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Can Boeing Preempt A350RN With B777 Announcement?  
User currently offlineBaron95 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1335 posts, RR: 8
Posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8973 times:

All the latest news and discussions presume that around mid-July (Farnborough) Airbus will announce an A350RN (real new) that will aim squarely at the 777-200 and 777-300 market, while offering some competition to the 787.

If so, Airbus must be getting data from the engine manufacturers that next-gen engines will be available to lift a twin-engine 777-300-sized plane and under. Presumably the same engine info is available to Boeing.

The question then is, does Boeing sit idly by OR they preempt Aibus and announce a refreshed 777-800 and 777-900 that are simply the 777 models with next-gen engines (maybe 10% more fuel efficient) and have 787 cabin/cockpit improvements. I think that plane can match the EIS of the A350RN and cost $3B or less to do.

What do you think? Possible? If not now, when should we expect a response like that assuming A350RN launches at Farnborough?

Thanks.

[Edited 2006-06-02 21:42:29]


Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4318 posts, RR: 28
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8945 times:

It would be to Boeing's benefit to wait and see what Airbus announces. Perhaps even wait until Airbus is knee-deep in developing the RN before announcing their next move regarding the 777.


I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlineBoeing Nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8926 times:

Boeing has always stated that once the 787 development program has settled down, they would conduct studies to apply 787 technology to the 777 line. It won't be hard to do.

Another potential problem I see for Airbus is they are leaving another class of airplane wide open for Boeing. If Airbus concentrates on a competitor to Boeing in the 250-400 passenger range (787-9,10 & 772 & 773) that's going to leave the 200-250 segment wide open for the 787-3,8 to pounce on for quite some time. Because Airbus has nothing on the table currently to replace the A310, A300, correct?


User currently offlineNewark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 30
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8899 times:

Quoting Boeing Nut (Reply 2):
It won't be hard to do.

That's easier said than done.  Wink

Harry



Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8872 times:

Crystal ball:

I speculate that the next move regarding the 777 will be the importation of 787 technology to the frame, possibly including the development of an all new replacement with an all composite fuselage.

This will come well after (perhaps 1-2 years) Airbus has comitted the mistake of announcing a new A-350/5 and has locked in the design as an Ali-Li product weighing much more than the new, composite 777 would.

This will effectively kill the A-350/370 (whatever) program and force Airbus into a composite product line.  bigthumbsup 



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1876 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8800 times:

Why would Boeing bother with 777? They have 787-9 and proposed 787-10 on the lower end, with 787-10 very likely to evolve into 8,500 nm -10ER the same way 777-300 evolved into -300ER. Then on the higher end there will be Yellowstone-3.
If Airbus wants their new plane to kick butt, it beter have a superior range (read: SYD-LHR with 200 - 250 pax) with relatively good CASM, otherwise once Y3 hits, it will be a toast.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineGrantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 430 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8692 times:

Boeing will have the bulk of the 300-400 seat market sewn up before the A350RN/A370 comes to market. That market will be relatively quiet for a few years till the early 772's and A340s come up for replacement. Until then, I would imagine Boeing would focus on the 737RS.

User currently offlineBoeing Nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8550 times:

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 3):
That's easier said than done.

Savin' that one, were ya'?  Wink

Regards


User currently offlineRedChili From Norway, joined Jul 2005, 2260 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8482 times:

I agree with BlueSky. If Boeing is really going to produce a 787-10, then refreshing the 772 with 787 technology will be a complete waste of money. Why would anyone bother buying the spruced-up 772 when the 787-10 is supposed to be far better?


Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
User currently offlineSaturn5 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8446 times:

The MTOW will be identical for both the 787-9 and 787-10 so there is a limit how 'big' the 787-10 can be, Boeing at the moment expects 787-10 to be in the 300-310 seats category, not exactly a replacement for the 777 family. Also, lets remember that 787-10 is still a bit undefined - Boeing claims it has at least another 12 months to define the exact 787-10 configuration and yes, they are looking among other things, at what Airbus will come up with for their 350 follow-up.

[Edited 2006-06-02 23:30:32]

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30906 posts, RR: 87
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8392 times:
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I also believe Boeing will wait and see what Airbus announces and how customer reaction to it falls.

The A350-1000 is not expected to EIS for close to a decade, which allows Boeing to continue to sell 773ERs for many years to customers with needs. And they will no doubt try to improve it as much as possible, though they will encounter the same limitations that Airbus did with the A350 by trying to keep it in the same family as the A330/A340.

