Seatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 829 posts, RR: 0 Posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 14128 times:
Planebusiness.com has put Frontier on its Titanic Watch list (bankruptcy watch) saying that due to its weak RASM numbers, the airline needs to do something drastic, such as a merger, acquisition, new management etc...
MaartenV From Netherlands, joined Aug 2005, 271 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 14081 times:
I have never heard of Planebusiness.com before, although that doesn't have to mean anything of course...
They have been ordering a couple of A320s lately so I guess the management themselves are not really that worried about the future, although (again) that doesn't have to mean anything of course...
RASM means something like Revenue Average Seat Mile right, so if that number is decreasing, I assume that means less yields? If they decreased it themselves (by lowering fares, to increase the number of seats sold) in a way that the revenue created by these extra chairs is bigger then the decrease in revenue of the other chairs, then it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
If its caused by increased competition (healthier UA, WN entering DEN),or higher costs, or when they don't sell any extra seats, but just the same number for a lower price, then they could be in trouble.
Would replacing the (so far) reasonable successful management team really put them back on track (IF they are off). I think a merger would be more appropriate, since they might be to small to continue operating like a hub and spoke LCC in today's environment.
NAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 4, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 14032 times:
Sorry - I've been laying off Airbus recently (enough is enough) but I can't resist commenting on the perfect timing of this EADS press release:-
"Toulouse, 02 May 2006 - Frontier Airlines, of Denver, Colorado, has finalized a contract for six A320s, the first time the low-cost carrier has selected the aircraft type. The incremental order comes less than one year after Frontier converted to an all-Airbus operator. Also as part of the agreement, Frontier is converting four of its existing A319 orders to A320s, and four other previously ordered A319s to four A318s. Frontier will receive its ten A320 aircraft starting in early 2008 through 2010 and the A318 aircraft in 2007. In addition to these new Airbus orders, Frontier anticipates obtaining three additional A319 aircraft through arrangements with leasing companies."
SPREE34 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 2415 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 14018 times:
I don't believe Frontier's demise is any thing to worry about. If the sky did fall, think of what a nice addition to the New USAir the company would make. Good people, good equipment, overall good hub (DEN).
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
DLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13960 times:
Frontier's RASM rose in April compared to April the previus year, Yields rose over the same period, Load Factor rose (actually it's been a very long time since LF hasn't risen), they've played a very conservative game and are now confident enough to order a larger fleet type...why would they be going Titanic?
Steeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9412 posts, RR: 16
Reply 9, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13912 times:
Quoting MaartenV (Reply 7): Wouldn't a third western hub be a bit much for US?
Maybe a focus city... They have a hub in PHX and a focus city in LAS. How many flights does F9 operate out of DEN?
Yeah, with the fall-out of F9 (which I DO NOT want to see...) US would get A319/A318 aircraft which would build up their fleet quite a bit. I was about to say that they could start to phase out their 733 and 734s but that is not necessary for them at this point I don't think...
I don't see US being the only beneficiary of such a thing though... What about UA? I was about to say B6 but they're downsizing their fleet last time I checked. That, and they don't fly A319s... UA I believe has A319s though.
Coming back to the US hub/focus city and the fact that UA has a considerable hub there, would US want another large operation where another star alliance carrier already has a hub?
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
Aa757first From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3350 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 13586 times:
Quoting SPREE34 (Reply 6): If the sky did fall, think of what a nice addition to the New USAir the company would make. Good people, good equipment, overall good hub (DEN).
It's hard enough to integrate two fleets, two sets of equipment, two technology systems, two groups of employees, two route networks, etc without adding an additional set. It's safe to say US Airways would have no interest whatsoever in aquring Frontier, or any other carrier.
CWAFlyer From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 698 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 13525 times:
Planebusiness.com used to be the place to get the dirt on all the airlines.
The message boards were pretty good too, but about 5-6 years ago,
they made it a subscription service. I don't know anyone that
has a subscription, so I don't know if it's any good or not.
