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EK Pushes For A346 Enhanced Instead Of HGW Variant  
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 14901 times:

Emirates Airline looks set to defer deliveries of its Airbus A340-600s which are due to start by the middle of next year, as it waits for the manufacturer to clarify its plans for an enhanced version of the aircraft.

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...in+place+of+high+gross+weight.html

165 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4696 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 14835 times:
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makes sense, anyone who would take a HGW and not an E version if its available is crazy unless they need the plane right away

User currently offlineGlom From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2815 posts, RR: 10
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 14791 times:

This kind of looks bad for ROI on the HGW.

User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2172 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 14739 times:
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I thought the A346HGW was due for delivery to EK in 2006, not 2007...

Well, from other threads here on A.net, it sounds like EK's fast-paced growth has hit a big bump lately, so perhaps there is not such a massive need for umpteen new aircraft right now anyway... deferring the A346 may be a smart decision. Perhaps they will renegotiate the deal to a joint A346E/A350-order. If the two types will be quite similar technically, they may be a force to be reckoned with...



Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4696 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 14739 times:
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Quoting Glom (Reply 2):
This kind of looks bad for ROI on the HGW.

but wouldn't they have had to do the wing strengthening work anyway for the E version which is where most of the money went?? IIRC the E was a HGW with new engines incorporating Trent 1000 tech and some other minor tweaks.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 14645 times:

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 1):
makes sense, anyone who would take a HGW and not an E version if its available is crazy unless they need the plane right away

From EK's comments in the article it seems they are concerned not so much about capability/performance but the residual value on the HGW airframes. They didn't order the HGW expecting its noncompetitiveness, but they are going to be really concerned if its value drops the second its flown out of Toulouse due to future developments, either a significant update or maybe even a lack of future model sales leading to a small pool of A340NGs that makes it hard to sell the aircraft to other airlines.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9978 posts, RR: 96
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 14507 times:
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Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
From EK's comments in the article it seems they are concerned not so much about capability/performance but the residual value on the HGW airframes.

I reckon you're spot on. The catch-22 for Airbus is the A345/6E prospect itself damaging A345/6HGW sales.

Much as I love the A380, I think this could well turn out to be an issue if/when the A388R/A389 get discussed/launched (if it isn't an issue already....).
A


User currently offlineTifoso From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 440 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 14445 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
From EK's comments in the article it seems they are concerned not so much about capability/performance but the residual value on the HGW airframes.

Well, EK could negotiate a guaranteed sale price on their frames like IB did with Airbus when they purchased their A346s.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 3):
Well, from other threads here on A.net, it sounds like EK's fast-paced growth has hit a big bump lately, so perhaps there is not such a massive need for umpteen new aircraft right now anyway

Makes me wonder whether Emirates is trying to divert attention away from itself by claiming that the order is being deferred because of the inferiority of the A346HGW, as opposed to their not requiring this much capacity.

Also, how is this going to impact the on-going 773ER vs A346 evaluation at Qatar?

[Edited 2006-03-17 13:58:52]

User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8870 posts, RR: 75
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 14300 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 6):
I reckon you're spot on. The catch-22 for Airbus is the A345/6E prospect itself damaging A345/6HGW sales.

In my view they will need to package it, either offer replacement aircraft in a few years, or offer an engine upgrade like the 343x with a trent 1700 to replace the trent 500.

Some current EK 340s have been "back to factory" for upgrades.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 6):
Much as I love the A380, I think this could well turn out to be an issue if/when the A388R/A389 get discussed/launched (if it isn't an issue already....).

Fedex last year was saying it hoped to pick up 200 second hand A380s for cargo conversion. I would see this as part of the life cycle of the aircraft.

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 7):
Makes me wonder whether Emirates is trying to divert attention away from itself by claiming that the order is being deferred because of the inferiority of the A346HGW, as opposed to their not requiring this much capacity.

I think they need the capacity, they are just having problems staffing it. EK has just started their first road show for pilots, similar to what they did/doing for cabin crew.

Pilots and cabin crew a leaving (hearing an average of close to 2 pilots and 10 cabin crew a day), this put higher demand on the ones left, the ones left get overworked, they leave. Understand presently up to 30 flights a day are being cancelled due to lack of staff.

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 7):
Also, how is this going to impact the on-going 773ER vs A346 evaluation at Qatar?

