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Qatar Airways May Review A350 Deal  
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Posted (8 years 5 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7204 times:

http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=755592006
It seems that not all are welcoming the latest announcement by Airbus that they will consider design changes. The A350's largest customer to date (or potential customer) is making noises that it will have to delay signing until the design is firmed up. Doesn't sound happy about the possible delay in EIS either....

Quote:
Analysts said that, if Airbus switched to an all-new design, customers would probably have to wait an extra two years, until 2012.
"However, this puts us in a dilemma, because we will get an aeroplane nearly ... two years later than originally envisaged," said Baker.
"And of course we will have to go to the market and buy aeroplanes that would fill in the gap, or else even look at an alternative because airlines cannot freeze their plans because a manufacturer cannot deliver in the time that we require.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 1, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days ago) and read 7058 times:

to me it seems they are just waiting for the final specs.......it's a prudent move they are making....

also, they would be ver embarrassed to cancel their 787 slots, go for the A350 and then say........."whoops, we made a mistake"...only to get 787 slots a few years after they orginally got slots...

my take.....they will go with the A350



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12630 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days ago) and read 7031 times:
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They have been saying for some time that they would sing a firm order once Airbus freezes the A350 design. With the current review ongoing, QR is absolutely right to wait.

Their obvious problem is that they want the planes sooner rather than later. Being an existing A330 and A340 customer, my guess is that Airbus will do a deal offering them some A330s or A340s in the short term till the A350s are delivered. Would make reasonable sense for both.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31110 posts, RR: 85
Reply 3, posted (8 years 5 months 5 days ago) and read 7021 times:
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If the A350MkV-1000 plays in the 777-300ER's and A340-600's sandbox, then QR is better off waiting to see if Airbus actually launches it.

User currently offlineDalecary From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 6786 times:

It begs the question why did QR originally commit to the A350.

They had 787 slots. That is a fact.

In the article Al-Baker states that Airbus didn't do their homework very well with the original A350 concept. Huh! But it was good enough for QR to ditch the 787 and sign an LoI with Airbus for up to 60 A350s. There's more than meets the eye here IMO.


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6753 times:

"Airbus tried to put up a product as a reaction to the 787 and I don't think they did their homework properly," he said.

Who did Mr. Al-Baker's homework when he made his purchase decision?


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 6, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6744 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 5):
Who did Mr. Al-Baker's homework when he made his purchase decision?

someone @ QR has a lot of explaining to do..... Smile



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 7, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6597 times:

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 4):
It begs the question why did QR originally commit to the A350.

A question without clear answers. It should be noted that HGW 787-9 variant was not or offered at the time, nor was the 787-9 EIS set in stone. Also, Boeing hadn't yet optimized internal cabin width last summer, so 9 abreast was not as attractive. A 250 pax aircraft seating 8 abreast in economy and offerring 8600nm+ range looked comparable to a similar sized 787-9 seating 8 abreast in economy with 8000-8300nm range. The A350 launch pushed Boeing to finish definition of the stretch model and commit to its earlier release.


Quoting Scbriml (Reply 2):
They have been saying for some time that they would sing a firm order once Airbus freezes the A350 design. With the current review ongoing, QR is absolutely right to wait.

I think one can be more blunt and say it would be stupid to do otherwise.

Quote:
Their obvious problem is that they want the planes sooner rather than later. Being an existing A330 and A340 customer, my guess is that Airbus will do a deal offering them some A330s or A340s in the short term till the A350s are delivered. Would make reasonable sense for both.

They don't operate A340s yet. The only reason for them to take A340s is if they do decide to go for A340NGs over the 777LR.

Anyway, I expect at this point QR/al Baker will want to save face and won't order the 787. Whether they order the A340NG or the 777LR will depend on what type of fuel cost guarantees Airbus will offer to hedgeless QR.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6374 times:

Quote:
"We have not signed a purchase agreement because" we cannot "purchase an airplane which is undefined," Baker said in an interview.

