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First 5 SIA A380s Could Be Loss-Making For Airbus  
User currently offlineSingapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13745 posts, RR: 19
Posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13358 times:

Airbus sees losses on first A380 superjumbos - report
Tue Jun 27, 2006 7:58 PM IST

Airbus Chief Executive Gustav Humbert in the leaked minutes of a May 12 audit committee meeting tells the two chairmen and two CEOs of EADS that the first two A380s to Singapore Airlines would be sold at a loss and there could be more.

"He noted that the two first Singapore Airlines aircraft are at loss and that it is too early to say if the next three, to be delivered early next year, are also at loss," according to the minutes, which French newspaper Le Monde posted on its website.

Reuters


Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
87 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31431 posts, RR: 85
Reply 1, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13277 times:
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When you calculate in the launch discounts and the up-front costs of infrastrucure and components, do the first frames of any plane sell at a profit?

Or is this loss indeed solely due to the production and delivery delays and whatever compensation is having to be paid out?


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10251 posts, RR: 97
Reply 2, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13170 times:
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IIRC Humbert has also said that overall, production won't now start returning profits until 2008, which pretty much backs up this report.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Or is this loss indeed solely due to the production and delivery delays and whatever compensation is having to be paid out?

This is, of course, a good question.

Regards


User currently offlineAerospaceFan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13122 times:

To be honest, I'm not all that concerned that the first few A380's are loss-making, because the A380 is such a new aircraft. I continue to hope and wish the best for the A380 for what it is.

Boeing itself states that there should be around a 300-unit market within which the A380 might compete, IIRC, and so there is room for profit in the future on the Airbus program. This is aside from the fact that there are, what, 150 or so orders for the A380 as it stands.

I don't think, really, that the A380 will be the raging success that its staunchest proponents (read: a certain Mr. Leahy, et al.) urged that it will be, but on the other hand, I think that the A380 will in some ways become iconic and a significant aircraft whatever the numbers of sales it generates. Heck, in some ways, the A380 is already iconic, both in good ways and bad.

Boeing might be right that the A380 market could max out at about 300, but then again, the market might be a bit larger -- say, 400 or 500. And some of that could be the 747-8I. Only time will tell.

As they say, we shall see.


User currently offlineStarGoldLHR From Heard and McDonald Islands, joined Feb 2004, 1529 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13073 times:

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 4):
Boeing might be right that the A380 market could max out at about 300, but then again, the market might be a bit larger -- say, 400 or 500. And some of that could be the 747-8I. Only time will tell.

Why would boeing enter a market where the maximum size is 300 sales, when there already is a new entrant with 50% of that share ?

by the time boeing ramped up... the market would be exhausted.


Come on !!!!



So far in 2008 45 flights and Gold already. JFK, IAD, LGA, SIN, HKG, NRT, AKL, PPT, LAX still to book ! Home Airport LCY
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2829 posts, RR: 42
Reply 5, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 13073 times:

Quoting Singapore_Air (Thread starter):

Airbus Chief Executive Gustav Humbert in the leaked minutes of a May 12 audit committee meeting tells the two chairmen and two CEOs of EADS that the first two A380s to Singapore Airlines would be sold at a loss and there could be more.

"He noted that the two first Singapore Airlines aircraft are at loss and that it is too early to say if the next three, to be delivered early next year, are also at loss," according to the minutes, which French newspaper Le Monde posted on its website.

Ouch.

More importantly, there are rumours floating around from the same leaked minutes that Airbus is looking at restating it's earnings. That's really bad news, if it isn't just a rumour.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31431 posts, RR: 85
Reply 6, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 12755 times:
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Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 4):
Why would boeing enter a market where the maximum size is 300 sales, when there already is a new entrant with 50% of that share? by the time boeing ramped up... the market would be exhausted.

Well it does explain why Boeing decided against "clean-CATIAing" a VLA and tried to tweak the 747 to fit. Since 747 freighter sales remain strong, they were able to convince cargo carriers to commit to a new model. At that point, offering a passenger variant really doesn't incur all that much additional risk and cost, especially in the early stages.

If Boeing had been unsuccessful in getting cargo operators to buy the 748, I doubt the project ever would have been launched, and would have instead joined the 745, 746, and 74X programs as design studies.


