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A380 Profitable From 2008  
User currently offlineRuudOnline From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 82 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6696 times:

"PARIS - EADS top man Noël Forgeard expect that the Airbus A380 programme will be profitable from 2008. He says that in the French newspaper 'Les Echos'. Already in 2007, break even point is reached, thus the former CEO of Airbus. The first A380 is delivered end this year to Singapore Airlines.

Forgeard denied recent rumours that the first delivery of the first A380 for Emirates is one months later than planned. The deliveries to the airline company starts, according to plan, in spring of next year. "

Source http://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/news/?ID=13235 (Dutch only)

Ruud

62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 970 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6645 times:

Quoting RuudOnline (Thread starter):
Already in 2007, break even point is reached, thus the former CEO of Airbus.

Does this not directly contradict all previous statements that the break even point was 250-300 delivered units? I'd like to see how a backlog of approx 150 units with only a small number delivered in 2007 reach "break even."

Positive cash flow is one thing, amortization (what break even typically implies) is totally a different ball game.


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6627 times:

Quoting RuudOnline (Thread starter):
EADS top man Noël Forgeard expect that the Airbus A380 programme will be profitable from 2008.

A little bit vague.

A380 will have recouped all its development costs? I don't think so.

A380's being built in 2008 will be sold for more than it cost to build them? Perhaps that's what he means.


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6556 times:

Quoting RuudOnline (Thread starter):
EADS top man No�l Forgeard expect that the Airbus A380 programme will be profitable from 2008. He says that in the French newspaper 'Les Echos'. Already in 2007, break even point is reached, thus the former CEO of Airbus. The first A380 is delivered end this year to Singapore Airlines.

Since it is a dutch article quoting a french source there's a possibility that something is lost in translation. Unfortunately the french newspaper can only be viewed online by the paying public.

Here's an option what he could have said,

That he expects to have enough orders from 2007. Taken the lowest number of aircraft needed to breakeven, Airbus needs to sell another 91 aircraft. This number excludes the already existing options that could be converted anyday.
Airbus expected to sell its A380 to 3 new customers this year (OZ, CI, BA come to mind). It's not because we dont know, that these and more might already be in an advanced stage. Furthermore Lufthansa and SIA are 2 carriers that could possibly firm up outstanding options in the near future that we know of. If succesfully launched in commercial service at the end of this year we might see a new wave of carriers ordering the jet for the first time (CX, BA, NH come to mind) and of carriers firming up outstanding options. 91 aircraft is absolutely not impossible.



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User currently offlineStudentFlyer From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 688 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6542 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
break even point was 250-300 delivered units

Perhaps this was calculated on an 80 or 90% airline discount?  liar 


User currently offlineAither From South Korea, joined Oct 2004, 858 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6542 times:

The A380 is financed with the current cash flow. As soon as the A380 are delivered (when they receivie the payments), it's pure cash in EADS pockets.


Never trust the obvious
User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 541 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6479 times:

I guess Airbus isn't planning on repaying its loans.

This statement is either misquoted or simply another assinine comment from the king of assinine comments. They already said they needs to sell hundreds before they get their money back and thats not counting their discounting. The A380 has a slim possibility of even sinking the whole company. Sounds like Forgeard is fiddling while Airbus burns.



The dude abides
User currently offlineJush From Germany, joined Apr 2005, 1636 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6374 times:

Quoting MrComet (Reply 8):
The A380 has a slim possibility of even sinking the whole company

Well this possibility is really slim

Anyway either there is a lot lost in translation or this is just a statement which is not really true. Or there are some outstanding orders outstanding Big grin

Regards
jush



There is one problem with airbus. Though their products are engineering marvels they lack passion, completely.
User currently offlineSq212 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 272 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6374 times:

Mounting pressure may have gotten him to say that. I don't think experts in the airline industry will ever believe the 380 program will be profitable in 2008.

User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6212 times:

Quoting Sq212 (Reply 11):
I don't think experts in the airline industry will ever believe the 380 program will be profitable in 2008.

