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WN's Feb DEN Load Factor Was 79.3% - DEN Booming  
User currently onlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3827 posts, RR: 34
Posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4348 times:

I was able to figure out WN's overall load factor at DEN for February and it was strong.

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows Southwest having 370 departures and 370 arrivals at DEN for the month of February which represents 101,380 available seats.

This news brief mentions Southwest flying 80,384 passengers at DEN in February.

That's a load factor of 79.3%. WN's system-wide lod factor for Feb. was 68.5%

March's totals wil reflect the new service to BWI and SLC

This may have been posted elsewhere but there was an aritcle in the Denver Post about DEN being the 4th busiest airport in the nation in January (based on domestic traffic) passing LAX and LAS.

April 18, 2006
Denver's Airport Passes Los Angeles and Las Vegas to Become the Fourth-busiest
The Denver Post

DEN also reported having its busiest February ever, hosting more than 3.3 million passengers, setting a traffic record for the 10th conscutive month.

The percentage of connecting passengers has dropped and the percentage of O&D passengers has risen.

In February 2006, 33.2 percent of all DIA passengers were connecting, down from 43.7 percent a year earlier.

66.8 percent of all passengers started or ended their trips at DEN up from 56.3 percent from a year ago.

Frontier had a 20.1 percent increase in passengers in February. and Frontier traffic increased on all three routes (DEN-MDW, DEN-PHX and DEN-LAS) from Denver in January compared with a year earlier.

United had an increase in traffic on its DEN-PHX and DEN-ORD routes.

Frontier carried the most passengers from Denver to Chicago Midway, while United carried the most passengers from Denver to Las Vegas and Denver to Phoenix.

Nice to see DEN doing well, not just for WN but for the others, too.

LoneStarMike

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4286 times:
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In the DEN press release (http://flydenver.com/biz/news/prDetail.asp?pr_id=175), I was a little irritated that DEN called out the specific number of passengers for WN, but not for Frontier and United, who still dwarf WN at DEN.

Yes, WN at DEN is a big deal. DEN shouldn't forget, though, that it has bigger customers...


User currently offlineSteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9211 posts, RR: 20
Reply 2, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 4205 times:

Are they looking at DEN-PIT or PHL? Or is F9 scaring WN away from running a DEN-PHL flight? I don't think that PIT is feasible yet...


Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4118 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 4162 times:

This is nowhere near being a 'must-do' route, but DEN-MHT would be cool to see inasmuch as UA has de-emphasized MHT in favor of trying to 'force' passengers down to Boston. MHT-DEN (or, DEN-MHT for our Mountain time zone friends) would be a major tweak right on United's nose. There's no doubt the route would do well, and with 9,250 feet of concrete we can launch a full flight from here to DEN any time of year. And as impressive as WN's loads at DEN are, MHT is right along with you in the high 70s.

Chris in NH


User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3805 posts, RR: 29
Reply 4, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4123 times:

Quoting LoneStarMike (Thread starter):
WN's Feb DEN Load Factor Was 79.3% - DEN Booming

Since the "experts" inform us that WN is "getting hammered" at DEN by F9 and UA, what were their DEN load factors for the same month? ...must have been outa' sight...


User currently offlineCentPIT From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 990 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4096 times:

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 2):
Are they looking at DEN-PIT or PHL? Or is F9 scaring WN away from running a DEN-PHL flight? I don't think that PIT is feasible yet...

I hope WN adds PIT flights!!!!!!! I would be sooo Happpppy!!!




I am happy for DEN as well...  Yeah sure


Just messin!



Pittsburgh International: US Airways---160 daily departures! (52 destinations)
User currently onlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3827 posts, RR: 34
Reply 6, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4081 times:

I think if WN were smart they might want to consider DEN-OMA and DEN-MCI. The DEN-OMA flight could continue as a one-stop to MDW and the DEN-MCI coud continue as a one-stop to STL. Both routes line up rather nicely if you look at them on Great Circle mapper.

Plus, the west-bound flights into DEN could make a quick out and back flight to either SLC, LAS, or PHX, adding frequencies in those markets, then make the return westbound flight from DEN to OMA-MDW or MCI-STL.

