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DL's Future At IST?  
User currently offlineGokmengs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1123 posts, RR: 2
Posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3094 times:

This particular route for DL is my bi-weekly flight and I have been following news and updates about this route, so here are my questions?
Confirmed by many DL insiders JFK-IST is one of the most profitable route for DL however; There was a lot of rumor before the DL intl expansion news that ATH and IST would both get flights from ATL. Although ATL-ATH has been announced IST wasn't picked. Anybody knows why?
Usually DL has daily JFK-IST for summer season and 3X or 4X weekly for winter season, I spoke to DL execs in IST and they were saying they codeshare so many pax to AF on non DL days of the week and speculating that the route will go daily year round. Can anybody confirm this?
In general are we goin to hear any news updates to this route like extra frequency, equipment change(highly unlikely with the lack of 777's) etc.?
Having flown the route both summer and winter very often I always find it to be 80% full if not packed, and I know DL carries lots of cargo on this route everytime they fly it.
Your opinions and insight are appreciated


Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3020 times:

Quoting Gokmengs (Thread starter):
In general are we goin to hear any news updates to this route like extra frequency, equipment change(highly unlikely with the lack of 777's) etc.?

Normally not. If a flight sees a few weekly additional frequencies or an equipment upgrade, the only way to find it out is by looking up DL's timetables. E.g. several Euro destinations that aren't daily during winter, like ATH, NCE or VCE, have seen more weekly frequencies in recent winters than in previous winters, but that goes on more or less unnoticed.

Quoting Gokmengs (Thread starter):
There was a lot of rumor before the DL intl expansion news that ATH and IST would both get flights from ATL. Although ATL-ATH has been announced IST wasn't picked. Anybody knows why?

No real idea why it wasn't announced, perhaps lack of enough aircraft, though I can very well imagine that next summer at latest, DL will be relaunching ATL-IST, as I doubt ATL-EDI will see a second summer.
And really, given Delta's expansion spree at ATL, IST would normally be a logical addition.


User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4898 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 2991 times:
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I'm not sure if it's significant but it is interesting to note that JFK-IST has been the one route that has not had its frequencies built back up so far this spring. For example, JFK-ATH is back to daily effective March 1 as is JFK-NCE (though the latter goes back down to 5X weekly in April, before coming back in May as daily); both of these were down to 3-4X during the winter just like JFK-IST. However, JFK-IST is still 3X weekly in March and in April and only comes back to daily on April 30.

User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2970 times:

ATLIST would be a haul, possibly beyond the range of DL’s 767s, although plenty of people on this board don’t hesitate to say what particular carriers are capable of doing with their aircraft despite the fact that no carrier has identically configured aircraft based on furnishings or performance. In practicality, it is too far because it would be over 12 hours. The FAA requires 2 sets of pilots on a 2 man cockpit aircraft on flights over 12 hrs. DL’s pilot agreement (along w/ many of the US carriers) requires that there be lie flat accommodations for the relief pilots which DL’s 767s do not have. ATHATL can probably not be completed in 11 hrs and 59 minutes while flying at typical cruise speeds meaning DL will either have to ask the pilots to fly faster or have to negotiate an exception to the 12 hr rule for that flight.

User currently offlineTurkishSky From Turkey, joined Mar 2004, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2967 times:

DL did fly B767s on this route before...


Flown 4I 9U AA AB AF AZ BA BD BR CA CU CX EI FR HV JK JP JU KK KL KM LH LX MA ME MS NG OA OK QR OS RJ RO SA SK SQ SR SU
User currently offlineGokmengs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1123 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2931 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 1):
No real idea why it wasn't announced, perhaps lack of enough aircraft, though I can very well imagine that next summer at latest, DL will be relaunching ATL-IST, as I doubt ATL-EDI will see a second summer.
And really, given Delta's expansion spree at ATL, IST would normally be a logical addition.

I agree DAL! Many months ago it was confirmed by insiders that the IST route was one of the cash cows for DL so I really was expecting ATL-IST or if that was a no go daily JFK-IST. I'm more surprised about the fact that the flight didn't go daily actually.I'm a DL PMM and have always seen the flight with high loads and packed J class.
Btw welcome to my RU list!

Quoting Panamair (Reply 2):
I'm not sure if it's significant but it is interesting to note that JFK-IST has been the one route that has not had its frequencies built back up so far this spring. For example, JFK-ATH is back to daily effective March 1 as is JFK-NCE (though the latter goes back down to 5X weekly in April, before coming back in May as daily); both of these were down to 3-4X during the winter just like JFK-IST. However, JFK-IST is still 3X weekly in March and in April and only comes back to daily on April 30.

