Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Is Airbus Losing China?  
User currently offlineEHHO From Bulgaria, joined Dec 2005, 815 posts, RR: 7
Posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7732 times:

I just watched President Hu Jintao's speech at Boeing, and the figures were literally surreal: 678 Boeings in China now, 600 to be delivered in the upcoming years, and the demand for new planes will pretty soon reach 2000 (two thousand)! And to think, this was practically the CEO of a single customer speaking, since all Chinese aviation procurement is done by the state agency CAAC.

Now I know that China has a huge trade surplus with the USA, and that buying expensive yet unrestricted hardware like airliners is one of the best ways to soothe the pain, but I still cannot stop thinking that Airbus is losing out here, especially with its already-poor sales in the widebody field.

Anyway, I guess my question is if CAAC is Boeing's biggest customer ever, and secondly, anyone any ideas about what Airbus can do to get some of the 2000 orders to be made? It's not like we don't have a trade defecit with China...  scratchchin 

Oh, and please.. no flaming!


"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
42 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7657 times:

China has a habit of splitting aircraft orders 50/50 between A and B.

Mr. Hu Jintao is on a state visit to the USA, something quite exceptional. In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country and during this kinds of visits it is custom to conclude high profile business deals. On this trip, Mr. Jintao will finalize the purchase of 80 737s which has been delayed since last year, so don't forget this will nicely add up to the 70 planes they've ordered from Boeing last year. This will balance out the 150 A320s the've ordered from Airbus.

Same can be expected in the wide body field:
China has ordered 787s (60???) and will be a risk sharing partner in the A350 program (5% of the A350 will be Chinese) so it is only a matter of time before they will balance this order out as well.... Expect this to be done as soon as the design of the plane is frozen, during the first state visit of Mr Hu Jintao to any of the European capitals.

Anybody knows how many Airbus planes China has on order? And how many they have already taken delivery of?


User currently offlineKL808 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1584 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7633 times:

on National Public Radio this morning it talked about the Chinese order of Boeing jets, as a sign to the US government that its trying to tackle the big gap in the trade deficit.

Without a Boeing order, the state of Washington will be on a deficit with China as the rest of the 49 states.

Drew



AMS-LAX-MNL
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6882 posts, RR: 63
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7579 times:

Quoting EHHO (Thread starter):
I still cannot stop thinking that Airbus is losing out here, especially with its already-poor sales in the widebody field.

Hmmm... On order or in service:

747 - 21
767 - 27
777 - 20
787 - 60

TOTAL : 128

A310 - 3
A300 - 19
A330 - 54
A340 - 16
A380 - 5

TOTAL : 97

"already-poor sales in the widebody field"? A comparatively small order (by Chinese standards) for the A350 would bring the two level but Boeing has been selling in China for longer than Airbus has existed. Doesn't look too "poor" to me.


User currently offlineEHHO From Bulgaria, joined Dec 2005, 815 posts, RR: 7
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7568 times:

Quoting KL808 (Reply 2):
Without a Boeing order, the state of Washington will be on a deficit with China as the rest of the 49 states.

Hmm.. the economies of WA and the other 49 are one, so WA cannot have a deficit or a surplus w/o the other ones joining in.

Quoting KL808 (Reply 2):
as a sign to the US government

Actually, the trade deficit is more Washington's problem than Beijing's. Beijing is risking a lot by pushing lots of assets on the US market, raising their stake in case of a dollar collapse; but the US risk even more by living on borrowed money, certainly with China pushing off attempts to revalue the RMB, and with that mentioned collapse coming closer day by day. Mark my words, the greenback will plummet badly one day.



"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
User currently offlineMagyar From Hungary, joined Feb 2000, 599 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7568 times:

IMHO, the Chinese market will be devided between AB and BA according the relative importance of the EU and US for
China. There is little that AB or BA can do to change this.


User currently offlineBreiz From France, joined Mar 2005, 1917 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7568 times:

Quoting EHHO (Thread starter):
but I still cannot stop thinking that Airbus is losing out here, especially with its already-poor sales in the widebody field.

May well be.
However, Airbus is in the process of selecting the site of the Chinese A320 assembly line.
And in recent years, as pointed out by:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
China has a habit of splitting aircraft orders 50/50 between A and B.

