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Richard Aboulafia Speaks On The A350  
User currently offlineN844AA From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1352 posts, RR: 1
Posted (8 years 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8991 times:

Quote:
“It doesn’t have the splash of the 787, but splash is only part of the story,” said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, an aerospace research firm in Fairfax, Va. “Given the circumstances, they’re going after the right part of the market, and they’re doing it in a smart way.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/business/worldbusiness/18airbus.html

So ... is this assessment of an unprincipled, biased hack? If a.net conventional wisdom is true, then I guess this means the A350 is destined to be a huge disaster. Big grin

Anyway, interesting article that includes some commentary from Boeing as well. It looks like Airbus has a potentially formidable aircraft in the new A350. So far it seems like the extra time spent devising specifications was definitely worth the wait.


New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
55 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8920 times:

Good article. This passage merits consideration:

Quote:
Boeing seemed unruffled by the A350, noting it would not enter service until 2012, four years after the 787. While the plane will have a wider cabin than the 787, it will be narrower than the 777.

By trying to straddle too much of the market with a single plane, Boeing said Airbus would wind up with a plane that is less economical for the airlines. �It�s a big chunk of territory to try to cover with one plane,� said Michael B. Bair, who heads the 787 program.

Boeing also noted that the plane would have an aluminum fuselage, not one made of advanced composite materials, like the 787. �It sounds like it�s going to fall short of the available technology,� said Randy Baseler, vice president for marketing at Boeing�s commercial aircraft division.


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (8 years 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8905 times:

Clearly it does, since it agrees with your agenda.

Anyway, I felt a stiff cool breeze from hell when I read this.

N


User currently offlineNudelhirsch From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 1438 posts, RR: 19
Reply 3, posted (8 years 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8813 times:

Interesting is that he hardly speaks anything in that article. Streiff is cited, for not opening financial information, which is no sensation at all, and tons of Boeing people are cited about their opinion on Airbus and the 350-program...

Not a very good article. information level was low, bias and fight level was high, and the 'analyst' Aboulafia, who is not exactly an example for standing above biases, was hardly cited...

This is not meant to fight an A<>B war, rather to discuss the article given...



Putana da Seatbeltz!
User currently offlineAviator27 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8727 times:

Since when is Al-Li not an advanced material? As far as I know, its one of the lightest and best "composite" material there is. Perhaps Boeing's definition of composite materials is only CFRP. I have CFRP all over the interior of my car.

I am no expert but the definition of a composite is the combination of two or more types of materials of different characteristics. There are polymer/ceramic composites and metal/ceramic composites. By structure these are also broken down into two categories, fiber reinforced composites and particle reinforced composites.

The smarts ones in the bunch will figure out which one Boeing is using and which one Airbus is using.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6707 posts, RR: 32
Reply 5, posted (8 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8632 times:

Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 4):
I am no expert but the definition of a composite is the combination of two or more types of materials

Clearly you are no expert; Al-Li would be an alloy, not a composite.

The "composites" in the A350 announced today are also likely to include materials like GLARE.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 6, posted (8 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8632 times:

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
Anyway, I felt a stiff cool breeze from hell when I read this.

Are you sure the breeze was cool Gigneil? Could it be that the heat wave we hear you are having there made it seem cool. So maybe all is still right with the underworld and RA will be back on form presently.

It is amazing how so few tea leaves can be read in such a detailed manner. It seems to me that so far Airbus has managed not to tell us what the fuse will actually be made of, and still less about how it will be made.

I get the feeling that Airbus are probably not going to release some material for a while yet. But I guess they will have to tell potential customers a bit more. Meanwhile back to reading whatever tea leaves that Airbus provides.


User currently offlineAreopagus From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (8 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8535 times:

That NYTimes article gives the prices for the 3 sizes of A350XWB as $186M, $215M, and $242M. Boeing's web site gives the 787 prices as $138-143M, $148-157.5M, and $178.5-188M. It looks like the two ranges barely overlap. The A350 is priced like the 777.

