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NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?  
User currently offlineN908AW From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 903 posts, RR: 1
Posted (8 years 2 months 9 hours ago) and read 10299 times:

One can't help but think with NW and DL both $150 million+ away from a deal with their pilots....a strike could happen, and would shut down the company(ies). What would happen to the industry if they both dissolved? We're talking about 15%+ less capacity!


'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
70 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNwafflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1050 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 9 hours ago) and read 10294 times:

That's the #3 and #4 largest airlines in the world -- I can't see them going under, and personally, as a skyteam member, I hope they don't. Flying on NW tomorrow, and am booked with them into March

User currently offlineMrSTL From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 468 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 9 hours ago) and read 10266 times:

Hmm, we would see airfares skyrocket, Dallas and Denver would become bigger overnight, F9,B6,FL,WN would expand as quickly as they could get planes. The desert would be a wasteland of DC-9's and there would be a lot of hard working middle class workers on the street. Let's hope it doesn't happen!

[Edited 2006-02-18 18:18:20]

[Edited 2006-02-18 18:19:06]

User currently offlineNwafflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1050 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 9 hours ago) and read 10235 times:

And those of us who are business travellers would be at the mercy of American and United and US Air -- too bad AirCanada isn't in the US

User currently offlineIsitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 8 hours ago) and read 10172 times:

Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 1):
I can't see them going under,

Oh, I can. And the percentage looms larger in favor of that everyday
a deal is NOT reached with unions. I am ticketed on NW next week, twice in March and once in mid April and I don't think I(or anyone) is to going make the April trip with NW.
The odds are now working against it. Some of the NW pilots will trip on over to Virgin-America who is now looking for Airbus pilots for their new airline.
safe



If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
User currently offlineRedneckslim From Congo (Brazzaville), joined Sep 2005, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 8 hours ago) and read 10087 times:

I hope like hell they do! Both don't deserve to live, between screwing the employees and pax alike..... to hell with um'! The bottom line for unmedigated greed is death. A fresh new start vis-vis a totally new Airline, or just giving those still standing an injection of business would teach those on wall street a lesson. I'v had 100.000 NWA miles taken back because I tried to give them to my sister and NWA plays God and assumes they were sold! Got on a Delta flight after a hard day, and found out the G.D. catering bill had not been paid and no catering for that 5 hour flight! A diabetic can't use cokes and pretzels! Someone had bought a bunch of sandwitches before the flight and I was gifted one. Phuckk this kind of treatment! I pay serious Airline money, not bus fare! "Only the strong servive" sang Jerry Butler, Sing on Bro. Butler!

User currently offlinePetmbro From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 8 hours ago) and read 10014 times:

Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 1):
That's the #3 and #4 largest airlines in the world -- I can't see them going under

As sad as this situation is, we have to think back 15 years ago to the days of Pan Am and Eastern. Two huge carriers from way back in the pioneering days of flying both ceased to exist from massive debt and striking pilots (ironic how DL dominates ATL like Eastern and operates out of the Pan Am Worldport at JFK). Size doesn't matter. If you screw over your pilots and they don't fly, then you're up a creek. Its a shame they couldn't learn from past mistakes.

[Edited 2006-02-18 19:36:00]


"don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining!" - Judge Judy
User currently offlineCadet57 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 9085 posts, RR: 31
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 8 hours ago) and read 10014 times:

Quoting Redneckslim (Reply 5):
hope like hell they do! Both don't deserve to live, between screwing the employees and pax alike..... to hell with um'!



Do you honestly beleive all that you just said? You are talking about THOUSADS of peoples JOBS and LIVELIHOODS. If you have anyone to be pissed at you shold be pissed at the management. Not the rank and file that work their asses off everyday to make sure as hell that they WONT be on the street next week becasue MANAGEMENT screwed them. So next time when your shoot your mouth off wishing people lost their jobs, realize they are not the ones who loose 8 million a day. Realize their the ones who work their asses off each day to help DL and NW stay afloat for another day...

[Edited 2006-02-18 19:50:45]


Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 11919 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 7 hours ago) and read 9954 times:

Quoting N908AW (Thread starter):
One can't help but think with NW and DL both $150 million+ away from a deal with their pilots....a strike could happen, and would shut down the company(ies).

Same thing was being said when US and UA were on strike. Odds are totally against this happening.

Quoting N908AW (Thread starter):
What would happen to the industry if they both dissolved? We're talking about 15%+ less capacity!