User currently offlineMD-90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 8508 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 12735 times:

Lockheed couldn't make a profit on the L-1011, despite selling 250 frames...

And it was a superbly engineered aircraft that everyone, airlines, crews, and pax, all loved.


User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 12678 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
When you calculate in the launch discounts and the up-front costs of infrastrucure and components, do the first frames of any plane sell at a profit?

Development costs are amortised over x number of frames. What I think they are saying is that when you add the amortised costs, plus the cost to build, plus the contract penalties, they are in the hole.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 4):
Why would boeing enter a market where the maximum size is 300 sales, when there already is a new entrant with 50% of that share ?

They didn't. Airbus entered the VLA market, Boeing has been there since 1966.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 4):
by the time boeing ramped up... the market would be exhausted.

With 250 or so 747 freighters out there, it wont be a problem for Boeing to make money on the 748 with or without passenger sales. The 380 must get passenger sales or they will lose a LOT of money.

New build freighters are 10% more reliable than conversions, which is why they have sold over 50 in the last 18 months or so. New builds just make more money for thier operators, and that means sales.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
If Boeing had been unsuccessful in getting cargo operators to buy the 748, I doubt the project ever would have been launched, and would have instead joined the 745, 746, and 74X programs as design studies.

Yep. Boeing always knew the 747 would end up a freighter, they just underestimated how long passenger models would sell by say 30 or so years. It is a near perfect freighter, which is why the 747 carries half of all air cargo.

[Edited 2006-06-27 22:56:03]


Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineSaturn5 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 12660 times:

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 4):
Why would boeing enter a market where the maximum size is 300 sales, when there already is a new entrant with 50% of that share ?

A380 and 747-8 markets overlap but they are obviously not identical because these airplanes are not identical. The '300' number (or whatever) may apply to 500+ pax. class aircraft only.

By the way, the break-even point for the A380 sales is now 300 airplanes because of the current problems. This number used to be 250.

[Edited 2006-06-27 22:55:16]

User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 12561 times:

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 8):
Development costs are amortised over x number of frames.

Depends on whether you're talking about financial accounting or managerial/cost accounting. For financial acccounting purposes they are largely expensed as incurred. For managerial/cost accounting purposes (in this case measuring/evaluating the financial performance of a long-term project) they are accumulated and amortised over a pre-determined number of units.

[Edited 2006-06-27 23:19:14]

User currently offlineBreiz From France, joined Mar 2005, 1920 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 12406 times:

What is a bit puzzling is that my post named :
Eads Meeting On A380 In May 06 (by Breiz Jun 26 2006 in Civil Aviation)
has attracted little interest while this post on the same subject, but referring to A380 program losses, gets a lot of comments.
Are many members out for the sensational more than the real facts?


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 12, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 12363 times:

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 4):

Why would boeing enter a market where the maximum size is 300 sales, when there already is a new entrant with 50% of that share ?

If Boeing sell only 150 SuperJumbos, they will have made a very tidy profit.

Quoting Saturn5 (Reply 9):
By the way, the break-even point for the A380 sales is now 300 airplanes because of the current problems. This number used to be 250.

This number was 300 before the second delay, due primarily to the change in exchange rate. Now, after the third delay, it is probably in the 400 to 500 range. Further exchange rate movement or more delays could change the numbers again.


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 13, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 12273 times:

Quoting Breiz (Reply 11):
Are many members out for the sensational more than the real facts?

Just like real world journalism, Breiz. Got to package it with a catchy title! E.g., "Minutes of EADS Board Meeting Leaked!"  Wink



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineAirMailer From United States of America, joined May 2006, 481 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 11361 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 13):
Just like real world journalism, Breiz. Got to package it with a catchy title! E.g., "Minutes of EADS Board Meeting Leaked!"

Dude's got a point!!

add 'leaked' to the headline and see what happens!


User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 5224 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 11157 times:

Another link worth looking at is

http://www.ndtvprofit.com/homepage/news.asp?id=257066


User currently offlineWorldXplorer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 11040 times:

There was a previous thread that touched on this topic and the leaked EADS board meeting minutes.

