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Oil Is Going To Skyrocket  
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3204 posts, RR: 10
Posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 12811 times:

We'll folks,

It seems that the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran is dead set on developing a nuclear bomb.

They have just announced that they have successfully enriched Uranium, and that they are determined to work on the heavy water plant, which could potentially be used to produced plutonium.

So what does this mean for aviation? Simple, Oil prices are going to sky rocket as futures and options traders panic due to the simple fact that Iran is the world's 4th largest producer of oil, and any disruption to supply is going to have a major impact on the face of the planet.

Just yesterday, we heard Qantas claim that it was planning more reforms yet and we'd hear about them over the next few months, and the driving forces for this was largely higher oil prices. And now this... seems like it is even higher than people expected. So, this is going to have a global impact on all major airlines, and yet another shock to the system is definately going to lead to a reduced demand.

Cathay pacific earlier stated this year that it was rapidly running out of options to combat this problem, because if it raised prices any higher, it would significantly impact on its long haul demand. We all know the situation at the US majors all too well (maybe one of them will fall? maybe more than 1?) and it seems that some fundimental changes are going to have to be made, yet again!

So folks, what do you see happening? It looks almost certain that Iran will continue its program, and even if this doesn't result in a war, the threat of military action (and the potential threat iran poses) will almost certainly force the west to do something. War or no war, the threat posed to supply will drive oil prices higher.

So what can be done?
- fewer frequencies with larger aircraft (think 1 747 flight instead of 2 767 flights)
- eliminate RJ's with fewer frequency mainline jets
- replace A320 and 737 flights with fewer 767 and A330 flights
- the introduction of A380 services this year will help on some routes.

... this will help ease the price pressure due to the lower CASM of larger aircraft but the problem may see oil go to levels we have never yet experienced. Meaning that the CASM, even on the larger most efficient options like the 773, 744 and soon to be A380 are still going to have to be priced at a level that will cause significant reductions in demand.

So lets speculate? Forced mergers (im thinking SIA-QF, one single LH group, possible consolidation of DL/NW/AF/KL long haul etc? ) Because if you think last year was turbulent, think again, this year may be worse. So folks, what do u all think?

[Edited 2006-04-12 07:43:21]

147 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlightShadow From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 950 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 12788 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Thread starter):
So folks, what do u all think?

I know it's kinda bland...but when reading this, the only thing that pops into my head is "we're all screwed"

However, I remember reading a few months back that some guy had potentially found a huge oil supply in the Colorado/Utah (do they call it the "great basin"? trying to remember 4th grade...) area that would supply oil for many years to come. Haven't heard anything further about this though...which is kinda troubling  boggled 



"When the tide goes out, you can tell who was skinnydipping."
User currently offlineLH492 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 208 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 12741 times:

Maybe it is time to develop a new engine which uses for example hydrogen as fuel.
A few weeks back, I read an interview about this issue and there, some experts were asked about that very topic and they said that ther won´t be a new kind of engine within the next 15 years due to high developement costs.
If we don´t have 15 more years then maybe they should develope the new engine regardless the costs. I think if oil prises keep climbing the way they do now, a new developement won´t be much more expensive for the industrie than flying around with this extremely expensive stuff called oil.
But the main problem IMO is that new developements in aviation need a lot of time and therefore many airlines will get into serious trouble before something new will be available.
I hope this matter gets more attention in the future and maybe their is a sollution for this.

Cheers,
Philipp



Carpe Diem, Seize The Day
User currently offlineSeanp11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 12737 times:

Quoting LH492 (Reply 2):
Maybe it is time to develop a new engine which uses for example hydrogen as fuel.

But where are we going to get the energy to make the hydrogen? This problem stems deeper than it looks.


User currently offlineLH492 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 208 posts, RR: 11
Reply 4, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 12698 times:

Quoting Seanp11 (Reply 3):
But where are we going to get the energy to make the hydrogen? This problem stems deeper than it looks.

Yes, I am aware of that, I used this as an example but I know that there are many problems linked to that.
It is very tough to find an alternative fuel for airplanes but in the end we will be forced to find a sollution otherwise aviation will face a terrible time.
BTW Seanp11, I know that my reply sounds a little harsh but it is not meant that way, I just don´t know how to express my self a different way  Big grin

cheers,
Philipp



Carpe Diem, Seize The Day
User currently offlineANother From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 12598 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Thread starter):
So lets speculate? Forced mergers (im thinking SIA-QF, one single LH group, possible consolidation of DL/NW/AF/KL long haul etc? ) Because if you think last year was turbulent, think again, this year may be worse. So folks, what do u all think?

