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NW To Restore Capacity  
User currently offlinePremobrimo From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 425 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6929 times:

Here is the link:
http://www.startribune.com/535/story/458558.html

Also I see that they mention that the A330 will replace the DC-10 on the MSP-HNL route.


Now You're Flying Smart.
46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCIDflyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2273 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6840 times:

good to see NW will start restoring capacity. Hopefully they will begin to resume connecting more cities to all 3 hubs as they were trying to do before bankruptcy.

User currently offlineBkkair From Thailand, joined Aug 2001, 409 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6814 times:

Interesting point from the article: The new Airbuses will allow Northwest to save up to 30 percent on fuel.

On the MSP-AMS route, the A330-300 can carry 25 more passengers than the DC-10 while consuming 6,100 fewer gallons of fuel each way. At $1.87 a gallon -- Northwest's first-quarter average fuel price -- that would have been a savings of $11,407 per flight.


User currently offlineRottamo From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 6699 times:

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 1):
On the MSP-AMS route, the A330-300 can carry 25 more passengers than the DC-10 while consuming 6,100 fewer gallons of fuel each way. At $1.87 a gallon -- Northwest's first-quarter average fuel price -- that would have been a savings of $11,407 per flight.

And if plane does two trips per day it will do 730 trips per year.
Yearly savings: $11,407*730=$8,327,110

That's quite a lot money. They have 14 DC-10 right now (I guess) so total fuel cost savings are 14*$8,327,110=$116,579,540.

Rottamo

[Edited 2006-05-27 16:13:59]

User currently offlineSean-SAN- From United States of America, joined Aug 2002, 768 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 6641 times:

Minus the lease payments on the A330, versus the DC10 ($0) = no additional savings!!

User currently offlineChrisA330 From Canada, joined Oct 1999, 630 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 6592 times:

Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 4):
Minus the lease payments on the A330, versus the DC10 ($0) = no additional savings!!

Plus the maintenance savings, plus the elimination of the 3rd flight crew, plus the additional revenue potential from the higher capacity.


User currently offlineJrlander From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 6581 times:

Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 4):
Minus the lease payments on the A330, versus the DC10 ($0) = no additional savings!!

Of course the equation isn't nearly as simple as either this or the Star Tribune shows. True, the airline does own its DC-10's- but those older planes also require a lot of maintenance. I would guess that they area also nearing a major maintenance check. Also- NW makes a great deal of money on its World Business Class product. The DC-10's do not have the new seats, while the A-330's will. In Business Class, that might make a difference in their revenue.


User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4028 posts, RR: 11
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 6517 times:

Quoting ChrisA330 (Reply 5):
Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 4):
Minus the lease payments on the A330, versus the DC10 ($0) = no additional savings!!
Plus the maintenance savings, plus the elimination of the 3rd flight crew, plus the additional revenue potential from the higher capacity.

VERY well said. There gets to be a point where older airframes bring in diminishing returns despite the lower overhead. For example after a personal vehicle reaches 8-9 years that is also what typically happens. I know that I will have to replace my 2001 Ford Taurus by 2009 or 2010 at the latest or face paying more for repair and fuel inefficiencies. Aircraft for a major air carrier are the same way, and NW has allowed their fleet to become to old, much the way TWA was confronted with back in the 1990s. The NW DC-9s and DC-10s are "hanger queens" and too much is being spent on MX. The A330 is a good replacement choice for the DC-10s and NW followed ACs lead in getting AirBus into the North American wide-body market with a sweet deal.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineRottamo From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6385 times:

Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 4):
Minus the lease payments on the A330, versus the DC10 ($0) = no additional savings!!

If you own something it does not mean that it is free. Value of DC-10 will decrease every year and there is an opportunity cost of capital.

I don't know what is market value of DC-10, but let’s try to do some calculations.
I assume following:
A330-300 costs 150 million.
Residual value after 25 years is 15 million.
Interest rate is 6%.

So if you borrow 150 million from bank and residual value is 10% after 25 years and you pay yearly payment to bank then it should be about 11,5 million per year.

->Lease payment should be about 11,5 million per year.

11,5 >> 8,3

So right now fuel cost savings are quite a lot smaller than lease costs. Break even is about $2,6 per gallon. And calculations are very sensitive to changes in interest rate.

Rottamo

P.S. Probably my calculation does not make sense but at least nice try  Smile


User currently offlineB742 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2005, 3767 posts, RR: 19
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6319 times:

Good news  Smile

It says in the article...
"Northwest also will bring back three Boeing 747-400s for overseas flights. The planes, which seat 403 people, are the largest in Northwest's fleet."

Any idea which a/c will be brought back, and on which routes will they fly?

How is NWA's current financial situation?

Oh, and what a/c are to replace the DC-9's  Big grin  Silly

Rob!  wave 


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24865 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6289 times:

According to DOT filings here are NWA's DC10 vs A330 hourly operating cost.