That is indeed interesting. Also one has to note that there were reports of Atlas Jet looking for widebodies for IST to US in Turkish newspapers. I wonder if they will pick JFK or somewhere that is not currently served by DL or TK? That will be interesting to see when and if Atlas Jet will try the US market

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 3):
ATLIST would be a haul, possibly beyond the range of DL�s 767s, although plenty of people on this board don�t hesitate to say what particular carriers are capable of doing with their aircraft despite the fact that no carrier has identically configured aircraft based on furnishings or performance. In practicality, it is too far because it would be over 12 hours. The FAA requires 2 sets of pilots on a 2 man cockpit aircraft on flights over 12 hrs. DL�s pilot agreement (along w/ many of the US carriers) requires that there be lie flat accommodations for the relief pilots which DL�s 767s do not have. ATHATL can probably not be completed in 11 hrs and 59 minutes while flying at typical cruise speeds meaning DL will either have to ask the pilots to fly faster or have to negotiate an exception to the 12 hr rule for that flight.

Good point but I really doubt it would be a problem if they are doing ATL-ATH with no problems.

Quoting TurkishSky (Reply 4):
DL did fly B767s on this route before...

I think you are wrong I'm positive they used the three holers for the route.



Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
User currently offlineGokmengs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1123 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2746 times:

Quoting Panamair (Reply 2):
However, JFK-IST is still 3X weekly in March and in April and only comes back to daily on April 30.

Its really weird if you check their timetable JFK-IST goes from 3X to 4x weekly and then goes back to 3X weekly then may 1st it goes to daily. Also there are time changes back and forth(like 30 mins or so) on the departure time on IST-JFK what is the reason for that, does anybody know?



Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
User currently offlineBelizexp From Belize, joined Dec 2005, 373 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2730 times:

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 5):
I think you are wrong I'm positive they used the three holers for the route.

I think your right too I do remember the MD11 doing IST and ATH in the past from ATL.



Belize my home sweet home...
User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25148 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2715 times:

Selamlar Gokmengs,

Part of DL decision not to expand the IST schedule until later in the year I believe had to do with the continued work and closure of runway 36R/18L.
The 763s have been taking performance hits as a result often having to leave cargo behind, and even on at least one occasion making an enroute fuel stop in the last few weeks.
So seemingly, as the flights revenue picture has changed, it was probably prudent not to operate a full daily schedule and lose money each day, but instead operate the reduced schedule to minimise losses.

Lastly, I would not term the JFK-IST flight parse as a "cash cow". From having seen actual revenue reports from 2004 back, the route does make a positive contribution, however is far from a gold mine, suffering from seasonal demand imbalance and marginal yields during the winters.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4424 posts, RR: 12
Reply 9, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 2698 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
at least one occasion making an enroute fuel stop in the last few weeks.

How could they explain this to the customers? I mean, is this done on the day of the flight, telling the pax that there will be a fuel stop?


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32736 posts, RR: 72
Reply 10, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 2685 times:

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 5):

That is indeed interesting. Also one has to note that there were reports of Atlas Jet looking for widebodies for IST to US in Turkish newspapers. I wonder if they will pick JFK or somewhere that is not currently served by DL or TK? That will be interesting to see when and if Atlas Jet will try the US market

Atlasjet has been looking at serving MIA-IST, which is a busy route but with poor yields since it is mainly VFR and tourists, more suited for a holiday airline Atlasjet than it was for Turkish.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 3):
ATLIST would be a haul, possibly beyond the range of DL�s 767s,

Doubt it. El Al will be flying their 763s on MIA-TLV this summer (in addition to 762s) and ATL-IST is barely longer than ATL-ATH.



a.
User currently offlineGokmengs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1123 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2503 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
Part of DL decision not to expand the IST schedule until later in the year I believe had to do with the continued work and closure of runway 36R/18L.

Hi Laxintl! Long time no see.
Its funny every negative thing that has to do with IST points to one incompetent agency that is DHMI.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
The 763s have been taking performance hits as a result often having to leave cargo behind, and even on at least one occasion making an enroute fuel stop in the last few weeks.
So seemingly, as the flights revenue picture has changed, it was probably prudent not to operate a full daily schedule and lose money each day, but instead operate the reduced schedule to minimise losses.

You think with the runway upgrades complete and allowing for more cargo on board would DL consider daily year round or ATL-IST at some point?

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
Lastly, I would not term the JFK-IST flight parse as a "cash cow". From having seen actual revenue reports from 2004 back, the route does make a positive contribution, however is far from a gold mine, suffering from seasonal demand imbalance and marginal yields during the winters.

If you say it I believe it. However back in the day I started a thread for the most profitable DL Intl Flights thread and DL was up there confirmed by many.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 9):
How could they explain this to the customers? I mean, is this done on the day of the flight, telling the pax that there will be a fuel stop?