IMHO my greatgrandchildren won't see a change to the archaic ownership and control rules which govern our industry. Sad , but true.


User currently offlineLindy Field From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 3116 posts, RR: 14
Reply 6, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 12574 times:
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I think the outlook is particularly grim for airlines in the United States. The last five years have been absolutely terrible for the legacy carriers in the US, even though the economy has been growing and load factors have been quite good. What happens when the economy slows down and passenger numbers decrease? I suspect that a deep recession is coming in the US. The housing market is cooling off, interest rates are rising, energy prices are going up - this will ultimately have an impact on consumer spending. An oil shock will just hasten the inevitable. When this happens, passenger numbers will decrease and I suspect that the some of the US legacy carriers, already weakened, will go belly-up.

User currently offlineZkpilot From New Zealand, joined Mar 2006, 4805 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 12534 times:

I'm just curious and will pose this question to anyone who might care to answer if it is even viable... Years ago people used to travel in Airships and that all but stopped with the Hindenburg tragedy... Ok so that was hydrogen. Now blimps etc use helium which is much safer...
What are the lifting properties of helium? Would it be viable to design aircraft (or modify aircraft) to have empty voids (ie in the roof of B747, A380, B777 etc and other unused areas in the holds etc) filled with helium? Would this not allow the aircraft to a) use less power and fuel on takeoff, b) use less power maintaining altitude during the cruise as its lift is supplemented by the helium without any extra drag.? Eg on a 747 with unused spaces filled with helium, if that could provide 30,000kg (66,000lbs) of lift, would that not over say a 12 hour flight save approx 20-40,000kg of fuel (less fuel needed to carry fuel, less fuel needed for lift, less drag, better payload) ?
It would be safe, completely reusable (would be permanently in the a/c), and I don't think it would cost much to implement...
just wondering what everyone else thinks and how viable would it be?  Smile



56 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
User currently offlineSebolino From France, joined May 2001, 3681 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 12411 times:

Quoting Seanp11 (Reply 3):
But where are we going to get the energy to make the hydrogen? This problem stems deeper than it looks.

All the energy available on earth comes from the sun, from a way or another, except nuclear, which comes from earlier times.

So instead of using oil, made out of animals and vegetables grown with solar energy, we will just use 1) nuclear power for countries which allow it 2) Solar energy in other forms (i.e. wind, photoelectric power, vegetable oil).

Edit: I forgot Tidal energy which comes partly from the moon, and possibly other sources ...

[Edited 2006-04-12 11:40:16]

User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8060 posts, RR: 54
Reply 9, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12396 times:

Quoting Seanp11 (Reply 3):
But where are we going to get the energy to make the hydrogen? This problem stems deeper than it looks.

Hydrogen power is 50 years off, or more. I'm always amazed by how many people think hydrogen is going to replace fossil fuels. The technology just ain't there, and never will be.

Quoting ANother (Reply 5):
IMHO my greatgrandchildren won't see a change to the archaic ownership and control rules which govern our industry. Sad , but true.

Your grandchildren will never fly, babes. Never mind ownership rules, planes will only be useful post-oil as places to live in.

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 8):
we will just use 1) nuclear power for countries which allow it 2) Solar energy in other forms (i.e. wind, photoelectric power, vegetable oil).

Absolutely wrong. How are you going to get nuclear material out of the ground in Australia and ship it to France without lots of fossil fuel? See also: You can't make a wind turbine using wind power.



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineDispatchguy From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1249 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12386 times:

Quoting FlightShadow (Reply 1):
However, I remember reading a few months back that some guy had potentially found a huge oil supply in the Colorado/Utah (do they call it the "great basin"? trying to remember 4th grade...) area that would supply oil for many years to come. Haven't heard anything further about this though...which is kinda troubling

I hadnt heard that; which doesnt mean anything in an of itself; however, I would be willing to bet that it'll be 20+ years before they are able to extract the first "production" drop of oil due to the environmentalist groups will come to the defense of some banana slug, or something like it.

Look at ANWAR...



Nobody screws you better than an airline job!
User currently offlineSebolino From France, joined May 2001, 3681 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12380 times:

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 9):
Absolutely wrong. How are you going to get nuclear material out of the ground in Australia and ship it to France without lots of fossil fuel? See also: You can't make a wind turbine using wind power.

I don't get your point.
What is "absolutely wrong" ?

Nuclear power is used, wind power is used, photoelectric power is used, bio-fuel is already used.

You can't make a wind turbine using wind power

This sentence is a real mistery ...