Might means some very cheap interim airframes available at short notice.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 14248 times:

Quoting Zeke (Reply 8):
Fedex last year was saying it hoped to pick up 200 second hand A380s for cargo conversion. I would see this as part of the life cycle of the aircra

No, David Sutton of FedEX said he anticipated 200 A388F/A389Fs in the marketplace (all operators) in twenty years, new builds as well as conversions.


User currently offlineEmirates773ER From Pakistan, joined Jun 2005, 1449 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 14186 times:

Quoting Zeke (Reply 8):
Pilots and cabin crew a leaving (hearing an average of close to 2 pilots and 10 cabin crew a day), this put higher demand on the ones left, the ones left get overworked, they leave. Understand presently up to 30 flights a day are being cancelled due to lack of staff.

Do you have any sources based on the claim you made? Cancelling 30 flights a day is no joke!



The Truth is Out There ---- Face It!!!!!
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined exactly 9 years ago today! , 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 14115 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 6):
Much as I love the A380, I think this could well turn out to be an issue if/when the A388R/A389 get discussed/launched (if it isn't an issue already....).

How so? The A380 is the cornerstone of EK's plan for "world domination".  Wink

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
From EK's comments in the article it seems they are concerned not so much about capability/performance but the residual value on the HGW airframes.

Why doesn't Airbus guarantee the resale value? Reportedly they did it for Iberia.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 14072 times:

Quoting Emirates773ER (Reply 10):
Cancelling 30 flights a day is no joke!

Too right.......sounds like crisis level.

Zeke (or anyone), do you know the reason(s) for staff leaving in such numbers?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13983 times:

EK and QR both pushing for the A346E? That would make it very likely to become reality. From what I've read about the E version it seems to be a really great aircraft. Who will take the dumped 773ERs, then?

User currently offlineCruiser From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1001 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13962 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 13):
Who will take the dumped 773ERs, then?

There won't be any dumped 773ER's, so no one will get them.

James



Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13919 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 11):
Why doesn't Airbus guarantee the resale value?

That would be a risky move. Having already made the sale, why should Airbus take on that sort of risk?


User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13885 times:

Best case scenario, in 5, maybe six years, we have an A340-600E, which performs as well as a 777-300ER, you know, or just buy the 773ER now?

I think Emirates' growth is either going to mellow out, or they'll run the risk of their buble bursting.

They would rather have their be surplus demand for their seat than surplus seats for their demand.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8870 posts, RR: 75
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13885 times:

Quoting Emirates773ER (Reply 10):
Do you have any sources based on the claim you made? Cancelling 30 flights a day is no joke!

The source was a friend of mine that I caught up with last week, he is an EK capt, he is also leaving. He said last month resignations amongst pilots was 55, and over 300 cabin crew.

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 9):
No, David Sutton of FedEX said he anticipated 200 A388F/A389Fs in the marketplace (all operators) in twenty years, new builds as well as conversions.

Thanks.

Quote:
Meanwhile, FedEx has an eye on the ex-passenger A380 fleet for the longer
term, having traditionally bolstered its fleet of new-build freighters with
secondhand, cargo-converted aircraft. "As the passenger airlines take
the -900, they'll push their -800s over for passenger-to
freighter-conversions - probably around 2020," said Sutton.

A converted -800 would be "a less capable aircraft" than the new-build
A380-800F as it has lower operating weights, but would be "ideal for US
domestic or regional missions, as well as some international flying", said
Sutton. He added that Airbus has taken the conversion of passenger A380s to
freighters into consideration during the design stage, which should help to
simplify the modification effort when the time arrives.

Airbus currently holds firm orders for 27 A380Fs from four customers -
Emirates (two), FedEx (10), UPS (10) and lessor International Lease Finance
(five). Sutton says he expects that there will be "a fleet of 200 A380
freighters in the marketplace over the next 20 years".



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 12):
Zeke (or anyone), do you know the reason(s) for staff leaving in such numbers?

Working too hard, crossing many times zones with min rest, he was saying like on a AKL trip they would only have 12 hrs off between flights, sometime cabin crew will go on from one port when the pilots are swapped, sometime getting less rest than the pilots. At one stage they were not counting bunk time in flight as pilot flight time, effectively working them 1300 hrs a year. Pay is not that great, cash is about 5000 pounds a month for a captain near the end of his career (seems like a lot, compare that to other non aviation senior managers working shift work), lifestyle in DXB is all gloss, "great to visit", under the gloss he said living there is horrible, poor law and order, e.g. 5 locals have hit his vehicle, no police investigation for any of them it goes on and on.