Eads Meeting On A380 In May 06 (by Breiz Jun 26 2006 in Civil Aviation)


User currently offlineHalibut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 10926 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
This number was 300 before the second delay, due primarily to the change in exchange rate. Now, after the third delay, it is probably in the 400 to 500 range. Further exchange rate movement or more delays could change the numbers again.

Zvezda,
Could the fact that Airbus is extremely weak in the mid section affect the break even # on the A380 in any way ? They are now so much more dependent on A380 sales due to the gap in there line up .

400 to 500 is startling !

Halibut


User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 5224 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 10816 times:

What do they mean by loss? My interpretation is that their out of pocket cash expenditures are more than they have sold the aircraft for and that there is nothing as a contribution towards recovering the investment they have in the program or the day to day overheads of the business.
On top of all this they will be forced to pay damages, in cash, if performance guarantees are not met and/or deliveries are delayed. Their negative cash per frame could go on for quite a period. This cannot be quantified because their selling price per unit is not known.


User currently offlineSaturn5 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 10699 times:

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 18):
What do they mean by loss?

I interpret this loss as meaning that they even won't recover all the expenses on this particular aircraft - parts+labor. This is even less than the typical parts+labor+investment(partial)+profit.

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 18):
My interpretation is that their out of pocket cash expenditures are more than they have sold the aircraft for and that there is nothing as a contribution towards recovering the investment they have in the program or the day to day overheads of the business.

This is my interpretation too.


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 20, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10157 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
This number was 300 before the second delay, due primarily to the change in exchange rate. Now, after the third delay, it is probably in the 400 to 500 range. Further exchange rate movement or more delays could change the numbers again.

These numbers look a bit on the high side. If the initial break even was 250 units, to cover development costs etc., during a 6 year span, it is highly unlikely that a one year delay will cost them an additional 60% (400 units) or 100% (500 units). Obviously my guess is as good/bad as yours, but I'm not going to guess as any number put forward would be pure speculation.



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User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21588 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10123 times:

Quoting Breiz (Reply 11):
What is a bit puzzling is that my post named :

It's called a non-descriptive/non-enticing thread topic. Blaming people for not reading it is kind of silly.  Wink



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineGlacote From France, joined Jun 2005, 409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10036 times:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
More importantly, there are rumours floating around from the same leaked minutes that Airbus is looking at restating it's earnings. That's really bad news, if it isn't just a rumour.

I read the minutes and did not see this. Which specific part are you/these rumours referring to?


User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6944 posts, RR: 77
Reply 23, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 9953 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 13):
Just like real world journalism, Breiz.

 Yeah sure

Quoting Halibut (Reply 17):

400 to 500 is startling !

And it's just an estimate, we shouldn't forget. No reason to take that for fact at this point of time.


PH



Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 6 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 9953 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 20):

We'll probably know a lot more once the financials for the quarter ending June 30, 2006 are released.

First, we'll know whether the independent accountants/auditors have required Airbus/EADS to set-up a loss reserve related to the anticipated expenses associated with the program delays. IIRC, after last year's program delay, such a reserve was not required as it was claimed at the time the costs associated with the program delay could be "unwound internally." It seems unlikely this will remain the case.

Second, revised "breakeven" guidance will likely be forthcoming at that time. It seems certain the number will have increased significantly over the former guidance of 300 units.

In any event, the the estimates of what the "wiring-harness imbroglio" is going to cost will be a lot more accurate and firm than the preliminary guidance offered with the announcement of the second program delay on June 13th.