A lotl of their assets would get reused, so we would not see 15% less capacity.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineNorthwestair From Poland, joined Jul 2001, 641 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 7 hours ago) and read 9918 times:

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 4):
The odds are now working against it. Some of the NW pilots will trip on over to Virgin-America who is now looking for Airbus pilots for their new airline.
safe

I bet you that Virgin America won't hire any of the NW or DL Pilots if they go on Strike. I know I wouldn't. If our Pilots go on Strike then they better run down to the nearest Home Depot and get an application. I really don't see there being a strike by either airline and I hope there isn't.



I don't care who you fly just as long as you fly
User currently offlineMKEdude From South Korea, joined May 2005, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 7 hours ago) and read 9918 times:

I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't completely discount it either. Even if they fix their respective union troubles, another spike in the price of oil could be enough to finish them off. In such a scenario ATL, DTW, MSP, CVG and SLC would become ghost towns overnight, and airfares would skyrocket. CO and UA would be the big winners initially as they would rush to fill in the void in the international markets, while B6 and FL would struggle to get their hands on any plane they could find.


"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline." Frank Zappa
User currently offlineRedneckslim From Congo (Brazzaville), joined Sep 2005, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 7 hours ago) and read 9881 times:

The employees would quickly be taken in by the lucky airlines that get the spoils vis-a-vis pax who still must travel and will come running with reservations in hand, the employees in most cases have all worked for other airlines before coming into NWA by way of mergers, transfers, and just looking to go with a different airline (poor fools) These highly experenced and trained people would be needed by the carriers taking the left over business NWA and DL left behind. I was recently on a LAX-NRT flight with a F/A in business who was a Republic/Air West transplant who started out as a PSA F/A

User currently offlineNorthwestair From Poland, joined Jul 2001, 641 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 7 hours ago) and read 9871 times:

If Crude Oil spikes again DL/NW won't be the only Airlines out of Business you will see possibly CO/AA/UA/US. Right now both AA/CO are at the same point were DL/NW was last year. So I wouldn't be surprised if you see CO/AA in the BK courts. I hope not, but it could happen.


I don't care who you fly just as long as you fly
User currently offlineNWDC10 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 7 hours ago) and read 9871 times:

Watch the invation of airlines into ATL Robert NWDC10

User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3788 posts, RR: 29
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 6 hours ago) and read 9799 times:

Quoting MKEdude (Reply 10):
In such a scenario ATL, DTW, MSP, CVG and SLC would become ghost towns overnight,

But not for long. In no more than 30-60 days the capacity lost at each of these airports would be replaced as called for by market demand by other airlines who would move quickly to reallocate resources to fill the void. Keep in mind that a very significant number of pax using these airports are "just passing through" on connecting flights; these pax could be, and would be, redirected through other hub cities on other airlines with relative ease -- almost overnight.

As for non-stop services between the airports named and major cities, primarily for the benefit of O&D pax, we would see the likes of Southwest, AirTran, JetBlue, Sun Country, Frontier, Spirit, and perhaps even Virgin America, pick up much of the slack as quickly as they could obtain additional aircraft. And who knows? -- a legacy or two may even "think outside the box" and add some point-to-point non-stop routes between non-hub cities from the "ghost town" (for a few days to 2 weeks at most) airports -- with mainline equipment no less!


User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 6 hours ago) and read 9760 times:

Quoting MKEdude (Reply 10):
CO and UA would be the big winners initially as they would rush to fill in the void in the international markets,

Assuming both airlines can get their hands on additional aircraft for that purpose. The four lenders at UA might grant them additional capital to pick up some used aircraft, but then our government (and others) will be wary of letting UA have even more flights into NRT, FRA, etc. than they already do. Would UA be the dominant carrier into NRT if NW fails? Would Japan and the US allow that? Very, very doubtful. AA and probably CO would get more flights, not UA...especially with W in the White House.

UA is walking a tightrope in terms of available widebodies to use on its routes, and losing a 744 (temporarily) in MEL a week or so ago doesn't help the summer Australia-US market either.


User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11117 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 6 hours ago) and read 9731 times:

Quoting Northwestair (Reply 12):
If Crude Oil spikes again DL/NW won't be the only Airlines out of Business you will see possibly CO/AA/UA/US.

AA has built up an enormous cash balance of over $4B (the most of any U.S. airline today) for this exact reason -- in the event of a shock or other major event that would materially negatively impact their cost of operations in an extreme way.

Quoting Northwestair (Reply 12):
Right now both AA/CO are at the same point were DL/NW was last year.