Q# 2005 Q&D Stats

DEN-OMA - 472 miles
410 daily passengers
Avg. fare $166.07 - (35.2 cents per mile)
F9 mkt share - 52.0%
F9 avg. fare $163.85 - (34.7 cents per mile)

DAL-MCI is a route of similar distance (461 miles) and I think Southwest's avg. fare is about $100.00 on that route. Their highest fare is only $129.00 on DAL-MCI, about $35.00 less than F9's average fare on DEN-OMA.

Southwest could generate additional traffic on this route with lower fares and a DEN-OMA-MDW flight would add an additional frequency between DEN and MDW. It wouldn't be a nonstop like Southwest's other four daily departures, but it's still an additional frequency in the market

DEN-MCI - 533 miles
768 daily passengers
Avg. fare $171.28 - (32.1 cents per mile)
F9 mkt share - 59%
F9 avg. fare $165.22 - (31 cents per mile)

This route is similar in distance to DAL-STL (551 miles) where Southwest's highest fare is $129.00, about $36.00 less than F9's avg fare for DEN-MCI.

Doing DEN-MCI-STL and DEN-OMA-MDW, would also give both Missouri and Nebraska additional service.

OMA would get new n/s service to DEN and additonal n/s service to MDW. MCI would get new service to DEN and additional service to STL. Stl would get additional service to MCI and a one-stop flight to DEN.

I believe senators from both MO and NE have been very supportive of Southwest's efforts to overturn the Wright Amendment and these proposed flights might make for a good "thank you."

Just an idea.

LoneStarMike

User currently offlineSteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9211 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4069 times:

Quoting CentPIT (Reply 5):
I hope WN adds PIT flights!!!!!!! I would be sooo Happpppy!!!

Now here's the surprise of the century... I would like for WN to add DEN to PIT's network, but it would be nicer if F9 would do that; it means one more airline; one more LCC in PIT  Smile



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineIowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4404 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4030 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Very interesting. Hopefully more PIT and DEN flights are on the horizon. I wonder how there DEN-SLC loads were? Seems like more of an off route rather than the WN focus cities-DEN. Still very interesting none the less.


Next flights: WN DSM-LAS-PHX, US PHX-SJD.
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25292 posts, RR: 85
Reply 9, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3998 times:
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Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 4):
Since the "experts" inform us that WN is "getting hammered" at DEN by F9 and UA,

Which experts are saying that, at least about Frontier?

Most analysts are saying that Southwest at DEN will do great harm to Frontier, and Mike Boyd says that it is Southwest's intention "to take Frontier out".

And I guess you haven't been following the Frontier stock price since Southwest annonced Denver.

So - which experts did you have in mind?

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineCentPIT From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 990 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3938 times:

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 7):
Now here's the surprise of the century... I would like for WN to add AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN to PIT's network, but it would be nicer if F9 would do that; it means one more airline; one more LCC in PIT

While I agree another airline would be nice for PIT, F9 has an even less chance of expanding here in my eyes. I am all for WN at this point.


DEN-PHL and DEN-BUF would be nice to see as well!

[Edited 2006-04-25 03:38:23]


Pittsburgh International: US Airways---160 daily departures! (52 destinations)
User currently offlineFanoftristars From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 1608 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3923 times:

Well before this whole WN SLC-DEN flight started, I paid an average of $300 to fly this route; I just bought tickets to DEN today, 14 day advance purchase, for $149 on DL... While I'm glad to save money, I realize that nobody can make money at that rate! There's just too much capacity on this route now with UA, F9, DL and now WN. But, if history has anything to do with the outcome, I see WN staying strong, with the others pulling back. I'm sad as this will mean probably more CRJs for Delta on this route, instead of my beloved upgrade to first.


"FLY DELTA JETS"
User currently offlineIowa744Fan From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 931 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3905 times:

Quoting LoneStarMike (Thread starter):
That's a load factor of 79.3%. WN's system-wide lod factor for Feb. was 68.5%

Sorry bud, but the data that you gave does not indicate a 79.3% ldf. In fact, with the data that you gave, you cannot determine the ldf for WN in DEN. In the industry, most airlines (if not all) do not measure the load factor as the number of passengers divided by the number of seats because you have flights off all different lengths. This will cause a discrepency when trying to measure all routes in a market or in a system. Airlines calculate their ldfs as a fraction of rpms - revenue passenger miles (or rpkms) and asms - available seat miles (or asms). This way, you have a means of getting a standardized load factor across all routes regardless of length. This way, longhaul flights - which are generally a greater source of revenue - get represented on a standard scale with shorthaul flights that operate more frequently and tend to generate less revenue.

