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Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?  
User currently offlinePeterinlisbon From Portugal, joined Jan 2006, 524 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 4364 times:

This is a continuation of a previous topic, which was getting to over 100 posts and it gets a bit tiresome to load that up every time.

I've been researching the subject of Peak Oil and actually the situation is a lot worse than I thought. I just wanted to reassure myself that aviation had a future of more than 40 years and unfortunately what I've found out is that actually it might not even last for another 20.

In 20 year's time oil production (assuming we're at peak about now) could be half what it is now. In the 1970s a shortage of 5% led to price rises of 400%. Image what a shortage of 50% would do to prices. 1000$ per barrel in 20 years time perhaps?

The point is not so much whether or not there is oil. The point is the price. An airline makes money out of flying passengers from one place to another. At the moment they can make a profit doing so. In the future this business will no longer be profitable. So what happens then? What happens to a businesss that is not profitable?

I believe that the decline of aviation is already beginning. Many large airlines have gone bankrupt, some have disappeared whilst others have been bailed out by the government. Many others are in poor financial health... Alitalia might collapse very soon, most of the big American airlines are at or close to bankruptcy.

So, it is already a delicate situation and it is going to get worse. Oil prices will rise to 100$, 500$, 1000$ over the next 20 years. Never mind running out. Long before this happens there will be very little commercial aviation left, because who can afford to fly at those costs?

Ok, so I invite comments. I would be very happy if any of you can prove me wrong.

[Edited 2006-03-09 02:13:35]

43 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePeterinlisbon From Portugal, joined Jan 2006, 524 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4349 times:

Something else that's just occurred to me as an example of how important the price of oil is. Imagine that it was more common, that we could get as much as we wanted in any country without having to import it from the Middle East. What would aviation be like if oil was at 5$ per barrel? I think that we would all be flying around at 5 times the speed of sound in the latest version or equivalent of Concorde. London-Tokyo would take about 2 hours. It's not the technology that's holding us back. It's just that it's not profitable because of the price of oil.

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21532 posts, RR: 59
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4300 times:

We aren't at peak now. People have been claiming we have been at peak since the 70s. Supplies are artificially constrained by cartels, and the ability to find new supplies is hindered by environmentalism, but that is not the same thing as running out.


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6195 posts, RR: 34
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 4243 times:

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
Ok, so I invite comments. I would be very happy if any of you can prove me wrong.

Peak oil has not even nearly been reached... even conventional oil such as in the Middle East. Furthermore, there has lately been a lot of news on CNN and MSNBC about the oil tar sands in Northern Canada (Alberta) where there are proven reserves that are second only to Saudi Arabia and, depending upon the eventual price of oil, potential recoverable reserves which would be the largest in the world. Another large, untouched unconventional deposit is in Venezuela where there are huge reserves of heavy bitumen in the Orinoco basin. And in the USA there are very large deposits of oil shale.

In short, the world will not run out of oil any time soon... certainly not in our children's lifetime. What it may run out of is the very cheap oil that we (and the airline industry) had become accustomed to.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinePeterinlisbon From Portugal, joined Jan 2006, 524 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4213 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
We aren't at peak now. People have been claiming we have been at peak since the 70s.

In the 1970s we peaked in discovery of oil. I.e. since then we have been discovering less and less new each year. What we are about to hit is peak production. It can't keep on rising forever, there is obviously a limit, and this limit is about to be reached or perhaps has already been reached. We will only know afterwards, when we look back and see that production in 2006 was less than in 2005, for example.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 3):
Peak oil has not even nearly been reached... even conventional oil such as in the Middle East.

Where did you read that? This is not true. It is imminent. Production will definitely peak within 5 years at the latest. Maybe it will be this year. The consequence of this will be huge rises in prices. The tar sands are very large but they are not oil. They can be only be converted to oil through a very expensive and energy-consuming process. It might slow the decline in production but it won't stop it from declining.


User currently offlineBond007 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 5417 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4204 times:

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
I believe that the decline of aviation is already beginning. Many large airlines have gone bankrupt, some have disappeared whilst others have been bailed out by the government. Many others are in poor financial health... Alitalia might collapse very soon, most of the big American airlines are at or close to bankruptcy.

This has little or nothing to do with oil, or the price of it.

If oil goes up in price, then the airlines need to increase the cost of the ticket to cover it. Airlines today are not good at charging what they need to in order to make a profit.

