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Possible A380 Orders In 2006  
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 9627 times:

I decide to start this thread in order to discuss possible A380 order from new and existing customers in 2006.

I have the following list as possible candidates.

Lufthansa
Singapore Airlines
Ethiad
Qatar (So far they only have 2 on order)
Iberia
South African Airlines (via ILFC)
China Airlines
China Eastern
Asiana
Emirates (conversion of their A346 order?)



What are your thoughts in regards to the probability of an order from the airlines in the list above?

Who else can we add to that list?

Regards,
Wings


Aviation Is A Passion.
63 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 9621 times:

Some private customers in the Gulf to do reeeeeeeal big shopping trips....  cool 


Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9566 times:

Most airliners gather few if any orders during the 12 months prior EIS. For an airliner playing to a niche market that may already be saturated, any order this year would be a surprise, with the exception of a possible VIP order.

User currently offlineSangas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9552 times:

The current list of option holders may be a logical place to begin looking for potential 2006 order candidates:

AF 04
FX 10
KE 03
LH 10
QF 10
QR 02
SQ 15
5X 10
VS 06

Total = 70


User currently onlineScorpio From Belgium, joined Oct 2001, 5018 posts, RR: 44
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9552 times:

I'd add Air China to the list as well.

User currently offlineKrisYYZ From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9531 times:

I would doubt any major orders until Airbus puts out more operational performance data on the white whale and the successful and on-time integration of the GP7200 engines is complete.

User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9515 times:

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 5):
I would doubt any major orders until Airbus puts out more operational performance data on the white whale and the successful and on-time integration of the GP7200 engines is complete.

Indeed. A 2007 order (or even two) would be much more likely than a 2006 order.

As for the 70 options, how many of those were placed after Boing launched the SuperJumbo? Zero, right?


User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9475 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):

As for the 70 options, how many of those were placed after Boing launched the SuperJumbo? Zero, right?

How many B748i have been orders so far? Don't have to count much.
Quoting Sangas (Reply 3):
The current list of option holders may be a logical place to begin looking for potential 2006 order candidates:

AF 04
FX 10
KE 03
LH 10
QF 10
QR 02
SQ 15
5X 10
VS 06

Total = 70

Good point Sangas.

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 4):
I'd add Air China to the list as well.

Will do.

Regards,
Wings

[Edited 2006-05-13 11:39:41]


Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineSangas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9465 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):
As for the 70 options, how many of those were placed after Boing launched the SuperJumbo? Zero, right?



None. Sales have been dismal since the maiden flight last April. Nevertheless, I've seen media reports that it's possible LH, QF, and SQ may exercise options this year.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9417 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 7):
How many B748i have been orders so far? Don't have to count much.

The whole VLA market is dismal right now. It is either saturated (at the moment) or everyone is in wait-and-see mode. I suspect it is a combination of the two and that we won't see much movement this year. I think there will be some VLA sales in 2007, but nothing really exciting. Similarly, I expect B787 sales to slow starting about a year from now.


User currently offlineKrisYYZ From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9405 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 7):
How many B748i have been orders so far? Don't have to count much.

please lets not go down this road again. The A380 and B747-8 are in totally different stages of design/construction/production. I don`t for a second think that the B747-8 will be a massive success but it hasn`t even completely gotten off the drawing board.


User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9397 times:

Lufthansa
Singapore Airlines
Ethiad
Qatar (So far they only have 2 on order)
Iberia
South African Airlines (via ILFC)
China Airlines
China Eastern
Asiana
Emirates (conversion of their A346 order?)
Air China
Private Customer


Thanks to Sangas we also have the following list of customers that hold option for the A380.


Air France AF 04
Fed EX FX 10
Korean Airlines KE 03
Lufthansa LH 10
Qantas QF 10
Qatar QR 02
Singapore Airlines SQ 15
United Parcel Service 5X 10
Virgin Atlantic VS 06

Total = 70


Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9374 times:

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 10):
please lets not go down this road again. The A380 and B747-8 are in totally different stages of design/construction/production. I don`t for a second think that the B747-8 will be a massive success but it hasn't`t even completely gotten off the drawing board.

While their is some truth to your statement, we also have the B787 as another example. Look at the numbers that it managed to attract even before the final freeze. The B787 is considered a major risk project while the B748i is based upon a proven and reliable workhorse.

I do recognize that the B748F will indeed be a major success although at this present time I do not see the B748i doing the same.

Regards,
Wings

[Edited 2006-05-13 12:04:41]


Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9338 times:

I wont hold my breath,but... It has been very quiet lately on Airbus front as far as new orders are concerned for any of their aircraft. Airbus might have saved up a few surprises for the ILA next week. I wouldn't rule out LH converting some A380 options at their homeground.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Most airliners gather few if any orders during the 12 months prior EIS

That's a valid point, but no exact sience. Boeing sold 2 777s in the 12 months prior to EIS. However Airbus hinted that they would sign up atleast one new customer (which might or might not include a private customer) and add on orders from existing customers this year.



