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747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales  
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4376 posts, RR: 28
Posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 13907 times:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/6420AP_WA_Boeing_New_747.html

Peace said soaring fuel costs have forced many airlines to take a decidedly cautious approach to updating their long-haul fleets with new double-decker four-engine planes. He also said many airlines are happy enough with their four-engine 747-400 fleets and are not in a hurry to replace them.

Airlines have more choices to make today than when the 747 was their only option for flying a lot of people on really long routes, Peace said.


Sounds plausible, but if they really believed that then I don't think they would've launched the -8.

Also, anyone know who the UFO's are for the 747-8 on Boeing's orders and deliveries site?


My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
139 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 13888 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
if they really believed that then I don't think they would've launched the -8.

Boeing have already sold nearly enough freighters to pay for the SuperJumbo program. The SuperJumbo program will certainly be profitable before long -- even if the B747-8I never sells a single copy -- which is exceedingly unlikely.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21583 posts, RR: 59
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 13875 times:

Well, they won't even begin building the 748i for certification nor spending large sums on specific interior features until someone orders it. And most of the structural design the work on the 748i is also used by the 748F program, so that might explain why Boeing "isn't worried."

The 748F will sell for years to come, no matter what.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineGrantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 430 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 13780 times:

Won't the real market for the B748 and the A380 only really mature in 2009-2015 when most of the current B744s reach 20-25 years? I bet when Airbus started the A380 program way back in 1994, they never imagined that the real market was 15-20 years away and that the A380 would take a dozen years to realize. That's an awfully long time to wait - and a lot can change in that time period.

User currently onlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8481 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 13733 times:

I tend to agree that airlines are not in a rush to order the 748i. Unlike the 787 there is no need to worry about available slots at this time so the airlines can take all of the time they want.

I have a feeling that a lot of airlines are also taking the BA approach - establishing important benchmarks that need to be met before making any decision on major purchases.

Consider that Boeing will probably get a very good chunk of orders from most of the current 744 operators and it's easy to see why they are not too worried about the 748i's long term potential.


User currently offlineCure From Italy, joined Sep 2005, 227 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 13614 times:

Do not worry: Boeing is never worried Big grin...
They are anytime very sure of themselves, aren't they.
Very boring...but great planes MADE (in the past...)

Regards,

V (just bitchin' around)


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 13501 times:

Perhaps if Boeing had gone all the way and built it hyper-efficient with composite fuselage and such it would have perhaps sold better.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 13488 times:

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 6):
Perhaps if Boeing had gone all the way and built it hyper-efficient with composite fuselage and such it would have perhaps sold better.

The development cost would have been about 10 times higher, so it would have needed to sell about 10 times better. Boeing made the right choice.


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 13250 times:

Quote:
"Now they're looking at replacing and augmenting their 747-400 fleets with 787s, with 777s, with 747 Intercontinentals and with A380s — sizes all the way from 250 seats to 550 seats," Peace said. "That's complex analysis to try to figure out 10-15 years down the road what routes you're going to fly, what your customers are going to want, what the configuration of the airplane should be in terms of comfort."

It's important to remember that aircraft compete with each other on two levels, capacity and range. Because of it's range the 787 competes with the A380 on that level.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 13190 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 8):

It's important to remember that aircraft compete with each other on two levels, capacity and range. Because of it's range the 787 competes with the A380 on that level.

Uh, no. CASM and payload/range performance are far more important factors than capacity. Also, except in rare exceptions caused by artificial gummint interference, smaller capacity is better given the same CASM and satisfactory payload/range performance.


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 13045 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
CASM and payload/range performance are far more important factors than capacity...smaller capacity is better given the same CASM and satisfactory payload/range performance.

It seems that you took the point I was trying to make and restated it using jargon. Many people on this forum say Boeing has nothing to compete with the A380. My point was that the 787 can be an A380 competitor.

"Now they're looking at replacing and augmenting their 747-400 fleets with 787s, with 777s, with 747 Intercontinentals and with A380s — sizes all the way from 250 seats to 550 seats," Peace said.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 13008 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 10):
It seems that you took the point I was trying to make and restated it using jargon.

Sorry, then I misunderstood you.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 10):
Many people on this forum say Boeing has nothing to compete with the A380. My point was that the 787 can be an A380 competitor.

