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JetBlue Seen Slowing Growth In Face Of Challenges  
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 5 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 5720 times:

JetBlue Airways may "modestly retard its growth" through retirement of its oldest aircraft or deferrals of new deliveries and could make an announcement to that effect as early as next week, JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker speculated in a report released Monday.

http://atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=4754

72 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9642 posts, RR: 52
Reply 1, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 5644 times:

Retiring its oldest aircraft?!? That sounds pretty bad when they have so many A320s on order. It does look like jetBlue expanded wildly as it rapidly grew a new market segment, however now that their initial expansion is over, they are getting into new markets and facing problems. Hopefully jetBlue will continue to succeed, but it does have a lot of airplanes on order. I'm not an expert on airplane purchasing, but if they have to retire 5 year old planes in order to slow growth while taking new delivery of planes, I would question investing in jetBlue. Now Singapore Airlines does this, but I haven't seen any other airline retire such new airplanes.


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineAkjetBlue From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 790 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days ago) and read 5587 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
JetBlue Airways may "modestly retard its growth" through retirement of its oldest aircraft or deferrals of new deliveries and could make an announcement to that effect as early as next week, JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker speculated in a report released Monday.

*Note it says "speculated"

This is not a news report, this is speculation, just as everyone speculated the end of NW and DL, the merger of FL and Midwest, the fact that the A380 wouldn't fly or that no one would buy it, and of course there is the forever speculated retirement of the NW DC-9, do i really need to continue?

Just take everything you read with a grain of salt and remember that not everything you read is truth.

We're in an industry where the only constant is change, and everyone is always adapting.



Save a horse! Ride a Cowboy!
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days ago) and read 5580 times:

Quoting AkjetBlue (Reply 2):
Just take everything you read with a grain of salt and remember that not everything you read is truth.

Who says I don't, I merely posted an interesting item I found.


User currently offlineB777a340fan From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 774 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days ago) and read 5566 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
retirement of its oldest aircraft

 Confused  Confused  Confused B6's aircrafts aren't "old". I thought they were one of the youngest in the market?

On a side note, has anyone tried to book a ticket on B6's website lately? The fares are through the roof!!! I thought it was a LCC? I ended up buying tix on UAL for $150 less a piece. Wow!


User currently offlineMaartenV From Netherlands, joined Aug 2005, 271 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days ago) and read 5559 times:

Let's assume they do get rid of some of the older A320s. Are they leased or owned? It shouldn't be hard to sell or place them with another airline, since the demand for second hand modern narrowbodies seems to be pretty high. Just look at how quick all the ex-Indy A319s were placed.


Its all about supply and demand...
User currently offlineAkjetBlue From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 790 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days ago) and read 5548 times:

Quoting B777a340fan (Reply 4):
On a side note, has anyone tried to book a ticket on B6's website lately? The fares are through the roof!!! I thought it was a LCC? I ended up buying tix on UAL for $150 less a piece. Wow!

The Fare Bucket System!

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 3):
Who says I don't, I merely posted an interesting item I found.

Sorry, no offense meant, I was actually replying more to RoseFlyer's assumption that things were getting bad. Just didn't want everyone to think that there had been an "announcement" that we were selling our old airplanes for new ones. Some on here take everything they read on here for fact. Again appologies, no offense meant.



Save a horse! Ride a Cowboy!
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days ago) and read 5523 times:

Quoting AkjetBlue (Reply 6):
Again appologies, no offense meant.

Sorry, I misunderstood your intent...no apology is necessary.


User currently offlineCongaboy From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 352 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (8 years 5 months 6 days ago) and read 5474 times:

Yea, I read this earlier today as well, Leelaw. Not surprising that "Analysts" would speculate a slowing. It seems obvious that B6 would consider this. What I am struggling with is Neeleman's strategy. Two things that deviate from the LCC model he helped develop:
1/ Rapid expansion through new cities and acquiring aircraft
2/ Introducing two aircraft types...while the Embraers are rather economical and right-sized for given markets, you still have the costs associated with crews, mechanics, parts, etc.