25 Zvezda : I don't see how it would, but I haven't slept in 26 hours. What is your theory? You're overlooking that the estimate was revised by Airbus from 250 t
26 NAV20 : Hardly likely that they're counting in the development costs at all at this stage, DeltaDC9. At the commonly-accepted figure of $US15B., the developm
27 Astuteman : Agreed, and for the first 4 or 5 planes, that should be no surprise to anyone, especially after the delays. What surprises me is that Humbert believe
28 Leelaw : I'll repeat a couple of things I said in response to you in another thread: 1. It's possible SQ's "launch discount" may be front-loaded on the first
29 Joni : Well that is what it says in the article: Airbus parent EADS faces losses on the first of the A380 superjumbos it delivers because of late-payment ch
30 Redcordes : The 380 is a long, long way from being profitable--even if unexpected problems don't show up as it is placed into service. Additionally, current and f
31 Post contains images Halibut : Didn't really have one . That's why I asked you . I was just curious to hear what you had to say about it . Oh , been spending some time in Amsterdam
32 Post contains images Astuteman : Depends whether you're defining "profitable" on a programme or per frame basis. From an overall programme viewpoint, what you're saying makes total s
33 Revelation : From reading the minutes I think they are also including the compensation they are paying out on a per-plane basis in the loss per aircraft calculati
34 Bjornstrom : Lossmaker or not - get it certified and ferry it to SIN. I've got a CRWSTAR1 with 19k unused miles waiting to be used. I wanna be on a A380 SIN-SYD bu
35 DeltaDC9 : Wow, if thats true this is really ugly.
36 Art : Somewhat unlikely that 748-I would get 150 sales and the A380 0.
37 Post contains links Okelleynyc : Here's a link to a group that tried to answer the above questions back in 2001. It's since been updated as of 2004. While it seems one sided, their as
38 DeltaDC9 : Almost as unlikely as Boeing selling more than 50 747s while Airbus sold 0 380s of any type. But they did.
39 Joni : Well, you're reading it incorrectly. The word "marginal" doesn't even occur in the Reuters article, as can be easily established by doing a search. W
40 Post contains images Astuteman : Not "The Gellman Report" again - please.......
41 Post contains images Okelleynyc : That Bad huh?!!! I guess as a newbie, I've gotta lot to learn! Mea Culpa
42 DAYflyer : The A-380 program will likely not break even for some time, since the delays are now resulting with the airlines extracting a lot of blood (money) fro
43 NAV20 : I'm afraid that you're dead wrong there, Joni. Humbert's comments were made at a meeting on May 12, long before the announcement of any delays. The c
44 Astuteman : In all fairness, it provoked some fascinating debate, but it all seems such a long time ago.......... I suppose it's churlish to prevent newcomers fr
45 Post contains images AirMailer : I like the way that you broke that down Astuteman. It makes sense to me, seems like you could use that method to guesstimate the break even point wit
46 AirMailer : Zvezda, Sorry for asking this if this has already been answered in another thread but... The A380 was developed and is built in Europe. Don't the Fre
47 Stitch : Aircraft are sold in US dollars. Also, many materials are probably purchased in US dollars. So Airbus/EADS needs to have US dollars - billions of the
48 Ken777 : Since I only run a one man company I'm not very sophisticated in terms of finance, but I believe that each 380 that goes out the door needs to take ca
49 Breiz : Not blaming anybody, Ikramerica. My point is that some members participating in the threads are not interested by , for example, the A380 itself. The
50 Shenzhen : Whilst I haven't looked at the report in considerable time, it would appear that a few of the points in the report seem to be playing out... such as
51 Post contains images Astuteman : Simple is best (as my wife keeps telling me)
52 Picard : If you think about it in a different way the first 300 frames is at a loss?
53 Ikramerica : No, you are making an ASSUMPTION that this is true, but I was pointing out that your thread title was so mundane, it could easily have been the reaso
54 Ikramerica : If you aren't blaming the reader here, I don't know what you are doing...
55 Breiz : There is a difference, which I'm sure as a writer you will appreciate, between blaming for an action and regretting the action took place. I was expr
56 Astuteman : If you look at the EADS financial presentations, new hedges are in place (from what I can gather they hedge comprehensively on an ongoing basis). How
57 Dallasnewark : Break Even Point---> Development cost - (Number of Airframes Sold * AVG price of sales) = 0. We need also to include in the Development cost, the "cos
58 NAV20 : Shenzhen, as far as I recall the report did not predict lower deliveries - in fact it assumed that Airbus would achieve its planned production rate o