User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8060 posts, RR: 54
Reply 12, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12360 times:

What I'm saying is, all the much-vaunted "alternatives" are entirely reliant upon fossil fuels (I already explained how this applies to nuclear power - mining and transporting nuclear fuel can't be achieved unless you have access to cheap oil). I think "You can't make a wind turbine using wind power" is entirely self-explanatory - to mine the metal, turn it into a set of giant blades, transport them hundreds or thousands of miles, stick them in the ground, all takes tonnes of energy, the likes of which cannot be generated by wind power. Therefore, while a wind turbine will generate some electricity after it is in situ, it takes something of a higher order of magnitude to build and install it in the first place, ie, oil.

[Edited 2006-04-12 11:59:35]


fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineARGinLON From Vatican City, joined Jun 2005, 614 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12360 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Thread starter):
It seems that the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran is dead set on developing a nuclear bomb.

A bomb???? He never said that!! I watched BBC news last night and they never mentioned that... What do you watch? FOX news?  Smile


User currently offlineClassicLover From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 4627 posts, RR: 23
Reply 14, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12360 times:

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 9):
Hydrogen power is 50 years off, or more. I'm always amazed by how many people think hydrogen is going to replace fossil fuels. The technology just ain't there, and never will be.

50 years off or more / then you say never will be. Which is it?

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 9):
Your grandchildren will never fly, babes. Never mind ownership rules, planes will only be useful post-oil as places to live in.

I am sure you were one of those in times before flight who said man will never fly  Smile

You presume that the human race won't adapt like it always has in the past. Interesting.

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 9):
Absolutely wrong. How are you going to get nuclear material out of the ground in Australia and ship it to France without lots of fossil fuel? See also: You can't make a wind turbine using wind power.

Well shipping it to France is easy, you stick it into a sailing boat.  Smile ...



I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12323 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Thread starter):
So what can be done?
- fewer frequencies with larger aircraft (think 1 747 flight instead of 2 767 flights)
- eliminate RJ's with fewer frequency mainline jets
- replace A320 and 737 flights with fewer 767 and A330 flights
- the introduction of A380 services this year will help on some routes

Sensible solution: use more fuel efficient aircraft (usually larger aircraft at a lower frequency). The current US domestic model seems to show that high frequency + high fuel prices = high losses

Quoting LH492 (Reply 2):
Maybe it is time to develop a new engine which uses for example hydrogen as fuel.

I think the interim solution is to re-work the way we produce energy and to use existing hydrocarbons more appropriately. For example, the calorific content/weight characteristics of fuel are not critical to generating electricity. It does not matter so much if you have to move 2x tons of fuel from A to B to generate electricity (eg coal) instead of x tons of fuel with a higher calorific value (eg crude oil based fuel) whereas the weight of fuel needed to get an aircraft from A to B is critical.

On that tack, I don't think it is so clever to encourage oil producing countries to burn oil to produce electricity. I include Iran.

[Edited 2006-04-12 12:16:51]

User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8060 posts, RR: 54
Reply 16, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12301 times:

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 14):
50 years off or more / then you say never will be. Which is it?

I personally think never. There's no way it'll be a substitute for oil, it won't arrive in time (ie in the next decade). If we had started getting ready for a post-oil world after the 73 oil shocks then we would be in much better shape. But for Reagan it was morning in America again, and off we went, burning our way through the non-renewable resource that sustains all of us in every way you can think of. People say Clinton will be remembered well, and for a while I believed it, but now I realise how badly he missed the last chance we had for a sustainable life for all of us. Now we are out of time, and W and his oil cronies will keep it thus.

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 14):
I am sure you were one of those in times before flight who said man will never fly. You presume that the human race won't adapt like it always has in the past. Interesting.

Hey come on, man knew how to fly for centuries, we just didn't have the propulsion. The same applies to the future as it does to the past - without jet fuel, a 787 is just a big paperweight. I'm not saying we'll forget the technology, and of course people will be able to go hang-gliding (in between farming 18 hours a day) etc, and maybe there will be a few ethanol-powered planes. People just have no idea how much bang for buck oil gives us, and how there really isn't anything else available to us that is in the same ballpark (also, oil just comes straight out of the ground, you don't have to grow crops or refridgerate it to -200 deg C like ethanol or hydrogen). Right now, in a cheap-oil world, it's like we all have hundreds of slaves working for us, for free. At our present rate of consumption, all the oil in the world will be gone by 2037. However demand is rising fast so actually the end would come sooner, but for the fact that most of what's left isn't that easy to get so the cost of extraction and refinery will be much higher than what we've used so far.