Both the B787 (especially the B787-10) and the B747-8I SuperJumbo compete with the WhaleJet in most applications. I'm confident that the "new all-new" A350 will also compete with the WhaleJet in most applications.


User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1624 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 12890 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
I'm confident that the "new all-new" A350 will also compete with the WhaleJet in most applications.

Now that would be a dramatic consequence of the new A-350. It has been reported that the 787-10 could cannibalize the 772 market. But how interesting that the new A-350 could eat into the A-380 market!


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 12864 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
Both the B787 (especially the B787-10) and the B747-8I SuperJumbo compete with the WhaleJet in most applications. I'm confident that the "new all-new" A350 will also compete with the WhaleJet in most applications.

What about the 777--too old?


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 14, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 12804 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 13):

What about the 777--too old?

Age has nothing to do with it, per se. Every B777 has higher CASM than the WhaleJet. If an airline has a route for which the demand curve is broad enough and the WhaleJet offers sufficient range, then the B777 would only make sense if the higher yield that would result from higher frequency would exceed the higher operating cost. The CASM of the WhaleJet is sufficiently better than that of the B777 that it's not clear that the yield difference would ever be high enough. The main reasons why the B777 outsells the WhaleJet are:
a) capacity (smaller is better in nearly all cases)
b) lower risk (easier to keep the load factor up)
c) higher frequency (higher yield) and
d) better range,
despite the WhaleJet's lower CASM.


User currently offlineUnited_Fan From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 7542 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 12760 times:

I think,for most airlines,a 777-300ER can do almost anything a 748 can do.


'Empathy was yesterday...Today, you're wasting my Mother-F'ing time' - Heat.
User currently offlineA380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1118 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 12675 times:

I'm not worried either!

User currently offlineGlideslope From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1628 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 12609 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
The development cost would have been about 10 times higher, so it would have needed to sell about 10 times better. Boeing made the right choice.

A recurring theme these days.  Smile



To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 11271 times:

From the article:
"The Chicago-based plane manufacturer launched its 747-8 last November to put competitive pressure on rival Airbus SAS and its A380 superjumbo."

I don't agree. I think the 747-8 was launched because Boeing saw a big enough market for a low development cost 747ADV to make a good profit. The fact that the 747-I should gain some sales at the expense of the A380 is a bonus.

From the article:
"The company has projected it will win about 450 orders for 747-8 jets over the next 20 years - about 300 passenger planes and 150 freighters, or what it deems will be half the market for jumbo jets."

Am I mistaken or has Boeing's estimate for sales of VLA increased 20% since they decided to build the 747-8?


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 19, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11123 times:

Quoting United_Fan (Reply 15):
I think,for most airlines,a 777-300ER can do almost anything a 748 can do.

The B747-8I SuperJumbo can fly every mission the B777-300ER can fly, but the SuperJumbo can carry more passengers and more freight farther while burning far less fuel per unit payload. In other words, the B747-8I is far more economical than the B777-300ER -- in rare cases where the demand curve is very broad.


User currently offlineMBJ2000 From Germany, joined Dec 2005, 426 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11036 times:

Zvezda, I don't want to start another discussion on the term "Whalejet", but then please don't use "Superjumbo" either. This is too confusing, you accept it or not, to most of people - even here on a.net - the Superjumbo is the A380...

Thanks!

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 22):
Quoting United_Fan (Reply 15):
I think,for most airlines,a 777-300ER can do almost anything a 748 can do.

The B747-8I SuperJumbo can fly every mission the B777-300ER can fly, but the SuperJumbo can carry more passengers and more freight farther while burning far less fuel per unit payload. In other words, the B747-8I is far more economical than the B777-300ER -- in rare cases where the demand curve is very broad.



Like most of life's problems, this one can be solved with bending -- Bender Unit 22
User currently offlineJoni From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11016 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):

Uh, no. CASM and payload/range performance are far more important factors than capacity. Also, except in rare exceptions caused by artificial gummint interference, smaller capacity is better given the same CASM and satisfactory payload/range performance.

That's an overly sweeping statement since it depends on the case. For many routes (especially those connecting to Asian megacities, the A380 prime market), an airline can make more profit flying the A380, compared to any planes half the size.


User currently offlineDistantHorizon From Portugal, joined Oct 2005, 224 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 10544 times:

Quoting A380900 (Reply 16):
I'm not worried either!

Me neither.