ExFATboy From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2974 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 13498 times:
I used to read Holly's site before it went subscription, and even had a subscription for a little while. To paraphrase the joke about economists, she's correctly predicted 10 of the last 1 airline failures...
Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 9): Coming back to the US hub/focus city and the fact that UA has a considerable hub there, would US want another large operation where another star alliance carrier already has a hub?
Well, I don't see a F9-US merger in the cards, but if there was, it'd be a sure sign that US is looking forward and seeing that UA may want them out of Star in the long run...
Burnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7923 posts, RR: 8
Reply 14, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 13498 times:
Just because an airline orders planes in bad times doesn't mean anything. NW converted its options for A330's in BK. Of course companies are going to plan for the fact that they will make it out just fine. It doesnt mean anything that they ordered or converted planes, or even taken delivery of them. Just because your not doing well doesnt mean you are going to stop taking planes and such. NW is still taking all of theirs on-time for example.
L1329II From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 13162 times:
Quoting Mariner (Reply 18): Oh, please - I really don't want to see Frontier sacrificed to the ego of David Neeleman.
Oh come on hes not that bad... but I get your point. I doubt that will happen. Does B6 want the hassle of unions? Doesnt F9 have an FA union? What will they be willing to bear?
Also do they have the capital to do so? And with B6's losses this year it wouldnt make sense for anyone to invest in the aquisition or not make sense for B6 to get themselves involved with this if they have issues of thier own!
Although, unions aside, this would be a perfect matchup.
Kohflot From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 12889 times:
Frontier in trouble?
How bout a purchase by Southwest, run as a completely seperate entity?
Southwest could then get all the lovely A-concourse gates at DEN. All the Airbii could be moved to DFW and create a nice new little hub in the D and E concourses - eventually complete with a broadened Mexico schedule.. say, to CUN, CZM, MEX, BJX, GDL, MTY, SJD, MZT, PVR for starters (assuming there's availability in the 'slot'-controlled routes).. maybe even throw in a few Central America or Caribbean routes.
Eventually, the Airbii could be expanded to international flights from HOU, SAT, ELP, ABQ, and PHX.. effectively working as the south-of-the-border arm of WN..
Such a combination would:
* 'Take out' F9 as Boyd prognosticates without actually destroying the revenue F9 brings in
* Put the hurt on UA and AA simultaneously
* Give RapidRewards members access to international markets
* Compete with CO in US-Mexico markets
* Put the costly Wright fight on hold for the time being
* Keep DFW's E-gates out of someone else's hands (sure, no one wants them now, but that'll change)
* Shield the WN route system from the complications of international flying
I think the only downside would be consumer confusion with seat assignments and boarding a WN/F9 plane at DFW with different amenities than a WN 737. But, how long is it before WN has assigned seating anyway?
Socalfive From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 12738 times:
Quoting L1329II (Reply 19): Although, unions aside, this would be a perfect matchup
JetBlue has to face Union Labor sooner or later, they all do.
Quoting PSA727 (Reply 21): If Frontier were to merge, or be acquired by anybody, my money
would go to AirTran, even though they operate different fleets.
Too different for the intelligence of Airtran management to consider for even a second. Airtran/Alaska, fleet and routes work
Quoting Kohflot (Reply 22): think the only downside would be consumer confusion with seat assignments and boarding a WN/F9 plane at DFW with different amenities than a WN 737. But, how long is it before WN has assigned seating anyway?
The downside is thinking there's any part of this idea that works. WN may go forever without assigned seating. They study it closely, so far, they haven't felt the need. It's quicker to turn the plane without it. Remember, what isn't broke doesn't need a friggin fix.
Don't laugh, in 2002 I predicted the US/HP merger, long before even Doug Parker. Routes/Fleets and weaknesses strengthened through merger. Look it over. The success of the US merger is proving a new round of consolidations is coming soon, stay tuned.