User currently offlineNudelhirsch From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 1438 posts, RR: 19
Reply 8, posted (8 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8513 times:

Quoting Areopagus (Reply 7):
The A350 is priced like the 777.

It is going to give the 777 a hard time, what pricing do you expect? Apart from that, usually Airbus is being bashed for the high discounts, now they are bashed for the high prices nobody pays, what's wrong here?



Putana da Seatbeltz!
User currently offlineKhenleydia From Sweden, joined Feb 2005, 425 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8497 times:

Interesting article. People here are pointing out the lack of details, but in reality, there are no details (or very few) to share. I guess they could have just copied some of the a.net threads and made an article from that.

As for the composites, my guess is that Boeing will enjoy bringing up that Airbus didn't push the available technology to the limit like they did with the 787.

I'm glad they finally announced something and I look forward to seeing the "final" product. I have to say though, from the 2 pictures around, it looks a lot like the 787 does and did. By that I mean, the tail from the frozen version of the 787 and the nose from one of the earlier concepts. The wing looks like a mix of 787 and 747-8. But, I guess when it gets down to it, there are only so many ways a conventional plane can be designed and the laws of physics don't change depending on the company.

KhenleyDIA



Why sit at home and do nothing when you can travel the world.
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9974 posts, RR: 96
Reply 10, posted (8 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8487 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Baroque (Reply 6):
It seems to me that so far Airbus has managed not to tell us what the fuse will actually be made of, and still less about how it will be made.

They haven't told us what the fuse is made of yet, but the let one-or-two drips of information leak through the sieve. I posted this on the "777 minus 7" thread.

A350X composite content is reported as being 45% of total weight (compared to 35% for the "old" A350 IIRC, and 50% for the 787).

http://www.bdtonline.com/business/fe...FRG1.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview

The new A350 will make greater use of composites _ which make up 45 percent of its mass, compared with 50 percent for the 787. It will also offer a more comfortable passenger cabin than its rival's, Leahy said

Regards


User currently offlineKhenleydia From Sweden, joined Feb 2005, 425 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 8424 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 10):
It will also offer a more comfortable passenger cabin than its rival's, Leahy said

I love those types of comments! Leahy wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't say something like that. Besides, I believe that it will be up to the passengers to decide.

I am not a fan of Sales people in general, especially Leahy, but I have spent a lot of time on the A-340s and I look forward to spending time on whatever they actually build next.  Smile

KhenleyDIA



Why sit at home and do nothing when you can travel the world.
User currently offlineN844AA From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1352 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (8 years 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 8424 times:

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 3):
Not a very good article. information level was low, bias and fight level was high, and the 'analyst' Aboulafia, who is not exactly an example for standing above biases, was hardly cited...

 

You complain about Aboulafia's "bias," yet then criticize the reporter for barely quoting him? Is this along the lines of the old "The food was terrible! And the portions so small!" complaint?  

In any event, I thought the article was noteworthy because a.) it is, as far as I know, the first public commentary on the program by that particular polarizing figure, b.) an interesting collection of commentary from various interested parties, and c.) a decent summary of the announcement and its implications. Re-reading it, I can't quite grasp your objections...

[Edited 2006-07-18 08:50:24]


New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 13, posted (8 years 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 8393 times:

Quote:
Airbus is actually aiming at two Boeing jets with the A350: the 787 and the 777, which is larger and can fly very long routes — between Los Angeles and Singapore, for example. In the last year, the 777 crushed the long-range A340 in orders, giving Airbus little choice but to replace it.

Does this mean the A340 replaced or the A350 being replaced by the A350XWB?

Would be interesting if it meant teh A340.



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineKLMCedric From Belgium, joined Dec 2003, 810 posts, RR: 22
Reply 14, posted (8 years 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 8384 times:

One thing I don't understand though. Airbus is planning for a 20% level of
humidity on the 350X. How can this feature be achieved with a alloy fuselage?


