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Virgin Blue Looking For Long Haul Aircraft  
User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8445 posts, RR: 8
Posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 13219 times:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...story/0,20867,19660782-643,00.html

Virgin Blue seeks US route fleet
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
July 03, 2006
VIRGIN Blue has taken a significant step towards launching services to the US by asking aircraft manufacturers for proposals to supply up to five long-haul planes by early 2008.
Australia's No2 carrier issued a request for proposal (RFP) to Europe's Airbus and US rival Boeing late last month.

The move to put aircraft acquisition on a more formal footing is the first positive sign for the trans-Pacific plan since a hiatus caused by the ownership battle between Toll Holdings and Chris Corrigan's Patrick Corp put major decisions on hold.

It also means a further potential blow to Singapore's hopes of changing the federal Government's stance on allowing Singapore Airlines access to the lucrative Australia-US route


Article continues

Time for SQ to buy into DJ?

80 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5752 posts, RR: 47
Reply 1, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13199 times:

Ok so what are they going to buy? Boeing will step in with the 777/787 combo while Airbus will undoubtedly offer the A340/A350/A370 series. When will Virgin Blue decide?


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineChicagoOhare From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 71 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13151 times:

If Virgin Blue wants widebodies by 2008 you can forget A350/A370 or 787's.

Perhaps some 777LRs?


User currently offlineAntskip From Australia, joined Jan 2006, 931 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13151 times:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 1):
777/787 combo while Airbus will undoubtedly offer the A340/A350/A370 series

Airbus are in such a mess at the moment - the A340 is uncompetitive, the A350 is history, the A370 not yet even finalized - so what can Airbus offer? It will be Boeing. Maybe a B772ER/B787 combo.


User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8445 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13103 times:

Quoting ChicagoOhare (Reply 2):
Perhaps some 777LRs?

Why would they want a 772LR when a 772ER would do the job at a lower price? Surely there would be no massive advantage inspending 50 - 100 million more (not sure of the list prices) to possibly carry slightly more cargo.


User currently offlineTinkerBelle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13103 times:

772ER's anybody! Wait, will the Australian government allow them to fly this route?

User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4772 posts, RR: 43
Reply 6, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13092 times:

They should put in a serious bid for AC's 2 A 345s as well as some of EKs 20 cancelled A 346HGWs with Airbus if they want aircraft within 18 months time frame.

If Boeing was to be considered then I would rather have them get B 772LRs than -200ERs.


User currently offlineHKGKaiTak From Australia, joined Jun 2005, 1050 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13092 times:

I for one hope they get 777s ... don't forget DJ operates a 100% Boeing fleet already.


4 Engines 4 LongHaul
User currently onlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20542 posts, RR: 62
Reply 8, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13092 times:

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 5):
Wait, will the Australian government allow them to fly this route?

Why not? The only restriction in the bilateral for Australian or American airlines is that new entrants are limited to flights 4 days per week initially.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3618 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13054 times:

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 4):
Why would they want a 772LR when a 772ER would do the job at a lower price? Surely there would be no massive advantage inspending 50 - 100 million more (not sure of the list prices) to possibly carry slightly more cargo.

I could only see that happening if they really needed the range of the -LR, which I doubt they do. Otherwise you're right, a 772ER will do LAX-SYD just fine.



PHX based
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 10, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13054 times:

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 4):
Why would they want a 772LR when a 772ER would do the job at a lower price?

would the 777-200ER even do SYD-LAX/SFO with a full pax/cargo load, especially given the headwinds?

The -200LR should be able to do it without any problems....

Behramjee has some interesting points..they can certainly get the A345's quickly and probably cheap enough...

Those A346's, are they or will they even be built? If so, when can they be delivered?



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3618 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13040 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 10):
would the 777-200ER even do SYD-LAX/SFO with a full pax/cargo load, especially given the headwinds?

The -200LR should be able to do it without any problems....

Behramjee has some interesting points..they can certainly get the A345's quickly and probably cheap enough...

Those A346's, are they or will they even be built? If so, when can they be delivered?

Granted the winds may be different, but range-wise, AA runs ORD-Delhi and it's roughly the same distance as LAX-SYD.



PHX based
User currently offlineTinkerBelle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13025 times:

I thought 772ER has a slightly higher range that the 744! QF use the 744 to do SYD-LAX so why shouldn't a 772ER be able to do it?

User currently onlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20542 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13025 times:

Why is everyone focussing on which planes can do SYD-LAX? All the article says is:

Virgin has had a 10-person team looking at the US route for some time and has been focusing on various city pairs.