Airbus will no doubt offer A346s at fire-sale lease and purchase rates both to keep that line alive and to serve as a hold-over until the A370-1000 is available, and that should blunt some of Boeing's gains, but I still expect Boeing to take the lion's share of large widebody twin orders through 2013 or so.

Where the A370 strategy could hurt Airbus is that where the 787-10 and 777-300ER compliment each other as stepping stones, Airbus will be in the same position as Boeing is in currently - a weak small widebody twin (the 767/A330) and a strong medium-to-large widebody twin (the 777/A370). The current demand curve is in the larger widebody segment, but a large number of 767s, A342s, A343s and 772s are coming up for replacement in the next decade and not so many 773ERs and A346s and Boeing will be offering the stronger product line in that zone.


And while Boeing will be soldiering on for at least a few years with the 777 against the A370, Y3 will be a stronger competitor to the A370 then the A350 was to the 787, since Y3 will incorporate all the advances and benefits Y2 have brought to the 787 over the A350. So the A370 may enjoy a shorter "window of opportunity" then the 787 will.


User currently offlineGrantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 430 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8348 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
And while Boeing will be soldiering on for at least a few years with the 777 against the A370, Y3 will be a stronger competitor to the A370 then the A350 was to the 787, since Y3 will incorporate all the advances and benefits Y2 have brought to the 787 over the A350

So in other words, when the replacement market for this size/range jet opens up again, the Y3 will be there, ready to take the bulk of the orders. Airbus will either be too late for this cycle and too early for the next cycle. Surely their market forecasters know this? But then again, isn't the A380 in the same boat - coming to market at the low point of sales in its category?


User currently offline11Bravo From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1718 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8312 times:

I don't think Boeing should do much of anything in response to whatever it is Airbus is going to do at Farnborough. Trying to "respond" to the other guy in the short-term is probably a bad idea. Airbus is flopping around like a fish on the dock right now with the A350 program because they have been reactive rather than proactive in their development strategy.

Unless Airbus comes out with something that is really revolutionary at Farnborough, which I think is very unlikely, Boeing should just stick to its "Y" plan.

2004-2008 (Y2) 787
2009-2012 (Y1) 737 replacement
2013-2016 (Y3) 777 replacement

Boeing has had great success with the B787, not because they reacted to Airbus, but because they listened to customers and worked hard to produce an innovative and well designed aircraft.

Obviously you can't just ignore what the competition does entirely, but if you get too wrapped-up in the tit-for-tat action and reaction game, you may well miss the opportunity to do something better.

Time-frame is key as well. Concentrating only on what's happening now or in the next five years is a mistake. Both Boeing and Airbus need to think about what kind of aircraft they need to be successful in 10, 15, or 20 years. A short-term reactive development philosophy probably doesn't work well to achieve that long-run success.

For example, I've heard lots of people here talk about the A350-1000 as a "B773ER Killer". That's all fine and well, but the A350-1000 will be competing against Y3, not the B773ER, for most of its product cycle. Airbus needs to make sure they work at building the very best aircraft they can to insure it's still competitive when the B773ER is replaced.



WhaleJets Rule!
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8226 posts, RR: 8
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8279 times:

Unless Airbus targets the initial 370 at the 777 I doubt it will make a lot of difference over the next few years. A & B will fight it out in the 787/370 market where the planes are close, with the larger planes sitting on the sideline.

If Airbus goes after the 777 first then Boeing is still in a pretty good position. They can downplay the 20% reduction in operating costs Airbus may claim by saying that any gains from new engines will also be available for the 777, plus pointing out the ongoing improvements that have increased performance to date. The 777 performance is going to continue to be a moving target, diluting claims Airbus may wish to make.

As long as the 777 can continue to improve Boeing will be able to focus on Y1 before going for Y3. I think Y1 will be easier to complete and will generate more sales and more profit than the 777 on an annual basis.


User currently offlineBaron95 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1335 posts, RR: 8
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8247 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 5):
Why would Boeing bother with 777?

Are you really saying that Boeing will let the 777 become prematurely uncompetitive without doing anything as simple as a cabin/cockpit refresh and hanging next-gen engines on?

I think not. Given past history, Boeing does not let airframes die that young.

I think it may go in sequence: 787, 747-refresh (aka 748i), 777-refresh, 737RS (aka Y1), Y3.



Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12499 posts, RR: 46
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8247 times:
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Quoting Boeing Nut (Reply 2):
that's going to leave the 200-250 segment wide open for the 787-3,8 to pounce on

Except the 787-3 is an altogether much larger plane.

