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Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders  
User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 561 posts, RR: 8
Posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10353 times:

From the orders thread:

Airbus:

Totals
Gross: 90
Net: 66
Pending: 174

Boeing

Totals
Gross: 261
Net: 261
Pending: 260

With Net and pending added, that gives Boeing a 521 to 240 lead this year. Even that is misleading because Airbus has a much higher percentage of pending to firm orders. The poor quality pending orders are about equal: Primaris, Qatar -- maybe favoring Airbus a little. These numbers don't include the 24 jets ordered by AirTran.

However, it looks like a banner year after a slow start for Boeing. Farnborough might equal things out a little. SIA and EK's huge orders could make this a slaughter.

Airbus picked the wrong time in the cycle to get caught without a competitive widebody. To understand why this happened we only need to go back a couple of years:

Toronto Star, Dec 2003
Airbus SAS said Boeing Co. is greatly overestimating the potential market for the 7E7 Dreamliner and that it's not planning a response to the proposal because it already has a plane that's more economical. The Chicago-based plane maker is unlikely to sell more than 900 of the planes over the next 20 years, said John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer. Leahy also said that the A330-200, as it is, already offers operating economics comparable to the proposed Boeing plane. "We don't see that as an overwhelming case for the airlines to switch to Boeing's plane," he said.

[Edited 2006-04-27 20:58:59]


The dude abides
54 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6938 posts, RR: 77
Reply 1, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10322 times:

Quoting MrComet (Thread starter):
The poor quality pending orders are about equal: Primaris, Qatar

So you rate a possible Qatar Airways order as a "poor quality" order?

Quoting MrComet (Thread starter):
However, it looks like a banner year after a slow start for Boeing. Farnborough might equal things out a little. SIA and EK's huge orders could make this a slaughter.

And we shouldn't forget the ILA in May. As I said before - it's too early to judge the order race.


PH

[Edited 2006-04-27 21:12:35]


Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2829 posts, RR: 42
Reply 2, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10322 times:

Just wait. Airbus hordes orders for the airshows where they can "trounce" Boing in Public.

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21580 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10299 times:

The year is young. Relax people.

Doesn't everyone know Airbus sells 75% of their planes at airshows, and sells 50% of their planes in December, which means they still have 125% of their orders yet to come?  Wink



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 561 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10299 times:

Sorry Planehunter for not being more specific. The 777s for Qatar are certainly a poor quality order as they have said they might not get them. The A350s is probably a sure Airbus order but for what A350 and for what time frame? That makes it a little tentative for being signed this year in any case.


The dude abides
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31387 posts, RR: 85
Reply 5, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10270 times:
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http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060426/sfw160.html?.v=3 states that the 787 production line is now completely sold out for the first three years, so that might help kick-start some A350 sales soon.

[Edited 2006-04-27 21:15:05]

User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 561 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10240 times:

Yeah, but Boeing also said they'll decide in September whether they'll open a second one. I am sure that is being discussed in any active negotiation. They wouldn't have studied this unless it was something they were getting pressured on.

[Edited 2006-04-27 21:16:08]


The dude abides
User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6938 posts, RR: 77
Reply 7, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10214 times:

Quoting MrComet (Reply 4):
Sorry Planehunter for not being more specific. The 777s for Qatar are certainly a poor quality order as they have said they might not get them.

Ok, got your idea.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2):
Just wait. Airbus hordes orders for the airshows where they can "trounce" Boing in Public.

True, and the media jump on it. The PR machine works perfectly during airshows.


PH



Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10128 times:

There's a good article in BusinessWeek today:
Boeing Straightens Up and Flies Right

Quote:
The company's stock has jumped nearly 50% in the past year. It is posting record earnings and aircraft sales. Meanwhile, the company's defense business remains strong.

Boeing generated $5.5 billion in free cash flow last year, up from $2.3 billion in 2004.

Another key to Boeing's success: a better sales mix. The company is winning the majority of widebody airplane orders, which generate much higher profit margins than do smaller, narrowbody jets. In 2005 it booked 438 widebody orders, vs. just 166 for chief rival Airbus. Those sales are boosting Boeing's profit margins to new heights.

Commercial airplane operating margins have averaged just 4.5% over the past 25 years and have never exceeded 10.3% for a full year during that period. Boeing is forecasting commercial airplane margins of over 10% next year and possibly 12% after 2008.

http://businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnfl.../apr2006/nf20060427_0379_db016.htm


User currently offlineStarrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1129 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 10095 times:

Every year here in Boston our local baseball team shoots up to first place in the league and looks wonderful. But we know this, the common saying is "See me in September." (just before the playoffs)

Airbus saves order for airshows. Last year in June they booked 288 orders at the airshow. (interestingly, the Qatar orders have still not been firmed.)