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User currently offlineSangas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9288 times:

IMO, Airbus will have to offer a lower CASM, higher performance derivative (A388R?) to reinvigorate A388 sales. The 130 odd pax versions of the baseline model on firm order for delivery through 2012 is already a lot for the worldwide fleet to absorb.

User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 9125 times:

Asiana will buy A380s and doesn't see any interest for the 747-8.
They will also buy 787s , without studying the A350.

These orders are conditionned to gain more cities in the USA (for the 787 order) , and to have the green light to open ICN-CDG , 3 times a week (777) (for the A380 order).

That's nobody else than the CEO of OZ himself who made these statements !!!!!!!


User currently offlineSjoerd From Belgium, joined Aug 2003, 361 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 9073 times:

BA has got to order at some point. Maybe 2006 is too early.

Sjoerd

[Edited 2006-05-13 13:58:49]


Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 9033 times:

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 16):
BA has got to order at some point.

BA might well decide that they don't need anything larger than the B787-10.


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1303 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 9029 times:

CI will go for some freighters. Possibly some pax versions too. And it would be really cool if KL would replace the 747 fleet by 773 and A388. Does make sense both capacity wise and from the standpoint of commonality within the AF/KL fleet. But maybe it is too early to expect announcements about that in 2006. twocents 


There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 9013 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 13):
That's a valid point, but no exact sience. Boeing sold 2 777s in the 12 months prior to EIS. However Airbus hinted that they would sign up atleast one new customer (which might or might not include a private customer) and add on orders from existing customers this year.

I read that somewhere, too. I guess they would be announced either at the ILA or at Farnborough.

The reasons for the lack of sales at the moment are obvious. The line is sold out until around 2010 and Airbus will not give significant discounts since they have a monopoly in that segment.

My guess for airlines buying the A380 would be:
Cathay Pacific
Jet Airways


User currently offlinePADSpot From Germany, joined Jan 2005, 1676 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 9002 times:

Quoting Sangas (Reply 3):
The current list of option holders may be a logical place to begin looking for potential 2006 order candidates:

I don't think that option holdern will excercise their options before they have seen the operational performance of the A380.

The next A380 order will come from China. Given their economic growth and the amount of people who will be able to travel in, lets say 2015, there is simply no alterantive to the A380 for them ... Same goes for India but maybe a littler later ...


User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8986 times:
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CA or some other Chinese carrier needs A380s for the Olympics (if for prestige if nothing else) but that may mean an actual lease initially from ILFC to get the planes on time for that date.
I think a CI order is far less certain and the 747-8 probably a better fit but if the economics of the A380 look good after EIS with other airlines, it would work well on flights to the US west coast.


User currently offlineMaartenV From Netherlands, joined Aug 2005, 271 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8975 times:

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 18):
And it would be really cool if KL would replace the 747 fleet by 773 and A388.

KLM has already stated a couple of times that the A388 will not be part of their fleet since their would only be 1 or 2 routes in their system that would support an aircraft that big (I think AMS-DTW and AMS-MSP). They only have 5 full pax 744s right now which will be replaced when time comes by 773ERs. If they really need anything bigger then that, they will probably go for the 748i, but I don't even think that that will happen.



Its all about supply and demand...
User currently offlineSangas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8914 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 13):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Most airliners gather few if any orders during the 12 months prior EIS

That's a valid point, but no exact sience. Boeing sold 2 777s in the 12 months prior to EIS.

It would be interesting to know for the sake of comparison if the A340 gained any new customers during that "limbo" period, whether all potential customers in that size class took a wait-and-see posture?


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8850 times:

Quoting MaartenV (Reply 22):
KLM has already stated a couple of times that the A388 will not be part of their fleet since their would only be 1 or 2 routes in their system that would support an aircraft that big (I think AMS-DTW and AMS-MSP). They only have 5 full pax 744s right now which will be replaced when time comes by 773ERs. If they really need anything bigger then that, they will probably go for the 748i, but I don't even think that that will happen.

I agree. The B747-8I is too big for KLM.