It could be anything at the time.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8445 posts, RR: 8
Reply 14, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13015 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 10):
would the 777-200ER even do SYD-LAX/SFO with a full pax/cargo load, especially given the headwinds?

NZ do it from AKL. I would imagine the headwinds encountered would be the same. Granter AKL is probably closer then SYD or MEL.


User currently offlineFlyjetstar From Australia, joined Feb 2006, 951 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 12982 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 8):
Why not? The only restriction in the bilateral for Australian or American airlines is that new entrants are limited to flights 4 days per week initially.

I think thats actually a problem for DJ in that they want to be able to fly daily from the beginning. I think the US and Australia are renegotating that at the moment.


User currently offlineCPDC10-30 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2000, 4781 posts, RR: 23
Reply 16, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 12982 times:

The A340-300 shouldn't be under consideration after AC's experiences trying to get them YVR-SYD nonstop.

A340-500/600 would be the only viable choices allowing nonstop flights AUS-USA that can be delivered in time unless PIA wants to lease them 777LRs that they apparantley can't use correctly.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 17, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 12963 times:

Quoting 777STL (Reply 11):
Granted the winds may be different, but range-wise, AA runs ORD-Delhi and it's roughly the same distance as LAX-SYD.

I guess your right..but I don't know if AA has load restrictions on that route...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineSthPacific787 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 12931 times:

According to the Boeing website, a number of their Aircraft could do SYD-LAX directly (772ER/LR, 744/744ER and even a 762ER with 181 pax in 3 class conf) Now, we are assuming DJ want to do direct flights but initally they may go through HNL with A332 or 763ER which will enable a more economic entry to the service and leave the door open for 787/A350/A370 for direct flights down the track.
On the other side of the coin is that the major shareholder of DJ (Toll Holdings) is a freight company. Does this open an opportunity for 772LR and/or 744?

[Edited 2006-07-03 04:56:58]

User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 39
Reply 19, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 12901 times:

The guidance so far is the same as we've seen from Qantas. The 777-300ER can't do either the Sydney or Melbourne routes with the desired payload, despite the fact that its smaller payload is offset by greater useable range.

I don't think however that this excludes the 777-300ER. They will just have to settle for less than optimal performance, which is precisely what happens with the 744s today. The 777-200LR is not in the running anymore for DJ, but can't be ruled out for Qantas if the right application comes along for routes longer than east coast Australia to west coast US, and everyone has speculated on DFW and ORD to death.

Nor does is the A346 necessarily out of the running. It isn't the jet DJ would want if assessed purely on technical grounds, but at the right price from either maker, they will choose either jet, and settle for uplifting less of a load than they wanted. Godfrey has said on the record that DJ is interested in Melbourne-US routes as well as Brisbane. I can't find him even mentioning Sydney, probably because he seems to choke every time he makes a reference to its management which he has been in dispute with over various commercial issues going right back to late 2000.

I think that if someone came along with slightly used 744s at the right price they'd go for them, but there aren't any on the market, so what they are now looking for is a bidding down process to screw the best possible interim solution from either maker, possibly with a generous clause about being able to hand them back with minimal financial risk to themselves.

More interesting and open to speculation is what comes after the 'interim' fleet. Godfrey has said he really likes the 787 but his board will have time to see how it goes in its test flight program before they have to start negotiating on the final choice of jet for the routes.

There is an interesting inconsistency between his enthusiasm for the 787 and his claims that the 777 doesn't offer enough payload. The latter is bigger. I've sometimes wondered if this gives us a hint that this means there is a 787-3 in his mind, or the use of a fleet of longer range 787s for a much larger network than just trans Pacific down the track.

Looks like we'll get some answers sooner rather than later.


Antares


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 20, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 12750 times:

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 14):

NZ do it from AKL. I would imagine the headwinds encountered would be the same. Granter AKL is probably closer then SYD or MEL.

AKL-SFO is about 800nm less than SYD-SFO 1100 less than MEL-SFO..that's a heck of a lot less of distance to travel....

Quoting Antares (Reply 19):

I think that if someone came along with slightly used 744s at the right price they'd go for them, but there aren't any on the market, so what they are now looking for is a bidding down process to screw the best possible interim solution from either maker, possibly with a generous clause about being able to hand them back with minimal financial risk to themselves.

I would think a 744 would be too big for them this early in the game..

once again, I think Behramjee's quote below has some merit...

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 6):
They should put in a serious bid for AC's 2 A 345s as well as some of EKs 20 cancelled A 346HGWs with Airbus if they want aircraft within 18 months time frame.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 39
Reply 21, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 12695 times:

I'm sure the A346 from at least two sources is being looked at.