Fuel accounts for 20-15% of operating expenses ..... reduce the other 80%.


Jimbo



I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
User currently offlineYOWza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4891 posts, RR: 15
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4191 times:

Until we evolve to grow wings, we're not going to see the end of civil avaition .

YOWza



12A whenever possible.
User currently offlinePeterinlisbon From Portugal, joined Jan 2006, 524 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4189 times:

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 5):
Fuel accounts for 20-15% of operating expenses ..... reduce the other 80%

It does at the moment, but if it doubles in price it will be 40% of operating costs and if it doubles again it will be 80%. And it will within the next few years.


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4015 posts, RR: 13
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4184 times:

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
Where did you read that? This is not true. It is imminent. Production will definitely peak within 5 years at the latest.

I have an old magazine from the mid-70s. The cover has a glass globe like the Earth, about 1/10th of the bottom full of oil. On top a hysteric headline about how we are running out of oil. So yes, it's imminent. It's been imminent since the early 70s.



Stop pop up ads
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6195 posts, RR: 34
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4157 times:

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
Where did you read that? This is not true. It is imminent. Production will definitely peak within 5 years at the latest.

Not true??? Sorry, but someone has really been feeding you misinformation...

The Oil Sands of Canada hold recoverable reserves of 175 billion barrels with a proven reserve life of 480 years and another 130 billion barrels of potential reserves, which is second only to Saudi Arabia's 262 billion barrels.

http://www.oilonline.com/news/headli...siness/20060302.MSEV_com.20529.asp

EDMONTON (CP) - Alberta has enough oil in its tarsands region to last for hundreds of years, says Energy Minister Greg Melchin.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cpress/20060...ca_pr_on_na/alta_tarsands_report_1

According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Venezuela had 77.2 billion barrels of proven conventional oil reserves, the largest amount in the Western Hemisphere. This estimate, however, does not include substantial extra-heavy and bitumen deposits, which could be as high as 270 billion barrels.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Venezuela/Oil.html

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
They can be only be converted to oil through a very expensive and energy-consuming process.

The Alberta boom is made possible by the recent rise in oil prices to $67 a barrel. Tar sands production for many years had been considered cost-effective at $23 a barrel, and with improvements in exploration and extraction technologies, the price tipping point has fallen into the mid-teens, officials here say.

http://www.eenews.net/specialreports/tarsands/sr_tarsands1.htm

I could go on and on but if you research for yourself you will find that we are in fact far from running out of oil. Perhaps just really cheap oil - but not oil!!



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineBond007 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 5417 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4131 times:

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 7):
Quoting Bond007 (Reply 5):
Fuel accounts for 20-15% of operating expenses ..... reduce the other 80%

It does at the moment, but if it doubles in price it will be 40% of operating costs and if it doubles again it will be 80%. And it will within the next few years.

You might also want to research the price of oil over the past 30 years or so. The price today is less than it was 20 years ago (adjusted for inflation), far less than almost every other commodity.


Jimbo



I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21532 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 4117 times:

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
What we are about to hit is peak production.

Only because we aren't adding enough production facilities, NOT because we couldn't produce more at any time.

With all due respect, you don't know what you are talking about. You are believing the hype. My brother consulted for the oil industry in Houston, and his take on the matter is 180 degrees from yours. And he has more information than you.

Saudi Arabia itself could produce 3 times the oil it does now if they would build more wells. They just don't want to. There's no incentive because they are a major player in a cartel that acts as a near monopoly.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 8):
It's been imminent since the early 70s.

See the movie "The Man With The Golden Gun" My favorite bond movie, and full of worries about running out of oill

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 9):
Perhaps just really cheap oil - but not oil!!

True. Getting oil from the shale in Colorado or the sands in Canada or the Arctic reserve in Alaska is more expensive than cheap Saudi oil. Far different than running out.

That said, at $60 a barrel, all those options become viable. Problem is, that as soon as OPEC sees us trying to do it, they will let the price drop back to $30, where the cost becomes prohibitive. One reason that "$180 oil" is not a long term worry. It couldn't stay there because all new sources that can provide $45 oil would pop up as fast as possible.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineBabybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 4110 times:

Airlines operate successfully on cheap oil. The other oils mentioned are expensive to extract. Prices will be going up.

Places like UAE have been gearing their economies for the oil running out for many years.

