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Has Jetblue Plateaued?  
User currently offlineCadet57 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 9085 posts, RR: 30
Posted (8 years 3 months 3 weeks ago) and read 2376 times:

They are starting to run into problems: money is becoming tight, expansion is slowing, Prices are going up. To me, B6 isn't the darling of the industry it once was. Shattering records, record growth, phenomenal passenger numbers and record profit. We really don't hear that now. Is it almost time they went down that mountain? Now I don't mean Bk or anything. I mean, becoming what most of the airlines are now, struggling.

Thoughts?


Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineWMUPilot From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 1473 posts, RR: 12
Reply 1, posted (8 years 3 months 3 weeks ago) and read 2360 times:

I really find it extremely funny how many people on this board are coming out of the wood work to spell out JetBlue's demise. What I would like so hear is an well thought out answer as to why so many people on this board want to see JetBlue fail.


JetBlue - Bringing humanity back to air travel
User currently offlineJetBluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2977 posts, RR: 14
Reply 2, posted (8 years 3 months 3 weeks ago) and read 2330 times:

This topic has truly been beaten to death. No offense or anything, but if you do a search - on each and every JetBlue thread (and even some non-JetBlue ones) - you can find someone predicting the bankrupcy of JetBlue in the near future.

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineBobster2 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 3 months 3 weeks ago) and read 2317 times:

In geology and earth science, a plateau, also called a tableland, is an area of highland, usually consisting of relatively flat open country if the uplift was recent in geologic history. Plateaus (or plâteaux), like mesas and buttes, are formed when land has been uplifted by tectonic activity and then eroded by wind or water. Flat-topped, sheer-sided plateaus, like the tepuis of Guiana, are formed when a section of land is uplifted that is topped with a layer of particularly resistant rock, and underlain by softer rock.

Is jetblue a tableland? No.


User currently onlineDualQual From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 763 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2317 times:

I don't think the thread was started to predict a demise, rather ask a legit question. I don't think anyone can deny that B6 is starting to encounter some issues (expansion, new fleet type, rising costs). It's something that every airline goes through in it's respective life cycle (I am not trying to insinuate that B6 is near the end of it's cycle either). The question is that B6 is starting to encounter some of the growing pains, what will be the likely plan of attack to get through the tough times that are forecasted?

User currently offlineSuperhub From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2006, 478 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2301 times:

Quoting WMUPilot (Reply 1):
What I would like so hear is an well thought out answer as to why so many people on this board want to see JetBlue fail.

Nobody wants to see Jetblue fail.

The question the thread starter asked was whether Jetblue is, after all the hype surrounding its phenomenal growth, not so phenomenal.

It has nothing to do with wanting to see Jetblue fail. And I don't see what is so bad about spelling out Jetblue's "demise." (in your own words...but Jetblue is not in demise is it?) In many things like sport and financial performance, there is often a fall-back to a more average performance after a period of excellent ones. In sport, there is something called the Sophomore slump in the US, and the Manager of the Month curse in England. They both indirectly indicate that a person/team falls back to average after a period of excellent results.

The question people are asking now is...is Jetblue falling back to something average? If so, then whether its special formula for early success is actually immune to the problems other airlines are facing.

Perfectly healthy discussion if you ask me.

[Edited 2006-05-04 03:42:32]

User currently offlineWMUPilot From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 1473 posts, RR: 12
Reply 6, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2284 times:

Growing pains, yes. Look at AirTran they too posted a small loss this last quarter. So what are they doing. Same thing as us. Working to be profitable in the following quarters.

How many LCCs have more than 1 aircraft type? AirTran (737, 717) Spirit(A319, A320, A321, MD80), Frontier (A318, A319, A320, 737?), USAirways (737, 757, 767, A319, A320, A321, A330), JetBlue (A320, E190). The only one that stays with 1 aircraft is Southwest with the 737 aircraft. The main problem that we had with our second type is that the E190 is a brand new aircraft and it has had a ton of software problems that have done more than hurt our bottom line. However I would suspect that come the last 3 Quarters of 2006 and all of 2007 will see a better bottom line once the kinks are worked out of the E190.

Over excitement and over expansion are what killed us last year and the beginning of this year. We went right to the long haul when fuel prices where low and didn't look as to what the future had instore and we plumb forgot to hedge. Management screwed up royally and they know it and now they are saying opps we need to change things to get back in the black. It's awsome that they are redoing the business plan now instead of waiting until we get further in debt and force us into CH11.



