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A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?  
User currently offlineAnts From New Zealand, joined Feb 2004, 119 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 8642 times:

As has been widely discussed on a.net recently, Airbus is going to try to evacuate 853 passengers and 20 staff from the A380 within 90 secs using 8 exits in Hamburg tomorrow, Sunday 26 March. A overview of the test can be found here: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/263847_air22.html

Over the last two years I think I have read dozens (if not hundreds) of posts on a.net stating that Airbus doesn't have a chance of getting that many off within the time period. Even Airbus has started to lower expectations ahead of the test by saying they're confident they'll at least reach 750 (see http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...oised+for+crucial+exit+trial.html)

So how about some people put their reputations on the line  sly  and state what the odds of success are. I suggest four categories, and alongside are my predictions.

1. The evacuation stops prematurely (due to injuries, technical issues, etc.) - 5%
2. At least 650 passengers get off: 80%
3. At least 750 passengers get off: 60%
4. All 853 passengers and 20 crew get off: 20%  thumbsup 

FYI, the 744 was certified with a max of 540 passengers after a 1986 evacuation test using 6 exits...

55 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEos757 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 21 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8620 times:

Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

If they are pre-inflating slides, the crew and pax are going to know/see/realize the locations of useable exits.

Unless they inflate ALL the slides before-hand. Then "block" the unuseable exits at the last moment. But then there would still be a significant time savings in not having to open doors and "deploy" evacuation equipment.

I have (as a crewmember) participated in these exercises in the past, and I consider them very important drills. Have the details of how these exercises will be conducted been released?

Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Curious to hear more details.


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8614 times:

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
the 744 was certified with a max of 540 passengers after a 1986 evacuation test using 6 exits...

How many passengers were seated on the plane when the test began?


User currently offlineScorpio From Belgium, joined Oct 2001, 5052 posts, RR: 44
Reply 3, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8591 times:

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

Did you read the Seattle PI link? Please do so before asking questions that are clearly answered in that article.


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9229 posts, RR: 76
Reply 4, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8591 times:

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
So how about some people put their reputations on the line and state what the odds of success are.

I think very high, the number of pax per exit should be less than a 777.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

For safety.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

Same in this case.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Unless they inflate ALL the slides before-hand. Then "block" the unuseable exits at the last moment. But then there would still be a significant time savings in not having to open doors and "deploy" evacuation equipment.

Seems logical. Inflating all the slides, but not using them would also show if and slide would fowl another. Also I think some time is taken off for predeployment of slides.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Should have people from FAA and EASA overseeding the test.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineAnts From New Zealand, joined Feb 2004, 119 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8591 times:

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
I have (as a crewmember) participated in these exercises in the past, and I consider them very important drills. Have the details of how these exercises will be conducted been released?

Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Curious to hear more details.

I think you'll find most of your questions are answered in the Flight International article I posted. Unfortunately the url wasn't quite correct the first time I posted it so here it is again: http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...poised+for+crucial+exit+trial.html


User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8541 times:

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

Same rules in europe. The pax and crew won't know which exits are useable.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
If they are pre-inflating slides, the crew and pax are going to know/see/realize the locations of useable exits.

They are entering through a tunnel, so they cannot see which slides are inflated.

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
1. The evacuation stops prematurely (due to injuries, technical issues, etc.) - 5%
2. At least 650 passengers get off: 80%
3. At least 750 passengers get off: 60%
4. All 853 passengers and 20 crew get off: 20%

I'd say barring a premature stop due to injuries, 750: 100%, 843: 80%. The exits are enough IMHO. And the crew will make sure that the people with jitters from the upper deck will be "convinced" quickly to slide down. Besides, they won't even see how high they are.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineAeronut From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8383 times:

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

If they are pre-inflating slides, the crew and pax are going to know/see/realize the locations of useable exits.

Unless they inflate ALL the slides before-hand. Then "block" the unuseable exits at the last moment. But then there would still be a significant time savings in not having to open doors and "deploy" evacuation equipment.

I have (as a crewmember) participated in these exercises in the past, and I consider them very important drills. Have the details of how these exercises will be conducted been released?

Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Curious to hear more details.

Just because the slides are deployed, it doesn't mean that the doors won't be jammed shut. This is how it will be done.


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8319 times:

Lets start a "office pool" to see who can guess the number that the A380 is certified at. While this is not gambling for the pool, the winner gets bragging rights

I take 731  Big grin


User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8310 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 8):
Lets start a "office pool" to see who can guess the number that the A380 is certified at. While this is not gambling for the pool, the winner gets bragging rights

I take 731

Like I said ealier, at least 750, but let's keep that number...750.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2607 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8278 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 8):
Lets start a "office pool" to see who can guess the number that the A380 is certified at. While this is not gambling for the pool, the winner gets bragging rights

I'll say everyone gets out - 853.