Is that how they are called these days? Richard Aboulafia and his dworfs...  santahat 



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User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6100 times:

This topic has been scussed and rescussed to death.

When I was working for Douglas, development of the MD11 cost about 6.5 billion 1987 vintage US dollars. The company's position was that they had to sell 450 before the program would turn into a cash cow that would return a significant amount of money to the stockholders. I think that's a fair assessment.

The development of the A380 is ongoing and will be for some years yet as Airbus and its production partners gets the learning curve right and slim the production process-those are the birds that will make the money, not the ones they've got right now. Between the first prototype number 447 and when I got laid off around hull number 500, they'd reduced the manhours necessary to build the MD11 by about 40 per cent.

That end of the range is where the money lies, not in flight test and development, which is a money pit.

At present the price of development of the A380 is pegged at around 12 billion 2001 vintage USD, maybe more. That means that to recapture the twelve billion out of the first 250, not saying anything at all about what it costs to service that kind of debt, at least 48 million dollars out of what they receive as payment for each of the first 250 aircraft needs to be set aside. That'll go straight to debt service. Obviously this figure will escalate as the birds in the factory get more profit and less man hours built into them, and it's more of a steady stream as Airbus gets progress payments on work in house. The later ones may be able to pay the loans down at a faster rate.

Still, it's a lot of money to come out of Airbus' pockets any way you slice it.

Depending on who you talk to, I think a reasonable price for the A380 with an interior and a spare set of keys would be around $200 million.

The question is, can they do it? Can they make freaking money???

They've GOT to sell more planes, and to do that, people have to ORDER more planes, and then Airbus has to BUILD more planes.
No orders since last June for the A380 IS something to worry about. They CAN'T bankroll THREE development programs (A380, A350, A400M) out of revenue from the A320-even though that IS a cash cow.

All I hear is a lot of theorizing and spinning figures from both sides of this pissing contest around this place.

Maybe what people ought to do is stop this interminable bickering and jumping all over every piece of good or bad news no matter how silly to start yet another boring scrum and do some hard thinking and research.

[Edited 2006-04-07 15:48:14]

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 6087 times:

Can't read Dutch, so I can only guess at what he actually said.

At a guess, then, he's talking about marginal revenue exceeding marginal cost. That is, saying that by 2008 they'll be receiving more cash for a given airframe than that airframe cost them to build.

That isn't really a 'profit' in any language; certainly not any form of discernible profit on a multi-billion-dollar programme. But it doesn't bother me that Forgeard is saying it. It doesn't even bother me that he evidently believes it. After all, I don't own any Airbus shares, and I'm not planning to buy any.

[Edited 2006-04-07 15:59:19]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineMutu From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 536 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 5975 times:

I gues its a case of using accounting tricks!! If you spread the development costs over the selling life of the Whale (say 20 years) then compare order values received in a year against that years "charges" you get a surplus. Of course whithout delivery you dont get revenue so not a real profit, and of course cannot be talking about the real world of cash!!

User currently offlineDazeflight From Germany, joined Jun 1999, 580 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 5935 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
Can't read Dutch, so I can only guess at what he actually said.

At a guess, then, he's talking about marginal revenue exceeding marginal cost. That is, saying that by 2008 they'll be receiving more cash for a given airframe than that airframe cost them to build.

That isn't really a 'profit' in any language; certainly not any form of discernible profit on a multi-billion-dollar programme. But it doesn't bother me that Forgeard is saying it. It doesn't even bother me that he evidently believes it. After all, I don't own any Airbus shares, and I'm not planning to buy any.

