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200 Size A380 Planes For China!  
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 10884 times:

http://www.zonebourse.com/zbat.php?c...ezb=4637&page=pageactu&idnw=196445

In less than 20 years , prediction is more than 200 size A380 planes for China !!!!!!
The market is there for both A380 and 747-8 , and perhaps for A380-900.
Impressive !!!!!!!!!

16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAeri28 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 706 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 10791 times:

Your title is misleading. Maybe start it with "Prediction: 200 ..... in 20 years"

User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10710 times:

au moins? That means at least 200 of that size, or what??

Also says that China will have 4,000 planes by 2025.

All the nice oil goes there.  crazy 


User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 12145 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10692 times:
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This prediction doesn't surprise me one bit considering Asia and China has the biggest population mass

User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10554 times:

Aeri28

Right , i should have been clearer , however this thread can interest quite many people.

Thorben

Yes , "au moins" means at least.So 200 is the minimum number that China could require in the A380 size plane market.


User currently offlineNaritaflyer From Japan, joined Apr 2006, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10303 times:

This sounds good but wait until China gets into the large commercial aircraft production business. The excitement about China's growth is due to the potential for sales of Boeing or Airbus aircraft. But once they get in the production business they may need to buy fewer aircraft from outside sources.

User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10150 times:

From the article:

"Le China Daily qui rapporte ses informations, précise que la Chine a besoin d'au moins 200 porteurs comme l'A 380. Airbus a vu sa part de marché croître de 7% en 1995 à 34% en 2005. D'ici 2013, l'avionneur européen mise sur le contrôle de 50% du marché."
My translation:

"This report from China Daily states that China needs at least 200 aircraft like the A380. Airbus has seen its market share grow from 7% in 1995 to 34% in 2005. The European plane manufacturer is aiming for 50% of the market by 2013."

I guess that "200 aircraft like the A380" means 200 VLA. If Airbus secures its intended 50% of the Chinese market, that suggests a number of 100 A380's and 100 748's. The split could turn out to be almost anything. Up to 150 748's or 150 A380's perhaps.

Good news for both manufacturers.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30977 posts, RR: 86
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10128 times:
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While China and India's population could certainly absorb hundreds of A380s, I wonder how efficient an A380 would be when used in a "domestic short-haul" mission profile like Japan did with the 747SR and 744D.

User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 9939 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
While China and India's population could certainly absorb hundreds of A380s, I wonder how efficient an A380 would be when used in a "domestic short-haul" mission profile like Japan did with the 747SR and 744D.

It will not work. The A380 is a long long haul aircraft, not an intercity airplane. And notice that the Japanese are backing away from the 747 used in that role. The price of oil will drive that


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30977 posts, RR: 86
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 9604 times:
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That's what I thought. So then the idea is that China's and India's middle-class will expand quickly and that they will flock to visit Europe, Australia, and North America on vacation?

User currently offlineChuffy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9218 times:

A worrying thought for both A and B is that the market there can only be 'short term'. The available labour market and the price they will work for will have to mean that the Chinese will build their own planes. Once the demand for A or B dries up, they will buy up one or both businesses and move them lock stock home.
Our demand for minimum wages, sick pay, holiday pay, national insurance can only mean that the western product will become too expensive when compared with what the Chinese will work for.

This applies to all manufacturing, but aeroplanes are my interest.

There is more but I won't bore you all any more.

Cheers


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 8465 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
the idea is that China's and India's middle-class will expand quickly and that they will flock to visit Europe, Australia, and North America on vacation?

China had an estimated GDP per capita of around US$2000 in 2005. However, that figure is somewhat misleading since you would live far better on such an income in China than you would in Europe or the US. Couple that with a very uneven distribution and you already have quite a few "middle class" Chinese. Allow for continuing growth of close to 10% for the next few years and revaluation of the yuan and you have a large number of Chinese in the market for long haul travel.

Quoting Chuffy (Reply 10):
A worrying thought for both A and B is that the market there can only be 'short term'. The available labour market and the price they will work for will have to mean that the Chinese will build their own planes.

Wouldn't buying a stake in an existing manufacturer and slowly migrating work to China be a more attractive proposition? You never know, we might even see A320's being built in China!


User currently offlineChuffy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 8089 times:

Quoting Art (Reply 11):
Wouldn't buying a stake in an existing manufacturer and slowly migrating work to China be a more attractive proposition? You never know, we might even see A320's being built in China

...and then buying the Company.


User currently offlineCloudy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4271 times:

Quoting Art (Reply 11):
China had an estimated GDP per capita of around US$2000 in 2005. However, that figure is somewhat misleading since you would live far better on such an income in China than you would in Europe or the US

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

This is the CIA world factbook, which shows China's GDP as $6300 per capita. This is measured by Purchasing Power Parity. As the name suggests, that accounts for the difference in purchasing power.


User currently offlineJeb94 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 601 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3885 times:

China is working very hard to develop its own aircraft manufacturing system. In the very short term this will be good for Boeing and Airbus but in my opinion you'll find that many of these aircraft wind up being built in China and some may even be of Chinese design. China is a nation full of very resourceful people afterall.

User currently offlineVincewy From Taiwan, joined Oct 2005, 767 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3077 times:

A380 won't be for high density domestic networks, instead a comprehensive high speed rail network is in the work, A380/747 size aircrafts will be for long haul and regional flights between major cities, perhaps even connecting with HSR and other ground transports.

A few domestic city pairs may use A380, such as PEK-CAN, CTU-PEK which HSR will have no time saving advantage, but any city pairs that are within 2 hours of flights may eventually rely on HSR primarily, they call it "Dedicated Passenger Lines"

IMO many more lines are needed, ie: certain city pairs can build another line going through different sets of major cities, such as Shanghai-Beijing, Shanghai-Guangzhou but those in the map are the most urgent (wonder why it took so long for them to get started)


User currently offlineBoeing777/747 From Belgium, joined Dec 2001, 643 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2583 times:

China is planning to open 50 new airports the coming 5 years. This country is skyrocketing: maybe their economy once explode.

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