However, I believe with the collapse of businesses, due to decreasing consumer demand, all airlines will be back to operating flights to destinations 3 times a day; a morning, afternoon and evening flight.

Just my crazy thoughts.


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6195 posts, RR: 34
Reply 13, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 4099 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 11):
Problem is, that as soon as OPEC sees us trying to do it, they will let the price drop back to $30, where the cost becomes prohibitive.

It is too late for that now. Oil sands development has reached a critical mass and extraction costs are now running between $13-15/barrel and dropping as the more efficient extraction technology and ancillary infrastructure comes on stream.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineGr8Circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3107 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (8 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 4094 times:

As mentioned above, the world is far from reaching a point of all the oilfields running dry, planes dead on the ground, automobiles immobilised, etc....this is a dream fantasy of hopelessly out of work journalists who like to whip up their imagination to get an article into their respective publications.....usually, without any strong understanding of the issue itself...

I remember reading such alarmist articles almost 20 years back when I was a kid and wondering what would happen to all the planes and cars in the future...well, 20 years have passed and all is well....

Oil prices, sensitive as they are to geo-political trends, will continue to dictate how affordable or unaffordable flying will be, but the taps won't run dry too soon.....  smile 


User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8115 posts, RR: 53
Reply 15, posted (8 years 6 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4003 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
We aren't at peak now. People have been claiming we have been at peak since the 70s. Supplies are artificially constrained by cartels, and the ability to find new supplies is hindered by environmentalism, but that is not the same thing as running out.

We are near or past peak. The graphs for oil use and production in our society look like the Washington Monument - vertically up one side (from the 50s to the present) and straight down the other side. Reserves are artificially inflated, indeed have not been revised downward for decades, because far from not being bothered to drill more holes, the Saudis et al actually have less that they say, so as to avoid punitive restrictions placed on them (and their ability to make $$) by pumping less to conserve what's left. Speaking of conservation, those environmental pressures that provide a stay of execution to the Canadian landscape to get the oil shale are well-founded, you have to strip mine the entire area, trees, wildlife, all living stuff is bulldozed and denuded. Believe me I'd rather walk or spend my life farming and getting around on a horse than have oil companies plough through millions of square miles of wilderness just so I can sit in a traffic jam on my way to a crappy job.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 3):
Peak oil has not even nearly been reached... even conventional oil such as in the Middle East. Furthermore, there has lately been a lot of news on CNN and MSNBC about the oil tar sands in Northern Canada (Alberta) where there are proven reserves that are second only to Saudi Arabia and, depending upon the eventual price of oil, potential recoverable reserves which would be the largest in the world.

See above. Forget Canada - see above about the damage this kind of drilling / mining operation will do to the environment. It's not a world you want to live in brother.

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
In the 1970s we peaked in discovery of oil. I.e. since then we have been discovering less and less new each year.

Peaked? Discovery of oil ended in 1968, our last major discovery of new oil. You know Google Earth? We've had a similarly detailed survey of the earth's entire crust for ages, it's not like we're in an era of dopey Texans randomly drilling holes in the earth and striking untapped black gold. We know every square inch of the planet inside and out, and every last drop of oil.

Quoting YOWza (Reply 6):
Until we evolve to grow wings, we're not going to see the end of civil aviation .

I think we'll see the end of a lot of transport in our lifetimes including almost all aviation (and shipping). Remember that in the, say, 70s (the first oil shock), the only countries using oil were the US and Canada, western Europe and maybe Japan. That's about 20% of the world's population, or less. Nowadays everyone uses oil as a (or the) key part of their economy except Papua Nuigini and the Solomon Islands. China and India alone make up 25% of the world's population and they're going for it like crazy. Like I said, the graph of industrialisation looks like the Washington Monument, and we're about to go down the other side.

Anyone who says there's enough left for decades (or 480 years! hilarious!) is wrong. Too many oil companies are fudging the figures. And the alternatives are just not there. I saw a video report about the end of oil made for execs and government (and may be out on DVD later in the year for the public) and let me put it this way: there was a lot of footage of Amish people.



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineDL787932ER From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 597 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (8 years 6 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3969 times:

Oh, lord. The idea of "peak oil" isn't anything new; alarmists and environmental nuts have been predicting the "peak" of oil production forever. People have been proclaiming that oil will run out in ten or twenty years for the past hundred and forty years.

