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A Question About The 747-8  
User currently offlineBoeingguy1 From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 415 posts, RR: 1
Posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4031 times:

Hello All,

I have a question about the 747-8 and its poor PAX sales. If, for example an airline such as NZ, BA or LH (purely hypothetical) were to come to boeing and say, "We are intrested, but not 100% yet..." Would it make sense for Boeing to "give" the airline one 747 if the airline orders, say, 20-40 aircraft? Just a thought, and if this sounds stupid, just call me a newb.  Wink


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10 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 1, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4008 times:

Quoting Boeingguy1 (Thread starter):
Would it make sense for Boeing to "give" the airline one 747 if the airline orders, say, 20-40 aircraft? Just a thought, and if this sounds stupid, just call me a newb. Wink

It wouldn't make sense, provided that we're talking purchase at listprice here. That would be a discount of 3 to 5%. For the launch customer one 748 for every other one ordered is much more likely. ANA ordered 50 787's, if the rumours abouth their discount are true, they might have to pay for as little as 30 to 25.



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User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 957 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 3908 times:

Quoting Boeingguy1 (Thread starter):
I have a question about the 747-8 and its poor PAX sales.

You can't call the B747-8I sales poor. There are none to call poor.

Besides, the B747-8 was only launched in November, six months ago. No RFP for the -8I has concluded yet, so none of the airlines looking at the -8I have yet said no.

Boeing expects passenger B748 orders this summer.

Quoting Boeingguy1 (Thread starter):
"We are intrested, but not 100% yet..." Would it make sense for Boeing to "give" the airline one 747 if the airline orders, say, 20-40 aircraft?

The first few launch customers are typically given very generous discounts when the product is still collecting momentum. Discounting a product to obtain early customers is usually a sound business decision. Boeing or Airbus still makes a good deal of money on the maintenance, spare parts, and support services.


User currently offlineTinkerBelle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3883 times:

Quoting Boeingguy1 (Thread starter):
I have a question about the 747-8 and its poor PAX sales.

Sales are worse than poor.

I don't think they'll get one to 'try out' but depending on how big an order, they'll probably get discounts better than if they got a freebee.

Quoting Manni (Reply 1):
ANA ordered 50 787's, if the rumours abouth their discount are true, they might have to pay for as little as 30 to 25.

That's a heck of a deal. If Airbus did this, you'd see all the Boeing cheerleaders jump on that rumor like white on rice how Airbus have to give away planes to win orders  biggrin 


User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3800 times:

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 3):
That's a heck of a deal. If Airbus did this, you'd see all the Boeing cheerleaders jump on that rumor like white on rice how Airbus have to give away planes to win orders biggrin

Airbus does do this. With all the rebates, hell, at this point, I could almost afford an A340



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User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10583 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3770 times:

Remember how long it took before the 773ER had its first substantial orders? Years.

User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4807 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3721 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 2):
Besides, the B747-8 was only launched in November, six months ago. No RFP for the -8I has concluded yet, so none of the airlines looking at the -8I have yet said no.

Are you sure that Boeing have fixed the design? I am sure that I read that this would not happen until September. There was a recent news report that they are working "feverishly" to quote the article, to fine tune the noise envelope.
Given all this I find it hard to believe that they are in a position to provide guarantees to customers.


User currently offlineGr8Circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3089 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3717 times:

Quoting Boeingguy1 (Thread starter):
I have a question about the 747-8 and its poor PAX sales.

I think you're jumping the gun....the plane was announced by Boeing just 6 months back and will be in production only 3-4 yrs from now....airlines take time to decide about such things...I think we are all getting over-influenced by the sales of the 787 and expecting something similar for the 747-8....how were initial days for the 787 ? It took some time before the orders picked up, right?

Quoting Boeingguy1 (Thread starter):
Just a thought, and if this sounds stupid, just call me a newb.

So, yes, it does sound stupid Big grin


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 957 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3686 times:

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 6):
Are you sure that Boeing have fixed the design? I am sure that I read that this would not happen until September.

Product launch and design freeze are two different events.

Launch usually occurs when the manufacture recieves its first order and then proceeds to begin full-scale design and development toward manufacturing the product.

Design freeze usually occurs after launch when the majority of the aircraft has been defined. The design isn't finished per say, but enough of the design (about 80-90%) has been completed that production of a prototype can begin.

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 6):
There was a recent news report that they are working "feverishly" to quote the article, to fine tune the noise envelope.

All indications are that the B747-8 is proceeding well with noise requirements.

Boeing should have QC.2 departure and perhaps QC.1 arrival in the bag.

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 6):
Given all this I find it hard to believe that they are in a position to provide guarantees to customers.

Given what? The B747-8 is a derrivitive which implies less risk and uncertanty than an all-new model.

More importantly, the trade studies the B747-8 is based upon stretch back to 1996. Most of the engineering work for the noise reduction features was studied during the 747-400XQLR project that would have made the 744 fully compliant with LHR's noise quota system.

The B747-8 isn't no risk, but is more comperable to the B777LR project than A380 or B787 project.

Quoting NA (Reply 5):
Remember how long it took before the 773ER had its first substantial orders? Years.

In it's first year, the B773ER gained 56 orders from JAL (8), EVA (4), ANA (6), Air France (10), with an additional (28) lease orders. In fact, 2000 was one of the B777's best sales years.

Were you referring to the B772LR by chance?


User currently offlineTrevD From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 327 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 3618 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 2):
You can't call the B747-8I sales poor. There are none to call poor.

Besides, the B747-8 was only launched in November, six months ago. No RFP for the -8I has concluded yet, so none of the airlines looking at the -8I have yet said no.

Boeing expects passenger B748 orders this summer.

DFW's correct. Having only launched the aircraft 5 months ago, most customers likely only received initial proposals after the 1st of the year and are still in the evaluation phase. Having seen proposals for the a/c, I can attest that most would not come due until the end of march or early april and it's not unusual to extend for a month or so if the evaluation is on-going.

Having seen proposals for the a/c, I can say there is a good business case for it and Boeing is clearly targeting it as a low-risk alternative to the A380. Admitedly this is less of a slam-dunk for the pax aircraft than it is for the freighter. Hearing around the market that one deal is already done and another will be done shortly, both of which will likely include a mix of pax and freighters.

If they close the year with 40-50 a/c on order I think it would be quite succesful... but we'll see.

Trev


User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2360 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (8 years 3 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 3448 times:

Quoting NA (Reply 5):
Remember how long it took before the 773ER had its first substantial orders? Years.

This is a bad example. Until flight tests were completed, the 777-300ER's performance did not exceed the A340-600. After the tests, The 777-300ER was a "better aircraft," and the orders started coming in. Airlines who had ordered the A340-600, then ordered the 777-300ER (EY, EK, CX).

The 747-8i is just formulating right now. Their is definitely a market for it, and it will sell.


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