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The A 350 XWB Impact On A330/A340 Sales?  
User currently offline777ATech From Canada, joined Mar 2006, 30 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 2 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 5209 times:

There are a lot of discussions going on regarding the impact the new A350 XWB will have on Boeing 787/777 sales in the future. My question is; what impact it may have on the existing Airbus A330 and 340 sales?
Your thoughts.

21 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 4 days ago) and read 5120 times:

Quoting 777ATech (Thread starter):
what impact it may have on the existing Airbus A330 and 340 sales?
Your thoughts.

With the A350XWB being 2 years later to the market then the proposed 'old' A350 we might see eventually more A330's sold. There's still 6 years to cover before Airbus can even think of delivering the first A350XWB, meanwhile operators with a Airbus (widebody) fleet might want to stick with Airbus for their immidiate needs (the single order for Air Caraibes, the 3 orders for Afriqiah and the 3 orders that could be announced for MEA are good examples), do also consider that getting 787's instead, before 2011 might also be difficult.

The A330 is also a lot cheaper than the A350XWB will be, and is a slightly different aircraft range and capacity wise. It could live on next to the A350XWB for a while, eventually slightly updated.

Both the freighter (if launched) and tanker versions could bring in a few orders aswell.

As for the A340, that's anyone guess, apart from existing customers placing an extra order it might be little. However, as long as they produce A330's they can produce A340's as they coming of the same line, if I understood this correct.

Mr. Leahy did say that the A340 will eventually be replaced by the A350-1000, but that's still a long way to go...



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User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5053 times:

Quoting 777ATech (Thread starter):
There are a lot of discussions going on regarding the impact the new A350 XWB will have on Boeing 787/777 sales in the future. My question is; what impact it may have on the existing Airbus A330 and 340 sales?

A340 - Dead as a doornail. Maybe a bit of rigor mortis jerking (small orders) but the model is certainly dead.

The 330 mught stick around for a while, but only in the same way the 767 is currently surviving the 787.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25257 posts, RR: 85
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5045 times:
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Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2):
A340 - Dead as a doornail. Maybe a bit of rigor mortis jerking (small orders) but the model is certainly dead.

So sad.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30986 posts, RR: 86
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5038 times:
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The A340 is already pretty much ended. It's like the 767 family - selling to existing carriers because it is available now, is available for good deals, and meets immediate needs.

The A330 has more life in it, thanks to being better then the current competition, but it too will see it's twilight by the introduction of the 787. So for Airbus customers who need planes between now and 2010, the A330 is the choice. For deliveries after that, I expect customers to wait for the A350.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12558 posts, RR: 25
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4952 times:

Quoting 777ATech (Thread starter):
My question is; what impact it may have on the existing Airbus A330 and 340 sales?

Will echo most of the sentiments re: the A340: even VS is considering what to do about their A346 orders, as is EK:

http://www2.airliners.net/discussion...general_aviation/read.main/2881317

http://www2.airliners.net/discussion...general_aviation/read.main/2784827

Leahy recently said he saw another 10 years of A340 orders, and one does have to wonder where he thinks they will be coming from.



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User currently offlineRIX From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1787 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4639 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 3):
So sad

- quite a few more to be built, but I don't think those flying will go soon... (will NW DC9s still be around when the last 340 leaves  Smile?)

End of original Airbus airframe?


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25257 posts, RR: 85
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4608 times:
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Quoting RIX (Reply 6):
End of original Airbus airframe?

I can still remember my first ride in the A300 - Australian Airlines (ex-TAA) from Cairns to Brisbane.

It was one of my pleasantest rides ever, and an old time Australian captain who had an excellent beside manner with the pax:

"We're making good time - the old girl's going flat chat..."

Fun to hear the aircraft referred to as an "old girl" - it was brand new, hadn't been in the fleet much more than three months.

 Smile

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4551 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 7):

Fun to hear the aircraft referred to as an "old girl" - it was brand new, hadn't been in the fleet much more than three months.