I actually think the entire planet is quite confortable with it. Big grin


User currently offlineDennys From France, joined May 2001, 900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 10252 times:

I am not worried either . One point occured to me : why not a special 747-8 version for QANTAS just as 300 seats in 3 classes F C Y , provided with special bigger tanks , to make it possible to fly Non Stop LHR - SYD and vv .

denn


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 24, posted (8 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 10215 times:

Quoting Joni (Reply 21):
For many routes (especially those connecting to Asian megacities, the A380 prime market), an airline can make more profit flying the A380, compared to any planes half the size.

Excluding the slot-control exception that I granted above, can you provide a single example?


25 ClassicLover : They already only have 343 seats in the 744ER. I doubt this would happen, though it's a very intriguing idea!
26 Zvezda : CASM would be high and would need to go out full every day with high yields. It would make more sense to build a B787-8ER with the MTOW of the B787-9
27 Boeing767-300 : The 748 has more passenger baggage and I would not be suprised that the 773 could carry more cargo due to its length and shape.
28 Post contains links Keesje : http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...686669.story?coll=chi-business-hed .. the 787 has gotten 59 orders this year. Their popularity raises anew ques
29 JAAlbert : That's not how I read the article. The article begins by saying that Boeing has not landed a single buyer for its passenger version of the 748 since
30 Tockeyhockey : jumbo is a uniquely american word and i think it is best if it is held to label an american jet. jumbo was an over-sized circus elephant, so it's not
31 Revelation : I'm wondering who should be more worried: - Boeing, about the lack of sales for B747-8i/8f - Airbus, about the lack of sales for A340-500/600 Both ar
32 DeltaDC9 : Which is why I think Airbus would have been wise to protect their 330/340 products and wait just a few years to do the 380. Another reason why the 35
33 BlueSky1976 : Actually, 787 is pushing the trend further. It was the 767 that started the long-range market fragmentation. 787 will do to transpacific routes what
34 Ikramerica : Volumetrically yes. But on some routes, I think he is talking by weight. It's a British sland word derived from an African word (don't remember the l
35 WorldXplorer : It is a butchered version of the Swahili word jambo which means "hello". It was the only only African word that the zoo-keepers knew. WorldXplorer
36 Post contains images Astuteman : A pretty impressive achievement to amortize a $4Bn development over 18 frames, I'd have to say, if true. Break-even will be nearer 120 - 150 frames i
37 Skymileman : That is kind of my thought. At that point, I think both manufacturers are in for some very large orders. The 777 and A340, 787 and A350 are great, bu
38 BoomBoom : You seem to have latched on to this $4 billion figure based on one BusinessWeek article and treat it as gospel, while others have put the figure at $
39 Post contains images Johnny : That airplane is ten years too late.That is the answer why they do not sell the pax-version like hot-cakes. It is like the A350 MK2, and it really sho
40 Pbottenb : I must have missed the threads on this, so please update me - Why is it derogatory to use the term Whalejet for the A380? It has been associated with
41 DeltaDC9 : Of course it was a joke, but it was a very mocking one. I agree totally. But I really do like the name Whalejet, and if some airline has the balls to
42 Post contains images BoomBoom : And why doesn't the A380 sell like hotcakes? 20 years too early, perhaps? The BIG difference is Boeing never even offered these marks to the Airlines
43 AirFrnt : Or how about - Airbus, about the lack of sales for the A380? Take a look at the remaining bottom lines, and you will have your answer.
44 DeltaDC9 : And the same will be true for Y1 and Y3 because you cant count the Y2 R&D twice. Funny how so many airlines disagree! Dont appy for that CEO job just
45 Astuteman : I didn't actually say it was derogatory. I suggested a relationship between posters who were derogatory towards the A380, and those that use the term
46 Post contains images Johnny : @BoomBoom I think the A380pax sells ! Probably not like hot-cakes, but i sells!!! @Delta DC9 Are these airlines (which didnt want to have the 777-400)
47 Post contains images Astuteman : However, if Airbus came up with a development of similar nature to the 747-8, I would anticipate an avalanche of posters on here who would assure me
48 Post contains images BoomBoom : Uh, no thanks... Wern't some of these already paid for by prior efforts to update the 747?[Edited 2006-06-02 21:31:58]
49 Stitch : As Zvezda has noted, the 777-300ER does just about everything the 747-400 does and does it cheaper. So a number of airlines are replacing their oldest