"The definition will change, the performance will change, the fuel burn will change. So many things will change that the airplane that we signed for in last September is not there anymore," he said. "So we have to, of course, review all our options."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/21/business/qatar.php


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 6313 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 7):
They don't operate A340s yet. The only reason for them to take A340s is if they do decide to go for A340NGs over the 777LR.

Anyway, I expect at this point QR/al Baker will want to save face and won't order the 787. Whether they order the A340NG or the 777LR will depend on what type of fuel cost guarantees Airbus will offer to hedgeless QR.

They will get their first A346s very soon. They have four on order.

The only reason ever to think about T7s was probably the 777F. But when Airbus comes out with the A332F, then QR will probably stay with Airbus.

Fuel cost guarantees? Ask PIA about the 772LR.

Back to the subject: Obviously they need to review their order when Airbus changes the plane and the delivery dates. What's the big deal? Their order wasn't very firm, IIRC. And Airbus hasn't decided yet what they'll do. Questions like what to do with current A350 customers will influence their decision.


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6178 times:

Flight International, 23 May 2006 by Max Kingsley-Jones/Doha

Launch customer frustrated by uncertainty over twinjet's configuration and Airbus's expected rethink of design

"...We are launch customer for an aircraft that, other than its model number, does not now exist. Qatar Airlways is very unhappy about this," says Al-Baker. He questions how Airbus will "address this issue with A350 customers who have placed deposits."


Dialing for dollars?


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6938 posts, RR: 63
Reply 11, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6159 times:

If QR are clever, they'll turn this to their advantage. With 60 or so orders waiting to be signed off, they are in a very strong position to influence some of the changes Airbus make to the A350. The price is a longer wait but they may end up with an aeroplane optimised ideally to their needs.

User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6123 times:

I expect all A350 customer may to review it's A350 orders / contracts. Specifications, delivery date, many things will change.

How is it possible not to review in this situation, or with every design alteration in that respect?


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 13, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6025 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 9):
Fuel cost guarantees? Ask PIA about the 772LR.

Cling to that hope Thorben.  Wink

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
I expect all A350 customer may to review it's A350 orders / contracts. Specifications, delivery date, many things will change.

How is it possible not to review in this situation, or with every design alteration in that respect?

They'll try and put Airbus through the ringer, but some of them aren't credible potential Boeing customers and others will be embarrassed about ordering an aircraft model that other airlines and lessors have rejected so stridently. The lessors aren't going anywhere either. I expect Airbus to retain the vast majority of the existing firm orders. My prediction for the airline most likely to consider Boeing: US under Parker.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 14, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5766 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 13):
They'll try and put Airbus through the ringer, but some of them aren't credible potential Boeing customers and others will be embarrassed about ordering an aircraft model that other airlines and lessors have rejected so stridently. The lessors aren't going anywhere either. I expect Airbus to retain the vast majority of the existing firm orders. My prediction for the airline most likely to consider Boeing: US under Parker.

WRT U.S. Air, I suspect that the loans made to US while in Chapter 11 may require them to stay with the A350. But that's only speculation. I agree with the rest of your post; I don't see the original customers for the A350 going to Boeing. It would be too great a loss of face and would call into question the judgement of the people who made the decisions. However, we'll probably hear a lot of noise....



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 15, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5676 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 14):
WRT U.S. Air, I suspect that the loans made to US while in Chapter 11 may require them to stay with the A350. But that's only speculation. I agree with the rest of your post; I don't see the original customers for the A350 going to Boeing. It would be too great a loss of face and would call into question the judgement of the people who made the decisions. However, we'll probably hear a lot of noise....

The US order was predicated on Airbus meeting specifications, including I believe delivery dates. The delay could throw a wrench into that order. And if Airbus ends up offering a bigger plane than the originally proposed A350, I can see US walking away. Unlike with the other airlines who chose the A350, it was clear that Chapter 11 exit financing and Airbus's flexibility with regards to delivery schedules and deposits for existing orders had a lot to do with the A350 order.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5585 times:

for most airlines Airbus will probably compensate

e.g. the cost of flying 330/340s longer

So compensate for the lost cost reductions (fuel, maintenance etc.)