See me in January.



Knowledge Replaces Fear
User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3437 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 9998 times:

I love seeing airlines around the world buy new planes etc, and am not entirely favourable to either boeing or airbus although my airline of choice is more of a boeing customer than airbus, however, while airbus may leave orders for airhows, after last year- who's gonna announce orders at Farnborough???
SQ, EK, EY, GF, CI, More Chinese orders, Latin American Carriers, IB, LH, AF, KL, BA????? while it may seem like a lot, I think most mof those carriers can go either way when it comes to A380, A350 and 787, 777, 748, so really Airbus could potentially not have THAT many orders to announce.

Now i'm not saying Airbus is dead blah blah blah like mahy here like to do, but I am saying Airbus must be concerned since many airlines have already chosen the 787 and it is likely that for one reason or another others may follow suit.

Cheers
AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 9950 times:

Quoting MrComet (Thread starter):
Farnborough might equal things out a little.

Farnborough might reverse it, though that would be a big surprise.


User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 9881 times:

Quoting Starrion (Reply 9):
Airbus saves order for airshows. Last year in June they booked 288 orders at the airshow. (interestingly, the Qatar orders have still not been firmed.)

I think you are confusing "announced" with "booked". At the end of June, they actually booked 80 orders, with a further 23 in July. As you say, the Qatar "order" still has not been booked.


User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 561 posts, RR: 8
Reply 13, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 9820 times:

Well, Airbus didn't impress in Singapore. While I agree that Singapore isn't as big as Paris or Farnsborough, it would be the logical place to announce sales in the hottest market. One down, three to go.

I agree Airbus can expect a bounce at the airshows, but I wouldn't expect a reversal. As far as the Leahy's year end sale event (which seems to end in February), that might be why Airbus is so far behind. He cannibalized the Chinese and other sales to add them to last years numbers.

I think the EK and SIA announcements are the key. That's about 150 to 200 planes. That is enough to swing it even or give Boeing an insurmountable lead.

It still looks to be a good year for everyone. The industry is on track for 1200 to 1500 planes this year -- enough to build backlog again. Wow.



The dude abides
User currently offlineBoeingfanyyz From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 991 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 9820 times:

Best news I've heard all day.

Interesting, though, how the 380 has not really boosted Airbus' sales. I guess it's probably another failure, like th 340 series.

Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz  airplane 

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely mine and were not meant to hurt Airbus supporters' feelings.*



"If it aint boeing, it aint going!", "Friends are like condoms...they protect you when things get hard!"
User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 9760 times:

With Boeing up to 310 announced B737 orders in the first 4 months, they are on a pace to break last year's record of 574.

Total B737 orders are now over 6400!


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 16, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9356 times:

Quoting Starrion (Reply 9):
Airbus saves order for airshows

I agree that they sometimes defer announcements for a month or two, Starrion (and others). But someone will have to explain to me what the business sense of deferring the announcement of ALL orders until July could be?

This month so far, Boeing have announced 109 firm orders (the 85 already on their website, plus 24 for Airtran announced today). Airbus have announced just 5 (the A340s for Kingfisher). That brings the annual totals so far to Boeing 285, Airbus 95. I can't believe that Airbus would deliberately allow the figures to show a 3:1 advantage to Boeing for three whole months, just to make some sort of 'splash' at Farnborough in July.

In any case, if Airbus do in fact have literally hundreds of 'hidden orders', how did they secure the agreement of the airlines concerned to deferring the announcements? Airlines have shareholders too, and it is the duty of management to keep the shareholders informed. If any airlines have in fact placed billions of dollars' worth of firm orders and then agreed to keep the facts secret for three months, surely their management will be 'swinging from the yardarms' the moment their shareholders find out about the deception?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21580 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9293 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
how did they secure the agreement of the airlines concerned to deferring the announcements?

well, that's not hard. in many industries agreements are reached and announced at trade shows. it brings PR to everyone involved, it also creates a kind of artificial deadline to force both parties to come to terms on sticking points, etc.

not to say that's how everyone does it, but it isn't such a huge imposition.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 18, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9261 times:

Agree entirely that the placing of orders is often timed to suit publicity needs, Ikramerica. But the implication in this case is that actual ORDERS are being placed, but not announced. I don't reckon that a delay of several months between orders and announcements is credible in business terms.