DC-10
Crew- $1,300
Fuel- $4,209
Ownership- $598
Insurance- $2
Taxes- $34
Maintenance- $929
Misc- $85
TOTAL- $7,157

A330 (does not specify 200vs300)
Crew- $1,416
Fuel- $2,962
Ownership- $1836
Insurance- $9
Taxes- $0
Maintenance- $91
Misc- $1
TOTAL- $6,233

The significant variance between the two typs are their ownership cost, and maintenance (DC-10 being 10times that of the A330!)



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6207 times:

And I believe MSPHNL is over 8 hrs so it will need a relief crew member anyway.

User currently offlineRottamo From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6141 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 10):
P.S. Probably my calculation does not make sense but at least nice try Smile

I have quite bad hangover so my head doesn't work. I guess that I should use real rate of return which mean I assume that price of fuel will increase same pace as inflation. So if I assume that real rate of return is 4% then yearly lease payment should be 9.24 millions and is I do same calculations with 3% then lease payment is 8.20 millions. This is not "real" lease payment, but lease payments adjusted to inflation. Basically I have calculated NPV of buying aircraft and selling it 25 years later vs. paying fixed yearly payment every year next 25 years.

Of course if we feel that fuel price is now unusually high and it will be lower in the future these calculations don't mean anything.


Rottis


User currently offlineKcrwFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3795 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6104 times:

Are they only restoring capacity on International routes? or Midwest routes?( a joke) Or will it be to cities they've been cutting back in over the years?

User currently offlineWjcandee From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5117 posts, RR: 22
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5819 times:

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 7):
The NW DC-9s and DC-10s are "hanger queens" and too much is being spent on MX.

It just amazes me how people just open mouths and say stuff without any supporting facts. AFAIK, the -9s certainly require more maint than brand-new aircraft because parts time out and heavy checks are necessary. However, to call them "hangar queens", which has a very specific meaning relating to dispatch reliability, is just crap.


User currently offlineTwoLz2Rn From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 447 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5645 times:

i also wonder what the 4 747-400's will be used for...maybe permanent switch on the LAX-NRT route? Maybe NW 747's will return to AMS (unlikely but one can only hope!)...

User currently offlineUSAF757300 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 5164 times:

Quoting TwoLz2Rn (Reply 15):
Maybe NW 747's will return to AMS (unlikely but one can only hope!)...

that is exactly what I was hoping for. It is probably wishful thinking however.


User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7531 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4968 times:

Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 4):
Minus the lease payments on the A330, versus the DC10 ($0) = no additional savings!!

Northwest A330's are not leased.

Quoting Rottamo (Reply 8):

A330-300 costs 150 million.

It was reported that NW's A330's were $80 million

Quoting B742 (Reply 9):

Any idea which a/c will be brought back, and on which routes will they fly?

The last 3 of the 744's in NW's fleet, I don't have ship numbers though.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 7):
The NW DC-9s and DC-10s are "hanger queens" and too much is being spent on MX.

Do your research, the DC-9's dispatch reliability rate is higher then the Airbus A319/A320's

[

Quoting USAF757300 (Reply 16):
that is exactly what I was hoping for. It is probably wishful thinking however.

Don't count on it.


The information about this as well as the pilot recalls I posted about a week ago in a few different topics.



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineIowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4368 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 4679 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 13):
Or will it be to cities they've been cutting back in over the years?

They will most likely not be adding much if any service back to CRW, as I assume that is what you're getting at.  Wink Wink

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 17):
Do your research, the DC-9's dispatch reliability rate is higher then the Airbus A319/A320's

That's surprising, why is that?



Next flights: WN DSM-LAS-PHX, US PHX-SJD. Return: US SJD-PHX, WN PHX-MDW-DSM
User currently offlineTbnist03 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 106 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4601 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
And I believe MSPHNL is over 8 hrs so it will need a relief crew member anyway.

Each way, MSP-HNL is roughly 8 hours.

Quoting Premobrimo (Thread starter):
the A330 will replace the DC-10 on the MSP-HNL route.

As sad as I am to see the DC-10 go, it makes me want to take a trip on the A330, to add another a/c to my flight list.



-Mike
User currently offlineAlexPorter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4461 times:

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 7):
The NW DC-9s and DC-10s are "hanger queens" and too much is being spent on MX.

Even if "hanger [sic] queens" is an exaggeration, almost every time I drive past NW's MSP hangar on I-494, the aircraft visible are DC-10s and DC-9s. Last time I went past there early this week, a DC-10 was outside and a DC-9 was in the hangar (with the hangar door open). Usually this is what I see when going past. Sometimes I see an A320 or A319 as well. Even though I see them all the time when I'm flying to/from MSP, I rarely see 757s at the hangar. I don't see 747s or A330s (although the A330 is a given considering that they are DTW based) there much either - but do the 757s, 747s, and A330s use a different hangar?