User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8267 times:

My guess will be 777! Of course if that is the number, Airbus will remove at least one!

User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9229 posts, RR: 76
Reply 12, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8267 times:

All would be 853+20 .... 873  Smile


We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineBjornstrom From Australia, joined Jun 2005, 329 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 8199 times:

The demonstration in Hamburg will use 853 volunteer �passengers� drawn from Airbus staff and local gym members, plus 18 cabin crew provided by Lufthansa and two flightcrew.

Would be more interesting with people "from the street" - ordinary people and not just gymnasts and Airbus employees with full knowledge of the aircraft layout and evacuation procedures.



Eurobonus Gold | BMI Gold | http://my.flightmemory.com/bjornstrom/
User currently offlineKFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3309 posts, RR: 30
Reply 14, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 8163 times:

Tough call...I think the exits will become overly-bottlenecked too fast, especially on the top. Gut feeling? 600, max.


"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8139 times:

Quoting Bjornstrom (Reply 13):
Would be more interesting with people "from the street" - ordinary people and not just gymnasts and Airbus employees with full knowledge of the aircraft layout and evacuation procedures.

Every passenger on every flight should have "full knowledge" of the aircraft layout and the evacuation procedures, it is one of your responsibilities when you fly. That is why the show the safety movie or hold a safety demonstration before each flight, and print up all those laminated safety cards!

Additionally, I really don't think a secretary in the payroll office or a security policemen that guards the gate has "full Knowledge" of the aircraft layout and evacuation procedures. Those are the type of Airbus employees they would chose for the test. Remember it has to be a cross section of society.


User currently offlineEos757 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 21 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 8046 times:

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 3):
Did you read the Seattle PI link? Please do so before asking questions that are clearly answered in that article

Actually NOT all of my questions were answered in that article. And the other link (which did provide additional details) was faulty at the time of my first post.

I was generally looking for any additional details about this test. And providing my own thoughts and observations on the subject. Having a conversation, if you will.

Jeesh, tough crowd eh?

Quoting Ants (Reply 5):
I think you'll find most of your questions are answered in the Flight International article I posted. Unfortunately the url wasn't quite correct the first time I posted it so here it is again: http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles....html

Ants, thank you for the corrected link.


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 8031 times:

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 14):
Tough call...I think the exits will become overly-bottlenecked too fast, especially on the top. Gut feeling? 600, max.

Hope you are wrong because EK bought 43 of the big beauties with the intent of putting 650 pax on at least some of them. That would cause a serious issue for Airbus, and I might add that the various press releases said they would retest if they don't get at least 650. However, they get only ONE retest.

And remember EK has pushed back on 12 A340-600 whatever models, so they are not shy about telling anybody off.

Might be an interesting day tomorrow.  Big grin


User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 7972 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
Hope you are wrong because EK bought 43 of the big beauties with the intent of putting 650 pax on at least some of them. That would cause a serious issue for Airbus, and I might add that the various press releases said they would retest if they don't get at least 650. However, they get only ONE retest.

Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

It's in the aticle posted about how the A350 is better than the 787.

Here's a snippet.

Q. What is happening with the superjumbo A380?

A. We are still in the test phase, the final phase of development. Some milestones are coming up. Soon we will have the evacuation test, in which we have to put 500 people out in 90 seconds.


User currently offlineGeorgiaAME From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1000 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 7961 times:

If we knew the answer, the test would not be necessary in the first place.

So rather than all of us gazing into our Harry Potter crystal balls, why not wait for some hard facts?

If the test fails or there are multiple injuries, clearly Airbus is in trouble. But despite the inevitable gloating, I doubt Airbus will scrap the project as a result. It isn't as if opening the door and blowing the slides has never been performed before. If the test is a rousing success, and all 800 get out in only 70 seconds, I still won't be too happy about being a passenger during the real thing, on either this aircraft or any other one.

I can see the threads now: Whale jet FAILS major hurdle, managment puts on sack cloth and ashes! or Whale jet PASSES major hurdle, first passengers to fly next week! I don't think so in either case...



"Trust, but verify!" An old Russian proverb, quoted often by a modern American hero
User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2259 posts, RR: 56
Reply 20, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7910 times:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

I saw that too... maybe he's trying to set low expectations in order to beat them easily?  Smile

My bet is that they get 787 people out (probably on the second try.)


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7910 times:

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

Who is Mr. Enders and why does he say such things?


User currently offlineTguman From Canada, joined Apr 2001, 431 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7875 times:

my vote is for 704.5 people. The .5 counts for the life-sized dolls they will use. There is supposed to be three, if i read the article correctly.


Life is a Mine Field.
User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 7794 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 21):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

Who is Mr. Enders and why does he say such things?