From Boeing's own 787 pages:

Quote:
A third 787 family member, the 787-3 Dreamliner, will accommodate 290 - 330 passengers and be optimized for routes of 3,000 to 3,500 nautical miles (5,550 to 6,500 km).

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787family/background.html



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 8162 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 15):
Except the 787-3 is an altogether much larger plane.

From Boeing's own 787 pages:

Those numbers are for two class configurations, with even more variation depending on whether one chooses 8Y or 9Y economy seating. An A332 in a two class config would also have high capacity.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12499 posts, RR: 46
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 8056 times:
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Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 16):
Those numbers are for two class configurations, with even more variation depending on whether one chooses 8Y or 9Y economy seating.

Indeed, but it's still a lot larger than a 200 seater A310.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30906 posts, RR: 87
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8023 times:
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Quoting Grantcv (Reply 11):
So in other words, when the replacement market for this size/range jet opens up again, the Y3 will be there, ready to take the bulk of the orders. Airbus will either be too late for this cycle and too early for the next cycle. Surely their market forecasters know this? But then again, isn't the A380 in the same boat - coming to market at the low point of sales in its category?

It is a risk Airbus needs to consider, as well as the risk the A370-1000 program is to it's own A380 program, since it will have better CASM. Yes, the A380 will still have capacity and for some airports that will be the most important criteria, but many more airports won't be slot/gate/runway gridlocked and many potential (and even current) A380 customers may forgo purchasing more of the A380 and select the A370.

Boeing at least will get almost two decades out of the 777-200 before the 787-10 and A370-900 supercede it. The A380 may not even get a decade before it's own product seriously crimps it, to say nothing of whatever Boeing's 787-10, 777-300ER, and 747-8 can do.

As to the 787-3, I still believe her future lies in domestic China and India, as well as US domestic carriers.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7863 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 17):
Indeed, but it's still a lot larger than a 200 seater A310.

A 2 class A310 seats 240 passengers, so the gap between the lower end of the 2 class spec for the 787-3 is only half as big. Of course the A300-600 fits there.

But the original point still stands that Airbus has nothing to offer in the 200-250 pax, if you recognize that range is for 3 classes, other than the A332 if they don't come up with something like the A358. The 787-8 and -3 would fit in that space when configured with 3 classes. More specifically these aircraft provide cabin area and payload suitable for the 3 class 200-250 pax range.

Max Payload (t)cabin area (sq. m)
767-200ER35.6154.9
A31032.9~180
767-300ER43.8184.5
A300-600R39.1209.0
767-400ER46.5~210
787-845.7223.8
A350-80045.9229.2
A330-20043.1231.4
787-955.0257.4
A330-30046.4259.1
A350-90049.8262.9



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineDa man From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 887 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7820 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 5):
Why would Boeing bother with 777? They have 787-9 and proposed 787-10 on the lower end, with 787-10 very likely to evolve into 8,500 nm -10ER the same way 777-300 evolved into -300ER. Then on the higher end there will be Yellowstone-3.

787-10 wouldn't enter service until after 2012, therefore the updated 777 would have a few years before being superceded.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 19):
Of course the A300-600 fits there.

Airbus is closing the A300/A310 line when they complete the existing orders already in the books (except the Iraqi Airways A310 order)



War Eagle!
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1876 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7809 times:

Quoting Saturn5 (Reply 9):
The MTOW will be identical for both the 787-9 and 787-10 so there is a limit how 'big' the 787-10 can be, Boeing at the moment expects 787-10 to be in the 300-310 seats category, not exactly a replacement for the 777 family.

787-10 is limited only by two things: MTOW its frame can handle and the engine thrust. Widebodyphotog's charts have shown that the 8,500nm range 787-10ER is possible, the only limitation at the moment is the lack of bleedless 85k pound thrust engine. However, Rolls Royce did mention that it is possible for them to upgrade the current Trent-1000 to that level of thrust . Also, remember that Boeing uses three-class configuration as it's 'base' capacity. so 300 - 310 seats with three class and 8-abreast economy layout could mean that 787-10 could already be 350 - 370 seater with two class 9-abreast economy layout. Everything will depend on what optimal capacity customers would require. The way I see it is that we'll see the 'base' payload-for-range basic 787-10 stretch launched within next 6 - 12 months followed by the 'true' 777-replacement: a 787-10ER with 8,500 - 9,000nm range offered as soon as the adequate engine becomes available.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7775 times:

Quoting Baron95 (Thread starter):

If so, Airbus must be getting data from the engine manufacturers that next-gen engines will be available to lift a twin-engine 777-300-sized plane and under. Presumably the same engine info is available to Boeing.