As to size, DJ can count on huge support from those who don't want to fly Qantas or UA, and they are legion.

Antares


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 22, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 12692 times:

Quoting Antares (Reply 21):

As to size, DJ can count on huge support from those who don't want to fly Qantas or UA, and they are legion.

no wonder QF is concerned about SQ flying Australia-USofA...they would probably rip the competition.....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineMotorHussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3198 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 12618 times:

Maybe it's time for NZ to re-examine the SYD-LAX route? Codeshare it with SQ and compliment the UA flight and time. QF fly the AKL-LAX route, it's only fair.

Regards
MH



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineAntskip From Australia, joined Jan 2006, 931 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (8 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 12465 times:

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 23):
Maybe it's time for NZ to re-examine the SYD-LAX route?

That would be a great addition (though adding MEL as add-on to SYD-LAX route, like UA do, would be even better!)- but do they have the aircraft to support it? NZ has a very good profile in Australia, and barely seen as foreign (as long as they don't run an Australian domestic airline...)


25 Centrair : If I could choose a destination, it would be SFO. Then one could probably ticketed through onto Virgin America. Would love to see 777-200LRs in one of
26 Lhrmaccoll : Is this to link in with Virgin America? This would mean pacific routes from virgin, a local-usa routes from virgin, and atlantic routes. Thats pretty
27 ANstar : Would they be able to get ETOPS easily for the new airceaft type? Perhaps we will see A346/744 as the initial fleet then 787/A370 later after they ha
28 Cyclonic : Hmm, interesting. As i've said previously, i'd love to a A340-500/600 in Virgin Blue colours. However, I think there may be some 777's lying about in
29 777STL : Maybe because it's a very successful route for the airlines that currently run it, plus there are really only two other US destinations at this curre
30 Post contains images AirMailer : Does anyone think that this puts more pressure for QF to fly into DFW so that they can link into AA's biggest hub? I'm just saying that if QF is sati
31 Lospaziale : I think Airbus A340-600HGW could be the choice... remember that mom Virgin Atlantic has a huge Airbus family, and the owner is the same...
32 SunriseValley : So lets look at the numbers. Thanks to Widebodyphotog and his various charts they look something like this: LAX-BNE 6700nm -200ER Full passenger plus
33 CPDC10-30 : Branson's group currently only owns 25% however they are likely to increase the share.
34 SunriseValley : Who knows what the price spread is between the -200ER and the LR. Whatever it was did not faze AC. The fact that the LR is more economical than the E
35 VirginCrew : I can see Virgin Blue taking on the A340-600's The main reason for this is that Virgin Atlantic & Virgin Blue currently do Cabin Crew exchanges. On a
36 SthPacific787 : I can't see this as a reason for DJ to go with the A346 although they may do for other more fiscal reasons which would have to be start up costs as t
37 Antares : AirMailer, DFW's chances are fading, although anything is possible. The costs of flying through Mexican airspace skew the calculations. And Muraroa At
38 SunriseValley : It is less than 100nm extra to use SAN as a waypoint and avoid Mexico, but I guess that is a more expensive option. The ETOPS207 diagram on Great Cir
39 Gemuser : This is a good point. Do DJ have ETOPS approval for their domestic ops? (MEL-PER requires ETOPS or a detour). From my exprience with CASA and predece
40 Antares : Hi Sunrise Valley, Thanks. Still delaying the sunset. Divert me to Papeete any day, please. Antares
41 AirbusA6 : If SQ get involved, maybe DJ could take some of SQ's 772ERs, won't they be replaced by the 773ERs and 787s?
42 Toptravel : Bring on any competion, we need it across the Pacific. I would expect maybe if they want to start now, the use of A346, then prgress into something ne
43 CX777Fan : A few people have mentioned part-owner, Toll's freight connection. Would 744 combis be an option? Asiana have lots of them at the moment. If their via
44 A342 : The problem is the 744E would be even more payload restricted than all-passenger 744s. In the end your payload could be the same level like A346/773E
45 ANstar : I reckon the likely choice would be the A340-600. If the "rumoured" VS order for A330's eventuates then I'm sure VS will have excess A346 slots they c
46 Post contains images Stitch : Yet that didn't stop DJ from buying the 737NG instead of the A320 as the basis of their fleet. But I do agree that for a 2008 delivery, the A346 prob
47 SthPacific787 : You wanna pay for the gas?
