LTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13864 posts, RR: 51 Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 9509 times:
Quoting NA (Reply 1): LH seems to be deeply interested in the 747-8I and -F, and probably the 787.
My money is that LH will order the 747-8, hopefully mostly for the PAX version and maybe a handful of freighters.
The 747 is and will be a perfect match for LH's operations. And regardless of whether LH has the A380 or not, the 747-8 will suit their operations very good, complimenting the A380 on routes that are too big for the Flying Pencil and too small for the Superjet, thus adding more flexibility into their operations and help LH phase out most of their 744s on a 1 to 1 basis. And needless to say, LH Cargo needs heavy lift capability, and that's what the 747 offers them.
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11705 posts, RR: 52 Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 9419 times:
In addition to a B-747-800I/F order from LH, and possibly AF and SQ, it seems to me the QF could also use some new A-747-800s. I think Japan Air and/or Nippon could also consider some, even though they recently ordered the B-787-800s. UA is also a candidate for the B-747-800 this year, so could AI. BA and Korean Air will wait until 2007 or 2008 to order the B-747-800.
So, 2006, 2007, and 2008 could all be good years for the Queen of the sky.
Ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21025 posts, RR: 60 Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 9371 times:
I did forget about UA, though I don't know if they'd do an order all at once. if we are talking an all at once order, I think the 3 I mentioned are most likely. Piecemeal, I still don't think JL or NH are looking for 748i's any time soon. 748F? maybe.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
Gemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5215 posts, RR: 6 Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9239 times:
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4): In addition to a B-747-800I/F order from LH, and possibly AF and SQ, it seems to me the QF could also use some new A-747-800s
Not this year or next, I think. I strongly doubt you will see any QF orders this year or next, execpt for infills orders like the B738/A320 orders recently discussed AND, of course, the ULR order if it is worked out with the manfactures to QFs satisfaction.
A B744 replacement is not urgent, the A380 will replace those serving SYD/MEL -LAX & LHR, I strongly doubt QF will make a decision on wether to order more A380 or something else(748/777) to replace its B744 until it has serious A380 operating exprience, say end 07- mid 08. As well QF have almost $A12 Billion worth of orders outstanding, so I see pressure to digest some outstanding A380s first.
Of course this could all be blowen out of the water if there is movement on the ULR front. In that case, assuming its B772ULRs then almost any type of deal could be done including 772ER, 773ER or 748 as well as the 772ULR.
Columba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 6798 posts, RR: 5 Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9158 times:
Quoting Cuprita (Reply 7): I think that QF will be the first.............
I donï¿½t think so, first of all Qantas just placed this huge 787 order and has not shown so much interest in the 787-8 right now.
LH on the other hand was the airline that stated the most interest in the 747-8 so far. They also announed an order for new longhaul aircraft soon.
Quoting NA (Reply 1): LH said something about an order as early as end of march
Where do you have heard about an order as early as the end of march ?
Mayrhuber said on the annual press conference, that they discuss the issue of the new order intensively and expect a decision in the near future ("heuer" as he put it in Austrian).
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
NA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 9597 posts, RR: 10 Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 9042 times:
Quoting Columba (Reply 8): Where do you have heard about an order as early as the end of march ?
Sorry, seems I got confused with SIA here. LH wants to place a substantial widebody order in 2006, evaluating the 747-8I (pax and F), further A380, A350 and 787.
According to the article the LH order seems to be the most interesting, and certainly the biggest of the year from Europe.
Interesting also to read that the 787 is overweight at the current status.
Leelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8900 times:
Lot's of talk from Boeing today:
FRANKFURT (AP)--Boeing Co. is confident that its new 450-seat 747-8 will appeal to European and Asian air carriers looking to fill more seats, an executive said Wednesday.
Jeff Peace, vice president and program manager for Boeing's 747 program, said the new plane will be slightly longer, accommodate more passengers, be able to fly farther and - in a nod to European airports - be quieter because of new engine designs.
"The engines and the wings are the two things we have been working on," he told reporters...
...Though there have been no orders for the passenger model yet, Peace said that dozens of airlines have been in talks with the U.S. manufacturer...
"...We still anticipate orders for the Intercontinental this year," he said of the passenger plane...
...Peace said Boeing expects to sell both models of the 747 for between $260 million to $280 million with initial demand coming from Europe and Asia.
"Over the next 20 years we see need for about 900 airplanes," he said, with 300 being freighters and the remainder for passenger use.
Zkpilot From New Zealand, joined Mar 2006, 4739 posts, RR: 10 Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 8848 times:
I'd say that NZ would be looking to repeat its 787 genius by become a launch customer for the 747-8 also! Order of 4x 747-8 plus options for 4 more I think, to replace the 8x ageing 744s from about 2010. This would leave NZ with a fleet mix by 2012 of:
8x 777-2ER (plus 4-5 777-2LR possibly or more 787 orders)
4x 787-8 (plus another 4 most likely)
(the last 737-3s made so still relatively new but due to be replaced around 2013. Most likely NZ will wait for replacement of both 737-3 and A320 until Boeing and Airbus come out with their replacement type).