So I do not think that there is grounds for worrying, on either side, Airbus or Boeing.


User currently offlineEHHO From Bulgaria, joined Dec 2005, 815 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7535 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
Doesn't look too "poor" to me.

Thanks for the numbers, PM. What I meant more by poor sales is overall widebody poor, compared to Boeing, not China specifically. Indeed with the huge A330 orders it looks like Airbus is getting some of the growth, but it still isn't what Boeing's is. According to President Hu today, two thirds of China's civil register is Boeing. Theoretically, Airbus mught be able to sell dozens A380s given all those multi-million-inhabited cities in China that need to be connected. Just look at Japan's domestic 747s, and multiply that by X..

Bottom line: I know Airbus is doing OK: but they could just as well do better. In the ned, you won't see Hu in Toulouse anytime soon I'm afraid.



"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7535 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
Hmmm... On order or in service:

747 - 21
767 - 27
777 - 20
787 - 60

TOTAL : 128

A310 - 3
A300 - 19
A330 - 54
A340 - 16
A380 - 5
TOTAL : 97

Do your totals include leased aircraft? Are Cathay Pacific and Taiwanese airlines included?


User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2088 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7487 times:

That sounds impressive, but AA's current mainline fleet alone is 700 planes and China has few RJs. As they are in many cases as a market, China is more promise than profit.

User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6882 posts, RR: 63
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7385 times:

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 8):
Do your totals include leased aircraft? Are Cathay Pacific and Taiwanese airlines included?

Yes, that includes leased aircraft, though, in truth, there aren't a lot of those.

No, it doesn't include any of the Hong Kong carriers. If it did the totals would read:

747 - 51
767 - 27
777 - 57
787 - 60

TOTAL : 195

A310 - 3
A300 - 20
A330 - 103
A340 - 34
A380 - 5

TOTAL :165

No, it doesn't include Taiwanese aircraft as that is a very different market. But, if we lump China, Taiwan and Hong Kong (all with B- registrations) we find that the most successful single widebody is the A330 with 127 sales. Interesting.

[Edited 2006-04-19 22:24:11]

User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3605 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7334 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country

Really. Where is this written?


User currently offlineEHHO From Bulgaria, joined Dec 2005, 815 posts, RR: 7
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7317 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country

I believe this is an unwritten rule for Europe's constitutional monarchs. I don't think it applies to elected heads involved in politics (like China, Russia, US). Certainly with Chinese leadership usually sitting for long times on end, it is thinkable that Hu might come again in a state-visit capacity when there'll be a new occupant at 1600 Pennsylvania.



"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
User currently offlineBreiz From France, joined Mar 2005, 1917 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7260 times:

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 11):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country

Really. Where is this written?

That may be a Belgian rule.
For example, President Chirac is presently visiting Egypt, officially, for the fifth time.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6882 posts, RR: 63
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7246 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 9):
China is more promise than profit

You may be missing the point. Do you remember when selling a handful of 707s to China was big news? (I do.) Nowadays they order 737s and A320s in three-figure sums. Make no mistake about it, China is going to be a massive market for both Airbus and Boeing.

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
the most successful single widebody is the A330

Thinking a bit more about it, the A330 is the only widebody to have been bought by all of mainland China's "Big Three", both Hong Kong majors and both Taiwanese majors:

Air China (20) (RR)
China Eastern (20) (RR)
China Southern (14) (RR)
Cathay Pacific (32) (RR)
Dragonair (16) (RR)
China Airlines (14) (GE)
EVA (11) (GE)

The 747 is operated by:
Air China
China Southern (2 freighters)
Cathay
Dragonair (5 freighters)
China Airlines
EVA

The 777 is operated by (or on order):
Air China
China Southern
Cathay
EVA

The A340 is operated by:
Air China
China Eastern
Cathay
China Airlines

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
But, if we lump China, Taiwan and Hong Kong (all with B- registrations)

So I guess we should include Air Macau's three A300s to take the Airbus total to 168.


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7235 times:

Keep in mind there's a difference between an official visit (which can happen many times), and a state visit (which can only happen once)....

Pres Bush recently visited the UK on a state visit, and was given honours (like staying in Buckingham Palace etc) which he will not be getting next time he comes by: he'll then have to stay in the US embassy for instance...

