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Airbus Saving Orders For Airshow  
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4312 posts, RR: 29
Posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9123 times:

Apparently they've sold only 6 aircraft in May. Are they saving for Farnborough? If they are, will they catch up to or surpass Boeing in the orders count?


I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 52
Reply 1, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9099 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
will they catch up to or surpass Boeing in the orders count?

Is it going to rain in Toulouse tomorrow?  yawn 

[Edited 2006-06-07 21:28:25]

User currently offlineBoeingFever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 54
Reply 2, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9005 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
If they are, will they catch up to or surpass Boeing in the orders count?

Doubt they will... And yes they are saving orders just like they did 31st Dec. 05.

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 2):
Yeah...saving orders for toilet paper from them sh*ting their pants when Boeing comes out with a ton of orders Big grin

LMAO... Good one just what I needed before I go to work here. Big grin

Only time and the Airshow will tell the story.



Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
User currently offline11Bravo From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1717 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8914 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
Apparently they've sold only 6 aircraft in May. Are they saving for Farnborough?

I'm sure they are saving orders, they always do for the big shows.

It seems to me though that lots of people here expect that Airbus is going to announce one or even two new aircraft types (A350x/A370) along with a whole bunch of big launch orders for QR, SQ, EK, etc.

That seems like such an unrealistic expectation to me. I look forward to seeing what Airbus is going to do here, but I'll be very surprised if we see any major orders for the new aircraft.

On the Boeing side, I think it's possible we might see the formal launch of the B787-10, and/or a decision on increased B787 production. It's probably a bit early for either of those announcements, but it's possible.



WhaleJets Rule!
User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 52
Reply 4, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8845 times:

EADS may announce that LockheedMartin will take the 20% stake in Airbus abandoned by BAE Systems.
The UAE may announce that they'll take 15% EADS shares sold off by Lagardére and DaimlerChrysler...or Russia, or the Chinese do.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 4):
It's probably a bit early for either of those announcements, but it's possible.

 tongue 


User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4312 posts, RR: 29
Reply 5, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8700 times:

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 4):
On the Boeing side, I think it's possible we might see the formal launch of the B787-10

Year end is what I read somewhere.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 4):
a decision on increased B787 production.

Very likely. In fact, I'm willing to bet QR will be the deciding factor on whether or not they start a 2nd line. I'd bet Boeing has told them they will open a 2nd line if they order the 787 helping to speed up deliveries to them.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 4):
That seems like such an unrealistic expectation to me. I look forward to seeing what Airbus is going to do here, but I'll be very surprised if we see any major orders for the new aircraft.

So what do you think will be the major orders that they've sand-bagged thus far and will announce at the airshow?

They've booked a total of six frames in May, 3 from private buyers, and only one of them was a wide-body (again, a private buyer). Given that their wide-body line is not doing well, I suspect they will announce some large orders for the new 350/370.



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8700 times:

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 5):
EADS may announce that LockheedMartin will take the 20% stake in Airbus abandoned by BAE Systems.

Interesting theory, my theory is that BAE and Lockheed might jump into bed.



Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8687 times:

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 4):
On the Boeing side, I think it's possible we might see the formal launch of the B787-10, and/or a decision on increased B787 production. It's probably a bit early for either of those announcements, but it's possible.

Maybe even some 748 pax?



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 52
Reply 8, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8558 times:

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 7):
Interesting theory, my theory is that BAE and Lockheed might jump into bed.

True, LockMart is a gorgeous bride, but BAE doesn't exactly look like a handsome husband from here - ever heard about the Nimrod MRA program?

While we are at it - LockMart is awash in top-notch engineering capabilities desperately sought by both A and B right now. Makes me wonder who'll be first to find out?
Likewise, Embraer looks like an attractive partner to both A and B. Fully up to Boeing's standards in digital product definition and global collaborative network infrastructure, and familiar with Japanese partners. OTOH, EADS already has a token share in that company.
Personally, I'd love to see Dassault taking the 15% of EADS shares and/or 20% of Airbus shares currently at stake. If anything comes near Skunk Works in Europe, it's probably Dassault.

[Edited 2006-06-07 23:21:24]

User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8162 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8558 times:

What's an air show without Airbus pulling out a surprise or two? I would look for a formal 370 announcement, along with at least one LOI (just for the heck of it), some nice 320 orders and, with luck, at least one 380 order - even if it is a small one.

On the Boeing side I would look for the 787 production ramp (if it hasn't been announced by then) maybe with LOIs from a few airlines, an announcement of who bought the 20 777s and the 747 - especially if the 747s are 748i's. They might even throw in a small 777 upgrade if Airbus announces the 370 - just to throw off the stats that Airbus will be presenting.

Then, of course, there will probably be a visit by the 380 to keep things interesting.


User currently offline11Bravo From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1717 posts, RR: 10
Reply 10, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8442 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 6):
So what do you think will be the major orders that they've sand-bagged thus far and will announce at the airshow?