I'd agree that QF is most likely looking at the 747-8 to replace its 744s around 2012 and its 744ERs around 2016.
My prediction is that LH will be a launch customer for the 747-8i and buy a number of 787s, possibly even the Dash 10 model.
Quoting LTU932 (Reply 2): My money is that LH will order the 747-8, hopefully mostly for the PAX version and maybe a handful of freighters.
Quoting NA (Reply 1): LH said something about an order as early as end of march, thats now, when CEO Mayrhofer visited Seattle recently. LH seems to be deeply interested in the 747-8I and -F, and probably the 787.
[Edited 2006-03-29 22:28:08]
336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26674 posts, RR: 83 Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 8364 times:
If I had to put money down, I'd put it on LH being the first to bite for the passenger model. I hear them rumored for the freighter, but then I also hear they prefer the MD-11F, which might push them to the 777F, instead. Plus they have plenty of 744s that will be negated when the A380s enter service and those could be converted to freighters.
If not LH, then perhaps CX, though the 773ER might be an early look into their future long-range heavy lift plans.
I can't see JL or NH biting. The 773 offers plenty of domestic lift and I'm going to take a wild guess that it will offer better CASM for short-haul over the 748.
I tend to think QF will hold off, since the A380 should work for their trunk routes and the 787-10 would give them decent lift in the secondary markets now served by 743s.
SQ seems to want the freighter, at least, but with the A380 now looking dicey for SFO-HKG 24x7x365, they might want to hedge their bets and order some 748s.
"We are currently responding to a request from Lufthansa."
"British Airways we would hope to see them in the market later this year."
"Alitalia is harder to say"
"KLM and Air France we would expect to see (soon)," Carson said.
As the first European airline to order the 747-8I I expect it will be Lufthansa and as USAF336TFS has said I also see them ordering the 787 in addition to that.
In Asia I predict Jet Airways will be the first airline to order the 747-8I.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
AA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3346 posts, RR: 4 Reply 23, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 6097 times:
I think CI, LH or SQ are most likely. They are evaluating a/c in this class and are likely to place orderes soon. BA, CX, QF, 9W, AI etc are all likely candidates but seem unlikely at the moment. BA, too much to think about, CX 77W seems to be the trick, QF other things on their mind, 9W not yet, AI we'll see but I doubt it'll come to fruition- the 77W will fill their needs. As for Japan, the 77W will suffice and JAL has a lot to sort out. Other carriers such as UA have to get their finances in order before ordering new, unnecessary a/c. My TT$0.01
Tguman From Canada, joined Apr 2001, 423 posts, RR: 2 Reply 24, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5665 times:
I love the educated speculation going on here. I really enjoy it.
(enter sarcasm mode) I think that in a surprise move, the all Airbus TACA airlines of Central America will order 10 747-8i for new routes to Europe and Asia (sarcasm mode off)
CO will not likely go for the 747-8i because they are trying to downsize their fleet variety. AA has flown 747 in a long while and the largest aircraft they have is the 772 so I doubt it will fit in their business plan (which we can see is working marvelously j/k)
Life is a Mine Field.
25 CO737800: What about Air Canada going for the 747-8? They have had 747s in the past.
26 LTU932: AC is very unlikely to order one, since they're already going for a 777 (-300ERs and -200LRs and -200LRFs)/787 combo. NW is in no financial position
27 Windshear: Is it a hope or hunch? I'd really like to see a mixed A/B fleet at Lufthansa, be it the B748 would just make it a whole lot more interesting Boaz.
28 UAL777UK: I cannot beleive that the boys from Boeings HQ in Chicago have not been trying to lure UA across the City to make some kind of order for the 747-8, o
29 LTU932: Considering that Mayrhuber has visited Seattle inquiring about the 747-8, I'd say it's both.
30 Leelaw: Boeing bullish on prospects for 747-8 Intercontinental. Airframer says sales effort will soon result in orders for passenger version of stretch. Boein
31 Manni: Again, what's with all these press releases, many words but no action. More than a dozen carriers (in the neighbourhood of 15 carriers) and they are
32 Kaitak744: Well, NZ took options for the 777-300ER when they ordered their 777-200ERs. So, I would think 77W would be the ideal 747-400 replacement for them. Al
33 LTU932: For me, Lufthansa belongs into the category of airlines considering the 748 and extra A380s.
34 ZK-NBT: That was because there was no such thing then as the B748. The 77W would be a rather large downgrade for NZ because it would need to be in a fairly p
35 Manni: In an older article, of wich we had a discussion in this forum, it was extra A380 and A346 or 748. Offcourse, this could have changed now...
36 Iwok: I agree with both of you. My "source" is the in-flight LH magazine. There is an article in the March issue which describes the work of a modeller who
37 NA: Interesting is that the flightglobal article mentions that only 5 positions are still free for late 744 orders until the line switches to the new 747