Because of this, we cannot tell what WN's LDF from DEN is for sure. Based up my knowledge of the situation, I would imagine the WN's LDF from DEN is less than the 79.3% that was stated, but still comfortably above the 68.5% for the system. Overall, I would say that they are still doing well in DEN, I just wanted to point out the correct way for calculating LDF and how much it can change without further knowledge of the number of pax travelling to each destniation from DEN (or any other given city).


Take a look at the cities that WN flies to from DEN:

DEN-LAS - 615 miles
ASMS per flight= 84255 (137*615)
6 flights daily in March
Total weekly seats = 5754
Total weekly ASMs = 3538710

DEN-PHX - 590 miles
ASMS per flight= 80830 (137*590)
5 flights daily in March
Total weekly seats = 4795
Total weekly ASMs = 2829050

DEN-MDW - 907 miles
ASMS per flight= 124259 (137*907)
4 flights daily in March
Total weekly seats = 3836
Total weekly ASMs = 3479252

DEN-OAK - 943 miles
ASMS per flight= 129191 (137*943)
1 flight weekly in March
Total weekly seats = 137
Total weekly ASMs = 129191

DEN-SAN - 839 miles
ASMS per flight= 114943 (137*839)
1 flight weekly in March
Total weekly seats = 137
Total weekly ASMs = 114943

DEN-BWI - 1500 miles
ASMS per flight= 205500 (137*1500)
1 filght daily in March
Total weekly seats = 959
Total weekly ASMs = 1438500

Total Seats per week = 15618
Total ASMs = 11529646

BWI - 6.14% of seats - 12.48% of ASMs
LAS - 36.84% of seats - 30.69% of ASMs
MDW - 24.56% of seats - 30.18% of ASMs
OAK - 0.88% of seats - 1.12% of ASMs
PHX - 30.70% of seats - 24.54% of ASMs
SAN - 0.88% of seats - 1.00% of ASMs

As you can see, the percentages that each market accounts for can vary by quite a bit. Chances are, there was not an equal number of passengers on each flight. The market ldf depends upon what the distribution is of passengers between the different flights. For instance, if more people flew on each LAS and PHX flight, and these flights accounted for a larger portion of the total pax, then the LDF will be less than the 79.3% value that was calculated. If the flights to BWI and MDW generally carried more pax per plane than the LAS and PHX flights, then the LDF will be higher than the 79.3% value that you calculated.

Let's say that the PHX and LAS flights went out full for a week and the remaining flights took and equal share of the remaining pax (probably unlikely, but used for an example here). In a week at 79.3%, that would be 12385 pax. So, 10549 pax were on the PHX and LAS flights, leaving us with 1836 pax. Let's say that the SAN and OAK flights also went out full, leaving us with 1562 pax. Let's then split the remaining pax to be 1500 to MDW and 62 to BWI. Again, these results are highly unlikely, but I am just showing them as an example of how the numbers can change.

So, our RPMS would be 93000 (BWI) + 3538710 (LAS) + 1360500 (MDW) + 129191 (OAK) + 2829050 (PHX) + 114943 (SAN) = 8065394. Thus, our LDF would be 8065394/11529646 = 69.95% (could be lower if we had all pax going to OAK and BWI go to MDW instead).

Conversely, suppose that BWI, MDW, OAK, and SAN went out full. This would leave 7316 pax. Suppose that we split these equally between PHX and LAS.

So, our RPMs would be 1438500 (BWI) + 2249670 (LAS) + 3479252 (MDW) _ 129191 (OAK) + 2158220 (PHX) + 114943 (SAN) = 9569776. Thus, the LDF would be 83.00%

As you can see, the actual LDF will vary depending upon the distribution of the passengers on each flight. Take a look at the link you posted for WN's Feb ldf. The value of 68.5% is calculated by dividing the rpms by the asms.

Hope that this was helpful in clarifying that. I'm willing to be that during this time, someone put a simplified and easier to read version of this up already!  Smile


User currently offlineIowa744Fan From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 931 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3900 times:

Shoot. I forgot about DEN-SLC. They operate four daily flights and the distance is 380 miles from DEN to SLC. So, this will actually futher distort the differences in the percentages of seats and ASMs in my post. However, I don't really wish to redo all of the calculations, so I will let it go.