I think they need to pull back, and they should have done this as soon as oil started spiking. Now they take a more defensive posture, which will be interesting because that is out of character for what we have seen from B6.



"Joey, you like movies about gladiators?"
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5389 times:

Humm, I suspect that they retire these birds to forgo mx issues that are coming up on these birds.


One Nation Under God
User currently onlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6764 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 5331 times:

Quoting AkjetBlue (Reply 2):
This is not a news report, this is speculation, just as everyone speculated the end of NW and DL, the merger of FL and Midwest, the fact that the A380 wouldn't fly or that no one would buy it, and of course there is the forever speculated retirement of the NW DC-9, do i really need to continue?

But there is an enormous difference between the speculation of random, uninformed posters on web sites like this one and an analyst report. Only the news item itself says that Jamie Baker "speculated" -- we haven't seen the actual report. Moreover, JBLU's management has specifically raised the possibility of slowing growth by deferring deliveries and/or retiring older aircraft.


User currently offlineSupa7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 5303 times:

Maybe JetBlue should just hunker down instead of growing. Adding A320s to their network will only trickle down to their worst markets, which clearly are money losers.

Growth is to increase your size above the profitabiltiy line. If you can't add profitable flying, you should not grow. Right now B6 can't even place their current fleet in profitable flying... so growth should make one leery.

The one wildcard here is the E190; IMO JetBlue has plenty of nice jobs for them to do.


User currently offlineNWBOS From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 157 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5204 times:

As others have mentioned, the major factor in this happening at B6 is the continued operation of the other majors without one going out of business and liquidating. B6 counted on this to happen (and I would say counted on US to go out of business specifically). So far it isn't the case. The other major carriers are continuing on cost cutting, albeit at a pace which isn't as fast as management would like. The point is that costs are continuing on a downward trend. It will be interesting to see how JetBlue will weather this storm. The unfortunate reality is that in order for true profitability to return to the majority of carriers, one airline has to fold --because capacity is still much higher than demand.

[Edited 2006-04-18 18:40:23]

User currently offlineSteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9209 posts, RR: 20
Reply 13, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5195 times:

Quoting B777a340fan (Reply 4):
B6's aircrafts aren't "old". I thought they were one of the youngest in the market?

I didn't think they're old either. This airline started flying in 2000. Since when is 6 years considered to be a long time for an aircraft to be in operation? There are planes that are considerably older and replacements for those birds are not talked about just yet...

Look at US fleet of A320s. They are roughly twice as old as B6's fleet; they came online in around 1996. Are they going to be retired or replaced??? I don't think so...



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineFlying_727 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 435 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5180 times:

How old is their oldest A320? Tt can't be that old.

User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 15, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 5067 times:

A couple of rumors going around concerning the near-term future of JetBlue:

1. Look for revisions in the fare system, JetBlue is having trouble with its yields on certain routes.....with a lot of capacity on the Florida and Transcon routes, the fares had to go up.....ie, the end of $59 to Florida and $99 to the West Coast. Over the past few days, I have been hearing that, all of a sudden, JetBlue got very expensive and flights on JetBlue seem to cost more than on UA or CO on the competing routes. The public is confused, which is not good. Look for JetBlue to revise its fare system and bring new yield management systems in to place.....JetBlue just hired a yield management expert who is ex-Piedmont/US Airways to help. This is a big issue that needs resolution quickly: JetBlue must figure out how to keeps its planes filled with a good average yield and, at the same time, not upset its loyal customer base.

2. Regarding the fleet, the rumors are that JetBlue may defer the delivery of some A320s over the long term, and sell some A320s and E190s off of the delivery line in the near-term. Its still speculative.......what would happen is that JetBlue would sell aircraft scheduled for certain delivery dates to other airlines, but more likely a leasing company.....the newly built aircraft would go directly to the new operator and JetBlue would never take possession of the subject aircraft. What I heard is that JetBlue would like to cut A320 deliveries by half for the coming 12-18 months; I am not sure how many aircraft we are talking about, but an Airbus or JetBlue expert could probably figure it out. This is NOT the end of the world, many airlines have done this over the years......everyone from Delta to Lufthansa to Continental have pulled this trick.....airplanes are long lead time equipment, and sometimes deliveries come exactly at the wrong moment.