50 Post contains images Astuteman : Fortunately, I'm not expecting the need to arise...
51 DeltaDC9 : There is no 777-400, never has been, never will be. 777 is maxed out. Why focus on who doesn't want it? Southwest doesn't want it, does that mean any
52 Columba : I notice a lot of adds for the 747-8 in German news papers recently - not only in aviation magazines but also in political magazines such as "Der Spie
53 Art : "The Chicago-based plane manufacturer launched its 747-8 last November to put competitive pressure on rival Airbus SAS and its A380 superjumbo." If a
54 Areopagus : The term "superjumbo" probably is mostly used generically for any airliner bigger than the 747-400. Just like once upon a time "airbus" was a medium
55 Zvezda : It's been clear for a long time that the quad era is drawing to a close. The widebody twin was one of Airbus' great innovations. We've been over this
56 Post contains images Astuteman : With regards to the engine, certifying the engine/airframe combination will still cost a lot of money, whether it's an "existing" engine or not. It's
57 Art : How much would you guess it would cost? To a layman like me, it seems they would just be returning the aircraft to the design they intended before "u
58 BA787 : Personally i think Boeing and Airbus have made mistakes with their new models. The new 787 is amazing and in an effort to fill a gap Airbus has messed
59 Stitch : The 787 is a response to Airbus' success with the A330. It does not fill any "gap" as Boeing offers two families (three if you count the 757-300) in
60 BA787 : I agree but if Airbus was confident about the A350, why have they renewed the A350 program to try and comnpete with Boeing. And the 747-8 was a!mess
61 AvObserver : Airbus is renewing the A350 because it's for a larger market and important customers criticized the initial design which was weak against the 787. Th
62 Stitch : The current A350 was a solid update to their excellent A330 and would have been a perfectly logical replacement for the A342 and A343 and upgauge to
63 Post contains images Astuteman : Even though the -800 has been explcitly designed with a stretch in mind, implementing it still costs money. Although the structure will be designed i
64 Post contains images Art : Thanks for taking the trouble to explain some of the tasks involved in an unshrink. So at $300 million+ sales price, the revenue from selling a single
65 Post contains images Astuteman : Like it   However, to stop me getting a flaming at some stage, I wasn't necessarily inferring that the A380-900's total development will only be $30
66 Tockeyhockey : ask anyone around the world what country they think of when they hear the word "jumbo" and they will say the US. also, Jumbo's current meaning has be
67 DeltaDC9 : Cant agree with that at all. The 747 program has a profit potential of 20% per plane, but that number is lower now due to the current production rate
68 Post contains images Astuteman : Which AFAIK supports the view that the 747-8, which is having a hell of a lot more done to it (vis-a-vis the 744) than the A389 is (vis-a-vis the A38
69 Post contains links RedFlyer : Not sure why there's ambiguity around the development costs of the 747-8. It's already been reported that the development costs are around $4 Billion
70 Ikramerica : It was made famous in the English speaking world at the London Zoo. The elephant was so famous as a novelty, that Barnum bought the elephant and brou
71 PolymerPlane : True but 744 has broken even several years and hundreds airframes ago. 747-8 does not have to cover the 744 development cost. A388 has not even break
72 Keesje : Isn´t the 747-8 two aircraft? Let me guess who this creative analist is.. I wonder what is worse: selling 1 aircaft after 6 months, or 0. I always le
73 RedFlyer : While the jury may still be out on the A380, I don't think anyone seriously thinks it's going to be "real good" from a sales perspective. With every
74 Post contains images PolymerPlane : Yeah, and what IF the A380 crash mid air due to insufficient wing design, the fuel burn is really high, and the wake vortex is so strong that it need
75 787engineer : If you count a pax version and a freight version as separate aircraft then sure, the 747-8 is two airplanes. Considering that EIS for Y3 is at least
76 Keesje : there are signs a few customers are round the corner (europe, india, china) that will create a deafening silence here on a.net (the few minutes neede
77 Dalecary : Are there? China is a probability. Kingfisher orders all Airbus aircraft so they have ordered A380. Europe? Heard nothing. The price of oil at the mo
78 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I wonder what's worse, selling 1 "40-year old"aircraft after 6 months, or sellling ZERO/NADA/ZILCH of the latest technological VLA (one which is supp
79 Post contains images Stitch : Then the market for the 748I will be that much smaller, but you already know that, I am sure. I would not be surprised for Airbus to announce a few m