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 15, posted (8 years 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 8291 times:

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 8):

It is going to give the 777 a hard time, what pricing do you expect? Apart from that, usually Airbus is being bashed for the high discounts, now they are bashed for the high prices nobody pays, what's wrong here?

He's not bashing, just pointing out the low overlap. I would say there is significant overlap with the 787-9, probably enabled by not making the A350 as wide as was being suggested.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 6):

It is amazing how so few tea leaves can be read in such a detailed manner. It seems to me that so far Airbus has managed not to tell us what the fuse will actually be made of, and still less about how it will be made.

I get the feeling that Airbus are probably not going to release some material for a while yet. But I guess they will have to tell potential customers a bit more. Meanwhile back to reading whatever tea leaves that Airbus provides.

Indeed, a lot of fluff, including music videos, and not much hard information and numbers.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineWoosie From United States of America, joined May 2006, 115 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (8 years 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8220 times:

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 14):
One thing I don't understand though. Airbus is planning for a 20% level of
humidity on the 350X. How can this feature be achieved with a alloy fuselage?

It can be done on any airplane...the question is how to deal with the potential for corrosion and it's affect on aerostructures.


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3379 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8064 times:

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 14):
One thing I don't understand though. Airbus is planning for a 20% level of
humidity on the 350X. How can this feature be achieved with a alloy fuselage?

Bilge pumps?

As for Richard Aboulafia's comment:

“Given the circumstances, they’re going after the right part of the market, and they’re doing it in a smart way.”

I don't see why anyone should call this biased. It sounds like a reasonable analysis from an analyst to me.

[Edited 2006-07-18 10:37:28]

User currently offlineNudelhirsch From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 1438 posts, RR: 19
Reply 18, posted (8 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8064 times:

Quoting N844AA (Reply 12):
You complain about Aboulafia's "bias," yet then criticize the reporter for barely quoting him? Is this along the lines of the old "The food was terrible! And the portions so small!" complaint?

Sorry, could have been clearer on that...

He is an analyst, and the thread title is about him and the 350. Yet he is hardly quoted, the biggest junk of the article is made by the drivel of Boeing sales people...

Can hardly be considered news...

And yes, I think he is biased and not a good source to quote, but the thread title is misleading, as Aboulafia is still knwon as an analyst, I wonder though whifch manufacturer adds more to his paycheck...



Putana da Seatbeltz!
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 19, posted (8 years 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 7932 times:

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 18):
Sorry, could have been clearer on that...

He is an analyst, and the thread title is about him and the 350. Yet he is hardly quoted, the biggest junk of the article is made by the drivel of Boeing sales people...

Can hardly be considered news...

And yes, I think he is biased and not a good source to quote, but the thread title is misleading, as Aboulafia is still knwon as an analyst, I wonder though whifch manufacturer adds more to his paycheck...

-You can think what you want, but he makes his bread and butter as an independent analyst...not a Boeing Kool Aid drinker...if his/his companies analysis are wrong, they won't be in business for too long..

-Maybe you haven't bothered to read some of his comments/analysis during Boeings troubled years a few years ago..he was just as critical with Boeing back then as he is with Airbus right now...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 20, posted (8 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 7596 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 10):

They haven't told us what the fuse is made of yet, but the let one-or-two drips of information leak through the sieve. I posted this on the "777 minus 7" thread.

A350X composite content is reported as being 45% of total weight (compared to 35% for the "old" A350 IIRC, and 50% for the 787).

Mmmm, yes but that link seemed to have died. I just get the feeling that we are about to have a long and probably sterile debate about what the word composite means. And even if it is Al-Li, either you, Astuteman, or Richard Price pointed out that newer methods might permit Airbus to build a lighter structure than the methods used for the A330. The stuff about higher humidity might be a clue that it is not going to be too similar to the A330 - unless the jokers suggesting a bilge pump happen to be correct.

If they are using a sieve, I am not going to see much in the tealeaves!


