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Providence Takes A Hit  
User currently offlineLowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 1912 times:

February passenger levels hit a 5 year low for February. US Airways totals are up 4000 and SWA still controls 52% of the traffic. Although they weren't singled out, I have to believe SWA is the big loser here. Jetblue's BOS station is certainly stealing market share.

This all doesn't portend well for Manchester's future. Jetblue is certainly hurting them in BOS, and now with Portland opening, this can't be encouraging for the future.

http://www.pbn.com/contentmgr/showdetails.php/id/120005

15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4646 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1847 times:

Quoting Lowecur (Thread starter):
I have to believe SWA is the big loser here

Actually its quite the opposite.... Southwest was up over 16,000 passengers without adding 1 additional seat! Thats quite an impressive jump in load factor.

Traffic was down, but its not anyhting that wasnt expected, the rest of the year should be like this too. MHT and BDL have also posted declines for January and will likely post more declines during most months this year as well. If you want to see increases you'll have to wait till 2007.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineGeorgiabill From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 577 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1759 times:
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Yes the regional airports in the northeast may be in rough water, however I tend to think it is a bit premature to predict an implosion. Will JetBlue hurt MHT with their new service from PWM? Well if you listen to the massport cronie managing MHT he see's little or any impact. Personally I think it will have an effect especially giving another option for MHT travelers from southeastern Maine, just as Allegiant's flights from Portsmouth to Florida have created an option. The biggest factors to the decline in passenger numbers from MHT is the decrease of mainline flights and the increase of regional jets. Now I can say the flights had decent passenger numbers, however I cannot address the yields on those flights. But with Delta replacing their MD80'S with regional jets to ATL and CVG have caused some passengers who normally fly from MHT to use BOS again. Same can be said about USAIRWAYS reducing significantly their mainline service from MHT. But the second biggest negative impact on MHT in my opinion is the massport cronie managing the airport. He has done absolutely nothing to bring in new carriers or to work with the existing carriers that already serve MHT. He is in to self promotion, tends to make sure whatever positive happens gets into the media and negative gets forgotten.

User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7511 posts, RR: 24
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1740 times:

Quoting Georgiabill (Reply 2):
Well if you listen to the massport cronie managing MHT he see's little or any impact.



Quoting Georgiabill (Reply 2):
But the second biggest negative impact on MHT in my opinion is the massport cronie managing the airport.

I'll beat ChrisNH to the punch on this reply.

Since MHT is located in New Hampshire, Massport (derived from Massachusetts Port Authority) has no jurisdiction at that airport let alone the entire State of New Hampshire. It also has no jurisdiction over at PVD either. Whoever runs MHT may be a cronie or whatever but it's not Massport who's pulling his strings; that would be a major conflict of interest issue.

Although their website http://www.flymanchester.com isn't too specific on what agency runs the airport; my guess would be either the City of Manchester (those seeking employment at the airport are asked to apply to the city) or the State of New Hampshire.

[Edited 2006-03-16 17:21:30]


"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4646 posts, RR: 11
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1738 times:

Quoting Georgiabill (Reply 2):
Well if you listen to the massport cronie managing MHT



Quoting Georgiabill (Reply 2):
But the second biggest negative impact on MHT in my opinion is the massport cronie managing the airport.

Its not his fault. If the airlines wanted to be in MHT, they'd be there.

In a time when airlines are loosing billions of dollars the LAST place they want to be is places that:

Have smaller catchment areas
Low business demand
Large LCC presence
Large single airline presence

MHT meets al the above criteria, PVD isnt much better but it has a larger catchement area and more business travel.

Bottom line, airliens dont care how convenient the airport is, most times the passenger will deal with it. Ive used BOS and its not as bad as some people make it out to be.

Its just a little down time, every airport goes through it, just gotta get over it. Hopefully WN and NK will provide growth in 2007 then perhaps B6 and FL will enter in the 2008-2010 timeframe and fuel growth then.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineGeorgiabill From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 577 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1710 times:
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I know what massport means. My line comes from the fact that the present airport manager is a former massport employee. I just think in my opinion he is not the right man for the job.

User currently offlineDartland From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 643 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1690 times:
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Part of the BOS issue may be the completion of the Big Dig. Now that most construction is done in downtown Boston, it is MUCH easier to get to the airport.

I am a huge fan of BOS -- except for some traffic back-ups (in the air, I mean), I find it a very easy airport to get in and out of. With JetBlue pushing fares down, I agree that it will not lose out to MHT and PVD, especially now the DL terminal is done and parking and other infrastructure projects are completed.


User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7511 posts, RR: 24
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1664 times:

Quoting Georgiabill (Reply 5):
My line comes from the fact that the present airport manager is a former massport employee.

That would be like a football team trading a player to a rival team only to have the player purposely loose a future game against his former team.

If that is indeed the case here, you're right; the City of Manchester should not have hired him or at least had him sign some sort of legal conflict of interest pact before coming on board.



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlineLowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1657 times:

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 1):
Actually its quite the opposite.... Southwest was up over 16,000 passengers without adding 1 additional seat! Thats quite an impressive jump in load factor.

That's interesting. So the airport is down 24,000 for February over the year before, US Air is up 4,000, and SWA is up 16,000. That's a net loss of 44,000 for other carriers. Care to elaborate on who took the beating?