Anyway, sorry about forgetting SLC.


User currently offlineUSPIT10L From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 3295 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3886 times:

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 7):
Now here's the surprise of the century... I would like for WN to add DEN to PIT's network, but it would be nicer if F9 would do that; it means one more airline; one more LCC in PIT

I agree. I'd rather see a whole new airline here than just expansion of existing service. Besides, WN has better markets than DEN targeted from here anyway. DEN's not that big from here. The biggest aircraft flown from here recently is the 734. UA flies 733s.

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 6):
I think if WN were smart they might want to consider DEN-OMA and DEN-MCI.

DEN-MCI would be terrific. DEN-OMA-MDW would fit well too. I haven't heard anything about new planes this year at WN. Anybody heard anything?



It's a Great Day for Hockey!
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 15, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3845 times:

I was talking to a former pilot based out of DEN onboard a F9 flight last week. That morning I watched a F9 SLC flight go out with an horrific load factor (I counted 10 people boarding, I suspect it was probably twice to three times that, but it was a A318/9 at the gate). I was traveling to LAX (which WN does not have direct service to yet).

The pilot openly speculated that not only was WN here to kill F9 and damage UA, they might even be interested in buying F9 out to jumpstart things. I pointed out the fleet differences and other point to point versus hub problems and he shrugged.

I don't think it's feasable, but I have to admit that while I was in Mariner's camp that WN would not do long term damage to F9, I am begining to suspect that WN's DEN plans include completly dismanteling F9 flights wherever they compete with F9.

In one sense F9 is a much harder target then UA. They have more passenger loyalty, a far better product and better operating dynamics then UA. But they also have a brand new fleet of Airbus that are hardly paid for, and could easily run into a liquidity crisis.

I think you see this reflecting in F9's new advertisements in Denver. They openly are mocking WN for having their passengers "line up like cattle." WN is here to stay, and to expand, but F9 has some fight left.

That being said, I am very glad to see DEN pass LAX and Vegas. Props for a well build and efficent airport that can scale up so quickly.


User currently onlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6766 posts, RR: 32
Reply 16, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3829 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 9):
Which experts are saying that, at least about Frontier?

Well, I suspect it is more of a well-deserved jab at the so-called a.net "experts" who claimed that United and Frontier (and America West to PHX/LAS) would drive Southwest out of the market in short order.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 9):
Most analysts are saying that Southwest at DEN will do great harm to Frontier, and Mike Boyd says that it is Southwest's intention "to take Frontier out".

On the flip side, Mike Boyd's being a bit melodramatic here, too. While Southwest being at DEN does indeed make life tougher for Frontier, I don't think it's true that it signals F9's ultimate demise. After all, Frontier certainly did not shy away from Southwest when they decided to enter LAX-MCI and LAX-STL (even though these routes were eventually discontinued by F9).

The effect on Frontier's stock price I'd suspect is more reflective of the fact that the ability of Frontier to adjust to lower yields at its key market is uncertain. And until there's clear evidence that Frontier management has properly adjusted their pricing models to effectively compete with Southwest, Wall Street will likely be somewhat skeptical. Southwest's entry into DEN has lowered their yields on competing routes although I believe revenue is actually up for Frontier in those same markets.


User currently onlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3827 posts, RR: 34
Reply 17, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3795 times:

Iowa733FanAs you can see, the actual LDF will vary depending upon the distribution of the passengers on each flight.

Thanks for taking the time to give those detailed examples. The best way for me to learn is by example.

I realize that different routes perform differently with regards to load factor. I was just using the term loosely to indcate the averge percentage of butts-in-seats on each flight. I should have maybe said the average load factor.

LoneStarMike

User currently offlineIowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4404 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3795 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting Fanoftristars (Reply 11):
While I'm glad to save money, I realize that nobody can make money at that rate!

WN might be able to.

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 14):
DEN-MCI would be terrific. DEN-OMA-MDW would fit well too.

DEN-MCI yes, I think so. DEN-OMA maybe if it was say only 2x daily. DEN-OMA already has mainline aircraft from F9 and UA (I think they still have 757's in OMA), and not many are going to do a one stop when they can fly non-stop DEN-MDW.