59 Ikramerica : Funny, I thought it was (#Frames sold * (AvgPrice - PerUnitCost)) - DevCosts = 0 What the 5 SIA A380s are going to do is send the AvgPrice LOWER than
60 Post contains links Leelaw : I'm not sure I follow NAV20, that's only the projected production for 2007? See: http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...r+end+to+fulfill+SIA+delivery
61 Joni : Which is still irrelevant to what the margin was when the orders were signed.
62 NAV20 : No, Leelaw - EADS' own press release said that the shortfall would 'knock on' at least into 2008 and 2009 (See EADS site, click on 'Press'):- "A rece
63 Post contains images Astuteman : A step to far on the "spin cycle" this time, NAV20. Not Good. Try 9 deliveries in 2007 25 - 30deliveries in 2008 (a shortfall of 5-9 aircraft from pl
64 Post contains images NAV20 : Astuteman, you can't deny that, so far, Gellman's estimates have proved more accurate than Airbus'. Do you really think that 48 aircraft p.a. is possi
65 DeltaDC9 : I have no idea what you mean here, there is no 'margin' when a product is sold, just a projected margin, you can only determine actual margin after t
66 Joni : Do you really think a wiring issue has permanently cut back Airbus' ability to produce the craft? Good, people's biases are probably what keep this b
67 Stitch : Thanks for the clarification, Astuteman. It makes sense Airbus/EADS would still be well-hedged (since they still have a need for dollars), and that th
68 Post contains images Astuteman : WATCH ME! Airbus know FAR more about what they're projecting to build in the next 4 years than Gellman ever will! It's THEIR plan Gellman projected t
69 Post contains links and images Leelaw : EADS sues over leaked documents Embattled aerospace group EADS has filed a legal complaint over leaked internal documents hinting at problems at the A
70 Post contains images Plane Holland : Airlines choosing Airbus A380 loose 1000 euro in income ! Plane Holland said in a statement earlier this day it will never fly the Airbus A380. He rea
71 AirMailer : I am quite familiar with LSTs (I've even been on LST 1193) but what is a Darring Class destroyer? Thanks.
72 Astuteman : The Darings were the last class of RN destroyer to go into service in WW2. Perhaps more relevant to today, HMS Daring will also be (sorry, is) the na
73 Dallasnewark : You are correct, I didn't word my statement properly, by average price i meant AC-Cost per unit, thanks for correcting
74 AirFrnt : Just a shot in the dark, but with the bond market increasing over here, and the continued strong growth, I suspect that Airbus's hedging might just b
75 Leelaw : One wonders whether the lack of a critical study will be cited as a "problem" by any of the nascent post-mortems.
76 Planespotting : Yes, but the L-1011 had an extraordinary amount of problems, much than most originally designed aircraft. The engine troubles alone were enough to ba
77 Ikramerica : And obviously DevCosts is not a simple item either, but made up of a lot of things including the time value of money, and the AvgPrice and Cost per u
78 Glacote : Just one figure to be added to the other rebuttals: EK almost surely got the largest discount. Their contract was above 7 billions for 43 aircrafts.
79 NAV20 : That'll teach me to try jokes on here, Astuteman. I simply meant that Gellman predicted that the first batches of A380s would be sold at a loss and t
80 Post contains images Astuteman : Or at least that there might be limits....... Don't stop, though - I'd be lost without the entertainment our "intercourse" provides.... Quote:- "The
81 Post contains images NAV20 : Astuteman, I expect that both of us have participated in preparing reports of this kind, so I'm sure you will be familiar with the need to state the a
82 Post contains images Astuteman : Duh Duh (again) Whichever way you cut it, inflation adjusted or not, this statement remains correct. Gellman's report explicitly says:- even if there
83 Post contains links Joni : The Critical Project Appraisal has apparently become a pawn in the US-EU trade spat table, see e.g. http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/10866
84 AirFrnt : Violating a agreement just because you think you have a rhetorical point to score is somewhat undiplomatic.But the point still remains, Airbus didn't
85 Post contains links RichardPrice : Actually the LCA Act 1992 only requires both parties to exchange between themselves information about subsidies and loans covered under the agreement
86 Joni : Are you now referring to the US or EU? The US has also withheld information it should have provided. I don't think anyone who knows something about p
87 RichardPrice : Theres no certainty that everything covered under the CPA is required to be disclosed, certainly the precise cost and sales predictions are not neces
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