User currently offlinePVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3411 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1629 times:

Quoting Lowecur (Thread starter):
February passenger levels hit a 5 year low for February

survey says: X

Feb 2003 was 354,521 while Feb 2006 was 372,054 (which was also only 101 passengers less than 2004!).

Quoting Lowecur (Thread starter):
US Airways totals are up 4000

survey says: XX

USAirways and affiliated regionals combined were down 7332 passengers year over year - not sure what the PBN is looking at.

Quoting Lowecur (Thread starter):
SWA still controls 52% of the traffic.

survey says: XXX

52% represents JET flights (no RJs or turboprops). They actually hold 44.25% market share at PVD which is up year over year on flat capacity. As RLPVD stated, they were up almost 17,000 passengers for the month on that same flat capacity - which is outstanding.

Great analytical skills by the PBN...

Quoting Lowecur (Thread starter):
I have to believe SWA is the big loser here. Jetblue's BOS station is certainly stealing market share.

see strike 3 comment above.

Lets look at what really happened:

Of the 24,500+ less February passengers in 2006 versus 2005, DH cost PVD 7179 passengers. NK alone (due to a reduced schedule from aircraft retirements) accounted for over 11,000 more lost passengers. Seeing how NW, DL, AA, US and CO all had less capacity (in some cases well over 20% less capacity), losing only 6000 more passengers was pretty good. The rest just shuffled from one carrier to another. The airport had 15% less capacity and lost only 6% of the traffic.

Having said all that, I'm not happy about the Feb numbers (they could have been a lot worse though) and I'm certainly not feeling good about the rest of the year at all. I think PVD will end up 5-7% below last years totals (a record year mind you). B6 will have an effect on our numbers somewhat to certain markets, but it's the AA, NK, and DL cut-backs that are really going to drive the numbers down until we can get some additional/new service...


User currently offlinePVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3411 posts, RR: 17
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1599 times:

Quoting Georgiabill (Reply 2):
But the second biggest negative impact on MHT in my opinion is the massport cronie managing the airport. He has done absolutely nothing to bring in new carriers or to work with the existing carriers that already serve MHT. He is in to self promotion, tends to make sure whatever positive happens gets into the media and negative gets forgotten.

I've met him more than once - all I can say to you is that you're statement is quite overblown. He's aggressive in trying to get more service - which is more than what many other airports are/have.

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 3):
my guess would be either the City of Manchester

Correct - they are funded through city coffers...


User currently offlinePVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3411 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1572 times:

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 8):
Care to elaborate on who took the beating?

net loss/gain for each carrier (including affiliates) Feb 2006 versus feb 2005:

AC (139)
AA (2627)
CO (492)
DL (9108)
DH (7179)
NW (2711)
WN 16676
NK (11386)
UA (282)
US (7332)

Capacity change (taken from vacation week which saw added capacity):

AC 0
AA (15.26%)
CO (3.63%)
DL (32.68%)
DH (100%)
NW (4.02%)
WN 0
NK (50%)
UA (2.61%)
US (24.09%)


User currently offlineLowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1530 times:

Lots of RJ service will eventually force more passengers either to WN or they will be driving up the turnpike to BOS. It sounds like landing fees and rental space may be going up to cover reduced revenue if trend continues. I'm sure the new runway will be financed with a bond issue, but revenue would have to be increased to pay bondholders. I have to agree with the Mayor that PVD doesn't need flts to Europe or the West Coast, and a new runway doesn't make financial sense unless trend reverses.

NK's retirement of a/c would mean they have reduced capacity fleetwide. I don't follow them all that closely but I know they are adding quite a few Airbus'. Don't know where they flew from PVD, but if it's Florida, then it's possible B6 is having a larger affect on them than any of the other carriers.


User currently offlinePVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3411 posts, RR: 17
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1492 times:

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 12):
I have to agree with the Mayor that PVD doesn't need flts to Europe or the West Coast, and a new runway doesn't make financial sense unless trend reverses.

The expanded runway is AT LEAST 5-7 years away. All terminal space remains rented (except for the ex-DH gate) with certain carriers looking for more.

The mayor, the airport, nor you or I determine the need for these flights - the market and the airlines do...

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 12):
don't follow them all that closely but I know they are adding quite a few Airbus'.

they are retiring 2 MD80s for every new airbus they take dlivery of, and they recently sped up THAT pace...

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 12):
Don't know where they flew from PVD, but if it's Florida, then it's possible B6 is having a larger affect on them than any of the other carriers

NK's LF has been higher than last year - it's the reduced capacity here that is hurting their numbers.


User currently offlineIowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4368 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1482 times:
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FORUM MODERATOR

Not all that surprised WN saw increases considering a lot of airlines downgraded to more RJ's and raised fares. The good thing is at least PVD got a n/s to LAS recently on WN.


Next flights: WN DSM-LAS-PHX, US PHX-SJD. Return: US SJD-PHX, WN PHX-MDW-DSM
User currently offlineLowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1426 times:

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 13):
The mayor, the airport, nor you or I determine the need for these flights - the market and the airlines do...

Don't know what the cost of a new runway is, but I would hazzard a guess close to a billion or more, with cost escalating as time goes by. At this juncture, WN is probably the most viable candidate for coast to coast. The European thing would seem limited at best to 757s or 787s unless a 10,000'+ runway were built. The old addage, "build it and they will come" doesn't make a lot of sense with that kind of a cost, but many things have been done on airport expansions in the past that never made much sense.

Time will tell, but your info is much appreciated.

[Edited 2006-03-16 19:31:31]

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