Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Lufthansa Fleet Replacement  
User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 10748 times:

As Lufthansa is looking to replace the B744 & A343 and wants to add freighters to their fleet, what could be the most logical choice?

1. B748I + A350 + B777F

2. B748I + B787 + B777F

3. B748I + B772ER + B777F

4. A380 + B748I + A350 + B777F

5. A380 + B748I + B787 + B777F

6. A380 + B748I + B748F + B787

7. A380 + A346 + A350 + B777F

8. A380 + A346 + A350 + B744BCF

What do you think ? Which option is likely ? Or did i forget add. options..?

Johnny  Smile

46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 10642 times:

1 or 2 would be the most likely option among those listed. LH will not be ordering any more WhaleJets for a while. I also don't see LH ordering any B777-200ERs at this point. The B747-8 has a good chance. The B777F is also possible. A350 vs B787 will be interesting to watch.

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21474 posts, RR: 60
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 10592 times:

Option 9: A380+A350+744BCF+744F(used purchases)?

That's an option, isn't it?



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2364 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 10526 times:

Why would they dump their new A340-600s? I know they aren't that good, but who else would want to take them? I think it would look like:

A380 + 748I + 748F + A346 + 777F + 7810/A359 + 783 + A320NG/737RS.


User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 10517 times:

@ Kaitak744

My options are not about a whole fleet exchange, but a replacement for the B744 and A343 plus possible freighters, so no replacement for the A346-fleet.

 Smile Johnny


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 10492 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 3):
Why would they dump their new A340-600s?

I don't think that was suggested by the OP, but I don't see LH retiring their A340-600s anytime soon. The resale value is low and they work well -- albeit at a high operating cost. They could perhaps be replaced someday by the B787-10. If not, then they'll probably stay in LH's fleet until replaced by Y3 or Airbus' counter to Y3.


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 10405 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
LH will not be ordering any more WhaleJets for a while.

Whatever they'll purchase, additional A380's is a given (wich may be the convertion of outstanding options). IRC Mayrubher (I might have his name wrong, but I'm reffering to the LH CEO), has already announced that, without giving a specific number. All other possibilities are speculation.



SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 10398 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 6):
IRC Mayrubher (I might have his name wrong, but I'm reffering to the LH CEO), has already announced that, without giving a specific number.

Citation?

Quoting Manni (Reply 6):
All other possibilities are speculation.

The OP asked for speculation.


User currently offlineLukasMako From Austria, joined Feb 2006, 88 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 10377 times:

Hi,

Is it possible to convert Pax 744 into Freighter 744 as there are some structural differences.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 10375 times:

Quoting LukasMako (Reply 8):

Is it possible to convert Pax 744 into Freighter 744 as there are some structural differences.

Sort of. The result is the B747SF. It lacks the nose door.


User currently offlineLTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13864 posts, RR: 50
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 10330 times:

LH might eventually convert some of their Combis for cargo service. Costs will be low, as it will just require the shortening of the upper deck floor and floor strengthening and now installation of a side cargo door, but LH does seem to want to have the ability for loading payload through the nose, so the 747-8F will be an option LH will seriously look into. The 777F might also be an option, but only for replacing older MD-11s. They still have some fairly young MD-11 airframes, which can continue on for quite some time.

As for the passenger fleet, even though LH will take up more options for the A380, I believe the 747-8I will be a must for them. They still have a considerably big 747 fleet, one of the biggest in the world, and the A380 can't and will never be a 1 to 1 replacement for them. Besides, the 747-8I will be perfect for routes that are too big for the A346 and too small for the A380.

As for the question of 787 vs A350, that's still wide open. I personally expect LH to order the 787 as the perfect replacement for the 767s currently flying for DE. The 787-3 will furthermore be an option as a replacement for LH's A300 fleet, which will eventually have to go. Though the current fleet requirements speak more for LH ordering the 787, it's still wide open. The biggest question will be the A343 replacement, and we shouldn't expect anything on this quickly, as LH still has some young airframes of that type, so it will be a close call between the 787-8/9 and A350.