He could work for airlines like Jet Airways based out of LHR "at home" living with his family with better rest, pay, and lifestyle.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13885 times:

Quoting Cruiser (Reply 14):
There won't be any dumped 773ER's, so no one will get them.

No? If the A346E holds half of what it is promising, then some 773ER operators will be very sad.


User currently offlineFlyingHippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 680 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13828 times:

I noticed in the article, Mr. Clarke said the order is for 12 firm and 8 options, instead of 20 backlog orders stated by Airbus.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 13):
EK and QR both pushing for the A346E? That would make it very likely to become reality. From what I've read about the E version it seems to be a really great aircraft. Who will take the dumped 773ERs, then?

Three flaws I see in this statement, IMO...

1. When A356E is finally developed, Boeing probably will have more improvements on the 773ER, or have Y3 on the drawing board.
2. There is no guarantee that A356E will BEAT the performance of 773ER. I'm sure they'll be able to match it, but airlines won't waste the money to dump 773ERs for another plane that matches, or beats it by a small margin.
3. 773ER is still a relatively new plane, by the time the first A356E is delivered, there will probably be a lot of 773ERs backlogged to be delivered to airlines. I don't think airlines will dump any 773ERs before taking deliveries of it.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13800 times:

Thanks Zeke - guessed as much. As far as I know all Emirates' flights are out-and-return from Dubai; good business in terms of cutting overseas accommodation costs, but it looks like they're pushing people too hard. Only 12 hours between longhaul flights sounds more than 'hard', I'd say it's actually dangerous.

I can see why lifestyle would play a part too - and maybe even politics. By coincidence I just got an email from a pal who lives in Saudia - saying that, for the first time in many years, he's thinking of moving on; he says there's a lot more tension in the air recently, even there.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineCruiser From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1001 posts, RR: 7
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13800 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 18):

No? If the A346E holds half of what it is promising, then some 773ER operators will be very sad.

I am curious...would you mind posting what it is promising?

Thanks...
James



Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 962 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13789 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 13):
Who will take the dumped 773ERs, then?

QR never signed the 777LR order from mid-2005. No 773ER would be dumped.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 13):
From what I've read about the E version it seems to be a really great aircraft.

I don't know what you've read, but it essentially only matches the 773ER's economics nearly a decade after it's debut.

The A346E would trump the 773ER's range, because the A346 has greater fuel volume than the 777 to compensate for its inferior SFC. Match the 777LR's fuel burn and the extra volume gives the A346 more range.

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 4):
IIRC the E was a HGW with new engines incorporating Trent 1000 tech and some other minor tweaks.

It also includes graphting the A350 lightweight fuselage and introducing new aerodyanamics to the A340 structure. It isn't a minor upgrade: it would likely be another billion dollars or so, which would demand multiple customers.

http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getAsset.aspx?ItemID=10584

I would also venture to guess that Boeing could find some way to enhance the 773ER in the five to six years before the A340-E would debut. Another Ge PIP, a weight reduction campaign, or just boosting MTOW and fuel volume could really diminish the allure of the A340-E.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 15):
That would be a risky move. Having already made the sale, why should Airbus take on that sort of risk?

I agree.

From EK's perspective, this is a very tough decision. Hindsight is 20/20, and they had no way to know the 773ER would end-up matching the A346 range and carrying a greater payload and doing so more economically. I suppose they concievably fault Boeing's savy for putting them in this quandary!

If they opt for the A346-E in 2011-2012, I believe they would do so because they had no other option with Airbus. With the 2005 order for additional 777LR, will they not have adaquet capacity until 2011? It's assured that Boeing has line capacity after 2011, so it's not a stretch to say Boeing could easily absorb the A346 order.

But what to do with the A346-HGW order? My scenarios:

1. They keep the A346-HGW delivery in 2006-2007.

2. They convert the A346-HGW into -E and take delivery in 2011

3. They cancel the A346 order, place an additional 777 order, and consider converting the A346 order into one of the following types:

a. A330 - definitly not, A332 already on the way out
b. A340 - obviously not
c. A350 - very strong contender for a conversion, perhaps Airbus best asset to win the RFP. Boeing is still lobbying hard and offering EK an almost WN-like role in defining the aircraft, not easy to reject.
d. A380 - do they need any more?

- and the wild card -

e. A320 - why not? We know they focus on huge units of capacity, but they could concievably get the A346 order off their books very quickly and take delivery of an aircraft with outstanding residual value. EK could just spin-off a regional subsidiary with ~30 aircraft, opperate them for 5-10 years, then sell them off it was such a hassle. Who would have thought SQ would enter the LCC fray with Tiger Airways?