That's NAV-'steam-machine'-20 at his best: yet another gem of hot air. He does not understand what is said, but doesn't even bother to keep it shut. Instead, he assumes and comes to a conclusion without needing any evidence or facts, just his superior knowledge. We all know you're full of it, so why don't you do us a favor and just say something when you actually have something to say?  butthead 


User currently offlineWingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2243 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 5935 times:

It is virtually impossible that Forgard actually said this in public. If he did he should be fired by his Board immediately. It is inconceivable that anyone in his position would be allowed to remain in their job with even a shred of confidence from the employees, customers and investors. I hope someone will publish the exact translation from the French piece. Just the brief snippet posted contains two absolute lies and one very misleading statement: 380 profitable from 2008-absolute lie, no delays on EK's 380's-an absolute lie either by Foregard or the customer...hmmmmm? Finally, first deliveries in "Spring" just like we originally said. That is hugely misleading unless EADS operates its manufacturing and delivery schedule according to the seasons. Next thing you know they will be delivering EK's planes when Saturn passes through the nexus of Cassiopeia and the high tide has receded from its highs between the hours of midnight and sunrise during the third week of the high summer season.

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5874 times:

Truly 'gemutlich' response, Dazeflight.

Care to tell us what you reckon he said?

Quoting Wingman (Reply 21):
It is inconceivable that anyone in his position would be allowed to remain in their job with even a shred of confidence from the employees, customers and investors.

Looks like the market is voting with its feet, Wingman. EADS shares have dropped E3.00 (around 8.5%) since the BAE/Daimler-Chrysler/Lagardere sell-off began yesterday.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5831 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 22):
Looks like the market is voting with its feet, Wingman. EADS shares have dropped E3.00 (around 8.5%) since the BAE/Daimler-Chrysler/Lagardere sell-off began yesterday.

That could also be construed as a stock correction because EADS shares have been unusually high for the past 3 weeks, and the current share price is comparable to the price at the start of March. The price has also been dropping steadily for > 5 days, so I doubt its just the BAE announcement yesterday.

But I have no idea what Forgard actually said, just to remain ontopic  Smile


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5671 times:

Quoting Wingman (Reply 20):
It is virtually impossible that Forgard actually said this in public. If he did he should be fired by his Board immediately. It is inconceivable that anyone in his position would be allowed to remain in their job with even a shred of confidence from the employees, customers and investors. I hope someone will publish the exact translation from the French piece. Just the brief snippet posted contains two absolute lies and one very misleading statement: 380 profitable from 2008-absolute lie, no delays on EK's 380's-an absolute lie either by Foregard or the customer...hmmmmm? Finally, first deliveries in "Spring" just like we originally said. That is hugely misleading unless EADS operates its manufacturing and delivery schedule according to the seasons. Next thing you know they will be delivering EK's planes when Saturn passes through the nexus of Cassiopeia and the high tide has receded from its highs between the hours of midnight and sunrise during the third week of the high summer season.

Somebody should tape Noël Forgeard's mouth, and do it soon. He is no longer a member of Airbus and should not be talking as he is. That is the job of Gustave Humbert.


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6484 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5631 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 25):
Somebody should tape Noël Forgeard's mouth, and do it soon. He is no longer a member of Airbus and should not be talking as he is. That is the job of Gustave Humbert.

How is that? He is Humbert's boss. He can tell Humbert to drink a nice cup of STFU, and Forgeard can speak for Airbus all he wants, especially if EADS buys the rest of Airbus (which is likely.)



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5622 times:

Well, lo and behold - here's what he said:-

"PARIS (AFX) - Noel Forgeard, co-CEO of the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co (EADS), still expects the Airbus A380 superjumbo programme to break even in 2007, and begin turning a profit from 2008, according to a report in French daily Les Echos.

'We will be sufficiently advanced on the profitability curve to be able to generate significant margins,' Forgeard told analysts during a conference call Wednesday, the report said.

"Forgeard had set the 2008 profitability target in January last year."


http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/04/07/afx2654537.html

There's an English expression (or maybe an Irish one, Poitin?) that best describes Forgeard's position. He's 'off with the fairies'..........



