Output For 2006 And 2007? posted Thu Jan 12 2006 21:00:42 by NYC777
New LH American Destinations For 2006? posted Sat Jan 7 2006 21:15:51 by USAF757300
Latin American Airports: What's New For 2006? posted Sat Jan 7 2006 01:12:23 by Carmenlu15