I doubt EK would fully default on the order, so a conversion sceanario of some sort seems most likely.


User currently offlineAT502B From South Africa, joined Dec 2004, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13789 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 18):
No? If the A346E holds half of what it is promising, then some 773ER operators will be very sad.

I think you are missing the point here- The A346E is only going to EIS in 2011 with similar performance to what the B773ER has today, why would an airline wait to get a A346E in 2011 that may not live up to promises?
I think Airbus is better off going back to the drawing board and start working on a competitor to the Y3, which Boeing is already working on albeit on the drawing boards.



I love the smell of jet fuel in the morning.
User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2172 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13739 times:
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Quoting Zeke (Reply 17):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 12):
Zeke (or anyone), do you know the reason(s) for staff leaving in such numbers?

Working too hard, crossing many times zones with min rest, he was saying like on a AKL trip they would only have 12 hrs off between flights, sometime cabin crew will go on from one port when the pilots are swapped, sometime getting less rest than the pilots. At one stage they were not counting bunk time in flight as pilot flight time, effectively working them 1300 hrs a year. Pay is not that great, cash is about 5000 pounds a month for a captain near the end of his career (seems like a lot, compare that to other non aviation senior managers working shift work), lifestyle in DXB is all gloss, "great to visit", under the gloss he said living there is horrible, poor law and order, e.g. 5 locals have hit his vehicle, no police investigation for any of them it goes on and on.

Sounds like the magic bubble is just about to burst...



Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
25 Hamlet69 : . . . but of course, the Enhanced won't be available until 2011 at the earliest, probably not until 2012. That's 6 years from now. So in this case, "
26 Post contains images Zeke : Hamlet69 Excellent post, many thanks for taking the time to put it together.
27 Lumberton : EK is one of their premier customers, representing >25% of the firm orders for its flagship, the A380. I would want to keep these guys happy at all c
28 Andessmf : Yes, they need to keep EK happy, but at what cost? You have an airplane just starting to be flight tested, that could be improved within 6 years? Tha
29 Post contains images Jacobin777 : they had a choice between dumping or not ordering the 777-300ER and the A346, they made their choice.........doesn't seem to me if EK are telling Boe
30 DAYflyer : Can someone please elaborate on the differences between the two models (HGW vs E)
31 Post contains links DfwRevolution : See Reply #22 and click on the link. In summary: Enhanced A340 to take on 777
32 Tifoso : Is one of them a bigger dis-advantage than the other? I suppose for an aircraft that is fuel limited, you can add additional tanks, but that would ea
33 Flying Belgian : Indeed, this would help me a lot too !! I'd like to know what can justify 4 years of difference in the delivery slots (2007 compared to 2011). FB.
34 FlyDreamliner : Here's the thing. The 777 is significantly wider than the A340. 772LR carries 6,000 fewer gallons of fuel than A340-500, and flies a few hundred miles
35 Lumberton : Don't some airlines (EK?) go 10 abreast already?
36 Post contains images Astuteman : I can't help but think that a new gen 55 000lb - 60 000lb engine (like the proposed T1500) with between 6% - 10% better SFC than its predecessors (de
37 PlaneHunter : Why would they after making enormous money for a almost decade with their B77Ws? It's not more than a guess. There could be just a small number of pa
38 Post contains images Jacobin777 : if he knew the future, he would be richer than Bill Gates....
39 Zvezda : Not necessarily. Reducing SFC would increase the range advantage of the A340-500E vs the A340-600E, however, reducing the weight of the fuselage woul
40 Andessmf : IIRC, the only successful commercial airplane re-engine program was the DC-8 70s series, of which about 100 were done. This also had the effect of ma
41 OldAeroGuy : And to be fair to Boeing, these are about the levels they always claimed to be the difference in trip fuel between the two airplanes. The 20+% number
42 Post contains links Sabenapilot : So basically, this confirms what I've said a few days ago, and for which I got attacked by some A.net members... http://www.airliners.net/discussions.
43 DAYflyer : An interesting upgrade to the aircraft, but you also still have 4 engines, which means more engine mx as compared to 2 engines. If GE upgrades the 777
44 OldAeroGuy : The first indication that the A346E will happen will be when RR announces they'll produce the engine. Until then, it's all speculation.
45 FlyDreamliner : Yes, uncomfortably, which is an advantage of 2 seats abreast on A340. I guess you could cram more seats into an A340, but it's already a less roomy a
46 WINGS : Welcome to the club mate. I too got bashed for the very same assumptions. How very true. Now more than ever. It´s going to be interesting to see wha
47 BoomBoom : Have you taken into consideration the development cost of this new A340E? If there is such a price disparity between the A340 and 777 how did the 777
48 Sabenapilot : Are you seriously suggesting a Genx (or trent 1000 for the record) of 90+Klbs???? A question: can you boost a CFM56 to produce 60Klbs for instance? O
49 DfwRevolution : Well then, crank up the pity party... That's quite a forgone conclusion. (1) Compare the initial cost of the A340NG program ($3.5 billion) and the 77
50 Sabenapilot : I'll make it simple to understand: The A340E would overtake the 777, making use of NEW ENGINES. Why does the 787 offer so much improvement over the 7
51 Post contains images Hamlet69 : See reply #25, where is says "Proposal." This is a run-down on what Airbus is thinking about doing to the A340. Depends, do you want to spend money,
52 N328KF : Do bring some perspective into this, please. We're talking about Airbus products with an EIS of 2011-2012. We don't even have a go-ahead for this pro
53 Sabenapilot : True, but it still leaves the GE-90 in need of a major overhaul if it were to match the TSFC of the trent 1500 which RR is seriously looking at, and
54 OldAeroGuy : The A346E can't do it on engines alone. The present fuel burn difference is on the order of 10%. The Trent 1500 is said to offer a 6% to 7% TSFC impr
55 FlyingHippo : A lot of us here (me, at least), can accept A345/6 E versions will match up against 77Ws, IF it materialize. It is not launched yet, RR hasn't commit
56 Lumberton : Pardon me for asking, but what exactly is the market for a 340E? EK and QR? Is it worth chasing?
57 Post contains links and images 767-332ER : First of all, your statement should say "why does the 787 offer so much improvement over the A350," considering the 787 is kicking the A350 to the gr
58 DfwRevolution : *ahem* match the B777 Irrelevant We are talking about an airplane (the A340 Enhanced) five years from EIS and you say there are no propulsion improve
59 EK156 : I don't think the information of 30 flights being cancelled is remotely true becuase EK would not be launching new routes or doubling on others if th