Well these things happen on transcon's in US a lot and its more DHMI's fault then DL's. If I was DL I would bitch like there is no tomorrow to Turkish Authorities. Those stop's cost a lot of money.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
Atlasjet has been looking at serving MIA-IST, which is a busy route but with poor yields since it is mainly VFR and tourists, more suited for a holiday airline Atlasjet than it was for Turkish.

Wow! I'd be surprised if they pick MIA over IAD. I don't know whats TK current situation with IAD currently but that route will be a money maker and everyone knows it. TK could have started but they were short of A/C's now that they have the A330's I guess they are only waiting for ETOPS certification.



Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32736 posts, RR: 72
Reply 12, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2473 times:

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 11):
Wow! I'd be surprised if they pick MIA over IAD. I don't know whats TK current situation with IAD currently but that route will be a money maker and everyone knows it.

What would be surprising? Atlasjet is a holiday airline. Washington-Dulles offers them nothing. Miami is a huge holiday destination for Turks and is home to America's third largest Turkish community, and Atlasjet could easily fill 1-2x weekly service to the city profitably. They aren't going for higher yielding traffic from Dulles that can't be sold through vacation packages, that is what Turkish is for. That being said, Atlasjet has said they will be flying to Miami since 2002, originally the plan was with a 757 via Iceland, so I won't believe it until I see it.



a.
User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4424 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2469 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 12):
Atlasjet could easily fill 1-2x weekly service to the city profitably.

What kind of equipment would they use?
Where would they fly the rest of the week?
MIA will be a hit in winter months, what about in summers?


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32736 posts, RR: 72
Reply 14, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2463 times:

Quoting TK787 (Reply 13):
What kind of equipment would they use?
Where would they fly the rest of the week?
MIA will be a hit in winter months, what about in summers?

I really have no idea, because I have not heard anything about Atlasjet in a while, other than the fact that they recently re-applied with DOT to keep their dormant Miami-Turkey route authority. MIA can be successful year-round, because during the summer months they can get Miami-originating traffic and cruise traffic to Istanbul.



a.
User currently offlineEmrecan From Turkey, joined Feb 2000, 940 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2457 times:

MAH4546:

Atlasjet is planning to fly JFK by A340. But this is their target for end of 2007 or early 2008.
This info comes from their CEO, who had a speech on TV 2 weeks ago.(BTW their CEO knows the business very well)


User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4424 posts, RR: 12
Reply 16, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2457 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
MIA can be successful year-round, because during the summer months they can get Miami-originating traffic and cruise traffic to Istanbul.

That makes sense. As for Atlas, I think they have their hands full with the summer season coming and the competition is heating up. They have CRJ's and 319s coming, I don't think they would want yet another aircraft type to serve MIA. Time will tell but I think they will sit on this for a while.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2399 times:

MAH,
DL is not LY and doesn't fly the 762ER. Each Carrier has different operating procedures and DL is known to be conservative. As I mentioned earlier there are labor reasons if nothing else that prevent DL from flying a 12+ hr flight. ATHATL may be in the schedule but there is no assurance that DL can fly it in the 12 hrs allotted. If they can't, they've got another issue to resolve with their pilots. Even when it was flown as a 777 or MD11, DL blocked it at 12 hrs.


User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4424 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2386 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 3):
DL will either have to ask the pilots to fly faster

WorldTraveler,
The 12 hour rule with DL make sense, thanks for that info. About asking the pilots to fly faster, were you being sarcastic or do you see that happening? Is there any other routes DL might have the same problem of flying close to 12 hours?
Thank you.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2376 times:

I'm not being sarcastic. Planes are built to cruise at a specific speed. ATH-ATL is pushing the 12 hr window on a 767.

User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4424 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2364 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
I'm not being sarcastic. Planes are built to cruise at a specific speed. ATH-ATL is pushing the 12 hr window on a 767.

WorldTraveler,
I am just trying to understand. So DL will tell their pilots to fly faster to be just under 12 hours, and take the penalty on the fuel?
Thanks.


User currently offlineFiriko From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2310 times:

Quoting Gokmengs (Thread starter):
Many months ago it was confirmed by insiders that the IST route was one of the cash cows for DL

OPfcourse it will be a cash cow. Here is why:
if you book with Delta in their town office let's say 2 months in advance they convert the total price to Turkish Lira and charge it on your credit card and you think that's it but I have noticed a few times that if the exchage rate goes up or down they cancel the origional transaction and charge you again on the day you flight is due with the new exchange rate. Passangers end up paying more and get punished for booking early.


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25148 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2299 times:

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 11):
runway upgrades complete and allowing for more cargo on board would DL consider daily year round or ATL-IST at some point?

Once 36R/18L reopens there will be nothing different about it then just having been resurfaced. For the additional payload performance would help is they were going to add about 2,000ft.