So, in my opinion, the LH widebody fleet will look something like this in the future, including the A330s they've just taken delivery:
  • 747-430BCF
  • 747-830F/SCD
  • 777-230LRF
  • A330-343X
  • A380-841
  • 747-830I
  • A340-642 and -642X (I presume the new frames LH is due to get will be the HGW model)
  • 787-830 (this would be the aircraft for DE)
  • MD-11F
  • 787-330
  • To be defined in the near future: 787-830/930 - A350-900
As far as the 737 replacement is concerned, it's all wide open. Let's see how Y1 progresses in the future, as the R&D for the 737 replacement has just begun. If Airbus can offer something that can effectively compete with Y1, then we'd have yet another open race for an order by LH.


User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6714 posts, RR: 78
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 10315 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
albeit at a high operating cost.

Operating costs may be higher in direct comparison to the competing model, but I wouldn't call them "high" in general.


PH



Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 10294 times:

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 10):
If Airbus can offer something that can effectively compete with Y1, then we'd have yet another open race for an order by LH.

Boeing are working on the B737RS (formerly known as Y1) and Airbus are working on the NSR. At this point, it's a wide open race for the future single-aisle market at nearly all the airlines. I know only that both will be better than either the A320 or B737NG.  Smile Progress is good regardless of whether it is from Airbus or Boeing.  Smile


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7057 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10199 times:

I am looking forward to the "real" Lufthansa fleet replecement thread very soon.
Every few weeks there is a discusion whether LH will go all Airbus or will order the 747-8 which gets kind of boring after a while since nothing new comes out of these threads anymore.
But if you ask me about LH�s longhaul fleet plans I have to say that
I am hoping for an 747-8/787 order which I think is very likely.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10175 times:

Quoting Columba (Reply 13):
I am hoping for an 747-8/787 order which I think is very likely.

I will be shocked if there is a 787 order.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10159 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
Quoting Manni (Reply 6):
IRC Mayrubher (I might have his name wrong, but I'm reffering to the LH CEO), has already announced that, without giving a specific number.

Citation?

there has been a thread about this in the past, I think. The search function will give you the answer.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):

The OP asked for speculation.

Nothing wrong with that. Let it just be clear that additional A380's is not speculation. (un) Fortunately...



SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
User currently offlineKaran69 From India, joined Oct 2004, 2884 posts, RR: 18
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10150 times:

If LH stick to an all Airbus fleet, i could well see them going in for the following

A380 + A359 + A330F + A32X

However if they go for a Boeing Fleet replacment

B748 + B789 + B777F + B783 + A32X


What most of us are forgetting that Airbus recently decided to launch the A330 Freighter version which would blend in excellently well for their pilots because of commonality with the rest of their Airbus Widebody fleet

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 10):
Besides, the 747-8I will be perfect for routes that are too big for the A346 and too small for the A380.

That makes sense, but please can you or anyone else tell me such a route that exists in LH network.


User currently offlineAfterburner From Indonesia, joined Jun 2005, 1209 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 10003 times:

Quoting LukasMako (Reply 8):
Is it possible to convert Pax 744 into Freighter 744 as there are some structural differences.

Yes, it is possible. Cathay Pacific has converted one of their pax 744 to a freighter called Boeing Converted Freighter.

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Joule


BTW, I don't really care what types of aircraft LH will purchase for their fleet replacement, as long as they put PTVs on Y. Big grin


User currently offlineJohnnybgoode From Germany, joined Jan 2001, 2187 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 9919 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
LH will not be ordering any more WhaleJets for a while.

as denied by other posts, the LH CEO has in fact stated that they are looking to snatch up more A380s.

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 10):
LH might eventually convert some of their Combis for cargo service. Costs will be low, as it will just require the shortening of the upper deck floor

a converted 744F would not have a shortened upper deck.

he's an article which lends further credibility that LH will place a new order for long range aircraft, but also for its short range fleet. Sorry that it's just in German language:

'Ihre Strecken- und Preisoffensive wolle die Lufthansa jetzt auf Stuttgart und Berlin ausdehnen, deutete Klingenberg an. Zugleich gab er bekannt, daß die Kranich-Linie in diesem Jahr eine umfangreiche Flugzeugbestellung sowohl für kontinentale Strecken als auch interkontinentale Flüge plant.'

Source: http://www.welt.de/data/2006/03/20/862557.html

So what short range aircraft are they looking for? the word has been that LH wants to consolidate on one type for the short haul fleet. Apparently, this order will be way before Airbus and Boeing come up with something new, and perhaps this order will include some +/- 100-seat regional jet.

Any thoughts?