Heh. I admit the only A300's I have flown on where AAs, and AA's rather painful economic state when I flew them was more distracting then the old girl.


User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 4356 times:

The A 350 is no competition for the Boeing 787-800 series...Airbus has totally given up the 200-240 seater market with the new A350XWB as the latter seats 270 pax minimum in a 3 class layout.

The B 788 will succeed with no serious threat as it will be the prefered sized aircraft for future A 310/ A 300 and B 767-200/300 replacements which number well over 1500 aircraft combined!!!


User currently offlineVega From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4250 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 1):
The A330 is also a lot cheaper than the A350XWB will be, and is a slightly different aircraft range and capacity wise.

I wouldn't necessarily say a range difference of 2000 nm between the 330-200 and 350XWB is "slight".

Quoting Manni (Reply 1):
As for the A340, that's anyone guess, apart from existing customers placing an extra order it might be little. However, as long as they produce A330's they can produce A340's as they coming of the same line, if I understood this correct.

I'd speculate that at least a few airlines who want the 8K ranges and are willing to accept the fuel penalty, may cause AB to offer the 340/200 as a stop gap for the 350 through 2012.


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4230 times:

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 9):
.Airbus has totally given up the 200-240 seater market with the new A350XWB as the latter seats 270 pax minimum in a 3 class layout.

Perhaps a future A320 replacement might be able to close the gap or significantly narrow the gap.

Quoting Vega (Reply 10):
I wouldn't necessarily say a range difference of 2000 nm between the 330-200 and 350XWB is "slight".


More reason to keep building the A330 then. If the range and capacity is not needed the A330 could still be a good alternative for 'abusing' more expensive A350's.

Quoting Vega (Reply 10):
AB to offer the 340/200 as a stop gap for the 350 through 2012.

That would be a surprise. When was the last A342 build?



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User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4212 times:

Airbus will have a substantial capacity gap between the 320 and 350 line as a result.

User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4187 times:

Quoting Vega (Reply 10):
I'd speculate that at least a few airlines who want the 8K ranges and are willing to accept the fuel penalty, may cause AB to offer the 340/200 as a stop gap for the 350 through 2012.

????

The A340-200 was dead even before the current run up in fuel prices. It certainly isn't going to see any orders, unless Airbus gives them away.

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 9):
The A 350 is no competition for the Boeing 787-800 series...Airbus has totally given up the 200-240 seater market with the new A350XWB as the latter seats 270 pax minimum in a 3 class layout.

It's a nice position for Boeing to be in. Uncontested sales in a high volume market segment can bring plenty of profits if Boeing doesn't see any hiccups with the 787 tech. Boeing can afford to be more aggressive on the larger models of the family where there is direct competition when they are able to spread fixed costs over a much large number of units.

Quote:
The B 788 will succeed with no serious threat as it will be the prefered sized aircraft for future A 310/ A 300 and B 767-200/300 replacements which number well over 1500 aircraft combined!!!

I don't know how many A310s and 762s will be replaced by a widebody. The 787-8 is really somewhere between the 763 and 764, and A306 and A330.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 4069 times:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2):
A340 - Dead as a doornail. Maybe a bit of rigor mortis jerking (small orders) but the model is certainly dead.

Unless fuel prices go back down to $15 a barrell - which is the planes only real issue.

As for the death of the original AB airframe - I can see the A330F remaining on in the same way the the A306 lived for many years after the Pax version packed up and I'd love them to do a A330-800 incorporating the lessons learnt from the first A350 programme in a short-range A300 replacement to be sold at a bargin price.


User currently offlinePADSpot From Germany, joined Jan 2005, 1676 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 4007 times:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2):
A340 - Dead as a doornail. Maybe a bit of rigor mortis jerking (small orders) but the model is certainly dead.

It has been dead before the A350 was announced.

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 9):
The A 350 is no competition for the Boeing 787-800 series...Airbus has totally given up the 200-240 seater market with the new A350XWB as the latter seats 270 pax minimum in a 3 class layout.