60 Sabenapilot : Just for your information: "LONGER" refers to the RANGE, not the fuselage LENGTH.... The rest of your post is suffering from the same lack of substan
61 Post contains images Ikramerica : He's baaaaaaaack!
62 Zvezda : A.netters sometimes forget the importance of purchase price in buying decisions, but it is not yet clear whether or not Airbus could sell the A340-60
63 N328KF : Well, to add to this...Airbus still has not yet fully amortized the A340-500/-600, or the A340-500HGW/-600HGW improvements, and now we're talking abo
64 Sabenapilot : I am not saying it can't be done, I am saying it most likely won't be done, because engine manufacturers have other priorities over the next decade!
65 Tom_EDDF : Wow, I've never seen an aircraft kicking anything into the ground... show me!
66 FlyingHippo : Not that I don't believe you... but where do you read about this kind of information? Thanks Just a wild guess... By then, they would have already re
67 Post contains links and images 767-332ER : Sabenapilot View Large View Medium Photo © Rez Manzoori - FlightLineImages So if "Longer" refers to the RANGE, what does the "FARTHER" refer to? Seem
68 Post contains images DAYflyer : If you can do new engines for the 340, why not for the better selling 777? GE can surely develop an engine with Genx technology in an appropriate thr
69 FlyDreamliner : Oh boy, looks like it's on again. The new engine for the 737/A320 replacement will be another CFM, partially developed by GE, partially by SNECMA. GE
70 Killjoy : What does FARTHER mean? Edit: beaten...[Edited 2006-03-17 22:27:03]
71 767-332ER : Thanks Killjoy, I took care of that a couple of posts above yours. He was too busy "grading" the "substance" of my post.[Edited 2006-03-17 22:29:18]
72 Glom : Hark at this lot. One rumour about a plane that might come along in over half a decade and all of a sudden, Boeing is on borrowed time. I had a little
73 Post contains links Sabenapilot : Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 67): they would have already recouped the R&D of the 787 program and be used on the 777... The cost of it is probably less
74 FlyingHippo : A346: It is longer and flies farther!!! than the A343. Let's not focus on the slogans of a particular airplane... If an airplane that will deliver on
75 N328KF : Look at DFW's post, reply 52. No doubt. If anyone has the resources to do it, it is GE. I struggle to see how Sabenapilot can insuate that what is ar
76 767-332ER : Seems like you're the one that doesn't want to give it up. Longer means just that..physically longer, specially when Airbus made it a point to build
77 Killjoy : That may be more believable if you mean covering the same distance! This man is correct.
78 FlyingHippo : EXACTLY!!! And you just proved my point!! IF Boeing decides to improve the 777 using composites, it would use 787 fuselage technology (Already paid f
79 PlaneHunter : They build it longer so that they can seat a similar number of pax. Later they simply used that fact for PR, taking advantage of that double meaning.
80 Sabenapilot : This has been discussed in all technical details 2 or 3 months ago already. Basically, the problem is that unlike the Trent 1000/500 combo, the GEnx
81 N328KF : Yes, I know. I read those posts when they were made. So you are reiterating what needs to be done, but not why GE would be unable to do it if they de
82 DfwRevolution : Boeing was referring to a 2016 EIS for such a variant as part of an entirely new program strategy. The point is the B777 family has room for improvem
83 Zvezda : That's rather harsh. I see plenty of mistakes from the native speakers of English here, so please cut some slack to those who learned English as a se
84 FlyDreamliner : Larger than An A340-300, sure. Larger than a 777-300? No. It's fuselage is longer. It has noticably less floor area and interior volume. Well sure, i
85 Post contains images Leelaw : Sabenapilot seems to be the St. Jude (patron saint of desperate situations, forgotten [lost] causes) of A.net and/or Airbus; just a couple of weeks ag
86 Post contains links Thorben : What is Y3 and why is it useful on a drawing board? It will beat the 773ER. And following your argumentation, why would anybody replace a A346 or A34
87 Post contains images DAYflyer : This has got to be the best post on any thread I have ever read on anet!
88 Post contains images Slz396 : So you are going to make him a saint now, are you? Guess he'll be soooo lucky!   He's only the second one after mr abulafa -or whatever the name of
89 Post contains images PlaneHunter : Y3 refers to a successor for the B747 and B777 families, incorporating technology used for the B787. Airbus has a history of missing performance targ
90 Post contains images FlyingHippo : Y3 is the code name for Boeing replacement of 773/747 capacity type planes, with technology adopted from 787. You fingers, you search, plenty of ment
91 Jacobin777 : that would be true Zvezda, but he insists on rubbing it in....bit arrogant if you ask me....
92 FlyDreamliner : You're so sure. That's a lot of confidence in a project that doesn't yet even exist. I hope that you are either God, or an Airbus engineer who has tr
93 PlaneDane : In fact, it is very clear to me that many who have English as their second language, actually do quite well with it. I see better grammar, spelling a
94 DfwRevolution : Y1 = Boeing's narrow body successor to the 737NG, now called 737RS Y2 = Boeing 787 Y3 is the long-term replacement of the 773ER and 747 as part of Bo
95 Lumberton : Hate to be a pain, but I was hoping someone could answer a question I asked earlier that got lost in the shuffle: where's the market for the A340E? EK