That is an Airbus advantage many here continue to underestimate

a workable fleet plan for airlines starting today, not in 2012


User currently offlineBrendows From Norway, joined Apr 2006, 1020 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5523 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):

So compensate for the lost cost reductions (fuel, maintenance etc.)



Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):

That is an Airbus advantage many here continue to underestimate

This has probably helped Airbus in winning certain orders, but for Airbus' shareholders, I wouldn't call this an advantage for Airbus, with the fuelprice we have today it's just like shooting yourself in the foot.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 18, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5523 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):

So compensate for the lost cost reductions (fuel, maintenance etc.)

That is an Airbus advantage many here continue to underestimate

a workable fleet plan for airlines starting today, not in 2012

This costs Airbus money. Plus if they are crying for launch aid and can afford to pay money to customers to not defect, it isn't going to look good. It would seem like Airbus is using the additional cash flow to buy/maintain marketshare rather than simply subsidize aircraft development.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5504 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
for most airlines Airbus will probably compensate

e.g. the cost of flying 330/340s longer

So compensate for the lost cost reductions (fuel, maintenance etc.)

That is an Airbus advantage many here continue to underestimate

a workable fleet plan for airlines starting today, not in 2012

Perhaps, but it starts to get expensive, particularly when you have to deal with disposals at the end of the transition period.


User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 20, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5489 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
I expect all A350 customer may to review it's A350 orders / contracts. Specifications, delivery date, many things will change.

How is it possible not to review in this situation, or with every design alteration in that respect?

Correct - the airlines are unsure as to what aircraft will be built at this point, so we are starting over with the A350 program - each and every order must be reviewed and airlines that have signed contracts for the A350 will also go through the reneogitation process.

This is a unique situation, one that is cetainly interesting to watch.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
for most airlines Airbus will probably compensate

e.g. the cost of flying 330/340s longer

So compensate for the lost cost reductions (fuel, maintenance etc.)

That is an Airbus advantage many here continue to underestimate

a workable fleet plan for airlines starting today, not in 2012

You must be joking - the delay of the A350 program, the required renegotation of all A350 orders, and the possible need to compensate airlines for the delays/revisions is one big mess - and may cost Airbus money as well as lost good will....aside from the fact that Airbus has been forced to admit that their prior A350 offering was not as good as it should have been.


User currently offlineDalecary From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5448 times:

Part of the article in this week's FI:

Airbus could lose its target and most prominent A350 customer, Qatar
Airways, because of its indecision over the aircraft's configuration
and the likelihood it will adopt an all-new design.
"we are launch customer for an aircraft that, other than its model
number, does not now exist. Qatar Airways is very unhappy about
this,"says Al Baker. He questions how Airbus will "address this issue
with A350 customers who have placed deposits".
Al Baker says that in light of the development, Qatar"might be forced
to re-evaluate the 787 and could get preferential delivery dates from
Boeing". Qatar Airways repeated requests since selecting the A350 in
June last year that Airbus should revise the design have been
"vindicated"by the manufacturer's U-turn, says Al Baker. "The trouble
is , Airbus has lost a year". He says he expects Airbus to be able to
show him a firm specification "by early June".

Doesn't sound that flash for the A350 at QR but I wouldn't be surprised if Al Baker is using this as a tactic to gain further concessions.
Does Manni still think this Order is assured? He has repeatedly told the community here that it will be a definitive order. It may well end up that way, but an element of doubt certainly now exists.


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12630 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5425 times:
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Quoting Leelaw (Reply 19):
Perhaps, but it starts to get expensive, particularly when you have to deal with disposals at the end of the transition period.

Personally, I don't see Airbus having significant problems placing A330s on the second-hand market. You just can't get them today. There will always be 2nd tier airlines that would love some 5 year-old A330s.

A340s might be a bit more of a challenge, but again, there not exactly being piled up in the deserts are they?

As an interesting aside, both AY and TP are taking A330s or A340s ahead of their A350s. I haven't seen any indication that Airbus will be taking these planes back when the A350s are delivered.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineDalecary From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 5322 times:

Bloomberg is now reporting that QR may reconsider the A350 order if the project is delayed by more than 18 months. Any new A350 would appear almost certain to be delayed by more than 18 months. But the key words probably are "may reconsider".

