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Northwest Fleet Renewal  
User currently offlineRw From Netherlands, joined Dec 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 1949 times:

I´ve heard that Northwest is going to select either the A330 or the 777 as a replacement for their DC10´s in september. Which plane you think they are choosing?
I think there is a 50/50 chance for both models. The A330 has about the same seating capacity as the DC10s and it would fit to NW´s A320 fleet. But it hasn´t the range of the DC10´s. (Does NW think about A340´s ?) On the other hand the 777 offers much range but seems to be quite big for NW´s routes and it doesn´t have the advantage of acommonality to the A320´s.
By the way: Is NW looking for a replacement for their DC9´s? And are they considering the A3xx / 747X ?
What do you think?

28 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePolaris From Canada, joined Feb 2000, 1142 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 1823 times:

Do they not have A330s on order or option?

User currently offlineNa From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10654 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 1809 times:

Looking at their current widebody-fleet Northwest has to replace all DC-10s and all 747 Classics during this decade. That´s more than 60 planes, fleet growth aside (maybe 30 widebodies more). Only the currently 14 747-400s will most likely survive after 2010.

I expect them to have a mix of Airbus and Boeing widebodies. At the top end NW will most likely order more 747s (747-400Xs and 747X) for fleet growth and as replacements for around half of the 742 fleet. NW uses their aircraft for a very long time and some of the 744s are brandnew. I don´t see them with the A3XX before 2010. There are around 10 747-Classics to be replaced before the A3XX will be in service. Some of them will need a replacement bigger than the smaller A340/B777s, so the 744 is by far the most likely choice.

In the smaller widebody-class maybe they will go for 777s to replace the other half of the 742-fleet and most DC-10-30s. But better is they would go for A340/A330s because the Airbus family has a wider range of sizes/seats. And they will be easier to integrate into the current fleet. I don´t see them go only for 777s to replace the DC-10s. For Transatlantic they don´t need always the range or capacity of the 777-200 (only if Boeing builts the 777-100 NW was asking for, but a shrinked Triple Seven might quite likely have worse economics compared to an A330-200).



User currently offlineJumboClassic From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1782 times:

The favorite topic again, what will NW chose for their DC-10 replacement? Only yesterday I wasn't going to make any predictions, but it seems more likely that they go with the 777. Not the -100 (Boeing is not going to build it), but the -200ER/LR. The 777 is a real money-maker for the airlines and a favorite with the passengers. Look at Air France - they have just exercised 4 more options for the 772ER, bringing their total to 23! For an airline that operates both the 777 and the A340 this speaks volumes.

As for NW, they are looking to make a major fleet decision which will cover not only the -10s, but also the 742s. So the plane they chose for replacement should also have trans-pacific range. So if they chose Airbus, they need both the A330 (for domestic runs and Europe) and A340 (for Asia). The commonality issue is not that big of a factor, since whatever plane they chose, they will need >50, so it will justify the introduction of a different type.

Why I think they will go Boeing? They have already expressed interest in the 777-100, which as a launch customer they could have got very cheap. It looks to me they have made up their mind, but are trying to get a better deal from Boeing.


User currently offlineNwa747-400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1337 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1791 times:

I hope it's DC10s are replaced by 777s.

777s are beautiful airplanes...although NW has been used at least 3 engines of all oceans so they may not want to go to ETOPS.

Maybe it will be the A340 then.



User currently offlineN312RC From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 2682 posts, RR: 16
Reply 5, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 1752 times:

I think that the situation is pretty much a tossup between both airplanes. NW has A-320/A319's. They also have 747/757's. Wont both airplanes have commonality between their respective sisters? What about a replacement for the DC-9 series? Are they replacing then with A319's?? Possibly an order for 717's?


Fly Delta's Big Jets!
User currently offlineJumboClassic From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1743 times:

NW have stated that the -9s will operate until at least 2007, so don't expect replacement decision soon. The cycle limit for the -9s is 104,000 (!!!) before they go for scrap. Pretty impressive for that little old plane.

User currently offlineNwa747-400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1337 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1730 times:

The DC9 is an impressive little plane. All NWs are brand new in side and most are kept shiny on the out.

The A320s/A319s are coming to get rid of the 40 remaining 727s.

Your right, there will probably be a mix of A330s and 777s. Hopefully all the 747-200s can be replaced by -400s, but we'll see.


User currently offlineTifosi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1712 times:

I also believe it will be a mix. Most likely they will Order new 330s for transatlantic and transcon and 777-200LRs for Pacific routes. (this is assuming they are willing to ETOPS certify). The 200LRs aren't going to be available to quickly though so I think they will Lease or buy some used MD-11s in the meantime. Used 340s might also be a possiblity.

Gregg



User currently offlineJumboClassic From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1703 times:

I don't see any indications for this order to be a 330/777 mix. NW will most definitely want only one of these for the 300-seat category. If they chose the 330 for the transcons and Europe, why would they chose the 777 for the Pasific routes? And if they chose the 777 for the Pasific, why not use it for the Atlantic as well? They would definitely prefer only one type.

And why would they get second hand MD-11 or A340s? Please explain. The 772ER will be sufficient for flights to Japan (where NW hubs), and longer routes could wait for the 772LR. But MD-11s instead of LRs??


User currently offlinePANAM_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 4116 posts, RR: 90
Reply 10, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1693 times:
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If used A340's were to be a possibility until 777-200LR's were to become available then perhaps Boeing could offer a very attractive Lease agreement on some of the A340's that they'll be buying from Singapore Airlines until the 777's could be delivered? Only a thought!