You're missing the point. If the operation of the A358X is (in absolute terms) as cheap as the the operation of 788, then nobody would buy the 788, cause you could get a larger airplane with more seats for the same costs. Finally it all comes down to CASM ... in case the A350X can really live up to Airbus' marketing promises, airlines could simply afford lower load factors with their A350X which again translate into more planning flexibility, lower risk and so on.


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3989 times:

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 15):
You're missing the point. If the operation of the A358X is (in absolute terms) as cheap as the the operation of 788, then nobody would buy the 788, cause you could get a larger airplane with more seats for the same costs. Finally it all comes down to CASM ... in case the A350X can really live up to Airbus' marketing promises, airlines could simply afford lower load factors with their A350X which again translate into more planning flexibility, lower risk and so on.

You're right if it costs the same to fly a 280 seat A350 as it does to fly a 240 seat 787 - you've got 40 free seats where any money you take is almost pure profit


User currently onlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4575 posts, RR: 41
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3890 times:

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 15):
If the operation of the A358X is (in absolute terms) as cheap as the the operation of 788

That's a very big if, and in spite of what some of the more ardent supporters for either manufacturer may say, that's something that we're not going to be able to tell either way until 2012 when both aircraft are in service. Really until then, the whole 787 vs A350 argument is, quite literally, academic...

V/F



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User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10026 posts, RR: 96
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3858 times:
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Quoting Behramjee (Reply 9):
The A 350 is no competition for the Boeing 787-800 series...Airbus has totally given up the 200-240 seater market with the new A350XWB as the latter seats 270 pax minimum in a 3 class layout.

The B 788 will succeed with no serious threat as it will be the prefered sized aircraft for future A 310/ A 300 and B 767-200/300 replacements which number well over 1500 aircraft combined!!!

I very much doubt that Airbus will leave this segment uncontested for the next 20 years.


User currently offlineBrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1289 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3802 times:

History has taught us that bigger is cheaper. Even if Airbus leaves the 787-8 market segment to Boeing, that same 787-8 will quickly fade as did the A310 and Boeing 767-200. Larger, similarly capable models but more economical by scale such as the 767-300s and 767-400ER the A330-200 took their toll. We are already seeing a number of 787-8 orders converted to 787-9. We know that the likes of EK and SQ want something even larger than the 787-9 and expect the launch of the 787-10. Airbus is indeed leapfrogging Boeing as they will make the 787-8 not so economical and as the 787-3 is a niche aircraft in all scenarios. The A350 family is offering an answer for an airlines's needs in the 270 (8 abreast...) to 400 (9 abreast) seats and will work in twin with the A380-800 and later A380-900 for those airlines that can benefit from the economics of filling the WhaleJet. With 2 compatible all new products (yet again), Airbus will be covering Boeing's offering that spans on 3 products that are not always so common: the 787s and their fancy hull, the 777 and it's relatively ageing design, and the 747's ancient design, even as it gets a new layer of makeup. The next generation A320 will surely span a different seating offer than the current one, probably ranging from A319 to more than the current A321.

On a sad note, I have to say that I'm not expecting MEA to order the new planes we've been rejoycing about in the near term future.



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User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 3718 times:

@Boeing7e7
"Airbus will have a substantial capacity gap between the 320 and 350 line as a result."

-Boeing as well. The seat-difference between the A321-200 and the A350-800 is the same as between the B737-900ER and the B787-3 and-8...

The A321 offers more seats than the B739ER as the B788 offers less seats than the A358...

So what is the problem?

 Smile


User currently offlineRIX From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1787 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3554 times:

Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 19):
History has taught us that bigger is cheaper.

Then, why not to produce only, say, A321? I wouldn't call A319 a niche player. And forget about one airframe to be successful in such a huge range of seats against a competition that properly addresses different ends of it (330 was not "not so economical" against 777, was it?). As for "ancient" airframes - the original Dash 80 is still on top ("yet again").

Cheers!


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