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31110 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (8 years 5 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5067 times:
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Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Airbus will probably compensate...(most airlines to offer them)...a workable fleet plan for airlines starting today, not in 2012.

But Boeing can offer some/many of them an even more workable fleet plan "today" using the 787. Even for large orders like QR, SQ, and others, Boeing will still be able to offer frames up to two years earlier then Airbus will.

And Airbus may slip past 2012 since the A350MkV will not be able to leverage as much existing tooling, supplier sourcing, design work, and technology the A330/A340-based MkI-MkIV were able to.


25 Lumberton : Posturing by Mr. AAB. Where else is he going to go? He is going to look real foolish if he "flip flops". Boeing doesn't have 787 slots to give him; Q
26 Jacobin777 : right Thorben, we already know about that article..which basically at this point in time as no merit..... We also know how the 777's are killing the
27 Timboflier215 : Indeed, please lets not get into all of THAT again. Overall, I would expect QR to be unhappy. They asked Airbus to redesign the plane. Airbus did not
28 Behramjee : just saw bbc world business report and one of the stories was on this QR A 350 deal. it said that QR is not happy with the 2 year delay of the program
29 Post contains images DAYflyer : Here is another qoute: "We are committed to the A-350 deal, the only thing is there is a delay in delivery and we are waiting for them to tell us the
30 FlyingHippo : A thought came up... What is the EIS of 787-9 compared to the newest version of A350? I know the EIS of A350 has not been decided yet, but I think 20
31 Ken777 : This one is going to be interesting to watch. QR can save face if they go with the 787 by saying that the larger versions were not available when they
32 Stitch : Perhaps QR wants to wait because an A350MkV-1000 could fill the mission role they are currently considering A340-600s and 777-300ERs and be more effic
33 Post contains images Jacobin777 : then you can say the same thing about ILFC, who have made a super-duper-ultra-large-massive stink about the A350... as they have already ordered the
34 PM : No. The two situations are quite different. What DAYflier quoted in Reply #30 implies that QR will buy the forthcoming version of the A350 no matter
35 Dutchjet : Interesting point. If ILFC had already placed the A350s it ordered with airlines with solid finances.......no.......in that case, ILFC is acting more
36 11Bravo : As far as we know, given very little information other than the FI article, the A350-1000 will EIS in 2014. So the question becomes; do they want to
37 Post contains images Jacobin777 : true, true....however, at least QR haven't signed the dotted lines where as ILFC have (I'm sure they have some clauses where they can probably back o
38 PlaneHunter : Do you always believe a story which is reported by a newspaper? I'd rather wait for a reliable confirmation of these claims. QR has been turned into
39 11Bravo : Come on now. You have to admit QR's behavior for the last year or so has been unusual. It may all be part of a well laid plan which will turn out in
40 Scouseflyer : "So now QR have no idea what they have ordered," They haven't ordered anything yet..........
41 PlaneHunter : Being predictable is not a fortunate feature when negotiating for the best deal... PH
42 Post contains images Thorben : Wasn't it you who told me to read the papers?
43 Brendows : Reading and believing isn't the same thing Thorben. Being critical is important. It's not too hard to point at the mistakes in the article you are re
44 PlaneHunter : Yes, but only reputable newspapers known for reliable research, or aviation-related press. PH
45 777ER : Any other orders QR can review (apart from the current re-view of the B777 order? I knew this Airbus stuff up would result in A350 customers re-viewin
46 Post contains images RobK : Well I hope QTR - and everyone else planning to go with the A350 - now go with Boeing. It'll serve Airbus right for messing them about and trying to c
47 Thorben : I very much agree with that. Since I know a lot about aviation, I often notice clear mistakes the media makes. Then I wonder if they are as wrong as
48 Post contains images Kappel : You mean like the 748 Seriously though... although it was not an optimal response, but the current a350 is far from "just a few added go-faster strip
49 DAYflyer : Agree with this. They will review and then switch back to the 787 after Airbus once again misses the mark by not going to a composite fuselage.
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