96 FlyDreamliner : Yeah, funny how they are sinking all this money into a plane that is hardly selling at all..... ESP when they have so much riding on A380, and they a
97 Jacobin777 : it didn't have to go as far..............EK has told Airbus to go fix their plane......its not good enough.......what's the confusion about?
98 Slz396 : Until last year -when oil price rose dramatically- the A340 sold rather good compared to the 787 (correct me if I am wrong), and it wasn't wider then
99 FlyingHippo : I think you mean A340 sold well compared to 777? A340 had a big advantage of a couple of factors: It enjoyed an advantage of beating Boeing to the ma
100 DfwRevolution : The A340 held its own against the B777 (not B787) until the end of 2004, after that, Boeing just took off. Market share at the end of 2004 was 55% Ai
101 Post contains images Thorben : OK, thanks. What history? Which planes missed? It has happened before. Just look at the MD-11. The old four vs. two issue. What makes two engines so
102 Post contains images Lightsaber : I'm hearing a little better through the grapevine for the Trent 1500. Why?: 1. Contra rotation (3% on its on) 2. 3rd generation swept fan design 2% 3
103 Zvezda : Boeing's task in developing Y3 is both more difficult and more complex than "adopting 787 fuselage to 777s, with new engines...." Experience with the
104 Thorben : The engines do 6-7% and the weight savings and aerodynamic improvements will do even more, so the A340 is ahead after that. (Some people always need
105 Thorben : First time ever that I agree with you.
106 OldAeroGuy : Do think that RR is Caritas that they wouldn't charge Airbus a high enough price for the Trent 1500 to re-coup their investment or does Airbus fit in
107 Post contains images Hamlet69 : And the difference between the 773ER and A346HGW is 15 tons. Your point? And exactly how do you figure that?!? You were very good at quoting the Flig
108 FlyDreamliner : So, if Boeing had just kept the 767 fuselage forever, that would be better right? They could just keep improving it forever, that way they have to ma
109 FlyingHippo : Please name the politics involved with AC, QF, EK, SQ, CX when they ordered 77Ws So, you're basically saying that Boeing only sells to major airlines
110 Post contains images Lumberton : QF didn't order the 77W--at least not yet.
111 Post contains images Andessmf : Thor, dont make this so easy A342 comes to mind, plus you see AF and LH already removing A343, not to mention SQ. Easy to dump, since there is a healt
112 FlyingHippo : DOH! you're right. I wanted to say 77W & 787s... Thanks for catching that!
113 Post contains images Cruiser : However, most of the 777 sales were more about performance than politics! One or two carriers dumped the A340 in favour of the 777. The A350 also got
114 PlaneHunter : Both the A340-200 and A340-600 missed their targets when they went into service. Airbus may be able to get it right with the A340E - but will airline
115 OldAeroGuy : If the Trent 1500 is this good, it will close the gap. However, I thought the T1500 was supposed to be a T500 fan on a T1700 core. If your Item 2 is
116 Post contains links Zvezda : I agree with most of your post, but some airlines do operate 2-3-2 in Business on Airbus aircraft. Czech come to mind. http://www.csa.cz/en/czechia/c
117 Post contains links and images Lightsaber : It will be an appropriate thust fan on the 1000/1700. I was talking compared to the Trent 1000/1700/1500 compared to the 500. If I exceeded scope...
118 FlyDreamliner : That said, the Airbus is still a more narrow fuselage, with the same bredth of seats, you compromise on size and comfort. the extra 2+ feet of fusela
119 Post contains images Jacobin777 : first of all I would like to thank you for the encyclopedia of knowledge you have posted on A.net. I think Airbus is sticking with their cross sectio
120 FlyDreamliner : They will never let the A300 cross section die. They are almost as bad Boeing and the 707 cross-section (still alive and well in 73NG)
121 Trex8 : RR can go to their Caritas, the UK government who will be more than happy to give them some more launch aid for even more newer Trent versions, which
122 AndesSMF : Sorry, I was quoting Thor but pressed the select quote from your post. Thanks for the data on 2 vs 4.
123 Ikramerica : BTW - everyone is saying that a 345/6E will only be playing catch up to the 777LR, but that may not be the case. After all, the original 345/6 leaped
124 N328KF : It should be said that the A345/A346 "leaped over" the 772ER/773A in capabilities, not economics. The 772s were still ahead as relates to fuel burn/C
125 Jacobin777 : you certainly brought up some interesting facts...however, besides fuel burn, because of the structural differences, the 777-200LR has a much better
126 Atmx2000 : Increasingly, it seems the status of the A340 line during the time before EIS will be a big problem. There will be a cost to Airbus for this line wha
127 PlaneHunter : True, there are airlines with 2-3-2 (EK, for example). It's rather the limited competitiveness I tried to emphasize. PH
128 Post contains images Astuteman : Primary reasons why you remain top of my RU list Great information, Lightsaber. Like you I had heard similar figures for 1500 from inside RR. Unlike
129 Cruiser : Given that the current fuel burn delta is around 7-8%, and given an EIS of 2011 or so, the new fuel burn delta would be around 12-15%. If the engines
130 Leelaw : It would seem to be given the historical development of the two product lines. The other logical question is why did EK order both the 773ER & A346IG