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2824 posts, RR: 42
Reply 21, posted (8 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7486 times:

Quoting Art (Reply 17):
As for Richard Aboulafia's comment:

�Given the circumstances, they�re going after the right part of the market, and they�re doing it in a smart way.�

I don't see why anyone should call this biased. It sounds like a reasonable analysis from an analyst to me.

Reason and Cheerleaders on A.net have very little to do with each other. Richard Aboulafia has a history of being very accurate, and very provocitive. He plays up what he says, but the core message is usually on base.

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 8):

It is going to give the 777 a hard time, what pricing do you expect? Apart from that, usually Airbus is being bashed for the high discounts, now they are bashed for the high prices nobody pays, what's wrong here?

Call it a 777 competitor rather then a 787 competitor.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 10):
They haven't told us what the fuse is made of yet, but the let one-or-two drips of information leak through the sieve. I posted this on the "777 minus 7" thread.

A350X composite content is reported as being 45% of total weight (compared to 35% for the "old" A350 IIRC, and 50% for the 787).

http://www.bdtonline.com/business/fe...FRG1.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview

The new A350 will make greater use of composites _ which make up 45 percent of its mass, compared with 50 percent for the 787. It will also offer a more comfortable passenger cabin than its rival's, Leahy said

This is really puzzleing. At the risk of offending the A cheerleaders, how does Airbus believe this frame will be competitve with the 787 again? More seat CASM tricks?


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7405 times:

Other industry analysts are beginning to weigh in:

Quote:
Chris Bensick, managing director of GATX Air, a large airplane-leasing operation, offers his take on the A350.

"There's no question Airbus can build good airplanes," said Bensick. "The question is, will they be able — coming so late into the game — to get a significant chunk of the business?"

He said Airbus had definitely made a mistake in not seriously going after the 787 until now.

And the decision to include a rival to the 777 in the new family "is recognition that the 777 has been a great product and that the A340 is coming to an end sooner rather than later."

Here's Marty Olson, International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC) senior vice president, responsible for buying aircraft for the Los Angeles-based leasing giant.

"The 787 has a certain sex appeal to it, with the composite fuselage," he said. "The A350 is more traditional.

"We're very happy to see the new product," he said. "They've created the outline. There's a lot of work to be done."

He believes there's room in the market to sell a decent number of each.

Does Boeing need to respond to protect the older 777?

"The 777 is a very successful airplane," Olson said. "It will continue to be a very successful airplane."

Another senior industry figure agrees to be quoted, provided he is not identified.

The Airbus news conference, he said, "was a lot of show. They had to respond [to Boeing]. I'm not sure they'll be able to fulfill the product."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ospace/2003133769_a350react18.html


User currently offlineSphealey From United States of America, joined May 2005, 377 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7340 times:

The world's large airlines will not, under any circumstances, allow one of the two remaining manufactuers of transport aircraft to drive the other one out of business. If that does happen, they will subsidize a Russian mfgr or Embraer until it has at least 40% market share. There is no way in the world that big buyers could allow themselves to be trapped in a single-supplier situation. I would be willing to bet that even Southwest meets with Airbus regularly and lets Boeing know they are doing so.

sPh


User currently offlineAutothrust From Switzerland, joined Jun 2006, 1587 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (8 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7340 times:

Abulafia should close his mouth and go home, his comment is so stupid with 0.0000 % usable information. banghead 

Quote:

-The plane will have the �widest windows in the industry.
-Humidity in the cabin will be adjusted to 20 percent, in contrast to 15 percent on the 787

That are nice news cant wait this bird is builded and i also think the plane will get some other fiew surprises to make it more attractive.
I can imagine a better lightning system, and maybe other features developed for the a380.
We will have to wait the design isnt even frozen a hell can change.

Btw i think the fuselage will be a mix of composites glare and newest al-li alloys.



