StudentFlyer From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 688 posts, RR: 4 Reply 2, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3739 times:
I would assume that once the population of both the A380 and (hopefully) B748 reaches at least the same amount of aircraft as the B744s, then it may be that the 744s will be slowly phased out. IIRC, SQ and LH has already phased out a couple of its older 744s, and they are currently being converted to Cargo variant (PTC) in China
Are you talking about Passenger version, or both Passenger and Cargo? Because if cargo is included, then the 744s would certainly be in the market for a long time, as CX recently bought more second-hand 744 PTCs.
IMHO, the 777 family isn't a direct replacement for any 747s in terms of size, as they are in the 300-seat region, as compared to 400-seat region in a 747 (based on 3-class), so a 748 would probably be the direct replacement for a 744, with the A380 setting a new standard of class, in which we see that (hopefully) someday it will eventually take over the market share of the 747s as they are phased out.
I hope that helps a bit, and someone please correct me if i'm wrong.
B747-4U3 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2002, 983 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3601 times:
I think we will see regular 744 services until at least 2015, with reduced 744 services until 2020, perhaps longer.
Many airlines such as QF and CI have relatively new 744s which will be operated for a long time to come. Others such as BA, UA and LH have large 744 fleets that will probably take a long time to replace.
Many 742s were in regular passenger service in their early 30s so I don't see why the 744 cannot be operated for that long (which would take even the oldest 744s to 2020).
NA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 9705 posts, RR: 10 Reply 4, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3553 times:
The 747-400 has a very long production span. While the early ones slowly get old by 2010, others are still young aircraft by then. Also the 747 has a relatively long life, longer than the average 767 or A300 for example. Most 747s survive their 25th birthday, many even see their 30th birthday, while many 20-22 year old 767s get the axe these days.
I expect that until 2015 most majors who operate 744s now will still do so. Late built 744s will be retired from its first owners fleet 2015-2020. By then a few hundred new 747-8Is will be gracing the skies. I guess though by then we will see a very different scenario that will change aircraft age as we judge it now. Very high fuelprices will make even newer types suddenly obsolete, as fuel consuption will be more important when seen against aquisition costs as today. I expect that todays and near future aircraft types will enjoy shorter service lifes harmed by the fuel price. The leap forward initiated by the 787 will make a 773ER look like a fuel guzzler by 2020, and I wouldn´t be surprised if many of these currently very efficient birds might not survive their 20th year.
Quoting Keesje (Reply 1): In 5-10 years many 744 pax will reach 20 years age. They will most likely be replaced by a mix of the superior 777-300ER, 787 and 747-8i
Certainly more A380s will replace 744s than 787 will be able to do.
DualQual From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 642 posts, RR: 1 Reply 9, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3062 times:
While age of an aircraft is/can be an issue, another major consideration towards retirement is the cycles on an airframe. As longhaul aircraft the 744s (or long range Airbi) don't see the number of daily cycles that shorter legged aircraft (737/757/Baby Airbi) see. The up and downs and subsequent pressurezation cycles play a major role in the fatiguing of the airframe. I think the 744s have longer lifespan in them than 5-10 more years. While that doesn't preclude airlines from phasing them out I don't think it is economically justifiable unless you have a small fleet that you are dumping for something else.
Nitrohelper From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 464 posts, RR: 5 Reply 10, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2986 times:
Nice reply, I tend to agree with your numbers, look back 15 years ,when was the 380
mock-up built? I wonder what engines will be available in 2020? , thrust & fuel burn??
Would you re-engine a 20 year old (2000 build) to get another 10 years ?
I guess we have to wait for two or three years of 380 flight data to plan
the last 747P to the sand. Kalitta will have many future 747 freighters.
CRGsFuture From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 536 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2826 times:
Honestly my point will reiterate what everyone said, 2020 will be the last year we shall see the 744's and depending on the airline it will be the 748i or A388 that will replace the 744. I think the idea is that LH and SQ will evenly split between Airbus and Boeing, while AF and BA will most likely go all 748i due to there heavy reliability in them. Question is what airline will go from Boeing to Airbus in this race and my choice is honestly KL due to there heavy capacity and the fact of where they go and that having a centralized hub like AMS could route everything through it.
That's where the real battle will be, who will convert to either side after being historicaly a Boeing or Airbus fleet.
Flying you to your destination; your girlfriend to her dreams.
Wdleiser From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 958 posts, RR: 4 Reply 13, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2760 times:
787's will not replace any 744's and lets get that straight. Thats like saying the 767 will replace 744's. 777-300ER's, 748's and A380's and.... if Airbus fixes the A346 up, the A346 will all be the 744 replacement aircrafts.
EK413 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 3981 posts, RR: 4 Reply 23, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2031 times:
QF postponed its decision on a B743-B744 replacement....
I believe QF will be making an announcement in the next few months regarding which aircraft is to replace the B743 - B744 fleet...
Will be interesting to see if Qantas remains with Quads (A345-A346) or goes for the Twins (B772LR-B773ER)....
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