131 NAV20 : I think that's close to the mark. EK may have made the mistake of assuming that their phenomenal growth in the early years would continue at the same
132 Post contains images Lumberton : Don't forget the 783. Yes, but Airbus won't pursue this unless there is significant sales potential. The existing fleets of A340s will still be servi
133 PlaneHunter : You seemed to indicate that manufacturers wouldn't allege any contract any more because they are too much afraid EK could cancel massive orders. Foll
134 OldAeroGuy : While having a fuselage in common with the A350 will save some costs, there will still be significant developement costs for the A346E. These will be
135 Astuteman : All planes carry an R+D burden. $4M - $8M is pretty small beer. I also suspect the A346HGW is being sold/delivered for substantially less than $4M -
136 OldAeroGuy : The rub is we don't know where Airbus or Boeing is pricing the A346/773ER so we don't know how significant the impact of cost recovery efforts are. $
137 Trex8 : but isn't the 773ER supposed to cost more than a 744 - certainly Boeings own list prices are) and most figures I have seen suggest the A346 is certai
138 Post contains links Leelaw : I'd figure on much more, John Leahy said at the time of the "cash-back proposal:" “Is it a good investment [for Airbus] to spend a couple of billio
139 OldAeroGuy : I'm sure you are more than aware that list price and selling price are seldom the same. A high list price does make the selling price discount look b
140 Post contains images Lightsaber : Thank you. Warning, I'll now watch your posts to see if you belong on my RU list. Let's just say I'm a propulsion nut, so its a good thing I work in
141 Post contains links Lumberton : Here's a link to a presentation by The Teal Group authored by Richard Aboulafia. http://www.leeham.net/default.asp?Page=27 Click on the link entitled
142 Trex8 : yes but the point is the relative pecking order is still likely to be the same, 773ER > 744 > A346
143 Astuteman : Thanks for the link, Lumberton. Frustratingly, the slides only illustrate "777" en-bloc, whilst breaking the A340 down into A340 -200/300 and A340 -
144 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I'm neither too smart nor am I too much of a technical guy/technical savvy (as compared to others such as someone like you, widebodyphotog, etc. on A
145 OldAeroGuy : Given the development money that's been poured into the A346HGW and potential costs for the A346E, I don't know if this is a given. You also need to
146 FlyDreamliner : Not to mention they'll have to recoup the R & D costs poured into it.
147 Post contains images Lightsaber : Those are sunk costs. A business should never make decisions based on sunk costs. Wikipedia had the best example (paraphrased with my own additions).
148 Post contains images Jacobin777 : of course, that's why I put the disclaimer in my post...
149 OldAeroGuy : But there comes a time when you don't throw good money after bad. Using your analogy, if you know the movie is bad beforehand, you choose to not spen
150 Lumberton : There is also something called "opportunity" cost, or alternative uses for the resources. Honestly, I've been trying to get an assessment (without su
151 Zvezda : My personal opinion is that Airbus should not throw good money after bad by further developing the A340. I think it would be wiser to stretch the A35
152 LAXDESI : How much would it cost to stretch A350 to A340-500 length? Would it not make more sense to concede one segment to Boeing and work on a replacement fo
153 AA777 : For some reason I'm doubting that they will be able to pull this off without significant expenditures in R&D..... they're fighting the 777's plainly
154 Zvezda : A lot less than it would cost to develop the A340E -- perhaps $400M to $500M. I think the B787 is a better plane than the A350 for most missions, but
155 DfwRevolution : With the A359 now larger than the A333/A343, I suspect Airbus is now very close to the A345's fuselage length. The A359 cabin is only 1.75 meters (13
156 Zvezda : I didn't mean a redefinition of the A350-900. I meant a further stretch, with all that implies. BTW, I hadn't realized the A350-900 was that close in
157 LAXDESI : Thanks for your estimate on A350 stretch. I wasn't suggesting that they drop A350 but that they drop A340E and treat 340HGW development costs as sunk
158 RJ111 : It's probably worth estimating who would be interested in placing a sizeable (10-20) order for the A340E at some point in the future. And whether that
159 FlyingHippo : I agree with you that EK and QR would be the most likely candidate to order A340E. NW - If they still exist, they might look into it to replace 744s.
160 Lumberton : NW and QF! Why?
161 RJ111 : EY also have 8 A345/6's on order, and they strike me as one of those, uber-expanding, "we'll order everything" airlines. SQ i agree is unlikely. I do
162 N328KF : No, no. You're the one that made the assertion, so you have to back it up. It's not Lumberton's responsibility to knock down your claim. The onus is
163 RJ111 : Why should i search around for quotes and give arguments if all he can be bothered to say is "why?". Anyway, form the horses (NW) mouth.... "In summa
164 N328KF : I could say the same for your statement. You made a simple assertion without explaining yourself. He wants you to back up your statements. I believe
165 Zvezda : I'm sure QF are already considering the A340-500E for SYD-LHR, however, I'm confident they will find that the operating costs are too high. A B787-8/
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