He's the CEO of EADS. As to why he says such things I can't help you out there.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/25/bu.../25interview.html?_r=1&oref=slogin


User currently offlineAtnight From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 607 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (8 years 9 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 7785 times:

I think they will get all of them out.... At least over 800... IMHO...


B707 B727 B733/5/7/8/9 B742/4 B752/3 B763/4 B772 A310 A318/319/320 A332 A343 MD80 DC9/10 CRJ200 ERJ145 ERJ-170 Be1900 Da
25 Greasespot : I bet they have already done the test once before.....Made the employees sing confidentiality agreements......This high profile...i do not believe the
26 Poitin : I would say Airbus has a real problem if their owners don't have a clue. Thanks for the link, although it pay for view. I thought that it may have be
27 Alessandro : Georgia, stop the A380 if evacuation test fails? Hardly, then it´s all cargo-hauler, but I doubt that will be the outcome.
28 Post contains images Leelaw : He also said that "you could even put a tennis court inside (which is physically impossible as even a "singles" tennis court is 27 ft. wide)." Even J
29 Post contains links Ants : I've just seen that the FAA has actually certifed the 744 for 660 passengers (550 on lower deck and 110 on upper deck) so I assume an evacuation test
30 Post contains images Art : I'm from Europe, so my bet has got to be 350. One thing I do wonder about: given the drop from the upper deck, how hard will people be hitting anyone
31 YYZflyer : My guess would be.............somewhere around 750. It would be different in a real emergency.
32 Glideslope : Prediction: The test will be rescheduled due to all the rampant speculation on A.net.
33 ContnlEliteCMH : I'll take 785. It's just a silly guess. I have no rationale for it.
34 Post contains images CVG72 : A380 + A350 ------- A730 CVG72
35 Mikester540 : My Prediction: 871 I bet they'll have no problem getting all of the people off, minus a few of the crew and such...
36 Zeke : My understanding is that the upper slide was never tested, the FAA gave the approval with the special letter from the FAA to Boeing. My understanding
37 Ikramerica : yeah, but 380800+350900= 731700! That's a lot of pax. Is there a caveat that says 550 max on main deck, with 110 on upper deck if desired? Obviously,
38 Corey07850 : I'm going to go with 680... just an off the wall guess
39 B777fan : I'll take 800. 100 per exit. (Atnight said "at least over 800" - so 800 was still open!)
40 Post contains images Atnight : That's funny B777fan... liked your sense of humor... we'll see who wins in "The Price Is Right"!
41 Post contains images Airwave : I'm rather surprised that no one's shouted out "666!!!!" and then run off. Hoo-ray for restraint! Hahaha, that's all we need: Barker'll show up on thi
42 Post contains links Leelaw : I'm sure Humbert & Co have a few knots in their collective stomachs this morning. Airbus has never been too keen on being required to conduct a "tradi
43 PlaneHunter : I'm sure that was a mistake, somehow produced during or after the interview. Airbus certainly did not reduce the number to 500 and it's very unlikely
44 Post contains images Leelaw : You may be right Udo. However, Enders also said in the same interview that "you could even put a tennis court inside [the A380] (which is physically
45 PlaneHunter : True, another very strange statement. I'm wondering - why (apparently) didn't the editors jump on that? Not enough time, or not enough research? Well
46 KFLLCFII : So when do the fireworks start?
47 Post contains links Ants : Well according to this report: http://www.nachrichten.at/apanews/ap...D=ae053f3f5ca07cdc108f45b4ea8381ad (in German) I think it says it'll occur betw
48 Jush : You are all to pessimistic but's hey it's the a.net crowd. Alot of people who have no value to society whatsoever + a few with an open mind and knowle
49 Corey07850 : Well I forgot when the European Daylight Savings occurs, but at the time of this post, it should happen in an hour or two! Good Luck Aiirbus, hope no
50 Post contains links Alessandro : Jush, don´t worry, not everyone that claim to be an aviation fan is that, they just root for a certain brand. Corey, I happened last night between 2-
51 Corey07850 : Thanks... So it appears the tests have about a half hour left!
52 A360 : Does anybody know how is the seat config? I know it's obviously all eco... but does anyone know how many seats per row? The regular layout for eco sea
53 Leelaw : IIRC, some galleys and lavatories have been removed from the test seat configuration to accomodate more passengers rather than adding more seats per
54 Post contains links Scbriml : According to this thread, everyone got off in 80 seconds! A380 Evac Latest: All Out In 80 Seconds (by Speedmarque Mar 26 2006 in Civil Aviation)
55 Post contains images ER757 : So, by forgetting to include the crew, do I lose bragging rights?? Congrats to Airbus for clearing this major hurdle - it was a job well done
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