If only pure sweetness was offered, why's this bitter taste left in my mouth.
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7057 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 9791 times:

Quoting Johnnybgoode (Reply 18):
So what short range aircraft are they looking for? the word has been that LH wants to consolidate on one type for the short haul fleet. Apparently, this order will be way before Airbus and Boeing come up with something new, and perhaps this order will include some +/- 100-seat regional jet.
Any thoughts?

LH wants to replace their 737s and A320s with an all new aircraft by Airbus or Boeing. Until that they will not order any new aircraft in that segment. In fact LH fleet planer Nico Buchholz has said in an interview last year that they plan to keep their 737s beyond 2010.
So I guess a order for the short haul will be an replacement for the Avros. LH is planning an order for years and was always said to be a likely customer for the 717.
About the long haul fleet there are several threads about it:
RE: Bloomberg: Lufthansa Interested In 748I, 748F (by Columba Mar 13 2006 in Civil Aviation)#ID2655655

RE: Big LH Long Range Order To Be Announced In Mar (by Columba Feb 28 2006 in Civil Aviation)#ID2632582

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 14):
I will be shocked if there is a 787 order.

They are very interested in it from what you hear and read...............



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 9702 times:

Quoting Columba (Reply 19):
They are very interested in it from what you hear and read...............

Moi? I have not heard or read anything... other than what you and a few others have written on this forum...



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7057 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 9604 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 20):
Moi? I have not heard or read anything... other than what you and a few others have written on this forum...

Lufthansa in talks with Boeing for 747-8

By SUSANNA RAY AND JAMES GUNSALUS
BLOOMBERG NEWS

Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's second-largest airline, said Thursday that it is interested in passenger and freight versions of The Boeing Co.'s planned 747-8 airliner.

Lufthansa is giving Boeing proposals on how the Cologne, Germany-based airline would want both the 747-8, a proposed longer version of its largest airliner, and the new 787 model configured in the event it buys the planes, Boeing Germany President Horst Teltschik said in an interview in Berlin.

Boeing approved production of the 450-seat 747-8 in November in a challenge to Airbus' 550-seat A380 as the Chicago-based company tries to hold on to the jumbo-jet market it created almost four decades ago. The A380 will overtake the current 420-seat 747 model as the world's biggest commercial aircraft when it enters service later this year.

Lufthansa will have the world's second-biggest fleet of A380s once all 15 are delivered, starting in 2008.

Wolfgang Mayrhuber, Lufthansa's chief executive officer, was at Boeing's main plant in Everett last week to look at the 747-8 and the 787, Teltschik said.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine...lufthansaboeing10.html?from=wtnews

Just as an example, doubt that Mayrhuber would travel all the way to Seattle if LH is not interested at all.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 9344 times:

Quoting Columba (Reply 21):
Lufthansa in talks with Boeing for 747-8

By SUSANNA RAY AND JAMES GUNSALUS
BLOOMBERG NEWS



Quoting Columba (Reply 21):
Just as an example, doubt that Mayrhuber would travel all the way to Seattle if LH is not interested at all.

But the article is focussed on the 747, and I was talking about the 787. I am well aware of LH's expressed interest in the 747-8.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 9315 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 3):
Why would they dump their new A340-600s? I know they aren't that good, but who else would want to take them? I think it would look like:

A380 + 748I + 748F + A346 + 777F + 7810/A359 + 783 + A320NG/737RS

You must be joking! No airline would order such a diverse fleet.

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 10):
it will just require the shortening of the upper deck floor and

The upper deck remains in place.

Lufthansa will obviously order more A380s eventually. I just dont see sense in ordering the 777 or 787 either as such a move will only complicate the fleet. I think the A350 is the obvious choice to replace the A343s, and eventually the A330s. And replace the 744s with more A380s and also 748s. The A340E is also a possibility if it materialises.

Regards Cargo, the 748 is a very good possibility as is conversions of their existing 744s And maybe even the A300s.


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7057 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 9244 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 22):
But the article is focussed on the 747, and I was talking about the 787. I am well aware of LH's expressed interest in the 747-8.