48 Boysteve : Who has sent triple 7's to the desert already? It seems a little crazy what with EK desperate for growth. I even hope BA could use them to replace lo
49 Antares : Stitch, DJ chose the 737NG because Virgin Express first 'loaned' them up to six 737-400s and when they began to look at fleet options, it was much mor
50 Jacobin777 : Interesting analysis...that being said however, long-haul cost will obviously go higher if DJ decides to fly trans-pacific (not including Australia-N
51 Stitch : Part of Boeing's advantage with LCCs is that many of them started with 737s - be they "Original Recipe" or "Classics". So, as [b]Antares[b] noted was
52 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ok..can see where you are coming from.. ...but many carriers have changed their fleet from Boeing to Airbus... U2 didn't change to Airbus with a "fre
53 Antares : Jacobin777, On the financial numbers, we only have the most recent reports to go on, and a major revision will clearly occur after Qantas reports the
54 Post contains images Stitch : So they do. I stand corrected. I should have remembered the shock here in SEA when U2 placed that huge Airbus order after having started with 733s an
55 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : Antares..excellent post.. and thanks for the reply.. Interesting QF doesn't break out their domestic numbers.. ..I agree with the JetStar comments...a
56 ANstar : I'm sure if other operators can turn a profit with the A346 DJ will be able to.
57 Post contains links Melpax : Like the intoduction of assigned seating to Jetstar.......... http://www.jetstar.com.au/pdf/news/20060619a.pdf[Edited 2006-07-05 14:25:49]
58 Art : Talk to A and B to get prices, then talk to AC to get bargain prices?
59 Post contains links Jacobin777 : some more interesting tidbits... fair use excerpt: "Toll acquired 62.2% of Virgin Blue as part of its hard-fought takeover of Patrick Corp. Since this
60 Antares : My feeling is that Toll may set up its own jet cargo subsidiary to remove its current exposure to Qantas via Air Express, as well as gain the best sen
61 Jacobin777 : Being the "National Carrier", I somehow have the feeling QF isn't going anywhere...
62 RichardJF : What sort of annual profit does Qantas need to make to support the capex program?
63 Antares : Qantas claims it can fund its capex out of cash flow. I doubt that claim can be made with the degree of certainty shareholders should expect. I would
64 RichardJF : Thanks I was away for the last few days so didn't see your post
65 VH-BZF : I think this is very strong & somewhat misguided statement! Unfortunately now that Ansett has gone, LCC's,the price of jet fuel/oil and the fall out
66 Antares : BZF, At times Dixon really impresses the market with his focus and aggression for all the right reasons. He has on the figures been enormously success
67 Ha787 : go virgin blue get the the 787 so they could fly internatinal from smaller airports such as Hobart to singapore
68 Unicorn : A few minor but germain points here people. Virgin Blue has been looking at this for two years and talking to the Government about it for at least 12
69 Antskip : QF, like its Australian phone company equivalent, Telstra, and its Banking equivalent, the CBA (admittedly further down the track), is a schizoid ent
70 VH-BZF : I guess Qantas is only trying to protect its market share & whilst EK & SQ enjoy many benefits from their respective Governments (such as rapid depre
71 Antares : BZF, I think that is a fair commentary and common ground. I think Antskip is much on target too. We'd all like to see Qantas prosper, but I think fier
72 Brons2 : What about the Varig 772ER for their Trans-Pac flights? We've all seen the pics of them sitting on the ground along with a dizzying array of other mod
73 Antares : Brons2, the 772ER is a great plane but just doesn't cut it for the Australia-US nonstops other than Brisbane perhaps. Even the 773ER has a problem wes
74 SunriseValley : Antares, it depends on what freight load they (Toll) want westbound. In reply 32 I gave some indicative numbers which would suggest that the -200ER w
75 Jacobin777 : you have to also take into consideration however that UA's 777-200ER's are some of the lowest rated (in terms of specs) -200ERs in market..... AA's o
76 Columba : How are the ties with Virgin Atlantic ? If they are deeply connected the solution of picking up some of EK delivery slots of the A340-600HGW might be
77 Zeke : Correct, and they did advertised for crew last year for this operation. Hopefully this gets off the ground before virign galatica.
78 Post contains images BA787 : Ah yes but remember, their aircraft may well be maintenanced by VS at the repective US Airport which might mean they would sway towards the A340. Id
79 Zeke : In addition to the maintenance aspects you mentioned, the pilots and maybe the cabin crew are to be employed by a different company than that of the
80 N328KF : I think it's best to think of Virgin Group and Virgin Atlantic as a franchise operation, sometimes but not always owning/controlling the entities tha
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