Basically it is a purely protocol difference between the 2, but still...


User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7219 times:

Quoting EHHO (Reply 4):
Hmm.. the economies of WA and the other 49 are one

That is simply not true, if it were we would not have poor states (Kentucky, Arkasas, Mississippi) and rich states (most of the upper east coast, Texas, Washington, California) I hope you are not a transplanted American saying that because if so you should know better.

[Edited 2006-04-19 22:53:58]


Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineFrugalqxnwa From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 565 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7219 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
747 - 21
767 - 27
777 - 20
787 - 60

TOTAL : 128

A310 - 3
A300 - 19
A330 - 54
A340 - 16
A380 - 5

TOTAL : 97

"already-poor sales in the widebody field"? A comparatively small order (by Chinese standards) for the A350 would bring the two level but Boeing has been selling in China for longer than Airbus has existed. Doesn't look too "poor" to me.

How many of these aircraft are on order and how many of which types? The number on order with Airbus compared with the number on order with Boeing will be a better indicator.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6882 posts, RR: 63
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7197 times:

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 17):
How many of these aircraft are on order and how many of which types? The number on order with Airbus compared with the number on order with Boeing will be a better indicator.

OK. Crudely, all of the 787s, most of the A330s and all of the A380s have yet to be built and flown.

A "better indicator" of just what?


User currently offlineFrugalqxnwa From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 565 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7109 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 18):
Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 17):
How many of these aircraft are on order and how many of which types? The number on order with Airbus compared with the number on order with Boeing will be a better indicator.

OK. Crudely, all of the 787s, most of the A330s and all of the A380s have yet to be built and flown.

A "better indicator" of just what?

A better indicator of the answer to the main question in this post. If most of the A330s are still on order, then the order books are already pretty balanced and I would say Airbus is probably not losing China. The trade deficit is a hot-button issue in the US and the Chinese President visiting Boeing and personally closing the deal is more of a political maneuver than a real addressing of the issue that many in the US want.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6882 posts, RR: 63
Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7085 times:

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 19):
If most of the A330s are still on order, then the order books are already pretty balanced and I would say Airbus is probably not losing China.

So far...

China Southern have received 4 of 14
China Eastern have received 10 of 20
Air China have received 0 of 20

i.e. 14 delivered and 40 still to come.


User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days ago) and read 7022 times:

Airbus is doing quite well in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, with 148 wide- bodies delivered, including: 36-A300's, 3-A310's, 68-A330's, and 41-A340's. Their backlog is currently 56 including 51-A330's and 5-A380's, giving Airbus a total of 204 wide-bodies.

Boeing is doing even better with 195 wide-bodies in operation, including: 110-B747's, 29-B767's, 38-B777's and 18-MD11's. Their backlog is currently 98, including 12-B747's, 26-B777's and 60-B787's, giving Boeing a total of 293 wide-bodies.

Airlines include Air China, Air Hong Kong, Air Macao, Cathay Pacific, China Airlines, China Eastern, China Southern, China Cargo, DragonAir, EVA, Hainan, Jade Carago, LCAL Leasing, Shanghai, and Xiamen.


User currently offlineEHHO From Bulgaria, joined Dec 2005, 815 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 6 days ago) and read 6997 times:

Thanks for the thoughts, everyone. It seems that given the figures, China is placing orders with A and B depending on the scale of their trade surplus with the corresponding economic bloc. That's why Boeing gets slightly more than Airbus. Makes sense for China of course, though it can't arguably be the best fleet planning strategy. But China can afford it for now, which is great for the manufacturers.

Most great aircraft have had their hayday when airlines had plenty to spend: I guess now and in the near future it will be China who's calling the shots.



"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
User currently offlineSEAPlane10 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 86 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 6348 times:

Quoting EHHO (Reply 4):
Hmm.. the economies of WA and the other 49 are one, so WA cannot have a deficit or a surplus w/o the other ones joining in.

Not really, no more so than are the economies of the Euro countries considered one. The individual states are afforded a great deal of autonomy in deciding economic policies and strategies, even though they are bound together by a common currency.

Quoting EHHO (Reply 4):
Mark my words, the greenback will plummet badly one day.