JetBlue will figure this out.....but it does look like the coming period will be a difficult transition for them.....all of a sudden, JetBlue is dealing with the same difficult issues that other US carriers must cope with, plus they must work on their pricing system.


User currently offlinePanAm330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2679 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 4999 times:

Quoting Flying_727 (Reply 14):
How old is their oldest A320? Tt can't be that old.

N503JB (msn 1123), Bluebird. Delivered 12/01/1999.


User currently offlineSteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9209 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 4977 times:

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
What I heard is that JetBlue would like to cut A320 deliveries by half for the coming 12-18 months; I am not sure how many aircraft we are talking about, but an Airbus or JetBlue expert could probably figure it out.

That would definitely make sense to me if they did that. They have been expanding and adding new service rather rapidly and this expansion if continued will stretch the financial stability very thin for B6. I think this would be wise for them. Limit its deliveries and don't add city after city to the network with a short period of time.

Just a month ago, they added PIT and JAX service, last week they added CLT and one other city. WN added that many cities in one year a few times.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
JetBlue will figure this out.....but it does look like the coming period will be a difficult transition for them.....

The coming period will be tough in deed for them as well as any other airline; they have good management there. Neeleman has been a terrific CEO for them, he has a great work ethic, and I have all the faith in B6 myself...



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12110 posts, RR: 48
Reply 18, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 4937 times:
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Even AA is playing there hand this upcoming Summer very conservitively!

AA scales back typical summer expansion
American Airlines will hold back on the annual expansion of domestic routes it usually makes during the busy summer travel season. The move is part of the airline’s effort to break even for the first time in six years and is something that “will test rival U.S. carriers' new-found discipline of limiting additional capacity to push through fare increases,” writes the Financial Times/MSNBC. Even without AA's decision, domestic capacity has already fallen 3.9% over the past year. And with capacity being cut, flights are getting fuller -- with about 76% of available seats were filled last month. Planes flying at such full levels could start to present problems for airlines as the summer travel season gets under way. "We've reached about the limit of where we want to put load factors," says Jim Whitehurst, Delta's chief operating officer.

Posted at 08:03 AM/ET, Mar 28, 2006 in American | Permalink | Comments (6)



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2389 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 4894 times:

Neeleman has said publicly that he might sell some of the Airbis to other carriers thatthey are supposed to take delivery this year. another thread discussed this. Can't find it now, though. Sorry.

User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4116 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 4848 times:

I'm not saying this situation with jetBlue is or isn't like what happened with PeopleExpress (you know...fast--some would say too-fast--growth, etc.).

Just curious: Will those who say that this is an 'entirely different situation' please explain themselves?

Chris in NH


User currently offlineSteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9209 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 4811 times:

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 19):
Neeleman has said publicly that he might sell some of the Airbis to other carriers thatthey are supposed to take delivery this year. another thread discussed this. Can't find it now, though. Sorry.

I wonder if US would like to take any of these birds, or if it even has the desire or need to do so...



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineN867BX From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 339 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 4783 times:

Little Jetblue, they needed the, um, never mind.

User currently offlineJunction From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 768 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 4764 times:

Quoting B777a340fan (Reply 4):
On a side note, has anyone tried to book a ticket on B6's website lately? The fares are through the roof!!! I thought it was a LCC? I ended up buying tix on UAL for $150 less a piece. Wow!

Contrary to popular belief, the term LCC (low cost carrier) is not related to ticket price. It simply means the carrier adopts a low cost operating model in order to maximize revenue.

[Edited 2006-04-18 22:36:05]

User currently offlineSteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9209 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 4716 times:

Quoting Junction (Reply 23):
Contrary to popular belief, the term LCC (low coast carrier) is not related to ticket price. It simply means the carrier adopts a low cost operating model in order to maximize revenue.

This does allow them to start fares at a lower rate due to the lower costs, but again, that does not always warant a cheap fare. Fares on LCCs depend on day, time of year, and time of day of travel, as well as any additional competition on that route...