If, as you suggest, Airbus are delaying the actual placement of orders to suit airshow timings, it follows that those are not 'orders' at all; we're back to Forgeard's favourite term, 'commitments'.

But if that IS the case, I can't see Airbus voluntarily delaying signature of orders they could secure right now, as far ahead as July, for publicity reasons. After all, one bomb on Iran and all such 'commitments' would evaporate......



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 561 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9239 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
in many industries agreements are reached and announced at trade shows.

Yes, but NAV20s point is a good one....it's unlikely Airbus is hording large numbers of firm sales to wait months for an airshow. Many airlines have fiduciary responsibilities to announce done deals that affect stock price and to withhold this data for too long would be wrong.

Airbus salesmen might be targeting customers to make decisions in time for airshows and withholding announcements around an airshow but I think that the order numbers reflect a fast start for Boeing and a slow start for Airbus. That can be coincidence, sure. But one-third of the year is finished and while Boeing has added significantly to its backlog, Airbus might be actually decreasing it. And the pending orders which are usually the near time final orders don't look so hot either.

As a possible investor, i would also be concerned. Airbus has had lots of order cancellations and many of the orders on its books don't look so good.

My point isn't to bash Airbus .... its way of accounting for sales just isn't as consistent or as conservative as Boeings. It does reflect what i think is a possible new reality -- this may be the big turning year in sales for Boeing if SIA and EK breaks their way.

[Edited 2006-04-28 06:25:26]


The dude abides
User currently offlineIrobertson From Canada, joined Apr 2006, 601 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9195 times:

How many weeks or years will go on before people just give up posting on these ridiculous "Airbus sucks Boeing is better, and they're getting more orders, and the A350 is crap and needs to be redesigned thirty two more times and after that it will still suck..."

People. Puh-lease. I am tired of seeing another A vs B thread making the top list on the front page. It's pointless, it's inconclusive, and its a waste of space and bandwidth. Lets talk about something a tad more interesting on this forum besides having two dozen active threads on the never ending debate about which company makes better airplanes.

*steps off soapbox* Thank you, I needed to get that off my chest. And flame me, go ahead, see if I give a damn!


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9178 times:

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 20):
How many weeks or years will go on before people just give up posting on these ridiculous "Airbus sucks Boeing is better, and they're getting more orders, and the A350 is crap and needs to be redesigned thirty two more times and after that it will still suck..."

1)you don't have to participate on these threads... Wink
2)should have been around a few years ago when the Airbus kool-aid cheerleaders were having a field day at Boeing's expense...
3)this is an aviation forum, and the topics discussed are some of the most important in the industry...especially given how ILFC and SQ have talked about the A350 (it will do fine in sales)
4)welcome to A.net.. Smile

by the way, I love both...Boeing and Airbus..


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"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6938 posts, RR: 77
Reply 22, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9074 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
I agree that they sometimes defer announcements for a month or two, Starrion (and others). But someone will have to explain to me what the business sense of deferring the announcement of ALL orders until July could be?

As I said before - we shouldn't forget the Internationale Luft- und Raumfahrtausstellung in Berlin (ILA), taking place only a few weeks from now in May. Airbus has always announced massive orders at the show in the past. The show is an Airbus playground so I would very surprised not to see any important orders.

PH



Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 23, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9036 times:

Fair point, PH. And they have their Annual General Meeting, and announce their final 2005 figures/first qtr. 2006 results/2006 'outlook', on Thursday of next week.

To paraphrase the old saying, 'We shall hear what we shall hear.'  

[Edited 2006-04-28 08:54:44]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 561 posts, RR: 8
Reply 24, posted (8 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8884 times:

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 20):
How many weeks or years will go on before people just give up posting on these ridiculous "Airbus sucks Boeing is better, and they're getting more orders, and the A350 is crap and needs to be redesigned thirty two more times and after that it will still suck..."

In a horse race, I guess the person betting on the horse that is bring up the rear is always going to not like any analysis on the race. I don't dislike Airbus and Boeing and why do you assume any criticism of Airbus is bashing.

I see it as an interesting industrial issue. Airbus made the same mistake Detroit automakers did on the eve of the 1973 embargo -- they emphasized big gas guzzling cars that made good profits. They've done it again with their SUVs. The Japanese auto makers weren't smart -- their cars just happened to be tailor made for chronic gas shortages and high price so they won big. Airbus went big. Boeing almost did too with the Sonic Cruiser.