I have no idea honestly; probably some narrowbody orders?, A330 follow ons?, A380?, some new start-up ordering 50 airframes? I'm sure they'll come up with something; they always do. We'll likely hear some rumors in the next two weeks or so.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 10):
What's an air show without Airbus pulling out a surprise or two?

 checkmark 

The one other observation I'll make is that we aviation enthusiasts got really spoiled with the number of orders last year. That sort of activity simply isn't sustainable. We should expect to see some slim pickins at the airshows, and in general, for the next few years.

As I said in another forum, Airbus can't continue to sell aircraft at three times their rate of production. That's true of Boeing as well. At some point Orders=Production. If you're going to rack up 1000 orders in a year, you're gonna have to match that with some lean order years for it to balance out.



WhaleJets Rule!
User currently offlineKatekebo From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 702 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 8442 times:

Airbus could announce the launch of a A350/370 program that will replace their current A330/340 line. The A350 would the smaller of the two, covering from 250 to 350 seats, with the smaller version intended for mid- and long-range operations, and the bigger one being a mid-range airplane. The A370 will have a bigger/reinforced wing, more powerfull engines, and will cover from 350 to 450 seats, with long-range and ultra-long-range versions. They will share common fuselage, outer wing sections and flight-deck. The A350 could be ready 6 years from now, while the A370 will come 2 years later.

IMHO this would be the right product strategy to compete against the B787, B777 and B747-8.

The issues that Airbus has to address are:
- How to make the A350 superior to the B787 - doable, but not an easy task.
- Financing - such program could easily cost $10b or more.
- It gives the B787 a head-start and uncontested leadership for 3-4 years, and offers little competition to the B777-300ER and B747-8 for even longer time.

However, it would give Airbus a truelly superior product line-up some 8 years from now and force Boeing to come up with Y3 right after the B787.

Airbus has to bite the bullet and make a bold move. Otherwise they will just loose more and more ground in the widebody market.


User currently offlineEchster From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 399 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 8167 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 6):
Very likely. In fact, I'm willing to bet QR will be the deciding factor on whether or not they start a 2nd line. I'd bet Boeing has told them they will open a 2nd line if they order the 787 helping to speed up deliveries to them.

Anyone care to answer this for me? If Boeing opens a 2nd line because of demand, would customers who've already ordered get 1st dibs on those slots, or would they offer them to other airlines?


User currently offlineMptpa From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 544 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 8133 times:

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 12):
The A370 will have a bigger/reinforced wing, more powerfull engines, and will cover from 350 to 450 seats, with long-range and ultra-long-range versions. They will share common fuselage, outer wing sections and flight-deck. The A350 could be ready 6 years from now, while the A370 will come 2 years later.

Even though this may make sense in terms of product lineup, I do not see how Airbus can pull this. The cost of doing 350 and 370 would be much greater that $10B....

Quoting Echster (Reply 13):
Anyone care to answer this for me? If Boeing opens a 2nd line because of demand, would customers who've already ordered get 1st dibs on those slots, or would they offer them to other airlines?

The carriers are tied to the contracts, and they have to plan this ahead in terms of logistics, finacing, training, crew, etc. So Boeing might accomodate some requests...


User currently offlineKFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3294 posts, RR: 30
Reply 14, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 8033 times:

Quoting Echster (Reply 13):
Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 6):
Very likely. In fact, I'm willing to bet QR will be the deciding factor on whether or not they start a 2nd line. I'd bet Boeing has told them they will open a 2nd line if they order the 787 helping to speed up deliveries to them.

Anyone care to answer this for me? If Boeing opens a 2nd line because of demand, would customers who've already ordered get 1st dibs on those slots, or would they offer them to other airlines?

Here's the way I see it:

Hypothetically, if there were orders for 400 aircraft, and 100 planes could be built per year, then it would take 4 years from the start of production before #401 hits the line. (For this example, we'll call this aircraft #1 for Qantas).

Now, say Boeing decides to split the line, bringing the total production rate to 200 per year. How long would it take Qantas' #1 to hit the line, with the same backlog of 400 aircraft? Only Two years now.

So even though they'd still be at the rear of the backlog, their first deliveries would occur a heck of a lot sooner than if Boeing stays with only one production line. I'd see it as a win-win situation for both parties: Boeing gets a major order from a high-profile customer (with assuredly more to follow due to the significantly reduced backlog time), and Qantas gets their hardware far sooner than expected at steal price for "launching" the second production line.



"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
User currently offlineAeroPiggot From United States of America, joined May 2005, 283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 8023 times:

Quote:
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 12):
The A370 will have a bigger/reinforced wing, more powerfull engines, and will cover from 350 to 450 seats, with long-range and ultra-long-range versions. They will share common fuselage, outer wing sections and flight-deck. The A350 could be ready 6 years from now, while the A370 will come 2 years later.

This again is the same comprimised design airbus made on the A330/A340 project, and look what the 777 did to these offerings. You cannot fully optimise an airplane to fulfil that range of requirements, and hope to compete with a fully optimised product (787). A dual product launch after the A380 is doubtful. A simple A330 re-engine, and a A370 launch, makes more sense.   