That is completely false. As for AA, AA is actually cash positive and has been for several quarters. AA and CO both have low operating costs (relative to the majors, but also increasingly relative to even the LCCs who have watched their costs creep up due to labor and fuel of late) and both are firmly on the way to recovery. They are -- by no means -- "[where] DL/NW was last year."


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24635 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 6 hours ago) and read 9703 times:
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Quoting Northwestair (Reply 9):
I bet you that Virgin America won't hire any of the NW or DL Pilots if they go on Strike.

Why not? They're still good pilots.

If NWA has brought its labor relations to such a sorry pass, most educated industry observers would understand the reasons for a strike.

Strike is not necessarily an ignoble word. The present freedom of Poland began with the strike st Gdansk.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineSongStar From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 132 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 6 hours ago) and read 9627 times:

Quoting Redneckslim (Reply 5):
Got on a Delta flight after a hard day, and found out the G.D. catering bill had not been paid and no catering for that 5 hour flight! A diabetic can't use cokes and pretzels! Someone had bought a bunch of sandwitches before the flight and I was gifted one. Phuckk this kind of treatment! I pay serious Airline money, not bus fare! "Only the strong servive" sang Jerry Butler, Sing on Bro. Butler!

Catering bill was paid...Gate Gourmet was playing "God"....and that's a fact...while your business is greatly appreciated i have never understood why someone who is diabetic travels without something to eat in case something happens...who's playing russian rullette ??

Also...those who lose their jobs aren't so quickly going to run to another airline that is now paying starting flight attendants somewhere around $17 an hour...it equates to about $17,000 a year....( ie: united's recent hiring )

It's not so easily remedied....I hope only the best for both airlines...

You're angry....I guess that's understandable...the Delta catering thing was well over a year ago....could you possibly let go? it's not good to keep so much hatred built up inside...


i'll close by asking this....where does your airline loyalty lie now? are you true to one carrier? and how are they measuring up? Hope things are working out


User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4792 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 5 hours ago) and read 9385 times:
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Quoting Petmbro (Reply 6):
As sad as this situation is, we have to think back 15 years ago to the days of Pan Am and Eastern. Two huge carriers from way back in the pioneering days of flying both ceased to exist from massive debt and striking pilots (ironic how DL dominates ATL like Eastern and operates out of the Pan Am Worldport at JFK). Size doesn't matter

But people forget that when PA and EA went out, they were merely shells of their former selves; their rather paltry size back then did not have much of an impact on the nation's air transportation system (in fact, PA was never that big to begin with). However, in the case of NW and DL, even though they have been reducing capacity, they are many times larger than PA and EA were at the end of their lives. Both NW and DL going on strike and shutting down at the same time would have a pretty significant impact (at least in the short-medium term) and you're likely to see the government step in to ensure that "significant disruption in the nation's air transportation system does not affect economic activity and growth.." Maybe if one of them was on strike would not necessitate the Bush Administration stepping in, but the two at the same time certainly would.

Quoting SongStar (Reply 18):
You're angry....I guess that's understandable...the Delta catering thing was well over a year ago....could you possibly let go? it's not good to keep so much hatred built up inside...

i'll close by asking this....where does your airline loyalty lie now? are you true to one carrier? and how are they measuring up? Hope things are working out

SongStar, I certainly admire your sense of patience and healthy attitude with this kind of stuff...I guess that's why you guys make such great FAs....I often see the kind of crap FAs have to put up with from idiotic pax. and I know I would never have the patience to deal with such situations...I would have smacked the passenger a long time ago....Keep up the good work at Song/DL and good luck with the re-integration back into DL Mainline.


User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 5 hours ago) and read 9356 times:

Let me put on my armchair CEO cap and put a prediction for ATL if DL goes out (If NW went out, it would be a bit of a blip since DL and FL already serve the cities NW flies to out of ATL):


United and America take over all of Concourse T (American takes over most of T South, United the rest).

Continental and Northwest take over half of Concourse A, Southwest takes over the other half.

AirTran takes over Concourse B and ASA stays on C North, as AirTran restarts AirTran JetConnect (Contract EV and OO to operate it) to provide regional feeder service out of ATL (and their new hub @ SLC) to a number of cities. They make a deal to acquire or lease a large chunk of the DL 738 fleet. They also add the 757 to their fleet as well.

Most of D North goes to US Airways, with Virgin America, JetBlue, Frontier, and Spirit taking up most of D South. Part of D South will take on a touch of the maple leaf as Air Canada increases service (and adds several cities) and WestJet enters the ATL-Canada market as well.