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 14):
I haven't heard anything about new planes this year at WN. Anybody heard anything?

WN is going to be receiving new -700's at a rate of about one aircraft every ten days for the next three years. They currently have 453 aircraft (total) give or take one I believe.



Next flights: WN DSM-LAS-PHX, US PHX-SJD.
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25292 posts, RR: 85
Reply 19, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3786 times:
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Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
, I suspect it is more of a well-deserved jab at the so-called a.net "experts" who claimed that United and Frontier (and America West to PHX/LAS) would drive Southwest out of the market in short order.

Hmm. I don't recall anyone here on a.net saying that, and if he did mean that, let him respond.

I do remember getting extremely bored from having to defend Frontier in the face of the Southwest adulation.

Including - as I am sure you recall - the statement that Frontier was "gouging" its passengers.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
On the flip side, Mike Boyd's being a bit melodramatic here, too. While Southwest being at DEN does indeed make life tougher for Frontier, I don't think it's true that it signals F9's ultimate demise.

It doesn't matter whether it is melodramatic or not, it is an "expert" saying it - which was the point of the post to which I replied.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
Frontier certainly did not shy away from Southwest when they decided to enter LAX-MCI and LAX-STL (even though these routes were eventually discontinued by F9).

As I have said to you repeatedly, I have no problem with Southwest at DEN, nor Frontier at LAX or MCI. I have no problem with competition.

I do have a problem when people make statements such as the one in the post to which I replied.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
The effect on Frontier's stock price I'd suspect is more reflective of the fact that the ability of Frontier to adjust to lower yields at its key market is uncertain.

There is no "uncertainty" in the fact that the stock price took it's biggest drop on the day Southwest announced service and another drop the day Southwest started service.

I am happy to report that Frontier's March load factor was in excess of 80% and RASM only dipped by less than one percent but this good news has certainly not filtered through to the analysts, since one analyst downgraded Frontier yesterday in the face of those figures - because of the Southwest threat.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
I don't think it's true that it signals F9's ultimate demise.

Not one of us knows what CEO Kelly intends at DEN.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineFanoftristars From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 1608 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3716 times:

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 18):
WN might be able to.

Well, maybe that's true, but when you consider that WN is offering a $49 one way internet special on the same dates as my flight, it's probably safe to assume that WN's planes SLC-DEN are far from full. Why they didn't start the route with two flights a day is beyond me.

I'm guessing WN will capture far less business travelers money than DL & UA on the same route, as most business travelers in a hub city stick with the predominant carrier for the elite benefits and non-stop routes. (thus they don't need 4x frequency to serve this route effectively) I'm a great example of the business traveler mentality. Flying over 100,000 miles a year for work, I've only flown WN once in the past year, PHX-SLC when DL had a mechanical and I didn't want to wait for the next flight to get home.



"FLY DELTA JETS"
User currently offlineSteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9211 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3704 times:

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 14):
WN has better markets than DEN targeted from here anyway.

Are you sure?... I am having such a hard time naming those better markets here... Ohhhh shoot... what are they again?...

sorry... couldn't resist Big grin



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineAAden From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 835 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days ago) and read 3657 times:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 15):
That being said, I am very glad to see DEN pass LAX and Vegas. Props for a well build and efficent airport that can scale up so quickly.

domestically number 4 what is dens ranking with total traffic


User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3805 posts, RR: 29
Reply 23, posted (8 years 5 months 3 days ago) and read 3640 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 9):
Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 4):
Since the "experts" inform us that WN is "getting hammered" at DEN by F9 and UA,



Quoting Mariner (Reply 9):
Which experts are saying that, at least about Frontier?

It was an airliners.net user (not a true expert IMHO, as denoted by the use of " " with the term) who I could name but will not, in a topic that was discussed about 6-8 weeks ago. Apparently a loyal FF with Frontier, the point the user was trying to use as evidence that Frontier and United were "hammering" Southwest at DEN was based on something like 15 daily non-stops each way by F9 and UA combined in the DEN-PHX market in comparison to only 4 by WN; even though WN had entered the DEN market something like only 2 months before the statement was made. F9 and UA were supposedly "hammering" WN at DEN on the strength of the formers' "superior" service.