25 Post contains images Boeingfanyyz : May seem somewhat far-fetched, but I think AC could be a possible customer. If you think about it, AC created a gap by retiring their 744's, and that
26 Blast : I wouldn't be surprised to see SA order two or three to operate on the LHR route.
27 Sangas : The 744M has worked well for KL, since the regulators no longer favor combi aircraft, replacing it won't be easy.
28 Zvezda : Wrong. Wrong. AC have no need for anything larger than a B777-300ER. Even that may be on the large size for them, however, nothing smaller and presen
29 SA7700 : Could you please provide a link to these statements? SA may aquire 2x A380's in the future. However, IMHO it will be via ILFC (as WINGS indicated in
30 Abba : To me it seems as if that slowing down has lasted for quite a few months now.... Abba
31 Connies4ever : Zero chance. AC's mini 747 fleet was most recently 3x747 Combis which had about 300 pax + freight. More than easily replaced by 777-300ERs. As well,
32 Zvezda : 59 firm orders from 5 customers in the last two months is evidence of slowing down?
33 Post contains links Sangas : Asiana considers both Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 orders, rejects A350 http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+Boeing+787+orders%2c+rejects.html
34 Krisyyz : nornway, AC Horizons magazine had a special section on the A380 in whichrnthey made it very clear the AC has no need nor future plans for such arnair
35 SKY1 : Iberia will not buy the 380, no at least on a short term.
36 USADreamliner : I don't think IB is in conditions to buy the A380. And only the routes to EZE and MEX and maybe MIA would make this aircraft a viable option for Iber
37 A342 : No surprise, since they already bought 5.
38 RedFlyer : Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't personally buy that. It's been almost a full year since the last order was placed for an A380 (at the last
39 Astuteman : IIRC SQ also said last week they were now happy with what they were seeing. If that's the case, SQ could be a possible this year. Like you I don't ex
40 Zvezda : Airlines are also waiting to see to what extent passengers go out of their way to book themselves on flights operated by the large VLA, the widely-use
41 Post contains images Boeingfanyyz : Thanks for the clarification. Perhaps when/if fuel prices drop down, AC might bring the topic back up. By the way, I'd recommend using spell-check!!!
42 A342 : They are also waiting to see to what extent passengers will jump on A380 flights because at the moment, looking at passenger comfort, there is nothin
43 Mika10021 : My guess is Iberia for their South American routes.KLM may take a couple from Air France but the next big order will come from Asia( China or India)
44 Zvezda : Not true. Cabin floor area does not determine comfort -- not even seat comfort. Even if the air quality were the same, I'd prefer 2-4-2 seating on a
45 RootsAir : HAV would also be a possibility. Then again could HAV hold an A380 ? that's the question
46 KrisYYZ : sorry I'm in Europe using a Hungarian keyboard, don't know why that happened.
47 SA7700 : Theoretically, on which routes would KL use these A380's? Rgds SA7700
48 FCKC : As already mentionned in another thread , China will need 200 size A380 planes in the next 20 years.China will built 48 new airports in the country !!
49 MaartenV : KLM has already said a couple of times that the A380 would only be supported by a few routes, being AMS-DTW and if i recall correctly AMS-MSP (becaus
50 Post contains images MD90fan : Im surpised nobody brought up PR, they have expressed interest in these birds for use on routes to SFO and LAX. Also by the time the A380 comes into s
51 Post contains images PanAm_DC10 : Bit late but I'll chip in with my Option conversions or add on order posibilities Lufthansa Singapore Airlines Emirates* - A346 conversion, as noted b
52 Dalecary : I wonder when we will see the first A380 cancellations? 2006? Could be very well on the cards from what I have heard...................
53 Zvezda : Cancellation is rumored to be under consideration at AF and VS.
54 MaartenV : Who/Where/When/What/Why? Could be helpfull if you gave a source or at least a bit more info.
55 11Bravo : Apparently some rumblings out of UPS as well. The order for B744F last August coupled with the postponement of an in-house A380 simulator at UPS seem
56 SLCUT2777 : I really don't see any North American based carriers ordering the A380 in the foreseeable future. AA, UA, DL, CO, NW, US and even AC all seam to be mo
57 PlaneHunter : If, if, if any airline will grant us the luxury of 2-4-2 on the B787... Which carriers? Where do these rumors come from? PH
58 Sangas : I've read in some A.net posts that AWST published a brief story that AF was considering a possible A380 order cancellation in its April 3rd edition (
59 Dalecary : Yes, sorry, it was a bit of a tease. Would love to be more specific but I believe 3/4 carriers could potentially cancel for a variety of reasons(not
60 MaartenV : So we could say that either UPS or FedEx or both are one of them? Maybe EK will opt for the 748F instead of the A380F?
61 11Bravo : They already converted those two A380F to more orders for the pax model.
62 Post contains images MaartenV : Then I guess it'll be a bit hard for them to cancel their A380Fs Does anyone have any ideas or heard rumors about possible A380 order cancellations,
63 Don81603 : AC has no need for the A380, and IIRC, they're dumping their 340's one for one as the T7's arrive. The only viable route AC has that the 380 could se
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