Let me put it this way: the use of oil by humans, when charted on a graph, looks like the Washington Monument. Scary though our immediate future is, I guarantee you will search the web in vain for anything that contradicts my bleak forecast. We really are in a lot of trouble, and it's like an open secret that is freely available to anyone who wants to know.

(And forget the Canadian oil sands! It isn't even oil! It might keep the US military on it's feet for an extra couple of years but if you think some bitumen thousands of feet under the Canadian wilderness is going to make it possible for us all to drive cars and get food delivered from other continents to our local supermarkets, you will wait in vain.)



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineJoni From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 12220 times:

Could permanently high oil prices undercut the growth pattern that's existed in air travel over the past decades? Remember how air travel was been predicted to double over the next few decades, which was supposed to create demand for all those A380s, sonic cruisers and B787s.

Personally I'm one of the people who think that a nuclear-armed (or, capable of building nuclear weapons) Iran might be a good thing, or at least not such a disaster people think.

Think of it, if you were Iran and you were surrounded by

1) a nuclear-armed pakistan
2) a nuclear-armed Israel that is very hostile toward you
3) US ground troops in 2 neighbouring countries (Afganistan and Iraq) with an unpredictable and hostile regime in Washington.

what would you feel like, security-wise? Add to the mix that your country is one of the richest in the world, then it somehow feels obvious that they would (and should) explore their options. If then had either a nuclear deterrent or an ability to produce one if need arose, it could increase stability in the region as they wouldn't feel so threatened.

N.B. a similar effect could also be gained if Israel verifiably were to dismantle its own arsenal.

If Iran felt secure, there would be no risk of a new Gulf War and oil could flow freely. However you can't help but get the feeling that there are clouds gathering in the horizon for air travel, since not only is oil demand going to be high in the future as production will begin to decline, but also environmental factors will limit how much can be burned at all.


User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8060 posts, RR: 54
Reply 18, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 12208 times:

Quoting Joni (Reply 17):
If Iran felt secure, there would be no risk of a new Gulf War and oil could flow freely.

Iran's security is not the issue. While I'm sure the US and the West's hyprocritical one-rule-for-Israel-and-another-rule-for-everyone-else undermines security and stability everywhere, and if I was Iran I would be scrambling as fast as I could to get my hands on The Bomb (as you say, a hostile and heavily nuked-up Israel, US forces on both sides ie Iraq and Afganistan), the real problem is that we are running out of oil.

(As funk heroes Tower Of Power told us back in the 70s, on their track There's Only So Much Oil In The Ground: "I can't cut loose / Without that juice.")



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineANother From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 12080 times:

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 18):
Iran's security is not the issue.

No? I would have thought that was key. As long as the so-called 'nuclear powers' hang onto their weapons, others will want to join the club. As I pointed out in another thread - America does not attack countries that have nuclear weapons. If Iran has them they think they are secure.


User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8060 posts, RR: 54
Reply 20, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 12017 times:

Quoting ANother (Reply 19):
As long as the so-called 'nuclear powers' hang onto their weapons, others will want to join the club. As I pointed out in another thread - America does not attack countries that have nuclear weapons. If Iran has them they think they are secure.

Of course you're right, Iran's security is important and that's why they want The Bomb. But in terms of oil prices, Iran's security isn't an issue, the issue is how little oil is left. Iran can blow up Israel or instead convert to free market capitalist democracy, or any shade inbetween, but it won't change the fact that we'll be all out of oil in about 30 years, and the price of the stuff will have risen long before then to the level that will kill aviation, private motoring, any business with a supply chain of more than a few miles, maybe even the whole concept of the nation-state (which didn't exist before oil after all). No more oil, no more America, no more Iran, no more Israel, etc.



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8060 posts, RR: 54
Reply 21, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 12017 times:

No more Bomb either, by the way.


fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineSebolino From France, joined May 2001, 3681 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 11989 times:

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 12):
Therefore, while a wind turbine will generate some electricity after it is in situ, it takes something of a higher order of magnitude to build and install it in the first place, ie, oil.

Sorry, but all your theory is flawed.
Basically, you're saying that it's impossible to produce energy without the help of oil. And you're saying then that it was impossible to dig the first derrick to have oil, and then we have no oil.

Magnificient demonstration !!!


Seriously, you're wrong.

We can use electric engines or alcohol engines instead of gasoline engines, saying the opposite denotes a bias in favour of oil. And then the system is auto-feeded with "green" electricity + bio-gas.
In Brasil, agricultural planes fly with alcohol already.