I.E. US charged $217 one way minimum between PHL and PIT. Now it's $118 round trip after WN came in and lowered fares.

US charges upwards of $300 one way to LGA and BOS from PIT, but that might change when B6 starts service.

US is considered to be a LCC now that it has merged with America West. It has found a way of cutting its operating costs, and as much as I hate to say it, but dehubbing PIT was wise of US to do; it was too expensive an airport for them to operate a hub at, and it still is to some extent I am sure...

Regarding the increasing costs of jet fuel with the increase in the price of oil, look for fares to go up even higher so that airlines can still make money. Offering cheap fares all the time is not always the best way to make money. That will draw a lot of people, but you have to look at the business model here. Will that offset or outweigh the costs if you charge a certain fare on a given airline for a given route? If fares are too low, they could completely fill all of their planes on their routes and still come up short of the costs. This is likely why they have a certain number of seats that are worth that certain fare. Say on WN for example, between PHL and PIT, they have fares ranging from 49-90 dollars one way... They have x amount of seats at 49, y amount at 59, z amount at 69 and so on... I am sure that many of you get this concept and just ignor this if you do. This is for those who still think of a LCC as a low fare airline. I am probably going to get eaten up and spit out for this but I am prepared for the criticism here; I am no expert at this. These are all just thoughts based on other info on here regarding posts and links...