Airbus will be in the race again but not for awhile. The A350 is the first step and its interesting to see what they will do.



The dude abides
25 Manni : Not sure what orders you are talking about, they all seem to be pretty safe. Even the BG pending order has been put back on the agenda by the airline
26 Glideslope : Those were the days when operators actually trusted them. IMO, those days no longer exhist. Period. Airbus needs to make drastic changes in it's oper
27 Post contains links PanAm_DC10 : How about a bit of equality in the outlook for the year? Ok, so Boeing have started very well with last years momentum carrying over and they are book
28 Post contains images Danny : Thank God you have a clue.
29 Post contains links and images Halibut : PH, I too would not be too surprised to see some important orders for Airbus at Farnborough "A320's". However , this year for Airbus is unique . Lets
30 AA1818 : Was that really necessary????? Instead of complaining about someone else's opinion or making somewhat personal attacks, why not give an opinion or so
31 VinnieWinnie : And by expressing your well known view confirmed by your nickname you are contributing to this silly A vs B war! Both haven't said their last words.
32 Starrion : "Only on 2006-12-31 will we be able to acknowledge who the real "winner" is!" You mean 2007-1-31 don't you? I think we are seeing the start of a revol
33 Post contains images Stitch : One could say the same about LH, SQ, VS, QF, EK, AF, and all the other airlines who ordered the A380. But one shouldn't. Just as one shouldn't say th
34 KLMCedric : Interesting, though, how your post has not really boosted this threads quality. I guess it's probably another failure, like many of your other posts!
35 Post contains images BoomBoom : I can't see what's in it for the airline. When an airline like Air Pacific announces a small order for the 787 in April, it gets to have the limeligh
36 Jacobin777 : Every single frame which you mentioned would easily be taken up by other carriers who have already ordered them...and QR did Boeing a favour by not t
37 AirFrnt : And more importantly, are there any orders that can be cooked for the books. I really think that Boeing is going to pull the numbers this year (and I
38 474218 : I don't see how any airline can have a "firm order" for the A350 when Airbus does not have a "firm" design. The final design that Airbus settles on m
39 NAV20 : Funnily enough, AirFrnt, Airbus just announced orders for five A340s from Kingfisher. That's the good news. The bad news is that (believe it or not)
40 Post contains images Stitch : Considering the comments Airbus is getting about the A350, I would think it would be to their distinct disadvantage to wait until July and then sudde
41 Post contains images PlaneHunter : That statements lacks any logic. The manufacturer's best selling A320 family hasn't actually changed much since last year - though you suggest "opera
42 NAV20 : Unfortunately, PH, the A320 ain't selling too well either. Airbus have sold only 70 so far this year (none yet this month), against 236 737s sold.
43 Manni : Sure, but the backlog would shrink faster. Yes, but the QR 787 order wasn't really lost by Boeing, since they never commited to them. It's the 777 or
44 PlaneHunter : Which is definitely not a result of "lost trust" as the poster had suggested. And I can only ask again: are four months enough to judge anything? PH
45 Jacobin777 : infinitismal given their massive (and ever growing backlog) yes..that might have been a loss for Boeing (I'm assuming that QR will go with the A346),
46 MrComet : Again, thanks to Hamlet69 and his orders thread, here are the Airbus pending orders. Some are wrong as my numbers don't match. Pending Air Blue - 8 A3
47 BoeingBus : Most likely, those slots are for the EK order Airbus lost. So it's still negative 8 or 15. Not sure the exact A346 EK had on order... 12 + 8 options?
48 MrComet : I am not sure EK "lost" the order. Airbus started talking upgrade of the A340 and so they put the order on hold until Airbus decided which planes it w
49 Post contains links Manni : Some possible errors,... The ILFC order has been firmed up in march. The frontier order was firmed up in februari.. The Jagson commitment is for 14 a
50 PanAm_DC10 : To add to Manni's response which has corrected most errors; Some definate errors; Taken on lease via ILFC Booked firm on 29 December 2005 as undisclos
51 Post contains images A319XFW : There's one in the delivery centre in XFW at the moment (A319 MSN 2762 IIRC).
52 MrComet : Thank you Manni and Pan Am for the updates. I need to leave this for the pros....for the record: Pending Adam Air - 30 A320 Air Blue - 8 A320, 2 A330-
53 PanAm_DC10 : You're welcome MrComet However one more clarification if I may sir; Booked firm, originally as "undisclosed", on November 9, 2005. Regards, PanAm_DC1
54 Lehpron : Why judge at all?
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