JetBlue - Bringing humanity back to air travel
User currently offlineAlias1024 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 2753 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2224 times:

Quoting WMUPilot (Reply 6):
How many LCCs have more than 1 aircraft type? AirTran (737, 717) Spirit(A319, A320, A321, MD80), Frontier (A318, A319, A320, 737?), USAirways (737, 757, 767, A319, A320, A321, A330), JetBlue (A320, E190). The only one that stays with 1 aircraft is Southwest with the 737 aircraft.

Frontier only operates the A318 and A319, with A320s or order. However, all are members of the same family, have common parts (reducing inventory), and have a common type rating. From a crew and maintenance standpoint, it is like operating one fleet type. Spirit is in the process of converting to an all A320 family fleet, which will allow them to share the same benefits.

From a commonality standpoint, there is probably more in common between the Airbuses at Frontier and Spirit, than the three 737 types at WN. Remember, Southwest has older generation (300s and 500s), along with the next generation 700s.



It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
User currently offlineDtwclipper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2142 times:

Quoting Cadet57 (Thread starter):
They are starting to run into problems: money is becoming tight, expansion is slowing, Prices are going up. To me, B6 isn't the darling of the industry it once was. Shattering records, record growth, phenomenal passenger numbers and record profit. We really don't hear that now. Is it almost time they went down that mountain? Now I don't mean Bk or anything. I mean, becoming what most of the airlines are now, struggling.

Sounds more like a quote about Peoplexpress!


User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12090 posts, RR: 49
Reply 9, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2102 times:

Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 8):
Sounds more like a quote about Peoplexpress!

Yes when we have nothing original to add lets drag out that tired analogy.



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineDtwclipper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2089 times:

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 9):
Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 8):
Sounds more like a quote about Peoplexpress!

Yes when we have nothing original to add lets drag out that tired analogy.

Hey, you know what they say, "if the jetway fits, use it".


User currently offlineSimpilicity From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2081 times:

look we all know a major is the U.S. is going to go down the toilet soon. When that occurs the likes of Jetblue, Southwest, Airtran ext. will quickly fill the viod domestically in the U.S.

The real question is which major is going out the back door 1st?


User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4316 posts, RR: 28
Reply 12, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2054 times:

Quoting WMUPilot (Reply 1):
What I would like so hear is an well thought out answer as to why so many people on this board want to see JetBlue fail.

Really? I don't get that impression at all. Of course, there are a few on the one extreme who think B6 will fail (and who may actually want to see it fail). Probably just as many at the other end of the spectrum who think B6 can do no wrong. IMO, the vast majority, from reading these threads, do in fact seem to think B6 has plateaued (as do I).

But that is not a bad thing.

In fact, most B-schools will teach you that new businesses will have a fast or even spectacular start before eventually hitting a plateau. That usually happens when initial V.C. funding as well as other forms of initial financing runs out and the business has to survive on its "differentiated" business model.

To plateau is not a bad sign. What is a bad sign is if the company cannot continue on at least a modest growth path or even if it starts to go south.

This point in a company's history is actually a critical one because it will in effect "separate the men from the boys" (my apologies in advance to any female readers for such a sexist metaphor) and identify whether or not the business' model is viable or not.

Put another way, this is where many companies are hardened and separated from those that are a mere "flash-in-the-pan" (think Laker Air or even People Express).

Quoting Superhub (Reply 5):
The question people are asking now is...is Jetblue falling back to something average? If so, then whether its special formula for early success is actually immune to the problems other airlines are facing.

The question is what has allowed B6 to offer the differentiated services (meaning truly superior service -- I know because I've flown them a couple of times) it has at such a low cost and still remain successful. In the short term it has been successful. But, in the final analysis, the real question is whether or not it can continue to remain successful without becoming one of many like-airlines.

To me, F9 is in many respects similar to B6 but they are a more modest (from a growth standpoint) airline. They've been around in their current iteration a lot longer and even though they may be bleeding red at the moment, they don't seem to be suffering from "withdrawal" symptoms. Indeed, if I were a betting man (which, by the way, I am) I'd wager that F9 will be around in 10 years in its current form then would B6.

Not to say that B6 will not be around, but that it will be a whole different animal. (I couldn't resist saying that!)



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12090 posts, RR: 49
Reply 13, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2039 times:

Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 10):
Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 9):
Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 8):
Sounds more like a quote about Peoplexpress!

Yes when we have nothing original to add lets drag out that tired analogy.

Hey, you know what they say, "if the jetway fits, use it".

Well at least they compare them to an airline that changed the industry, not one like New York Air that few if any remember!