User currently offlineYak42 From Ireland, joined Oct 2000, 801 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 11946 times:

Even without the impetus of rocketing oil prices, the US is primed for massive recession. Economists are predicting that the Bush governments economic planning is inept and totally unsustainable. The massive budget deficit and huge consumer debt through mortgages and other initially cheap credit becoming more expensive to service will become unsustainable within the near future as China and Japan will become more reluctant to keep lending and interest rate hikes will cause widespread defaults. A US economic implosion will cause recession for all its major trading partners and beyond, thus the demand for oil will fall significantly making it less of an issue for the near future.

User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 24, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 11931 times:

Geothermal to produce electricity for free apart from operating and maintainability costs. Use the electricity to perform a hydrolysis on a large lake river or ocean front to produce hydrogen gas. Go from there. But there is an infrastructural issue, which means loads of R&D, which may take decades to establish an equilibrium with the demands of the world - we better start now.

At least this way we don't use fossil fuel, nuclear, solar, or wind energy. I don't know too much about tidal energy to comment.



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
25 Post contains links and images Lumberton : This is a good thread on which to plug Dr. Alex Kuhlman's article on "Peak Oil", right here on a.net. Here's the link. http://www.airliners.net/articl
26 StealthZ : That part is a no brainer, a modern gas turbine engine can run on almost anything flammable that can be injected into the combustion chamber.. rangin
27 Post contains images Bmacleod : Surprising being European you would share the Bush Administration's view on this. Are you really from Switzerland? So bigger is better is that it? Wh
28 Cedarjet : Probably fleet decisions made without factoring in the future cost of oil. There's no way a pair of MD80s is more efficient than a single 767. Ditto
29 Joni : Iran's security isn't a factor in the basic question of are we going to run out of oil, but it can be a factor in is oil going to cost USD50 per barre
30 TAN FLYR : I do not agree with your guess of the American economy. While you do make some points about consumer debt, etc., I doubt we are headed to a "massive
31 Mason : The oil in Colorado and Utah is called shale oil, and is very expensive to purify and refine. At least at this point, the cost of processing it would
32 Seanp11 : The best way one can look at oil shales/sands is that it is the biological matter that makes oil, but hasn't cooked long enough beneath the earth's s
33 NYCFlyer : what about sugar-based ethanol, which the Brazilians have successfully mixed into their gasoline? can anything similar be done for jet fuel? there mus
34 Crosscountry : I think we're all getting a bit to worried about this Iran stuff Its being stoked up by a media desperate to inspire panic to build ratings (see bird
35 Seanp11 : I believe they are working on biofuels for jets. I think one of the biggest problems they are having is making them gel at the same temps as jet-a, b
36 F9Animal : And the war continues. Guess we will see Iran as the next "Evil doers". This world is seriously F*c*ed!
37 N730AS : As someone mentioned earlier, exploration in ANWR (Alaska National Wildlife Refuge) may bring us a good supply of oil for some time (some estimate tha
38 Lumberton : I referenced Dr. Kuhlman's article in Reply #25. Here is a quote from the article on the worst case scenario. What to do?
39 Galapagapop : Problem is the solution(s) are out there but try convincing the economies of the world of that. Not to mention the US. The US economy still benefits g
40 Oroka : Time for an alternitive fuel source to keep those SUVs and big trucks running. Cause you know, those housewifes, and guys who work in an office need t
41 FlyDreamliner : Good luck with that one...right now it takes more fossil fuel energy to create hydrogen fuel than burning it produces. That and hydrogen is beyond vo
42 Bmacleod : The Internet, new communication technology and other current inventions have prevented our world from becoming "large" again.
43 Lumberton : Remember, I'm quoting from an article written by someone else, so he should receive due credit for his ideas. Dr. Kuhlman notes that any solution mus
44 N730AS : Look at the trend in Germany, everone drives a VW TDI... I sure hope that this oil crisis does not spell the end of aviation as we know it today. It s
45 Galapagapop : What I wouldn't do to get one of those, love diesel cars, always have.
46 Sydscott : Humbug!! I haven't heard 1 person here ask the real question which is controlling this oil crisis which is, "at what point will I change my current d
47 Post contains links Tockeyhockey : recent research into switch grass suggests that it may soon be on a par with oil in terms of abundance and the "energy in/energy out" ratio. if we ca
48 Kdeg00 : The rhetoric is becoming a bit rediculous...Iran is enriching uranium, a necessary step in the production of fuel for nuclear power plants. Every cou