80 Keesje : Air India, BA, Air China, All Nippon, Singapore .. do a news google & look real good what they say / don´t say Yes the A380 uses a lot more fuel the
81 11Bravo : If those two airlines are around the corner, Airbus must be a long way from that particular corner. Maybe a very dim light at the end of a long tunne
82 JayinKitsap : There are 562 744's delivered to date (not counting 743 and 742). If the replacement market of the 744 goes 25% for the 748 that is 140 units. Boeing
83 AirMailer : I didn't realize that that building the new engines that the A389 was so cheap.
84 PolymerPlane : So? nephews and Trent family does not mean it has the same efficiency. A330 uses Trent, it is getting killed by the efficiency of 787's engine. When
85 RedFlyer : There are signs [for the 747-8] a few customers are round the corner (Asia, Europe) that will create a deafening silence here on a.net (the few minut
86 Post contains links RedFlyer : Hey Keesje: Do you remember when Leahy spoke these famous words... John Leahy, the senior vice-president (commercial) of European aircraft manufactur
87 Post contains images Astuteman : It isn't, but that's the point, really Thanks for the links, RedFlyer If you're referring to the 747-8, I can only say I agree. For the avoidance of
88 HB88 : "pseudo-problem"? Do you cut grass for Randy? The 787 fuselage fab does have a few problems. I'm absolutely stunned (although I shouldn't be surprise
89 Post contains links Jacobin777 : Pardon? Where is the "denial"?...8/9 barrels are ready, they were experimenting with new techniques...possibly fine-tuning the new methodologies....t
90 HB88 : Well, as a former scientist myself, my take on the media reports on the issues with the barrel fab was NOT just "oh well, it's an experiment, it does
91 Dalecary : Air India: not likely IMO but possible. BA: not likely at all. Most media I have read favours the 748I Air China: Likely. All Nippon: You are kidding
92 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Gee..really? I never knew... So what's your point? it has nothing to do with my comments addressed to PolymerPlane.....I stated "peudo-problem" becau
93 HB88 : Well if you did, it didn't come across in your post. That's where I don't agree. Using "pseudo-problem" to me, is completely incorrect and assumes a
94 Rheinbote : That's really bad news for the A340's horizontal tail then I guess. And its 'wet' to boot, housing the trim fuel tanks. When was the last time you he
95 Art : BA A380 order round the corner? There is bu**er all chance of a BA order for anything with wings being round the corner. They keep telling us that th
96 Post contains links and images Keesje : BA With regard to the A380, the carrier needs to be satisfied that the additional cost and complexity associated with a new fleet type is justified by
97 Post contains images Stitch : I've said it before, I'll say it again now, and I am sure I will be saying it again and again for months to come... Boeing is not building the 787 in
98 Post contains images Jacobin777 : -I guess we'll agree to disagree.. -not worth the effort, and I was taking the piss anyway.... -again, we'll agree to disagree.....and I don't think
99 Dalecary : This from ATW this week doesn't sound too good for the A380 at BA: With regard to the A380, the carrier needs to be satisfied that the additional cos
100 Hb88 : The 340 HTP is not completely composite and there are still metallic conduction paths in the structure for the charge to dissipate. Also, apart from
101 Rheinbote : Glad to agree on this, Hb88. In a fully composite airframe without any inherent conductive paths, a dedicated current return network has to be instal
102 Keesje : I could read it like this - the A380 is in evaluation - we are not satisfied over the price / conditions (Airbus do something) - we are looking at a
103 Post contains images Brendows : Yes, you would probably read it that way First, why wouldn't BA evaluate the A388? Remember, it may also be read like this: - It doesn't fit BA's rou
104 Post contains images Keesje : Why have it in evaluation then ? Yes you could read it like this too. However I see no link to what BA says & sounds more like an unrelated personal
105 Post contains images Stitch : Good thing the Seattle Times article notes that Boeing will ensure the 787 is safe just as Airbus has the A340. I tell ya, when the 787 finally enters
106 MCIGuy : From the standpoint of an aviation enthusiast, I've always thought the A380 was an exciting development, going back to when I saw the first drawings i
107 Post contains images Brendows : That it doesn't fit their route structure may have come up after an evaluation you know That's why I wrote the following: "Remember, it may also be r
108 Stitch : The business case when she was conceived and launched made sense, at least to me, as fares and traffic were both high. Honestly, even now her sheer s
109 Post contains images MCIGuy : Agreed, I could always see it being a relative hit in Asia, but never in the Western world. The A380 just happened to come at a time when most Wester