Highly unlikely...what is needed to ensure confidence in the US currency is an indication from the US central government to address the budget deficit. Unlike many European countries, the US government has a lot of wiggle room to increase the marginal tax rates on high-earning individuals. Many European countries are running significant budgetary deficits while maintaining onerous marginal tax rates. Another reason the greenback has a future is the lack of replacement. With an aging population, the European Union does not provide a viable alternative as the liabilities of the future pensioners will put ever-more-so pressure on the central governments' budgets.


User currently offlineElvis777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 360 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 5785 times:

Please Come Back!

I already apologized!

Elvis777



Leper,Unevolved, Misplaced and Unrepentant SportsFanatic and a ZOMBIE as well
25 Carpethead : Kind of surprised that no other types other than the 737 were involved in this latest order. Problem is that most of those millions in China are not f
26 PM : I'd actually argue that it's a little closer than that. The MD-11s were ordered when the company was still McD so they can't really count towards Boe
27 N754PR : The amount of silly negative airbus post on this site is just getting crazy, when will the moderators take note??? Airbus is doing great in China, jus
28 Joni : Queen Elizabeth has also made several state visits each to countries like France, the US, Norway, the Vatican etc.
29 Dougloid : The Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar. The dollar goes up? RMB goes up. You folks better hope that the dollar doesn't crash because if it does
30 Cricket : Um, lemme think now - Crazy Europeans start threads like "Boeing planes bad" Crazy Americans start ones like "Airbus Planes bad" yada, yada, yada and
31 Warren747sp : It depends how much European consumers are willing to contribute to China as US consumers are doing now. Of course, Europe can always lift their arms
32 Cyclonic : Some very interesting comments here and wise words as well. I'm going to throw in my two cents: *A&B would both be wise to not depend overly on China
33 Dhefty : If the MD's were sitting in the bone yard, I might agree with you. However, they are registered as active aircraft. Boeing still gains considerable r
34 DAYflyer : Precisely. They are well known to play both sides of the pond, so to speak. There are large Chinese commitments for Airbus products.
35 PM : Er, would you like to clarify just how my numbers in Reply #3 are "grossly inaccurate"? The original post is clearly about China - that is, mainland
36 DeltaDC9 : Hong Kong is now under his control unless he gave it back to the British. Question is, who controls the Hong Kong airlines, are they still private in
37 PM : Absolutely right and I am of course aware of this. Therefore I wrote... As far as I know, Cathay and Dragonair order their planes independently of th
38 Frugalqxnwa : While I agree the MDs should be counted, the A300/A310 are still in production. IIRC FedEX and UPS are still receiving new A300 freighters. While I d
39 PM : But, of course, this is an Aunt Sally. I never suggested that out-of-production planes shouldn't be counted. I was suggesting that there might be a q
40 Post contains images PM : I'm going to bed now but I'll whack you again before I do. I don't know if it qualifies as a "shocker" or not but isn't the somewhat disappointing re
41 Dhefty : There are only 12 A300's and 5 A310's in the backlog and I believe Airbus has decided to close the line in the near future. Actually Air China curren
42 Post contains images PM : I've stated several times that my numbers in Reply #3 referred only to mainland China. You still haven't attempted to explain why they are "grossly i
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
When Is Airbus Going To Update Their Website? posted Sun Nov 12 2006 05:40:44 by Dougloid
Is Airbus The Next Enron? posted Fri Oct 13 2006 05:57:44 by Tangowhisky
How Far Behind Is Airbus? posted Sat Oct 7 2006 22:45:08 by Glom
Fortune Magazine: Airbus Losing Altitude posted Tue Jul 25 2006 13:47:26 by Leelaw
Article: Is Airbus' John Leahy On The Hot Seat? posted Tue Jun 27 2006 19:38:36 by AerospaceFan
Is Airbus Already Offering New A350/A370? posted Tue Jun 6 2006 11:23:20 by Joni
Is Airbus Beginning To Slip A Little Bit? posted Fri Mar 31 2006 06:04:21 by AviationAddict
What Is Airbus SAS Stock Symbol? posted Thu Feb 16 2006 15:52:17 by Wdleiser
Boeing And Airbus - Losing The Market? posted Tue Aug 23 2005 23:47:03 by Mrcomet
After AC Cancellation, Is Airbus #1 In 2005? posted Sun Jun 19 2005 22:24:52 by A380900