49 Post contains links Pbottenb : The sky will not fall...If you look at the oil sands and shale deposits in the US, Canada and Venezuela there is plenty of hydrocarbon based energy t
50 Seanp11 : As I said earlier, Oil Sands/Shale require more energy to refine it than convential crude. And that energy comes from fossil fuels most of the time.
51 Seanp11 : I think a more apt way to think of it would be turning a garden hose on a wildfire. It might help a bit, but the problem is still there. And the pric
52 Dallasnewark : People, the sky is not falling. Oil is overpriced at it's current state, you're looking close to $20 premium per barrel. Also, our president is an oil
53 Mutu : Dr Kuhlmans article makes fearful reading indeed for aviation as we know it. But I guess we need some context. In the economic armageddon, as we trans
54 ACJAZZAME : by the way your brother to the north is spelled CANADA!!!
55 Post contains images BigJimFX : I don't see wht the big deal is.... Bird Flu's gonna kill us all before oil becomes a problem!
56 Post contains links and images Desh : Yes some of it is hype - there is no way to explain how in times of supply shortfall, oil companies have not only made record profit but also managed
57 Flyorski : Even if the shale oil could profitably be used, it would power not the U.S. for even one day (much less the rest of the world). The solution is to fi
58 Post contains links Flyorski : http://www.sweden.se/templates/cs/Article____14363.aspx Here is the link to the article about the train is Sweden.
59 Post contains images Desh : Is this what I think it is ? Maybe its time to get beans back on every dinner table throughout the world
60 Congaboy : This is correct, IMHO. THere is no true shortage, and we are still many years from exhausting oil supplies. Only hurting the American pocket-book wil
61 Golftango : We have a winner!
62 M404 : According to statements made on a report about Canada's boom in oil sands at Fort McMurray gas has to sell at $3.00 a gal to make it doable. I would a
63 Lumberton : Agreed that $3.00 per gallon would be worth it to avoid dependence from only a few sources. However, can the oil sands sustain demand in Canada, the
64 Mich : Exxon made 400 billion $ and is number 1 now. Where are the gas lines and out of gas signs? Have to wonder when the wells do dry up what these countri
65 N730AS : The area that the oil development would take place is about 1/10 of 1% of the whole area. Its the equivalent of a pinpoint on a map where they want t
66 YAK42 : Far from it. They have a hand of aces whicher way you look at it. Their oil wont dry up completely for the forseable future, just decline in output.
67 GQfluffy : 15 years ago while just begining grammer school, I was told we'd be out of oil about 20 years from now. Now I hear we'll be out of oil 20 years from n
68 Bphendri : I completely agree, I do not belive anything said by our government, or our media any longer. Everything the government is doing these days is only b
69 NorthStarDC4M : i was going to post a long one in here, but decided not to. The sky is falling people will never be convinced of anything. Oil isnt going to stop flow
70 N730AS : I totally agree with you. It sickens me to think that the media controls a whole country...they decide whats fashionable, what to eat, what to drive.
71 ZOTAN : I didn't take the time to read every single response, but I can tell the general idea is that the world is going to implode on itself by the end of th
72 Deputydawghere : Very true. I was in a Finance meeting last year and the topic of increased oil prices came to the table, for obvious reasons. The CFO stated China's
73 Dallasnewark : Actually, EXXON's profit were $36 billion dollars last year, that's larger than the national budget of most of the countries in the world. The thing
74 Simpilicity : maybe if we all stopped driving our big tank 4 wheel drives to the corner store, then deamnd for fuel might drop a bit & prices might drop. It seems
75 Mham001 : Thats news. What has Isreal done to threaten Iran into needing a nuclear weapon? [quote=Yak42,reply=23]Even without the impetus of rocketing oil pric
76 Dallasnewark : Don't pay any attention to him. His ability to comprehend budget deficits and the economy as a whole rivals my labrador. I guess, too much yellow pre
77 Antiuser : The thing is, Brazil's ethanol program only took off because of massive government investments and pressure after the 1973 oil crisis. This all happe
78 Post contains images Incitatus : That may not be a good idea. It could cause a wave of spontaneous combustion! I agree the price of oil is hype. All it takes to move it is early snow
79 Lufthansa : Guys back on topic. the point has nothing to do with the morality of iran getting a bomb, or china's increase in demand. The point is the FEAR of a re
80 Sydscott : Well what exactly are you going to do to change the system then apart from rant on an aviation board?? Put up or shut up. No it's supply and demand e
81 Magyar : Sir, (or Madame) I am aware of the fact that the above comments are not politically correct in certain countries, but there is no need to overact hyp
82 Kubus : What's oil? Seriously what is it? I have an 02 explorer that I imported from US, it's been converted to run on LPG. I am yet to fill it up with gasoli