You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineBobster2 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2036 times:

For the umteenth time, here's the story: JetBlue was able to hire great, highly trained, skilled workers at low wages because they got laid off from other airlines and just wanted to work again for anybody. But wages go up. Oil prices go up. Maintenance costs go up. Etc.

jetBlue is like other legacy airlines, the main difference is that they are a tiny niche airline that only flies to NY, FL, CA, Las Vegas, and redeyes to handful of other cities.

If you want to fly jetBlue, you have to get to one of their cities on some other airline, because jetBlue most likely can't get to where you live.

[Edited 2006-05-04 05:42:29]

User currently offlineSuperhub From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2006, 478 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 1880 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 12):

The question is what has allowed B6 to offer the differentiated services (meaning truly superior service -- I know because I've flown them a couple of times) it has at such a low cost and still remain successful. In the short term it has been successful. But, in the final analysis, the real question is whether or not it can continue to remain successful without becoming one of many like-airlines.

To me, F9 is in many respects similar to B6 but they are a more modest (from a growth standpoint) airline. They've been around in their current iteration a lot longer and even though they may be bleeding red at the moment, they don't seem to be suffering from "withdrawal" symptoms. Indeed, if I were a betting man (which, by the way, I am) I'd wager that F9 will be around in 10 years in its current form then would B6.

Not to say that B6 will not be around, but that it will be a whole different animal. (I couldn't resist saying that!)

Couldn't have said it better myself


User currently offlineGoingboeing From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4875 posts, RR: 16
Reply 16, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 1824 times:

Quoting WMUPilot (Reply 1):
I really find it extremely funny how many people on this board are coming out of the wood work to spell out JetBlue's demise. What I would like so hear is an well thought out answer as to why so many people on this board want to see JetBlue fail.

Because they are jealouse of success. Look at how many are licking their chops at Southwest's expiring fuel hedges. FWIW, I've only been critical of Jetblue's stock price...I think it was overvalued ever since they went public.

Jetblue had the luxury of a boatload of startup cash...I did question the wisdom of putting their headquarters in one of the most expensive cities in America, and while IFE seems to be the rage of the day, I cannot help but think it adds a few cents to the CASM - especially as it ages and requires more maintenance...is it worth the extra cost so someone can watch ESPN in the air? And I have also tended to compare their rapid growth with People Express. However - the biggest difference between JetBlue and People is that People expanded first and then dealt (unsuccessfully) with the problems. At least Jetblue is recognizing that the climate is not right for a huge expansion at this point in time and is holding off and proceeding with slower growth. That's a pretty wise move.

There's the arguement that Jetblue was waiting for the failure of one of the big boys (US or UAL). Maybe so...and why shouldn't they. I thought in a capitalistic society, strong companies prospered and weak ones fell. But Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code seems to favor the weaker companies. And those weaker companies defer payments - eliminate debt - and engage in fare wars that strong LCC's could only dream of leading. IMHO, had the bankruptcy laws been a bit stricter, we would have two fewer legacy carriers, and we would have seen two fewer legacy carriers enter bankruptcy, and we would be looking at a healthier industry - both for the LCC's and the surviving legacies. Jetblue (and Southwest) have been accused of adding even more capcity to a system that was already suffering from overcapacity. I tend to think that they were planning for what would have been a huge drop in capacity had the bankruptcy courts not provided such liberal protection to the other airlines. Had "nature taken it's course", there would have been huge gaps in capacity that would have been quickly filled by all surviving carriers - JetBlue and Southwest didn't have a fleet of jetliners parked in a desert, waiting to be quickly deployed should that have happened.


User currently offlineCadet57 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 9085 posts, RR: 30
Reply 17, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 1723 times:

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 2):
This topic has truly been beaten to death. No offense or anything, but if you do a search - on each and every JetBlue thread (and even some non-JetBlue ones) - you can find someone predicting the bankrupcy of JetBlue in the near future.

Im not asking about bk. If you bothered to read my question, specifically this sencence:

Quoting Cadet57 (Thread starter):
ow I don't mean Bk or anything. I mean, becoming what most of the airlines are now, struggling.


You can see im trying to ask a valid point....

Quoting WMUPilot (Reply 1):
I really find it extremely funny how many people on this board are coming out of the wood work to spell out JetBlue's demise

Im not, read above  sarcastic 

Quoting WMUPilot (Reply 1):
What I would like so hear is an well thought out answer as to why so many people on this board want to see JetBlue fail.

I dont....

Quoting Bobster2 (Reply 3):
Is jetblue a tableland? No.

 sarcastic  nuff said.



Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
User currently offlineTallguy14 From United States of America, joined Jul 2002, 228 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 1562 times:
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IMHO, JetBlue is no longer the brash upstart and has settled uneasily into "regular airline" status. That's not sexy, and most people lose interest with anything that's lost its shine and newness.

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