“Faliure is not an option.”
25 Post contains images N844AA : Pot? Kettle? But seriously, what do you find so objectionable about the comment? He's providing his initial assessment of the aircraft -- something t
26 Aither : I would say 20% accurate and 80% provocative. He's a general public analyst. He has no chart of his own on his website. He just tell things.
27 Post contains links Leelaw : Actually, the analyst Aboulafia seems more sanguine about the prospects of the A350XWB than some "industry executives" immediately after the announcem
28 Post contains images Jacobin777 : maybe he prefers people/companies pay for his work rather than giving out "freebies" to A.net members and the media......
29 Post contains images Astuteman : That was my thought too Leelaw. Fortunately for me, I've not been one to routinely "trash" Aboulaifa, so I can only say I find his comments on the A3
30 Aviator27 : Wood is defined as a naturally occuring composite material. Try not to be so narrowminded.
31 Jacobin777 : about?
32 FlyDreamliner : Al-Li is not a composite, it's just another metal alloy. It's also substantially heavier than the boeing carbon composites used in 787. A few tons of
33 Post contains images Pygmalion : adding humidity.... without adding weight!
34 FSPilot747 : Is it me or does that look a lot like the 787
35 RAPCON : If there ever is an A.Net convention, we've got to invite this guy and Leahy to the happy hour!!!
36 AirSpare : The level of humidity, as well as the temperature, can be varied, depending on whether passengers are seated in economy, business or first class. Oh y
37 Gigneil : No, it isn't. That's it. Al-Li is as light as and can be lighter than the CFRP tape Boeing is using. N
38 Post contains images Glideslope : Loads of MX Cost.
39 Astuteman : In reality, the fuselage structure weight is as dependent on the METHOD of construction as it is on the material. I'll be interested to see what Airb
40 Jacobin777 : that is incorrect.. 1)CFRP has a lower density than Al-Li (1.5 versus 2.6-2.7)-Mg*m^-3 2)CFRP has a higher Youngs Modulus-(70-200 versus 70)-Gn*M^2 3
41 Elvis777 : Hey Jetflyer, Chill out bro! try one of your famous brews or what have you. hay Caramba, I just dont get you dude. Like, it seems to me that you are p
42 JayinKitsap : A really thin 13 ply spruce plywood makes up the nosecone on all of the Polaris, Posidon, Trident I, and Trident II missiles. The shell is FRP but th
43 Propulsion : The majority of passengers don't really give a monkeys about whether x aircraft is better than y. For most, it simply means being overly squashed int
44 Grantcv : It seems to be eurocopy of the 787. I am figuring that more marketing has gone into this version of the A350 than engineering. Remember how long it t
45 Post contains images TinkerBelle : Who bashed them for high prices??? Well said
46 Post contains images Jacobin777 : listen Jetflyer...when the spokesman for a company comes out in a big way and says "our plane is better than their product one, and will crush their
47 Post contains links Baroque : When the A350 was as fat (or thin) as an A330, Airbus maintained that the difference between Al-Li and CFRP would be "minor". It was suggested here t
48 Post contains images Art : Sorry, must just point out misuse of capitalisation and the relative pronoun. You should have written: "there have been people who are more adept at
49 Baroque : Que? Must get back to Barcelona, late for siesta. Signed, Apostrophe Man.
50 Post contains images Astuteman : I think you misheard - I'm sure I heard him say "peadants".........
51 DAYflyer : I seriously doubt the A-350 is going to kill anything off prior to EIS, and by that time Boeing will have leapfroged it with a 777 sized aircraft base
52 Picard : You think Boeing would have the resources and cash flow to bring a 777 replacement into play around the time of the A350XWB EIS? If they do what abou
53 Post contains images Elvis777 : Hola everyone! Thanks for the kind corrections on my previous posts. Art, you are of course correct, ( My bad) but although it was a nice try I still
54 N844AA : My scientific, wild-ass guess is that it's at least plausible: Launch Y1 in 2009/2010 with 2014/2015 EIS, and then kick off Y3 in 2012 or so. Clearly
55 Baroque : Did you know that your IQ actually rises while you are laughing? No. Well neither did I but it seems a good place to start. Pace vobiscum
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