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offline787engineer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 572 posts, RR: 15
Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5577 times:

Hmmm I think the author of the article may have read more into Forgeard's quotes than was actually there. All he was quoted as saying is that by 2008 the planes will be making a profit, not that the whole program would break even. I'm sure with such a big aircraft and so many parts and procedures, it'll take 15-30 frames maybe a year or so to get everything in the assembly plant running smoothly, before then material/parts will be wasted, and they'll be working to meet the expected time to complete different procedures. Of course he could also mean that in 2008 the money recieved from deliveries would exceed the program cost divided over 20 years.

User currently offlineJoni From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5577 times:

I think he meant, that in 2008 they'll have the orders (300 or so) needed to breakeven. Those would then be delivered over the next years.

User currently offlineBreiz From France, joined Mar 2005, 1917 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5497 times:

Quoting Tigerotor77W (Reply 11):
But I'm confused about the disputing the claim -- how do we know that Airbus hasn't secured another 100 orders up its sleeve, just waiting, for, say, Farnborough (or whatever)?

Leahy said several times that he could have sold more A380 if the production output was higher.
Bragging or reality, time will show.


User currently offlinePITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3170 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 5456 times:

Quoting Aither (Reply 6):
The A380 is financed with the current cash flow.

No, it is financed largely by loans and gov't developement aid, which will hopefully be repaid in the long term with future income generated from deliveries.

Quoting Aither (Reply 6):
As soon as the A380 are delivered (when they receivie the payments), it's pure cash in EADS pockets.

Interesting accounting. Just wipe $12+ billion in developement costs off the balance sheets. By the way, are you available to file my taxes?



FLYi
User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 5426 times:

Quoting PITrules (Reply 32):
No, it is financed largely by loans and gov't developement aid, which will hopefully be repaid in the long term with future income generated from deliveries.



Quoting PITrules (Reply 32):
Interesting accounting. Just wipe $12+ billion in developement costs off the balance sheets. By the way, are you available to file my taxes?

Yay more falsehoods! 33% is 33% is 33%, no more, no less, and certainly not $12billion of the origional $13billion project cost (the extra $1.5billion overrun was financed wholely of Airbus).

And interesting enough, the 2008 recoup date was also prominent from Airbus as early as the 2005 January launch:

Quote:

Although the A380 project has run some $1.4 billion over budget, Airbus believes it will recoup its costs in 2008 and be an extremely profitable flagship product for decades to come.

Airbus chief Noel Forgeard told CNN the aircraft had already nearly covered its costs

From http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/01/18/airbus.380/index.html

*shrug*

[Edited 2006-04-07 19:05:20]