The information is probably available to Boeing, but the engines are not. Boeing granted GE a contractual monopoly on engines for all B777s above an agreed MTOW. 700K lbs?


User currently offlineSaturn5 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7754 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 21):
787-10 is limited only by two things: MTOW its frame can handle and the engine thrust

Nope. According to Mike Bair from Boeing 787-10's MTOW is limited by the strength of its landing gear which is going to be identical to 787-9's. That is why both MTOW must be identical. So it is not the frame or the engine thrust in this case.


User currently offlineBoeing Nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 7690 times:

Quoting RedChili (Reply 8):
Why would anyone bother buying the spruced-up 772 when the 787-10 is supposed to be far better?

Maybe because the spruced up 772 might out perform the 787-10.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 15):
Except the 787-3 is an altogether much larger plane.

Not really, and it seems others agree. It al depends on the configuration


25 Atmx2000 : But the question you should be asking is why they didn't strengthen the undercarriage to support a higher MTOW. And that is because engine availabili
26 Saturn5 : Again, in the article in AW&ST Mike Bair is quoted on the subject extensively. He doesn't mention engines but he mentiones the fact that both 787-9 a
27 DfwRevolution : The proper question is one of value, or return on investment. Boeing can stretch and beef-up the 787 to fully supercede the 772ER in all aspects of r
28 Atmx2000 : Of course it would be -10 specific, unless they chose to use the same undercarriage for the -9. But remember Boeing has also said that they don't wan
29 FlyABR : i thought i read somewhere that the landing gear being developed for the 787-10 would also be used on the 787-9...despite the fact that the 10 is com
30 FlyDreamliner : Unless you are successfully picking lottery numbers, I'm not sure how you can feel certain in saying this. Boeing doesn't even know for sure yet what
31 Post contains images Scbriml : Well, if people would make their minds up, we could have a reasoned discussion! The 787-3 is about 25% bigger by floor area than an A310. CSA, for ex
32 Bestwestern : Basically we are discussing a medium haul replacement for the 757. Neither manufacturer is seriously playing in this segment at present - probably a
33 Post contains links KC135TopBoom : The B-737-900ER will seat 215, in a single class and fly them up to 3200nm http://www.boeing.com/commercial/737family/pf/pf_900ER_fact.html Boeing al
34 Scbriml : Yes all true currently, but no new offerings from either Airbus or Boeing in the A310/A300 size, short-medium haul. Once the A350 and 787 are being d
35 Glideslope : This is exactly what they will do, and operators know it. IMO, they will wait until A is waist-deep. Not knee-deep.
36 Picard : To change the fuselage of the 777 from Ali to Composite is not a simply job, although the technology would or should be mature in roughly 2 years tim
37 Post contains images Joni : You make it sound so easy But what if Airbus reads this forum and now they just got wind of the plan?
38 Post contains images BA787 : Isn't the 777 a little young for replacement. The A350RN will have to be excellent to compete anyway Would i be right in thinking that you dont like A
39 Stitch : The 787-3 is optimized for the Japanese carriers right now, since they're the ones buying it. And I would not be surprised that it meets the needs for
40 BoomBoom : It seems the cut-throat competition between A and B has shortened the life of models. I'm sure A didn't plan on replacing the A340 this soon either.
41 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Interesting idea... to really pull it off, Randy Baseler would have to fire up his blog first with something about the A350RN being a "chinese copy"
42 Post contains images Stitch : True, the A380 has at least two stretches in her, and Airbus may accelerate the A380-900 both to keep the A370 from infringing on the lower end as we
43 Zvezda : I would count on the Airbus NSR (A320 replacement) and the B737RS (B737/B757 replacement, formerly known as Y1) scaling to at least B757-200 size. Ar
44 Stitch : Sorry, I should have been more clear: Since the A380-800 is the "shrink", Stretch 1 would be the A380-900 (getting her to the "baseline" config) and
45 DfwRevolution : The A380-800 is not a shrink. It is the base variant. It was built with the capability for a stretch. For Airbus, this is a considerable shift toward
46 Stitch : Hmm... I have read here that the A380-900 was the "optimal" size for things like the wings and such, but that Airbus chose a smaller initial airframe
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