From the title of this topic, it sounds like lots of people in the DEN market are finding WN's service to be acceptable. Which is my underlying point in reply #4, along with my contention that a February load factor of 79.3% at DEN by a new entrant in the market is hardly evidence that they are being "hammered" by F9 and UA at DEN in the area of passenger traffic.


User currently onlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6766 posts, RR: 32
Reply 24, posted (8 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3623 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 19):
Hmm. I don't recall anyone here on a.net saying that, and if he did mean that, let him respond.

I do remember getting extremely bored from having to defend Frontier in the face of the Southwest adulation.

I recall a thread in which a number of people claimed that Southwest's foray into DEN would meet with disaster in the face of competitive responses from the incumbent carriers, with folks claiming that Southwest's fares weren't any lower than the existing carriers, and that no one would choose WN given the "superior" products of their competitors. I'm honestly not motivated enough to go searching for it. And I don't think that confidence in Southwest's ability to succeed in the marketplace counts as "adulation."

Quoting Mariner (Reply 19):
Including - as I am sure you recall - the statement that Frontier was "gouging" its passengers.

Yup...and on certain fares that I've seen I'm not sure I'd say that they weren't "gouging" their passengers; they just weren't as bad as United. We can agree to disagree on that.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 19):
There is no "uncertainty" in the fact that the stock price took it's biggest drop on the day Southwest announced service and another drop the day Southwest started service.

I am happy to report that Frontier's March load factor was in excess of 80% and RASM only dipped by less than one percent but this good news has certainly not filtered through to the analysts, since one analyst downgraded Frontier yesterday in the face of those figures - because of the Southwest threat.

There's no uncertainty in where FRNT's stock price has gone, and it is clear that it is a result of Southwest entering DEN. But I'm also confident that Frontier's management team will find a way to coexist with Southwest competing in their DEN markets.

I think the problem with Frontier's RASM being basically flat is that much of the industry saw RASM increase by double-digit percentages. That's probably why an analyst might have downgraded them, especially considering that fuel is up dramatically year-over-year. But I think the numbers for Q2 will look better.


25 UAPremierGuy : Woah! Where do you get off saying something like that? UA, IMHO, is a much harder target than Frontier for WN. It has 5 domestic hubs, growing focus
26 Mariner : I am sure there was a thread like that. I recall several other threads taking the opposite tone. including the "gouging" thread. "Gouging" is a total
27 Post contains links Mariner : Perhaps. He has mildly changed his tune: http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm.../0,2777,DRMN_23912_4647890,00.html And now you see why the analyst do
28 Post contains images Texan : As would DEN-DAL Texan
29 AirFrnt : Internationally it was 10th world wide when DEN was fifth domestically. I expect it come up a bit. Not only do you cut off the rest of my statement (
30 Jmy007 : Pitty you feel that way. I use United from DEN all the time. I recently flew to OAK in first on UA, there was a meal. And describe what you mean by "
31 AirFRNT : I flew ORD to DEN about a month ago, on a 767. The cabin was extremly dirty, the plane was late, the bags took almost 40 minutes to come out. I was n
32 DAYflyer : It is no secret that UA has an inconsistent product.
33 Jmy007 : I understand that this was your exeprince with UA at Denver. I have been flying out of DEN for the better part of 6 years, and have not experinced wh
34 ScottB : And I think that he's come up with a better appraisal of the situation now. I had not known that Southwest (or anyone else for that matter) would req
35 AirFrnt : This will be the first year that I won't be at least United Premiere Executive. I was at 1k for two years. United's product has deteriorated dramatic
36 Mariner : We shall see. But at 60 departures a day within the foreseeable future, Southwest will be almost half the size of Frontier at DEN. I would not really
37 Scoljet : I agree with an earlier posting here regarding DEN-OMA-MDW. My argument would be for DEN-ICT-MDW. ICT has lost all of its MDW service and is currently
38 Iowaman : DEN-OMA-MDW is a not so smart idea. Why is anyone going to stop in OMA when they can fly multiple n/s DEN-MDW and the DEN-OMA O&D is already well ser
39 ScottB : Actually...I'm not sure that's entirely true. In all three daily non-stop markets added by Southwest at DEN, passenger numbers increased by significa
40 Mariner : Yet you have previously told me that the Southwest Effect is not infinitely exponential - that eventually there is a limit to the new traffic engende
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