25 Poitin : No, lad, we merely say that "he's been into the Poitín". Others say that he's Bollocks, others use less polite wording. I am sure Gustave Humbert ha
26 PITrules : And $13 billion is $13 billion is $13 billion. OK, so even if Airbus covers 66% of the developement costs, it is still a COST which they must cover b
27 Leelaw : There's relatively little which has been capitalized on the balance sheet, as the lion's share of development costs are expensed as incurred.
28 RichardPrice : Sorry, I took both of your comments together rather than seperate. Yes, $13billion does need to be recouped but its not that far off of a possibility
29 Poitin : First and foremost, Humbert is CEO of Airbus. That means it is his job to talk about his company. Period. Second, Forgeard is shooting his mouth off
30 Post contains links Poitin : Richard, we do not know two important issues here. One is what Airbus charged for those first 159 airplanes, and second what it costs to build one in
31 Toulouse : A loose cannon that lead Airbus to its position is the world's number 1 civil aircraft manufacturer over the past few years, so depite his AWFUL Engl
32 Poitin : He is the genius who said "Put everything into the A380 and A400M" time and again, at the expense of the middle of the market. He is largely responsi
33 Ikramerica : Considering they haven't built or tested the A380F, they can't exactly count all 159 in the column. This is new math, nothing more. If it really was
34 N328KF : Huh? You don't get it. Humbert reports to Forgeard. That means Humbert can't do anything that Forgeard doesn't want him to do. We're in agreement on
35 RichardPrice : I agree, we have no idea and the first few were certainly sold at some sort of discount (but the margins on aircraft are a lot more than what people
36 Dougloid : One man's correction is another man's "everyone's buggering off!"....I do not put much faith in the up and downticks on the market-seems like it's a
37 Pbottenb : An extremely valid point that is rarely if ever brought up here...its pretty hard to argue with success....That said, the plane is still damn ugly (s
38 Tockeyhockey : before this turns into an "al gore said he invented the internet" kind of rumor, what the article says is that airbus is dropping their prices for th
39 Post contains images Glideslope : Airbus never has any risk. Thats the only reason they are around. Once again the hard working EU Taxpayer will foot the bailout. Again, and again, an
40 RichardPrice : Care to show when Airbus hasnt repayed any of the loans? Let me remind you British Government is on record saying they have made a tidy profit (retur
41 Poitin : I would be happy with real number for ANY A380. Not likely,are they?
42 Lehpron : That sentence translation is hard to follow. Hmm. Official EK statements, porported by articles and linked by A.net members with their perspective bi
43 Elvis777 : Hi RichardPrice, So if as you claim the British taxpayer received some monies for their loan I have a couple of questions- I am not a finance guy so p
44 NAV20 : Dead right. One can always speculate on the causes of any share-price slide. Though in this case the fact that all three of the large private-sector
45 PanAm_DC10 : A1: Yes, it will stop. Professional Traders "front running" for Hedge Funds and large Investment Banks can see a "no brainer" when presented with it
46 Post contains images Iwok : I suspect old Noel will be running into difficulties in the near future. iwok
47 Trex8 : unfortunately you will have trouble fiding out the actual details in terms of interest rates etc, though the launch aid in recent years has to be rep
48 RichardPrice : I have no idea as to the exact terms of the financing, but it is known that as well as interest on the origional sum, Airbus has to repay a royalty o
49 Dougloid : True. Although I do not own stock in anything, I'm a reasonably good judge of the character of people who fancy themselves traders. The world is full
50 NAV20 : Oddly enough, the only source of details of the terms of state aid appears to be the Gellman Report, which provides quite a lot of detail. Specifical
51 RichardPrice : As far as I know, those figures only apply to aid granted under the 1992 agreement (see my post above for the link that matches your figures), and th
52 Post contains links and images NAV20 : No problem, Richard. http://www.speednews.com/A380-CPA.pdf If it doesn't work, PM me with an email and I'll send it as an attachment.
53 Elvis777 : Hi RichardPrice, Thanks for the answer. I guess I will believe you when you say that it is a good deal for the British Taxpayer IF the returns are wha
54 BoomBoom : The amount of launch aid allowed under the 1992 agreement was 33%. That means that all the models built before 1992 (A300, A320, A330, A340) were not
55 Post contains images Poitin : Didn't I give this link TWICE before in this thread alone, NAV20, or am I getting old and forgetful? Maybe they will read it if you post it. Thanks.
56 Khobar : Does this include the amount of debt forgiveness involved in Airbus projects? Such financial arrangements are bound to skew the picture, no?
57 Post contains images RichardPrice : Source please As I said before, there has been absolutely no evidence for the 'debt forgiveness' or that Airbus doesnt have to repay if the project i
58 Post contains links Khobar : "For example, in 1997-1998 the German government entered into agreements with Deutsche Airbus to settle all outstanding debt that the company owed to
59 RichardPrice : The 1997 debt repayment was a deal to repay the debt 4 years early (the loans werent due to start repayments until 2001 and the German government was
60 Khobar : It doesn't have to have anything to do with RLI terms specifically, especially when judging it from Airbus' POV with regards to subsidies to Boeing a
61 Elvis777 : Debt forgiveness. That is a neat deal! To think I am still paying the grad school loans! The problem with debt forgivenss is that someone has to swall
62 NAV20 : One thing I can't find anywhere is the status of the loans. There's certainly no direct reference to them in the balance sheet. On the face of it, if
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