On Concourse E, some of the current International airlines will increase service, but some other airlines will enter ATL as well. Virgin Atlantic, Japan Air Lines come in to replace some DL service, plus CO, UA, and AA start some international services out of ATL as well. FL will add some international destinations as well.


User currently offlineRaes From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 4 hours ago) and read 9098 times:

Even though NW and DL serve predominantly different markets, it is possible that one of them going into Ch. 7 could modestly contribute to keeping the other out. Assuming the survivor resolved its immediate labor issues (a daring assumption), it could benefit with others from the potential for fare hikes and rapid expansion in the short-to-medium term.

Again, the fate of WorldPerks and SkyMiles-- if and which airlines step in to take advantage of the newly orphaned loyalty-- will be an interesting study of the current state of the industry.



Alles für diesen Moment
User currently offlineVega From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 4 hours ago) and read 9005 times:

If the Bush administration has any money left, they would surely categorize an imminent demise of both NW and DL as a "national disaster" (which it would surely be) and render aid.

User currently offlineImperialEagle From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2058 posts, RR: 20
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 4 hours ago) and read 8914 times:
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Quoting Panamair (Reply 19):
But people forget that when PA and EA went out, they were merely shells of their former selves

But for the sake of argument, it seems to me that DL has indeed, become a shell of its former self, at least here in ATL. What with all the down-sizing, lay-offs, early retirements, and "outsourcing" of so many services. It is not an encouraging sign.

I am sure the same thing is going on at NW's base.

In my opinion the shut down of either DL or NW would be awful in just about any terms imagineable and if both shut down in rapid succession---a disaster for our economy in general.

When PA shut down it had already sold off its Pacific division to UA so it had lost its mass, and EA was not a "world-class" player when it shut down either.
BOTH DL and NW have become "world-class" players in the game since PA/EA shut down.

Yeah, in the event either one or both fold, others will step in and eventually fill the void----but like all MAJOR changes in life----it will not be easy.
I will sure hate to see them go.  twocents 



"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough!"
User currently offlineN742AT From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 46 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 4 hours ago) and read 8914 times:

IF DL/NW would strike and become no more, yes a lot of people would be out of jobs but if you think about it, chances are that most employees would just get hired on by another airline. Its like everyone is saying every airline would be scrambling to get there paws on airplanes to begin to fill voids where they feel necessary which will create more jobs which would eventually level itself out. I have seen it happen before in MDW and IND when TZ had their cut backs most of there employees are now employed by FL. So to say that many people would be out of a job is not so true. Granted there would be a few that would be left with no job in the end and I hope it never happens but in reality its business it happens everyday. Especially in the airlines your job is never promised tomorrow.