110 RedFlyer : The problem is that the aviation world has evolved in the roughly 10 years since the A380 was conceived. The higher the ticket price, the less likely
111 Post contains images Stitch : I doubt the world's airlines do product development in a vacuum. There is a reason they are collectively spending billions to improve their First and
112 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Stitch, I'll respectfully disagree here...at the end of the day, for the most part, according to Zvezda's Law, carriers will first look at CASM....ye
113 RedFlyer : They don't. But like I said, the market is and has been evolving. 10 years ago, the A380's market case was a lot stronger than it is today. Perhaps,
114 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ..but the 747-8F will do very well over the life of the program..for practical purposes to Boeing, they could care less who they sell to...as long as
115 Lehpron : There are two major (meaning many other) methods to introduce a new product, either build for an existing market or build for a future one. While the
116 JayinKitsap : I think the VLA market is in a pause right now. Player 1 is the 747, which has a new model that looks nice for passengers (and great for freight). Pla
117 Post contains links Keesje : British Airways' new Terminal Five at Heathrow will have facilities to handle 14 Airbus A380 super-jumbos, fuelling speculation that the UK flag carr
118 Dalecary : Possibly not, but a lot of airlines have! You will be upset when BA don't order the A380 won't you, Keesje. They may very well go 777/787, because sl
119 Keesje : Well w'll have to agree to disagree then. The future will tell us what 'll happen. Back to subject these (these threads on Boeing always tend to go A
120 Trex8 : strictly speaking not true as CIs order for what are certainly the last four 744 passenger jets was in Nov 02.
121 Stitch : Yet the first element in CASM is "Cost". You can have a CASM of 1 cent a mile, but if your revenue is .5 cents a mile, you're losing money and will e
122 Jacobin777 : true, however you are talking in theor only...not to mention, smaller planes also increase 1)flexibility 2)keep higher yields....as the larger the pl
123 DeltaDC9 : The market was waiting for a better 747, and Boeing was responsible for that by promising one. Why wont people give them some time, its not like they
124 Keesje : Do you assume the cargo market is a s profitable as the cargo market? You just made that one up didn't you? Won't Boeing have their hands full on oth
125 DeltaDC9 : Yes I do assume the cargo market is as profitable as the cargo market. Is it as profitable as the passenger market? Apples and oranges. They are maki
126 Brendows : IIRC, QF is going to use T5. And who knows, other carriers might do it fifteen+ years from now? Why waste the money NOT preparing T5 for an aircraft
127 Jacobin777 : I'm wasn't disagreeing with you, all I was saying is that it would be nice if they did..I expect a few to order...such as BA, CX, UA, 9W, LH.... for
128 DeltaDC9 : I know, I am just frustrated that with all the knowledge relayed here by people who know what they are talking about, like you, posters still think 6
129 Stitch : A sale is a sale. And since the airlines buy most of the interior fittings seperately and deliver them to the manufacturer for installation, a freigh
130 Post contains images PolymerPlane : cargo market IS as profitable as cargo market what? a sale is a sale, and a back log is a back log. What's the problem? The production rate is at wha
131 BoomBoom : Keesje, you should never accuse anyone of making stuff up (Pot meet Keesje). Actually new frieghters are more profitable than new pax aircraft.[Edite
132 Post contains images Jacobin777 : got ya'....
133 AirMailer : I respectfully disagree Stitch. If I were a betting man (which I ocassionally am) I'd put my money on the 767-200... and by that I mean to refer to M
134 Post contains images AirMailer : Not to pick a fight or anything, but I think your argument just defeated itself. (Unless I am misunderstanding something.) If the "C"osts of the 787-
135 Stitch : My hypothetical argument is predicated on the ability to put more of the "revenue generating goodies" in an A380 thanks to the greater floor area. So
136 Dalecary : That was the original plan. I think most O/W carriers including QF are now goimg into the reworked T3. It gave QF more connection options with otherO
137 Post contains images Brendows : Thanks for the correction Dale
138 Post contains images Keesje :       Don't have customers anything to say anymore?    Well it's not what we see happening. IMO airlines seldom make a trade-off between two sm
139 Post contains images DeltaDC9 : Then explain how the 767 replaced the 747, but in much larger numbers, on trans-Atlantic flights. More frequency and flexibility is a consideration.
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