Oil speculators are propping up the current price of crude far beyond the natural level of supply and demand. In other words, supply and demand still functions as it always has, but the "demand" is from people bidding up futures and not from the actual consumers of oil. The reality is that between a slowdown in speculation, abiotic sources, oil shale, and the trillions of barrels still available by natural means, we could have $20/bbl oil for the indeterminate future.

I do hope that in the long term we can figure out efficient fusion, so we can be done with all the oil nonsense. But no one currently alive (based on current life expectations) should ever realistically worry about "peak oil" unless they have some kind of ulterior motive. I'm a little worried that this thread was created by someone with some political motives.



F L Y D E L T A J E T S
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6195 posts, RR: 34
Reply 17, posted (8 years 6 months 4 days ago) and read 3916 times:

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 15):
See above. Forget Canada - see above about the damage this kind of drilling / mining operation will do to the environment. It's not a world you want to live in brother.

Protest to the Alberta government... but you would be far too late for that already! Funny that in the country where Greenpeace was founded there are no protesters throwing themselves in front of the oil sand's heavy equipment like they do elsewhere in Canada to save a stand of trees!

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 15):
Anyone who says there's enough left for decades (or 480 years! hilarious!) is wrong.

You might do a little research and learn a thing or two about how much oil is already being produced in the Alberta oil sands... and how much more will be produced with the billions of dollars that major oil companies are pumping into production. Even China is building a pipe line from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific coast.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineRiddlePilot215 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 318 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 6 months 4 days ago) and read 3904 times:
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If anything what will kill Civil Aviation...General Aviation in specific, won't be the rapidly approaching petrol shortage. It'll more or less be politics that will be the stake in the heart.


God is good, all the time. All the time, God is good.
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6195 posts, RR: 34
Reply 19, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 3873 times:

Quoting RiddlePilot215 (Reply 18):
...won't be the rapidly approaching petrol shortage

FYI, Brazil already has a piston aircraft that runs on ethanol made from sugar cane.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineOli80 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2006, 685 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 3855 times:

It is impossible to predict whether oil will destroy aviation (in my opinion). Who knows whether they will invent some sort of hybrid plane (like the Toyota Prius) that uses jet fuel for take off but cruises on batteries. Sounds silly now, but they once thought that the Earth was flat....

And as far as oil reserves go, yes, there are still reserves. But putting that aside, think about consumption. How many people live in China who don't own cars now, or maybe only own one? This figure is going to rise dramatically in the near future, and so will the demand for Oil. Look at the pipeline that has been agreed between Russia and China recently, this is just the start. And I haven't even touched on India yet...

Basically, what i'm trying to say is, that we can continue to suck our reserves dry, but our global consumption is going up at the same time. So it's all relative, and impossible to predict.


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6195 posts, RR: 34
Reply 21, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 3847 times:

Quoting Oli80 (Reply 20):
Basically, what i'm trying to say is, that we can continue to suck our reserves dry, but our global consumption is going up at the same time. So it's all relative, and impossible to predict.

We will not suck our reserves dry because way before that point the price of oil will be high enough to make many alternative sources of energy profitable. Again, using Brazil as an example, their ethanol prices at the pump is currently cheaper than petrol (and that is without any government subsidies).

You may be interested in checking out this web site that is trying to pressure auto manufacturers to build plug-in hybrids. With existing technology it would be possible to get 100+ miles per gallon. They have already built one based on the Toyota Prius.

http://www.calcars.org/



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineOli80 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2006, 685 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 3840 times:

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 21):
We will not suck our reserves dry because way before that point the price of oil will be high enough to make many alternative sources of energy profitable. Again, using Brazil as an example, their ethanol prices at the pump is currently cheaper than petrol (and that is without any government subsidies).

I didn't really mean it literally, more as a figure of speech. And yes, you are correct, there will be cheaper alternatives before we get anywhere near low-ish levels.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 21):
You may be interested in checking out this web site that is trying to pressure auto manufacturers to build plug-in hybrids. With existing technology it would be possible to get 100+ miles per gallon. They have already built one based on the Toyota Prius.

I definitely think that electric cars are a good idea. I haven't really got time to look at the page you selected (as i'm at work), and so consequently may look like a tool now, but, the only problem I see (and this is where i'm probably totally wrong) with 'plug-in' cars is that they are just shifting the problem to the generators. I don't know how much energy they consume at the wall, but i'm guessing that it's a fair bit.