83 Galapagapop : Thats just your states indicator for the future of gas prices in the country. Your gas hits pumps sooner than gas pilled up and sold and sent north,
84 RayChuang : I think OPEC should start worrying about trying to keep the price of oil high. The reason is simple: by the laws of economics, high prices simultaneou
85 N62NA : NJ has lots of refineries. Just take a flight to EWR and drive around the area. Bayonne is a major refinery town. In fact, the sad thing is, most peo
86 StealthZ : There is NO free lunch.. to store enough energy in compressed air to move a motor vehicle, a somewhat greater amount of energy has to be expended els
87 Scalebuilder : Increase in demand over supply I see as the reason for the general increase in oil prices, primarily in the long term. The spikes in prices that you
88 Simpilicity : With a reasonable quality impact resistant wall between tanks & pax compartment, maybe made of kevlar, it would be quite safe. Brilliant idea ... hop
89 F9Animal : So if we go into Iran and remove the evil doers, and wipe out the problems and take out the terrorists...... What excuses will OPEC and the oil compan
90 StealthZ : I don't think they need to.. I am all for encouraging good ideas but the this one does not survive the reality test!
91 Post contains links Kdtwflyer : This may spur further thought and examination... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_energy_development
92 N844AA : Sure, but I think the point it's a high-density source of energy that is presently capable of powering an automobile quite well. If the source for th
93 MCIGuy : Oh, colossal miscalculation. The B-2A/ALCM combo alone is quite deadly, even against another nuclear power. The powers that be in DC know this and I
94 ANother : You don't think it might be EXXON, do you? Yes, but do the powers that be in Iran know this? Do you actually think that the US would send ground troo
95 Joni : For one, Sharon has publicly pressured the US to invade Iran "the day after Iraq". Similarly they've made it clear repeatedly that they are extremely
96 Simpilicity : Seeing is believing. They're past prototype stage & into production in France. In the TV programme, they took it for a test drive. It was no perferma
97 Planemaker : You are absolutely one of the very, very few apart from Iranians. Just in case you don't know, the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeate
98 StarGoldLHR : Oh ball and thunder were all going to Die..... ahhhhh whats the point in this thread ?? Mass Hysteria ? What did we all do before planes... Sail / Tra
99 Semsem : I think air fares will become very expensive and that we will go back to the 1950s when only the wealthy could take the plane. Joni do me a favour and
100 Cedarjet : I'm with Joni. The idea of Israel making any kind of contribution to world peace would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.
101 YAK42 : Wow, you really think that the US economy is indestructable. Im not taking sides against the US or envious of the US economy in some way at all. Neit
102 WorldTraveler : There is a lot of hysteria and a lack of fact and science in the conclusions being drawn here. Aviation is perhaps the best candidate for using oil of
103 Mbird139 : What economists are saying this??? What is your solution???
104 YAK42 : Wowee!! The thoughts of a neo-con hawk (or at least the follower of such) unashamedly laid bare! Bizarre! I think the future of aviation with vastly
105 AirFrnt : Wow... People. Stop.And.Take.A.Breath.... Breath.... Now think... There is a phenominal amount of "oil" locked up in the area around Colorado. Enough
106 Sydscott : Which is why I included it as a contributing factor but ask yourself this question. "Why is the market fearful about supply?" The fear the market has
107 Art : Disagree about the pure and simple aspect. OPEC has on many occasions increased production with the intention of reducing the price of crude. I don't
108 TAN FLYR : Partially correct..In the US though we have a refining problem..lack of capacity. We currently import about 1.5-2 million barrels worth of refined pr
109 Desh : ITs not supply and demand economics in a true sense , with OPEC its more of a monoploy market where in supply is very tightly controlled - till the t
110 Post contains links Planemaker : You may be talking about this vehicle... "After twelve years of reserch and development, Guy Negre has developed an engine that could become one of t
111 Post contains links YAK42 : http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3377795.stm http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3446249 http://www.moneyweek.com/file/5533
112 Post contains links Halibut : Unbeilable Joni, I love how you continuely defend & give the benefit of the doubt to evil dictators like Saddam who has killed hundreds of thousands
113 YAK42 : " target=_blank>http://www.airliners.net/discussions...37650 Evil regimes? As they say thats like the pot calling the kettle black. Saddams regime may
114 Post contains links Halibut : I really don't have much time for this . But I must say you are way off young man ! The US economy is strong & consistant . And , may I add , preform