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
25 RL757PVD : Something tells me that BOS JFK and LGA dont really fit that model, In addition, their HQ is in one of the most expensive areas in the country, meani
26 TIA : While their costs are rising (as it was predicted by many people before), that statement is one of the funniest I have read here, since their CASM is
27 RL757PVD : It was really meant to be more of a dramatic closing that anything really, however with that said, a TRUE LCC will focus on cost minimizing as oppose
28 JBLUA320 : You're kidding right? jetBlue employees are compensated well but compared to other airlines, the management at B6 is earning absolutely NOTHING! It's
29 JBLUA320 : Are these arbitrary numbers? If not, what is your source? JBLU
30 Goingboeing : Didn't UAL just emerge from a 3 year stint in bankruptcy? Is this their plan profitablity? What is unfortunate is that because of the bankruptcy laws
31 Post contains images Steeler83 : Now that is a funny mentality to have. The next airline to go into bk likely to fold and essentially becomming a sacrafice to the industry. Love it. S
32 JetBlueAUS : Exactly! When the carrier adopts the low cost operating model to maximize revenue it allows them to have low fares. Airlines that have slow turnaroun
33 Sllevin : This annoucement makes sense. With oil prices up yet again, B6's breakeven load factor is almost certainly above 90% -- adding capacity would just ble
34 Luv2fly : Please where B6 is HQ is hardly a favorable area! And unlike the other so called major carriers that have reservation centers that all cost rent and
35 Post contains images Steeler83 : Oh, I'll be damned... For once I was not chewed up on here. Thanks, I am glad you enjoyed the post   It took me a while to learn what a LCC is and h
36 Post contains images B777A340Fan : Didn't they learn anything form DH? Sigh One of the biggest reason that DH went belly-up was because they could not create sufficient profits from re
37 Post contains images Spartanmjf : Well there is one way to avoid paying for D Checks..... Maybe Airbus or Embraer will just give 'em a couple because well the folks at B6 are just so
38 Steeler83 : Someone on the thread regarding who will take AS MD80s made a statement regarding this, although it's a E135 and not the E90...
39 JBLUA320 : You are right, but the Canadair can't fly a large number of the routes the E190 can without stopping. The cost of the E190, which is not a regional j
40 Steeler83 : That is true. The E90 has much better range, I believe up to at least 1500 or 2000 miles... Plus, I also believe that it seats between 90 and 100 peo
41 Luv2fly : No you are correct the planes (E190's) hold exactly 100 seats.
42 Goingboeing : Actually, try reading threads about how Southwest and Jetblue are "whining about overcapacity, yet keep adding capacity". No, there is no overcapacit
43 Post contains images Incitatus : Are you telling us JetBlewIt didn't know about this before they chose their HQ location? I think JetBlewIt problems go all the way to the CEO. The gu
44 Luv2fly : He makes no bones about this, and he surrounds himself with strong people for that one reason.
45 Bond007 : Not necessarily. The purpose of a low-cost model is exactly that...to have low-costs in order to make a profit ...what an wild business idea! If LCCs
46 Steeler83 : That was just my way of putting what you said about the next airline to request bankruptcy protection. I must say, goingboeing, that last post there w
47 Goingboeing : Two words...market share. Because the MCI-LAX flight has to go thru either DTW or MSP first...sure makes those "market share" numbers look great.
48 RL757PVD : These are just arbitrary #'s showing how where you base employees how it relates to cost of living is important. Isnt it interested how most airline
49 Steeler83 : Ah, then this is more or less a more modern DC9 jet more or less; one that is more economical, not to mention...
50 Post contains images Jacobin777 : they are owned....B6 basically paid between $33-$36 million per frame...they might still be making payments on those however.... ......B6 got great m
51 JetBlueAUS : Only B6 won't go out of business. Currently, as you know, they are cleaning up their mistakes. Every airline has mistakes that they have made, only B
52 Goingboeing : Why would B6 close up shop? I mean, United, USAir (twice), Delta, and Northwest all seem unable to make money...witness their tour of their local ban
53 Post contains images Steeler83 : Ok, that was supposed to be a comical generalization of a previous post. I guess I didn't make it clear enough that people were supposed to laugh at
54 Post contains links Mariner : I think some are leased. Sixteen were in 2002: http://www.jetblue.com/ar2002/mda-liquid.html And I think they must still be leasing some, because the
55 Jacobin777 : of course, it was assumed B6 would take the proper steps necessary to stem their losses and attempt to return to profitability...... raising fares th
56 Post contains links and images Lightsaber : A little. But the rumor mill is that B6 can sell their oldest aircraft and book a profit. Truth? I have no idea. What? FLYI had notoriously low load
57 Dallas74 : The ATSB (set up in the days after 9/11) has contributed to the mess we find most airlines in today. If America West and US Airways were allowed to d
58 Supa7E7 : DCA was shut down for 3 weeks because of mad terrorists. And you think US Airways should not get disaster assistance -- which, by the way, they paid
59 Post contains images Jacobin777 : actually, IIRC, FlyI did have load factors of around 90%...maybe it was at the very, very end................. certainly a few of my dad's flight did
60 Steeler83 : I take it that that guy is no fan of US Airways...
61 Mariner : Ah - I tried it assuming a smaller number for the Embraers. (An aggregate cash total divided by aggregate number of aircraft would not allow for laun
62 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I think we got our numbers situation sorted out.. also, if one is to possibly believe what Lightsaber mentioned below (I have no idea if his statemen
63 Dallas74 : Perhaps you should get your facts in order before posting a flip comment. US Airways, like all other airlines, received a refund for the time the air
64 Sllevin : When talking about bankruptcy, something to keep in mind is that, if we eliminated Chapter 11 -- wherein the company is re-organized and the creditors
65 Mariner : I don't think we did. I disagree with your figure. I'll stick with mine. Hmmmm? Given that list for the A320 is around $55/$60 million, then any numb
66 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...I'm advocating for the fact B6 paid less for the A-320 frames than what you have mentioned ($40 million)...for B6 to make a profit on the frames,
67 Goingboeing : How about this...modify Chapter 11...If you can't get a reorganization plan in place within one year...close the doors. If you exit and re-enter in l
68 Richierich : Personally, I am not in disagreement with slowing the growth, whether that means JetBlue will ultimately defer some deliveries, etc. But clearly the s
69 Supa7E7 : I admire your respect for the free market. But maybe terrorism is not a legitimate part of the free market. Just a thought.
70 Steeler83 : Again, goingboeing, a very well thought-out and informative analysis of what would happen if certain carriers that have gone thru bk actually folded..
71 AADC10 : Analysts are idiots. Obviously B6 does not have any old planes to retire. Other startups flew older used planes, but the analyst does not know enough
72 Mariner : Um - just because you disagree with someone, why call them "an idiot"? Mr. Baker is one of the most respected airline analysts on Wall Street. But it
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