I don't know the statistics, but I heard that a lot of pressure was put on power stations in the UK at half time during world cup football games in England, as everyone went to switch their kettle's on. So what it going to be like when everyone gets home from work at 17.00 and plugs their car in? Again, I stress, I could be way off here.


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6195 posts, RR: 34
Reply 23, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 3825 times:

Quoting Oli80 (Reply 22):
the only problem I see (and this is where i'm probably totally wrong) with 'plug-in' cars is that they are just shifting the problem to the generators.

When you do have a chance to check it out, the web site addresses that issue.

Quoting Oli80 (Reply 22):
So what it going to be like when everyone gets home from work at 17.00 and plugs their car in? Again, I stress, I could be way off here.

No problem. For example, with 100+ miles/gallon you would not need to "fill-up" every night as the daily commuter driving average is 20-30 miles.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 24, posted (8 years 6 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 3813 times:

In the past, transportation did not come to a halt just because there was less fuel or technology; it evolved. From wood to coal to oil. From horse-drawn to stream-piston to gas-piston to turbojets. Just because we have been so used to oil-based transportation does not mean the future of it is in doubt.

We can change:
  • how we use the fuel

  • fuel source

  • engine system


  • For modern engines in ships and cars and airplanes; we have been spending R&D on the the first option like crazy -- its cheaper afterall. The latter two cost more from an infrastructure point of view (maintenance, training, environmental, where, when, who, etc). All the benifits are realized long-term, not short like a few decades. But they will postpone the inevitable. Question is, "Are we willing to take the risk to wait o long for the ROI?" That is really why nothing big is going on.



    The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
    25 Glareskin : Even if we reach the point that the natural oil sources are used there will be some alternatives. I'm no petrochemical expert but Diesel (gasoline) is
    26 Art : I don't think aviation is in decline. I do think that there are some shocks coming up: really expensive fuel, carbon taxes on fuel or emissions come
    27 Sbworcs : The person you mentioned as saying there is 480 years of oil left was quoting source. Whilst i respect that you have a difference of opinion on this
    28 Post contains images Glareskin : In fact any airline that going to make pasta has a bad future prospect.... But your assessment is very good. LH is woed for it's gas-guzzling A340 fl
    29 Gr8Circle : Uhhh.. where did you get this one....are you suggesting that in the 70's all other countries were using bullock carts? You're waaaaayyy off the mark
    30 Cedarjet : Yes, that's what I'm saying. India, China, Africa, most of South America and most of the rest of Asia were not at all industrialised. Yes, they were
    31 Art : I don't think you can sell oil at a price of $20 per barrel processing oil shales and tar sands and make a profit. At least not with today's technolo
    32 Gr8Circle : Opps, looks like you need help....from your comments it seems obvious that you're a typical 'head in the sand' westerner who knows nothing much about
    33 Tornado82 : Yeah, sure they have. How many planes has Emirates ordered lately? How big of an airport are they building? UAE geared their economy for THEIR oil to
    34 Post contains links Planemaker : That is not correct. Oil sands costs are currently running at $15 a barrel with "yesterday's technology" and is dropping as newer technologies and ec
    35 Art : Thanks for the correction. And the links.
    36 Cedarjet : Oh man. I don't know why I feel the need to justify myself after such a nasty post but Mr "Gr8Circle" (if that is your real name), I clock up way ove
    37 Peterinlisbon : Although it might now be profitable to extract shale oil, another issue is capacity. When you look at charts of where oil is produced, Canada doesn't
    38 Tornado82 : Then why does the US have farm subsidies, which in effect are paying farmers to NOT farm their land, because of excess farm capacity diluting the com
    39 Cedarjet : Tornado82 is absolutely right, although the Yanks have completely decimated their public transport networks (literally, bought by car companies and sh
    40 Gr8Circle : You forget entirely, that the topic of the thread was about oil consumption and you ended up trying to say that if a country is not industrialised it
    41 Post contains images Gr8Circle : And I assume that 'Cedarjet' IS your real name Come on, 95% of members on this forum have assumed names.....
    42 Post contains links B2707SST : Not correct. In 2004, Canada was the 8th largest oil producer in the world, running just behind Norway and China and ahead of Venezuela and Kuwait. h
    43 Planemaker : Why did you say, "when you look at the charts" when you obviously didn't even bother to? If some one wants to say that we are running out of energy,
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