Quoting Columba (Reply 21):
last week to look at the 747-8 and the 787



Quoting Columba (Reply 21):
would want both the 747-8, a proposed longer version of its largest airliner, and the new 787

Just the title is about the 747-8, the article itself is about both planes.
There are other articles as well from last year where Mayrhuber stated his interest in the 787, I choose this one because it is the newest:

From last year:"Mayrhuber said the Boeing 787 would be interesting for Lufthansa in a long-haul
version. "But for us, this race between Airbus and Boeing has not yet been settled," he
added."
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxn...4&subject=companies&action=article



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
25 Merlin : @ Johnny. hi! as per the options given and the answers to it,i feel option 2 is more applicable,if the 380 has got a role to play then option 5 or 6 w
26 Atmx2000 : I saw the throwaway line at the end about the 787, but it was clear from the article that the focus is on the 747-8.
27 Ushermittwoch : 5 through 7 look good (and likely) to me.
28 Zvezda : Whether or not LH will order more WhaleJets most certainly is speculation. This was most likely said to get a lower bid price from Boeing. Mayrhuber
29 B777A340Fan : Hmm...IMHO, LH is going to stick with Airbus for their long-hauls and add the B747-8 for long-hauls/freighters. So order slip will read (IMHO): A380 +
30 TheSonntag : During the first-flight ceremony, there was an interview with Mayrhuber in the German TV where he said that LH so far had always placed additional or
31 EI321 : @B777A340Fan You might be right there.
32 Tjc2 : I reckon potentially option 6, but not sure on B787's or A350s. The reason for indicision between 787/350 is becuase i am not sure on what the LH flee
33 Zvezda : That's a non sequitor, as I explained in Reply 28. Statements of the sort made by Mayrhuber are usually made for the purpose of driving down prices o
34 TheSonntag : Yes, but statements like the one Mayrhuber brought forward and the typical way LH has been acting in the past allow to draw conclusions for the futur
35 Columba : Do you mean A340s or A380s ?
36 Zvezda : More A340s seems more likely than suddenly buying B777s, but I think LH are more likely to order A350s or B787s instead.
37 LTU932 : The upper deck itself yes, but not the floor. While the upper deck cannot be shortenend, they can most certainly shorten its floor.
38 A342 : Do you need another quote ? From an interview in a reputable German aerospace magazine: "Whenever in the past LH has ordered aircraft, those were not
39 Manni : If the LH CEO says they'll order more, it's not speculation. Who else would you like to hear it from, before you'll conclude it's not speculation? A
40 Shenzhen : I heard from a reliable source (LH VP) that they are considering an order for 30 747-8 airplanes. If they did order, that would be a huge boost for th
41 Zvezda : Yes, it is speculation. Mayrhuber could make daily statements along the lines of "I see no reason why we wouldn't buy more WhaleJets." and "We're in
42 Manni : Keyword is considering. Any airline that needs to replace their 744 fleet will be considering the 748 amongst other planes such as the A380, 773 or A
43 Shenzhen : Ummm... I didn't ask if they were considering any specific model airplane, and what he told me didn't include all your variables. This wasn't a publi
44 Post contains images Manni : We'll find out soon if he was just messing around or not... 30 747-800's?
45 Zvezda : If LH are planning to buy 30 JumboJets, then LH management has a fiduciary responsibility to consider buying more WhaleJets as an alternative and to l
46 Columba : If you combine freighters and pax versions 30 aircrafts can be the right number. Did you also talk about the 787/A350 ?
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Lufthansa Fleet Planning Update posted Thu Oct 19 2006 15:38:58 by PanAm_DC10
Air Baltic Fleet Replacement posted Tue Sep 26 2006 10:37:47 by Flying-Tiger
Federal Express Fleet Replacement posted Mon Sep 25 2006 21:32:00 by SkepticAll
XLA; Fleet Replacement posted Sat Aug 5 2006 22:22:15 by EWS
Snba Fleet Replacement After 2010 Only posted Fri Apr 14 2006 10:52:34 by Flying-Tiger
Lufthansa Fleet Replacement posted Mon Mar 20 2006 02:23:12 by Johnny
Australian Airlines Fleet Replacement & More... posted Mon Jan 10 2005 03:44:36 by MEA
Lufthansa 737 Replacement posted Fri Feb 27 2004 14:10:35 by FutureCGNPilot
Spirit Airlines Fleet Replacement? posted Wed Dec 24 2003 03:41:47 by Akjetblue
Air NZ Long-haul Fleet Replacement posted Thu Sep 18 2003 04:43:54 by Brutie