Regards



Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
User currently offlineN312RC From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 2682 posts, RR: 16
Reply 11, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1687 times:

The only reason Northwest would get MD-11's is because KLM (partner) is trying to dump them. This is also a real possibility. It is also taking the easy way out of this problem.


Fly Delta's Big Jets!
User currently offlineEyeSky From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 312 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1685 times:
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All make good points above, but what about the 764? Isn't there supposed to be an ER version coming out? Seems to me like that it would seat around the same # of PAX in mixed classes and would be a great DC-10 replacement.

Wasn't the 772 was developed as a replacement for the 742? Wouldn't it be logical for NW to replace their 742's with 772's?

Any thoughts?


User currently offlineJumboClassic From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1673 times:

EyeSky,

that's the whole point. NW wants only one type that will replace both the -10s and the Classics. The 764ERX simply can't do that and having both the 764ERX and the 772 is still two different types, which NW is trying to avoid.

As to the MD-11s, if they had an intention of getting some of those, they might have opted for Swissair's (before FedEx), but instead they are getting more -10s. (Remember, some of their -10s are ex-SR's). This comes to tell me that they intend to keep the -10s till whatever replacement becomes available. To introduce A340 even for a short term seems also quite inefficent, especially if they go for the 777, which I think they will do. Their current expansion needs on the Asian routes will be covered by some used 742s. They are getting some from UA this year.

Now KLM. Yes they are getting rid of their 11's (like everybody else but the cargo carriers) and they are rumored to get the 777 for replacing not only the MD's, but also 763s and 742/3s. Another reason for NW to go 777.


User currently offlineEyeSky From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 312 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1673 times:
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JumboClassic,

Do you have specs for the 764ERX or know where I can go to find them?


User currently offlineAT From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 1007 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1664 times:

since this central question surrounding the NW renewal seems to be
"A330 or 777???", I wanted to ask the pricetags for each type. Isn't the A330 considerably cheaper than the Triple Seven?

And would that influence Northwest's decision?


User currently offlineJumboClassic From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1660 times:

Try this:

http://boeing.com/commercial/767-400erx/product.html


User currently offlineSammyk From United States of America, joined Oct 1999, 1690 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1661 times:
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No matter what Northwest buys, unless they choose ONLY the A340, they will need to be ETOPS certified. You need to have ETOPS to fly the A330 over the Atlantic. So why would it need to be split? Why not just get all 777s if they need trans-atlantic and trans-pacific operations? Instead of getting the A330 and A340 where they would lose engine commonality. With the 777 (if they go w/ GE) they would have engine AND cockpit commonality...I know, the A330 and A340 are similar cockpits, but the 777 is the SAME.

Chances are that NW will embrace ETOPS, since even with the new A340NG will be maintained under ETOPS rules even if they don't need it. Just makes for a better maintained fleet, and greater reliability. Well just my opinion  

Sammy


User currently offlineUSAirways737 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 1026 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1653 times:

It depends on what 777 you are talking about. I would guess the A330-300 and 772 would be about the same. But the 772ER and 772LR would be more. And the 773 would deffinatley be even more.

User currently offlineCba From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 4531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1642 times:

The 764 is the perfect DC-10 replacement. It seats about 250 people, and the ERX will have a range of about 6000 nm, the range of a A330-200. The 777-200LR will also probably be ordered to fill the gap between the 764 and the 747-400/747X.

User currently offlineBlink182 From Azerbaijan, joined Oct 1999, 5480 posts, RR: 15
Reply 20, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1636 times:

I think NW will go Airbus on this one, They are replacing their boeings with Airbus's so I think they might go for the 340's. I kinda think more or less they may also go 777 so I might expect a variation, there really is not such thing as 1 type aircraft that can replace the 742's and DC-10 so i look for Northwest to go eitherway,it is really a toss-up whereas Delta,Continental or American will obviously go boeing. but for Northwest,it is a tossup.
blink182



Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
User currently offlineHypermike From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1001 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1633 times:

Once again, we just won't know until the bean counters tell us what they're going to order.

Now, can we drop this topic? Please. It comes up every two or three days it seems.


User currently offlinePatches From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1620 times:

Just one last note hypermike, The article in the Mpls tribune Only talks about 2 planes 777 or a330. They want one or the other. Right now its a dead heat to the finish line. They dont mention any 767 or a340. its only between these 2 planes. thank you.

User currently offlineHamlet69 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 2735 posts, RR: 58
Reply 23, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 1589 times:

While I won't try and guess which they will chose, one thing seems to be getting clear; the competition to win this order is going to make NW a big winner, and whoever wins, will probably lose money on the deal. It seems for NW, the A330 or 777 would fill the job nicely, although the 777 does seem to have some economic advantages when you view the growth potential. However, either way, the bidding seems to be getting pretty low, and no matter how many planes NW buys, I doubt the winner will come away unscathed.

Hamlet69



Honor the warriors, not the war.
User currently offlineCoronado From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1169 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (13 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 1575 times:
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I project they will end up ordering another 16 744's and 24 of the A340's. Engines are the same as 320's.


The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
25 Na : I would really like it if you´re right, Coronado! More 744s and a fleet of A340s. Great. What about NW buying the A340 fleet of Singapore Airlines?
26 RayChuang : Folks, In regards to replacing the DC-10 fleet, there is right now one issue that may defer any sales of the 767-400ER, 777-200ER or A330-300 to NW: E
27 Md80-4ever : Nw will not purchase b777 or b767 or md11 the choice will be made, more Airbus Aircraft. Nw has long time considered, and has had options for the A330
28 Spence : Better check and see if those 16 A330's they ordered got converted to A320 or A319 orders. I think we are going to see "jumbo twins" for the trans-Atl
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