[Edited 2006-06-08 05:03:25]


A scientist discovers that which exists, an engineer creates that which never was.
User currently offlineBlueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3902 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7841 times:
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Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 15):
Boeing gets a major order from a high-profile customer (with assuredly more to follow due to the significantly reduced backlog time), and Qantas gets their hardware far sooner than expected at steal price for "launching" the second production line.

That is, assuming Qantas wants their hardware sooner than expected. For a number of reasons, some airlines are not necessarily in a position to want their aircraft sooner rather than later.



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlinePADSpot From Germany, joined Jan 2005, 1676 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7376 times:

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 5):
EADS may announce that LockheedMartin will take the 20% stake in Airbus abandoned by BAE Systems.

EADS chief executive Enders already anounced in an interview that EADS is going to take the BAe share by themselves ...


User currently offlineGlideslope From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1601 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 1 month 6 days ago) and read 6774 times:

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 10):
What's an air show without Airbus pulling out a surprise or two?

That's an easy one. Farnborough 06. The magitian has no more rabbits in their hat.  Smile



To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9944 posts, RR: 96
Reply 19, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 6530 times:
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Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 9):
but BAE doesn't exactly look like a handsome husband from here - ever heard about the Nimrod MRA program?

So easy to forget about JSF, Eurofighter, Hawk, and a plethora of high quality upgrades to existing equipment, isn't it?  Smile


User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 6453 times:

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 9):
If anything comes near Skunk Works in Europe, it's probably Dassault.

Word has just come out that the 7x has exceeded all expectations range wise. Out of nowhere it will be competing with the G550 and Global XR. Awesome!


User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 6438 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):

So easy to forget about JSF, Eurofighter, Hawk, and a plethora of high quality upgrades to existing equipment, isn't it?

Not to mention the Saab Gripen project - BAE was a major player in that aircrafts development.


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 5626 times:

Airbus, being the order sandbaggers that they are, will announce something at the show, no doubt.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 5548 times:

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 8):
While we are at it - LockMart is awash in top-notch engineering capabilities desperately sought by both A and B right now. Makes me wonder who'll be first to find out?

Boeing and Lockheed are the aviation equivalent of Romeo and Juliet, they might want each other, but higher powers will not allow the union since there are only two biggies left in the US. Also, I think some here forget that Lockheed is the aerospace technology leader in the US, not Boeing.

Also, on topic, I am wondering if Boeing might at some point try to beat Airbus at their own air show game just for the PR. Kicking Airbus while they are "down" is not below Boeing at all, if they see Benoit in it.



Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineAirMailer From United States of America, joined May 2006, 465 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 years 1 month 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 4748 times:

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 17):
EADS chief executive Enders already anounced in an interview that EADS is going to take the BAe share by themselves ...

... IIRC isn't EADS turning around and selling off a boatload (or 3) of EADS shares to French Banks?

If not wouldn't that put a damper on their cash supply for new projects?


25 Rheinbote : Wouldn't it make sense to differentiate between now and back then, or between BAE and BAe?
26 Post contains links N328KF : Actually, Northrop-Grumman is not exactly small potatoes. In 2004, Lockheed did $34bil in defense business, Boeing did $30.4bil, and Northrop did $22
27 RedFlyer : 8 years from now is a long time away. That would make the 777 family over 20 years old, which would make it ready for replacement or a major upgrade.
28 Cloud4000 : Lockheed and Airbus seems like a natural fit. By having Lockheed as a partner, Airbus hopes to score some defence contracts from the United States, in
29 DeltaSFO : It would probably result in some improvements for existing customers, but I am aware that Boeing is using the 2nd line and its resulting delivery slo
30 Dbo861 : Either way, I think Boeing is in the best position right now. With Airbus spending so much money on their A380 coming out as well as the A350/A370, t
31 Post contains images DeltaDC9 : No they are not, but they are a part of Lockheed. There really is no second tier now.
32 NYC777 : Northrup-Grumman and Lockheed-Martin are two seperate, independent and distinct companies.
33 DeltaDC9 : We are talking about aerospace, not shipbuilding etc. They are no longer a significant player in fixed wing aircraft excpet maybe Global Hawk. The me
34 Post contains images Astuteman : Please forgive me if I've missed your point, Rheinbote, but from a combat aircraft point of view, AFAIK, the change from Bae to BAE SYSTEMS had no im
35 Art : Makes sense to me. I don't see how Airbus could go A350 + A370. Offers the A330 the opportunity to be decimated rather than annihilated, too.
36 Post contains images 787engineer : Well an A350/A370 project similar to Boeing's 757/767 (one with wider fuselage) might be perfect answer to the 777's and 787's success. We don't know
37 N328KF : Northrop is a major player in the UAV space, and I'm not just talking about Global Hawk. If people are right that the F-35 is "the last manned fighte
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