115 Post contains links Halibut : These oil threads always flushes out the extremists ! http://www.townhall.com/opinion/colu...homassowell/2003/05/20/169948.html Useful idiots The term
116 Post contains images DavidYYC : I really find these posts of doom and gloom about oil prices going high or even better, oil running out in 20years, so surprising. I think its a consp
117 Art : You don't appear to query what Joni says here, so I presume that you accept his account as being factual. If you believe that the facts lend support
118 Sydscott : hahahaha Is that website directly linked to the GOP or what?? Seriously the term useful idiots could easily also be applied to the more than 80% of A
119 Pacific777 : I think that oil will go up however the world will quickly change to adjust. More expensive oil deposits will become viable to refine. The premium for
120 Post contains images RayChuang : Pacific777, I think China and India maybe places where production of biodiesel from oil-laden algae might become useful and viable. The reason is simp
121 Semsem : Cedarjet it's not surprising you are with Joni based on your name. Mabrouk.
122 Art : Sh*t scared! I think this is something that citizens of countries that have not been invaded cannot grasp. Best example I can think of is the USSR po
123 Joni : How is Iran the aggressor here? IMO the US has recently invaded both Afganistan and Iraq whereas I can't even remember when Iran would last have inva
124 Post contains links Halibut : Are you joking ? The Hostage crisis ! The Iranian gov, held US citizens hostage for over a year . Iran is the world's largest state sponser of Terror
125 DeltaDC9 : Hello, I have never had a reason to post here but this thread is just TOO MUCH! Joni, Western Europe does not have a higher quality of life that the U
126 StealthZ : Are you kidding me.. this quote from "theaircar.com" "One of the most frequently asked questions is about the safety of the compressed air storage ta
127 Post contains links Joni : Naturally I agree that the hostage scene at the US embassy was a violation of international law and the world would have been better off if it hadn't
128 DeltaDC9 : Every post I have read by you for a long time has contained at least one uncalled for swipe at the government, Boeing, US culture, the political beli
129 Joni : Really now, could you point out a few such "swipes"?
130 StarGoldLHR : This post is about A V I A T I O N... Not Iran, Iraq, Israel (not Isreal), China, Colorado or Nuclear Power. Iran and the US are not going to goto war
131 DeltaDC9 : I just pointed out a multiple volley from this thread. In fact, why even bother with other threads? Does 1979 ring a bell? What have we ever done to
132 Post contains links Sydscott : You don't think it would be better to try and engage them when they're not making waves and reward them for not doing so?? When last I looked Iran wa
133 Scalebuilder : I certainly recognize the role of OPEC, and the ability for this organization to control prices. Not every oil producing nation is a true member thou
134 DeltaDC9 : Never said that, I was talking form a more general political perspective. Personally, I have always hoped clearer heads would prevail in Iran. There
135 Post contains links Halibut : DeltaDC9, Joni, simply is envious of the US , his bias makes him blind . He sees things one way , & that's his way . I know Joni is a good person at
136 Art : OK, that's straightforward (and a lot more open than Iran was about pursuing a civil nuclear programme). It does, however, beg the question: is there
137 Semsem : Halibut if this were 1939, posters like Joni would be saying that we must negotiate with Nazi Germany and Hitler. In fact Joni's country did just that
138 Sydscott : The other countries you mentioned aren't showing concern over Irans ability to make a nuclear bomb and they are certainly not threatening them. Every
139 Mham001 : Like I originally said, typically Euro to claim US doom. Most of those links are 12-18 months old and already proven wrong. The others are riddled wi
140 ER757 : A very overly optimistic view of how much oil's in ANWR. Most realistic estimates are that it would supply at most 2% of the USA's oil needs and it w
141 Post contains links and images Halibut : Here we go again . More bias BS from Sydscott ! And by the way , that is more utter nonsense ! http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-03-30-iran-nuc
142 Scalebuilder : Amen!!
143 Sydscott : I'm not even going to attempt to write anything meaningful in response to a post that can best be described as purile and childish from someone who r
144 Joni : Could you be more explicit, and what exactly do you mean by "swipe" to begin with? Is it a swipe to mention that the US funded the Contras in Nicarag
145 Halibut : I haven't seen your boy OBL basking in the sun drinking cocktails lately ! He's stuck in a cave in one of the most remote parts of the world , scared
146 Joni : What you're doing is refusing to discuss US policies (or, more exactly, the Bush administration's policies) by labeling people who disagree with you
147 Horus : Clearly this thread has digressed from the the discussion of civil aviation matters and as a result will be locked. In the future remember this forum
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