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Roughly How Many 748s Does Boeing Expect To Sell?  
User currently offlineAviationAddict From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 630 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 5580 times:
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Does Boeing expect there to be a good market for the 747-8? So far it seems like most of the potential customers are opting for 787/777s or 330/340/350/380s. Furthermore, it would appear that the passenger version could potentially be outsold by the freighter (which I suppose doesn't really make a difference, Boeing just wants to sell units, and what do they care what they are used for). Will more orders pour in once customers have actually seen a mock-up or a testbed of the model? I know many airlines don't like to commit to orders until they've actually seen the model fly. Maybe I'm just getting too anxious, it might very well be too early to write the model off, but I'd hate to see the 747 end it's mighty life with a dismal sales display.

13 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 5544 times:

Boeing has sold 2 747's (as UFO's) this year, 48 in 2005, 10 in 2004, and 4 in 2003, and 59 in 2000 to 2002. In total 123 since 1/1/2000 or about 20 per year. Boeing didn't do the 748 without a lot of forecasting to be sure they reach the break even number of frames.

My guess is that the 748 will sell 20 to 30 per year, not stellar but at an estimated $200M a pop that is $ 4 to $ 6 B per year. In 2005 the total commercial airplanes division did about $ 23 B or 15%.

Sometime in 10 to 15 years the orders will dry up totally and it will be time to do the Y3 replacement.


User currently offlineAviationAddict From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 630 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5499 times:
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Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 1):
748 will sell 20 to 30 per year

That's not so bad, at least it's enough to keep the legacy going! I'll be eager to see what Boeing replaces the 747 with.


User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2474 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5437 times:

Per this Aviation Week article...

http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/new...awst_story.jsp?id=news/11215p2.xml

"In contrast with Airbus's predicted market, Boeing foresees sales of only 900 aircraft carrying 450 passengers or more, and expects to capture half those sales with the 747-8. Randy J. Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes' director of marketing and product analysis, expects 60% of BCA's 747-8 sales to come in passenger aircraft, the remaining 40% from freighters."

This implies they expect to sell about 450 airframes. While I doubt they'll get 50% of this market, it's probably bigger than their forecast (between theirs and Airbus's) so they might sell that many over 15-20 years. Not bad for a 4th generation derivative. It's notable that Boeing's projected freighter percentile is a lot higher than Airbus's 25% but not surprising, its original optimization for freight carriage is likely a main factor keeping the 747 reasonably competitive despite the certain A380 dominance in this segment. The adoption of the new fuel-efficient 787 engines and the extensive wing mods largely rejuvenate this vintage design and should keep it from being just an also-ran in sales.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 4, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5428 times:

I've read from both Boeing and General Electric that they intend to sell approximately 300 748 frames....I think its for both the freighter and pax version...


"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineNitrohelper From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 470 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5393 times:

If we use 2020, 20 x 15=300 for an end of the "run" , would the Y3 be EIS before 2020?
Will there be one more 747 update (-9?) after few years of real 380 operating costs are known, maybe 2012 ? Is the Y3 in design by 2010 ?  scratchchin 


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21582 posts, RR: 59
Reply 6, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5266 times:

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 3):
This implies they expect to sell about 450 airframes.

that's 450 passenger jets of 450 seats or more by 2025, not 450 748i aircraft. One would assume that the Y3 model would come in a 480 seat version and come into the market around 2018-19, which would mean that they would expect some of those 450 to be Y3, probably OVER 1/2 of them in that 7 year period, as demand for larger jets is seen to escalate after 2015.

So, just going by projections, you'd assume that B is expecting 200 or so sales of 748i over 10 years or so, or 20 per year, as others have estimated.

As for F versions, that is different. Maybe up to 100 new frames in that time, as well as conversions of PAX versions at a later date, 777F, more 744F conversions, etc. But nothing says that a Y3F is going to be available right away. It took 12 years for the 772, right? One can assume that the Y3 would remain a pax only model for some time, while 748F and 777F freighters are still built for a while as needed.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9210 posts, RR: 15
Reply 7, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5134 times:

As many as possible of course......

User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 8, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5096 times:

Quoting AviationAddict (Thread starter):
So far it seems like most of the potential customers are opting for ... 380s.

Huh? Since the Boeing launched the B747-8, they have sold several JumboJets whereas Airbus haven't sold any WhaleJets. Even before the launch of the B747-8, Boeing sold more B747-400s last year than Airbus sold WhaleJets.


User currently offlineJet-lagged From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 877 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5020 times:

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 5):
If we use 2020, 20 x 15=300 for an end of the "run" , would the Y3 be EIS before 2020?
Will there be one more 747 update (-9?) after few years of real 380 operating costs are known, maybe 2012 ? Is the Y3 in design by 2010 ?

Interesting musings. Although the Jumbo got a new lease on life with the -8, eventually it will come to an end. Even the days of the ubiquitous 737 now seem numbered with the increased buzz for Y1.

The 707, 727, DC10/MD11, 757, and soon the 767 (and A300?) yes all pass into the sunset. But the 747? Somehow it doesn't seem right. It didn't seem possible.

Let's enjoy the -8 while it is here, the last hurrah of the most noble jet to ever have plowed the skies.


User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 5220 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5000 times:

Quoting AviationAddict (Thread starter):
I know many airlines don't like to commit to orders until they've actually seen the model fly.

The precise detail of what is going to be offered to airlines has not been finalised. This will not happen until the 4th Qrt of 2006.
Thus it is not surprising that there are no orders since there is nothing to order until airlines know what they are ordering.


User currently offlineCruiser From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1001 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4954 times:

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 1):
In 2005 the total commercial airplanes division did about $ 23 B or 15%.

Not quite. BCA did approximately $117B and Airbus did about $96B.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060117/france_airbus.html?.v=6



Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3723 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4943 times:

I read in yesterdays Bangkok Post a quote by a Boeing official that they would be happy to sell 300 units over the life of the plane and that is why they believe Airbus claims of a market for 1,200 planes of that size to be a serious mistake.

User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4878 times:

Quoting Cruiser (Reply 11):
Not quite. BCA did approximately $117B and Airbus did about $96B.

These are only the orders. The turnover is mostly made with the delivery.


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