User currently offlineDTWAGENT From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4194 times:

In DTW you will find the A330 in the hanger closest to I-94 highway. I seem them either in the hanger or sitting out side it. As for the 747's they are at a hanger in the middle of the airport property along with the B757's. At least that is where they are sitting when ever I fly out of DTW.

User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4154 times:

Quoting Tbnist03 (Reply 19):
Each way, MSP-HNL is roughly 8 hours.

Sorry but "roughly" doesn't work for the FAA. The flight is currently blocked at 8.21 on a D10. Unless a 330 can do it under 8 hrs (doubtful), NW will be taking a relief pilot along. And no, he/she isn't needed for the return but it's kinda hard to tell a pilot that since he isn't needed for the return, you won't pay him to come back.


User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4191 posts, RR: 37
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3950 times:

Quoting AlexPorter (Reply 20):
Even if "hanger [sic] queens" is an exaggeration, almost every time I drive past NW's MSP hangar on I-494, the aircraft visible are DC-10s and DC-9s.

That's because that's where the mx hangars for the DC-10's and DC-9's are located... routine checks are accomplished there.


The crew would cost more on the A330's as instead of a CA, FO, and SO.. you have 2 CA's and an FO. Virtually all the leg lengths require 3 pilots... even if the eastbound leg only requires 2, they are going to carry 3 b/c if 3 go over, 3 are coming back.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineKcrwFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3795 posts, RR: 7
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3862 times:

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 18):
They will most likely not be adding much if any service back to CRW, as I assume that is what you're getting at.

No I wasnt wondering about that. I dont want any more NW, thanks.

I meant exactly what I was asking. Are there any specific areas of their route structure theyll be targeting?


25 ATLAaron : I have a couple of questions: Are the 747's they are bringing back currently parked in the desert? How long till NW retires the last of their DC's? An
26 KingAir200 : Ooh, the forbidden question. Apparently, the 10s are leaving reasonably soon, but they still have to "decide" on something to replace the 9s. Maybe t
27 Burnsie28 : Thats because the DC-10's operate almost solely out of MSP, and they usually keep a plane down there after arrival from AMS for the flight to HNL the
28 757ops : Why do NW not start a MEM-LGW service? I never undersood why they didnt as so many UK tourist travel to Memphis and teh surrounding area and with htei
29 IDAWA : How can a DC-10 be cheaper than an A330 in terms of crew, while the first has a three-men cockpit and the second a two-men one? Probably there's some
30 B757capt : Not only that but just wait until the A330's get older those Airbus MX costs will kill them.
31 PSU.DTW.SCE : Time to clear up some misunderstandings: DC-10 vs. A330 operating costs: No one but the number crunchers up in Eagan know the exact economics of each
32 ATLAaron : My thought is just negotiated pay scales, but I am really not sure. I would think a pilot trained to fly a 330 would be worth more than a pilot train
33 Doug_Or : Captain's pay rates are about $1 higher on the 330 than the -10. F/O rates almost identical. Further, the F/E payrates for the -10 are only about 15%
34 ArtieFufkin : Northwest in the long run needs to merge with another major. They are really slowly losing their ability to support a large Asia operation. Tokyo is l
35 KingAir200 : Don't you think they would just get "TWA'd" by somebody? That might be good for Dougie & Co, but who else?[Edited 2006-05-28 19:08:21]
36 Burnsie28 : No they dont. They can fly those routes themselves within a couple of years. Yes, and No, NRT also allows for connections to cities that couldnt supp
37 Mikey711MN : So I wonder if we'll be asking a similar question when that happens... That is, if these scenarios hold true, NW appears to be in some position to se
38 Cslusarc : With which carrier do you think NW should merge with... 1. DL 2. CO 3. US 4. AA 5. UA 6. FedEx 7. UPS
39 Post contains images Rottamo : OK. Thanks. I just took price of 767 from Boeings web site and assumed that price of A330 is approximately same. Then lease payments would be: 3%: 4.
40 MastaHanky : FWIW, it looks like DTW-SLC is back in August. This was dropped in December of last year (along with SNA...which doesn't appear to be back).
41 WorldTraveler : Because the US-UK is highly restrictive and I don't believe MEM London service is permitted. It might be allowed once the EU and US sign and Open Ski
42 Iowaman : I believe they flew to ONT, not SNA.
43 Burnsie28 : It wasn't SNA, it was ONT as Iowaman stated, SLC-DTW was originally planned seasonal.
44 PSU.DTW.SCE : DTW-SLC went daily, and even double-daily when Delta joined Skyteam. Then DL started the route double daily with E-170's and NW dropped their service.
45 Supa7E7 : Agreed, NW's strategic position is unknown. The NRT + AMS overseas superhubs were ideal for a bygone era.
46 Bobnwa : Would you care to expand on that? Do you have info that NWA and AF/KL are not privy to?
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