25 Isitsafenow : I hate to wreck your train but a big hunk of that $$$$ belongs to the bank and not AA. Airlines or any business that have time to time cash flow prob
26 Commavia : American has accrued long-term debt in the last four years in order to build up their short-term cash and investment equivelants balance, no doubt ab
27 Panamair : Yes, psychologically, DL may be a shell of its former self, but DL RPMs are still solidly #3 in the country (quite a distance between #3 and #4) and
28 AirRyan : The simple plain truth is that airfares are relatively as inexpensive today as they were 25 years ago and that is the reason as to why US carriers ca
29 Alitalia744 : There's more at stake for the employees than "simply loosing their jobs and getting hired on by another airline." one had to account for the phsyical
30 N742AT : Oh believe me I know there is more at stake than losing a job and getting hired by another airline. I once went through this with an airline where my
31 Post contains images ImperialEagle : The "old timers" in retail used to say "a half a sale is better than no sale", and speaking of old timers that reminds me--------. I seem to recall a
32 Jumbojet : The million dollar question: I just recently booked a flight on Delta.com flying JFK to KUL on Korean air metal. If Delta should fold will Korean air
33 Isitsafenow : [quote=Commavia,reply=26]American has over $4B in cash and short-term equivelants. That is hopefully more than enough to handle just about any conceiv
34 Thepilot730 : All I can say is that DL and NW will not go on strike. If the pilots DO go on strike the President will envoke a National Strike Emergency, under the
35 ATCRick : All arguments are valid here and I compliment all posters for not turning this thread ino a bashing thread. Bottom line, a ton of decent, hard working
36 Sllevin : The unions will have to cave in the end. The airlines know this. Airline management types can find comparable jobs over time either at other airlines,
37 Jacobin777 : given where AA's stock is right now and where other carriers stock is such as B6, "The Street" seems to think that AA has a better chance of survivin
38 Commavia : Now, let's think through this. When a shock comes, why would banks want to call in debts that they know American would not be able to service, subseq
39 Devil505x : Its all bs. US shouldn't be around as they were written off by many but they ain't dead yet either.
40 Carpethead : First off, I hope airline management and unions can settle things very civilized way and no carrier has to cease business. As for worst case scenario
41 Scotron11 : I know PanAm and Eastern, Braniff & TWA happened. But I cannot think of Delta going under. Northwest the same. Maybe a "gigantic" merger would be good
42 Commavia : In the scheme of things, I think a merger ("gigantic" or otherwise) would be about the last thing that either or both of these airlines need. It woul
43 G4resagent : I am going to be traveling RNO - MBJ this July. Out of RNO, Delta is the cheapest. Should I pay the extra $50 and fly UA/US/HP or take the chance and
44 Aa757first : I agree with that. Pilots are probably the least mobile people in the world. A very limited number of employers (I bet 20 airlines account for 85% of
45 Scotron11 : In the scheme of things, I think a merger ("gigantic" or otherwise) would be about the last thing that either or both of these airlines need. It does
46 Skymileman : Ooh, you know, I always thought Northwest (The company) would be getting what they deserve if they went out of business, but now that you put it that
47 JJeff : Agree that odds are against but would add that Delta and Northwest probably aren't viewed as equally strategic to the well-being of the US economy as
48 Scotron11 : Agree that odds are against but would add that Delta and Northwest probably aren't viewed as equally strategic Which was the government's view on UAL
49 Commavia : Agreed. Indeed, I think this is definitely going to be a strategy both actively pursue -- trying to generate as much respective revenue for each othe
50 JJeff : A little oversimplified. Bank credit is usually comprised of revolving and fixed loans and, these days, secured by assets. Credit facilities are typi
51 DeltaL1011man : Quoting Redneckslim (Reply 5): hope like hell they do! Both don't deserve to live, between screwing the employees and pax alike..... to hell with um'!
52 Raes : Take a chance if you will, but spend $17 on Trip Cancellation insurance specifically covering the case of common carrier default. You can purchase it
53 Boeingguy1 : In all honesty, if overcapacity is the problem in the US' market, sadly, the way to correct it is for one or two carriers to take the fall. I know the
54 G4resagent : Thank you! I will take my chances with DL. If all else fails, I'm sure I could "borrow" Amex points from the parents.[Edited 2006-02-19 05:44:39]
55 Flywithjohn : DL and NW are nto goign anywhere. No other airline has A. the planes B. the pilots to pick up that load. If they do go under this "they would get jobs
56 Antoniemey : It's not overcapacity that's killing airlines, it's underpricing and poor management. One or both of the Airlines in question need to figure this out
57 UAL777UK : Dont count on that, DL and NW are not his "Home Town" airlines!
58 Thegooddoctor : Classy... Redneck I'll grant. Leichtenstein, eh?
59 Bobnwa : AA's debt is significantly more than its cash reserves(borrowed money) resulting in a not so strong financial position. It is in better shape than th
60 Commavia : American has about $30B in liabilities, about $8B of which is set to mature in this year. However, of that $8B due in approximately the next year, $6
61 Post contains images Brettdespain : We all assumed the worst for United and U.S. Airways, and they're not completely out of the woods yet either. However they're doing much better than a
62 Jumbojet : I just recently booked a flight on Delta.com flying JFK to KUL on Korean air metal. If Delta should fold will Korean air still honor my ticket?
63 Jetfuel : ummmmmmmmmm.... Panam, Braniff, TWA, Eastern, Independence, Midway How quickly we forget
64 Raes : Who knows? Why don't you call KE? In general no one can predict how other airlines will respond to the demise of a large carrier but history suggests
65 Poitin : Exactly. The loss of DL and NW, and probably UA is inevitable because they can not adapt. Darwin was right about the plants and animals and airlines.
66 Raes : Darwin was also right that evolution / adaptation is a slow process occuring incrementally over a protracted period of time. I would say it is premat
67 Post contains images HunUtazo : AMR....................................................nwac or assets CAL.....................................................ual after 'rightsizing'
68 Gigneil : Yay another post from HunUtazo with no logic or rationale. What could LUV possibly want from DAL? N
69 StevenUhl777 : Mr. Tilton, Please...UA needs you. Get off the internet and back to WHQ so that we can start turning a profit.
70 Post contains images ER757 : and I know that no one wants to pay more to fly but airlines can't keep selling seats at a loss forever. Better that they raise fares a little now th
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