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 11):
thread for the most profitable DL Intl Flights thread and DL was up there confirmed by many.

Indeed IST does not do too bad in the greater scheme of things.
However for instance in 2004 on a stand alone basis the route only had positive results only 2 out of 4 quarters, while DL has a few other Atlantic routes that managed to produce profits 3 out of 4 quarters.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 12):
America's third largest Turkish community

According to Turkish government records, the breakdown of top Turkish population centers in the United States as of 2003. (Basically based on Consulate passport records)

1.NY/NJ-27272
2.Los Angeles-9407
3.D.C./Baltimore-5517
4.San Francisco-4031
5.Boston-3525
6.Miami-3131
7.Chicago-3083
8.Philadelphia-2237
9.Atlanta-1610
10.Dallas-1560
11.Detroit-1532
12.Houston-1383

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
Atlasjet has been looking at serving MIA-IST,

Was.. Plans were to operate charter services for its former parent-German Oger Tours via Germany. However was unable to get Germany-US traffic rights due objection by several European carriers.

Now in the process of securing widebody aircraft for scheduled service routes to Asia and the US.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2221 times:

those are pretty small population centers to expect an airline to operate double daily service to a country even for only part of the year.

Although I do not know DL's intentions, aircraft can be flown faster than economical cruise at a fuel cost. Airlines used to do it often to make up time after delays but rarely do it now. Increasing cruising speed by just 20-30 MPH could cut 30 minutes off the flight time and get this flight in under 12 hours.

Firiko,
just about every country requires that services sold inside their country be sold in the local currency. I highly doubt your assertion that DL cancels reservations and rebooks in order to float currency. If true, you should forward to the Turkish transportation regulatory authorities. They would not tolerate such activity which is why I'm certain DL is not doing. Airlines do sometimes engage in currency hedging activity to mitigate currency changes but it usually only happens in their largest foreign countries (which Turkey is not for DL) and it doesn't involve passenger revenue. Hedging is done with corporate funds and DL probably cannot do currency hedging because of being in bankruptcy, although they have rec'd approval to hedge for fuel while in bankruptcy.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32736 posts, RR: 72
Reply 24, posted (8 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2192 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 22):
According to Turkish government records, the breakdown of top Turkish population centers in the United States as of 2003. (Basically based on Consulate passport records)

1.NY/NJ-27272
2.Los Angeles-9407
3.D.C./Baltimore-5517
4.San Francisco-4031
5.Boston-3525
6.Miami-3131
7.Chicago-3083
8.Philadelphia-2237
9.Atlanta-1610
10.Dallas-1560
11.Detroit-1532
12.Houston-1383

Unfortunately, those really aren't the most reliable ways to count any immigrant population centeres, and also don't take into account seasonal populations, as Miami's Turkish population grows heavily during the winter months as they invade Sunny Isles Beach.

The best source is US Census data, but it is extremely difficult to sort through. The last I remember, it was New York City, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, DC as the five largest. All those numbers seem far too low, especially Chicago.

[Edited 2006-03-16 02:48:26]


a.
25 Post contains images Bahadir : Gokmen, I can see your life being a living hell by wrong choices you make : - cimcomcom fan - Delta PMM Seriously though, when Atlas got their 757s th
26 CRGsFuture : Guys a question, seeing where talking about JFK-IST, does TK go daily with this one or do they reduce service during the winter too? And do there load
27 TK787 : TK operates flight number 1, IST-JFK year around daily, and this might affect the loads of DL in the winter so they go 4x weekly.
28 CRGsFuture : Thanks TK. I was thinking that, especially the TK product on long haul is a little better somebody was telling me. Hopefully I'll get to JFK to see th
29 Laxintl : I actually do have tons of such US Census data also, however the consular data is more suited as it more appropriately shows the actual Turkish citiz
30 WorldTraveler : Almost all European service is pulled down in the winter when demand between the US and Europe is lower for all types of passengers.
31 Amirs : I dont think its going to happen, it seems the 763 wont have the range - and they will prefer to leave them on TLV - YYZ/LAX route.
32 TK787 : TK has only two A332s and your chance of seeing them in JFK is close to none, since they fly mainly the Beijing route, and once in a while some Europ
33 Post contains images Gokmengs : I wouldn't label them "holiday airline" that may be true for past years but Atlas is positioning themselves to be the LCC of choice in Turkey with no
34 MAH4546 : Consul data is usually not relaible because it only shows the number of people reigestered with the consulate. Depending on the country, that number
35 Laxintl : No, I was just saying that for performance wise, it would help if it was extended by 2000 or so feet. MAH, I guess we agree to disagree, however the
36 B752OS : Whenever the populations of people from other countries comes up, MAH always comes in and says how Miami has one of the largest, whether it be Irish,
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